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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
EBOLA

You know, the thing that cost the Dems three Senate seats and allowed Trump to form a cabinet and appoint a Supreme Court justice. The thing that was no threat to Americans but everyone freaked out because the blacks were bringing it to America and it was a black disease.
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...how the fuck did I go this long without picking up on the racist subtext of the Ebola freakout?
 
Let's say it's 2018 and Trump is at 35% approval.

If Republicans running for, let's say Senate, try and criticize him or distance themselves from him, will he be able to keep his mouth shut? Or will he start attacking any Republican that goes against him due to his ego?

If he does the latter, Republicans are going to be an even more unenviable position going into 2018. Either suck up to Trump and lose the middle, or fight him and lose the base. It's going to be hard to find a middle ground with Trump's loud mouth commenting on things constantly. He would force candidates to either be with him or against him.
 
Rebel Leader said:
Anyone getting 45's scotus pick commercials?

I though he was a judge not a product at wal mart
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They run those all the time during Maddow, along with some book about Trump's secret plan to save America (from Maddow watchers I presume). I'm sure MSNBC is happy to take their money. The Gorsuch ad at least appeals to liberals. No idea what they're thinking with the stupid book.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Not super likely to be honest. But of any red state I could see Montana being one of the first to turn fully on Trump. The Democrats do pretty well there and the Republicans tend to be more libertarian.

Steve Bullock needs to run for Senate in 2020. He's term limited so it's no loss to us anyway.
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...I assumed he was much older than he actually is, yeah he should definitely go for that, winning that would be huge.
 
studyguy said:
Trump won't stay at 30 something forever. Things will change. Betting on it for 2018 is not something I'm comfortable with.
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How does it get better though? If he keeps giving press conferences like he did yesterday and the drip of the Russia stuff keeps up there's not going to be any room for improvement. The press sure as shit won't let up on him since he'll attack them at every turn regardless of what they do.
 
What is Trump going to do to get out of the 30s, though?

The economy is fine, he can't really improve that enough for people to notice

He's terrible at handling terrorist attacks. The terror attack during the primary he actually lost points in the polls.

He's shown no ability to handle natural disasters. The first hurricane he deals with is going to be terrible.

A war would be unpopular. People are much more savvy to bs excuses for unprovoked war. Iraq is still very fresh in people's minds.

He's not going to build his wall. Coal jobs are never coming back. Manufacturing will continue to decline.
 
I'm not convinced people won't get complacent sitting where we are now and it naturally just trending up. I don't mean to be a downer I just need to see mobilization for optimism in the democrats.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
A war would be unpopular. People are much more savvy to bs excuses for unprovoked war. Iraq is still very fresh in people's minds.
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I was listening to David Axelrod interview JD Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, the other day, and Vance brought up how communities with large veteran populations predominantly broke for Trump last year. Veterans who had served under the Bush administration (and I suppose maybe Obama as well) but ultimately became victimized by, and/or resentful of, the same policies that got them to enlist in the first place. Waging a war for any reason other than us being attacked in a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 fashion first, imo, will not engender any kind of good will for Trump voters who bought into his isolationist worldview.
 
Fenderputty said:
This article is saying the Feds have no clue and markets are reacting to expected fiscal expansion that may or may not happen due to the uncertain outcomes in setting fiscal policy because nobody knows the details. He even states the economey isn't really in need of fiscal expansion and that raising interest rates could be a lagging effect. He critiques the targeting of possible tax breaks and explains the uncertainty of trade.
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The article is not saying the Fed (lol Feds) has no clue. Expansionary fiscal policy means individuals will reasonably predict and forecast a stronger economy. The problem is that these policies are poor bang for buck and in Bernanke's opinion the economy may be at max capacity which renders the initiatives in general inappropriate. In any event, the point of sharing the link again is to explain why the positive outlook is justified even though it may be overstated or in this case politically motivated.
 
whyamihere said:
Unlikely.
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It's more likely than winning GA-06. Montana has a history of electing Democrats while voting Republican for president. GA-06, I feel, is turning into the opposite: Democratic voters for President, Republican for the rest. They hate Trump but want a representative that will keep their property taxes low.
 
Trump being at 38 before he starts mishandling crises and before he starts causing people major economic harm and while people still have hope that he can re-open the factories and mines is a very very good number for us, let's just enjoy that the shitlord is viewed as incompetent before he has to deal with passing bills or saving people from hurricanes.

Because when Trump lets South Carolina drown, that will be way too tragic to celebrate or enjoy.
 
welp

but-her-emails-nuclear-holocaust-1485907033.gif
 
studyguy said:
Trump won't stay at 30 something forever. Things will change. Betting on it for 2018 is not something I'm comfortable with.
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You're right, it can only go down.

Liberals and moderates are absolutely not going to just warm up to the guy, but the stratospheric approval from republicans across the board isn't sustainable, as Bush found out.
 
studyguy said:
Trump won't stay at 30 something forever. Things will change. Betting on it for 2018 is not something I'm comfortable with.
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It's the only thing to bet on though. If he somehow starts hitting around 50 in approval, we'll only dent the GOP hold over Congress. Our gain requires his low approval as the first step.
 
Grexeno said:
Racists will never get tired of him, though.
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Racists didn't vote for David Duke and aren't interested in the Trump clone in Virginia because they lack the aura of competence though.

I'm guessing that white supremacists really like white supremacist candidates, but still want basic competence so that if Florida is hit with the big one, the president will be to stop thousands of people from dying.
 
TheLaughingStock said:
The article is not saying the Fed (lol Feds) has no clue. Expansionary fiscal policy means individuals will reasonably predict and forecast a stronger economy. The problem is that these policies are poor bang for buck and in Bernanke's opinion the economy may be at max capacity which renders the initiatives in general inappropriate. In any event, the point of sharing the link again is to explain why the positive outlook is justified even though it may be overstated or in this case politically motivated.
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It's purely politically motivated. Nobody on the republican side wants or knows what fiscal expansion is. They want balanced budgets and debt reduction.
 
I think Trump will bounce back to the mid 40s at some point. But that's likely his ceiling based on polling done the past couple years. He's never really been able to do much better than that.
 
Trump only knows how to throw meat at his base. So he's back to attacking Clinton as he thinks it will resonate with people. Trump has yet to realize he can't be president by just appealing to his base all day. It's a big country and largest populations are centered in the states and cities that hate him.
 
Aaron Strife said:
Not super likely to be honest. But of any red state I could see Montana being one of the first to turn fully on Trump. The Democrats do pretty well there and the Republicans tend to be more libertarian.

Steve Bullock needs to run for Senate in 2020. He's term limited so it's no loss to us anyway.
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Even nationally in presidential elections Montana can turn into a swing state or slightly leaning red state at times if the democratic candidate is good enough and under the right conditions like in 1988, 1992,1996 and 2008.I don't expect trump to win Montana by like 20 points in 2020 if he is still president by then.

Also, trump's approval rating finally managed to drop below 40% on Gallup desite staying static at 40% for awhile. I wonder how low his approval rating can go at this point.
 
BackLogJoe said:
So they just said on cnn that Chaffetz just asked Sessions to convene a grand jury for Clintons emails??
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So rather than investigate the Trump Russia ties he is going to reinvestigate her emails and waste more money. Again, fuck the GOP. They are the worst and make the country as a whole worse for existing.
 
mo60 said:
Even nationally in presidential elections Montana can turn into a swing state or slightly leaning red state at times if the democratic candidate is good enough and under the right conditions like in 1988, 1992,1996 and 2008.I don't expect trump to win Montana by like 20 points in 2020 if he is still president by then.

Also, trump's approval rating finally managed to drop below 40% on Gallup desite staying static at 40% for awhile. I wonder how low his approval rating can go at this point.
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I haven't checked the demographic changes in Montana, but I always got the impression that Montana is the second state in the Rockies to one day become a blue state, after Colorado. It's odd too, since Idaho and Wyoming are far right on the spectrum.
 
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