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[maxcriden]

Pertinent background reading (GAF threads):

Microsoft Studios (& Partners) Current and Future Landscape

Microsoft mismanagement of third party partnerships leaving developers in a bad state?

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As an XB1 owner, this is a bit of a thought experiment I was doing and I was curious what others think. (Full disclosure: I own a Wii U and XB1. I don't own a PS4 due to lack of exclusives that interest me. However, my PS2/3, Wii, Genesis and NES Classic are all hooked up on my TV stand.) I'm taking it as a given from the jump that we all agree Nintendo and Sony have a ton of ongoing exclusive franchises, studios and partnerships.

From Wikipedia, best-selling VG franchises:

Halo November 15, 2001 65 million[42]
Halo is a science fiction video game series created by Bungie Studios and published by Microsoft Studios, which was later adapted to eight novels, several comic series, a graphic novel, numerous action figures, and an anime series. After Bungie Studios gained independence from Microsoft in 2007, 343 Industries took control of the franchise.

Gears of War November 7, 2006 22 million[102]
Gears of War is a tactical third-person shooter video game developed by Epic Games and published by Microsoft Game Studios, revolving about a war between humans and creatures known as Locust in the fictional planet Sera.

Forza March 27, 2005 ~16 million [127]
Forza is a semi-simulation racing video game franchise made for the Xbox brand of consoles owned by Microsoft Studios. A direct competitor to the PlayStation-exclusive Gran Turismo series, Forza is known for its high level of vehicle customization features, including a car vinyl editor. It is divided between two series; the original track-focused Forza Motorsport developed by American developer Turn 10 Studios, and the 2012-debuted open world-focused Forza Horizon primarily developed by British developer Playground Games.

So, what I'm trying to figure out is if these three franchises are of sufficient ongoing success and significance to keep Xbox as a series of consoles afloat on their own. Let's say you can get every other game you can get on an Xbox on PS4 and PC. Let's also say you can get Halo/GOW/Forza on PC as well, but that in this scenario it is no likelier for console players to switch to PC than it is now.

Why did I not include Rare? They have not proven to have massive system sellers for Xbox in the recent past. I think SOT will be successful, but I do not see any indication it will be a massive system seller. Why did I not include Mojang? They make an insane amount of money across platforms so I do not expect a Minecraft 2, if one happens, to be exclusive to Xbox. I also did not include Microsoft Casual Games.

The most recent Halo game have sold less than their previous entries on 360. I can't tell if this is true for Forza and Gears also. But let's assume for this hypothetical that these three series are the only exclusive you will get on the next Xbox system.

If this were to come to pass, do you expect people would continue to purchase Xbox consoles in the numbers they currently do?

Is there any expectation these are not series that will stand the test of time? (Halo debuted in 2001, Forza in 2005 and Gears in 2006.)

Is this the direction you see Microsoft going?

I don't know if there is much purpose to this experiment or if it is a worthwhile though, but, it does seem like many of the other exclusives crumble or don't draw massive sales, so, simply in terms of system appeal, I'm curious if this is the path Xbox is headed down, and if it will make for attrition and eventually an exit from the console space.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

No

 

[KingBroly]

Nope

 

[Kolx]

I doubt most of the people who bought XOne did because of Xbox first party lineup other than those so yes it'll still be viable.

 

[_Ryo_]

No?

 

[BenTheLazyGamer]

For some people, maybe. For me? No.

 

[LukasTaves]

No, but they never did, don't see why this is even a reasonable scenario to discuss.

 

[Mihos]

For me it isn't viable with them. My Xbox hasn't been hooked up since I put a PC on the projector.

I still play my PS4 and one or two Wii Games, but everything else is retro or PC

 

[Sinfamy]

I already saw Xbox as the Forza, Halo and Gears console, so no.

 

[GlamFM]

I would buy an XBOX only for Forza, but since they are bringing all of their stuff to PC I don´t have to.

 

[Nightengale]

... Yes? Kind of.

I mean, I don't expect those games to be system sellers in the prime of their heights at the 360 era ( except Forza that's stable )

But if it's still going to have 99% of western third-party support I think the brand is strong enough to be viable.

Also, does that means we'll get to see broader stuff like a Halo RPG, or a Gears Visual Novel?

 

[TokiDoki]

No , because one or two of these titles are deteriorating .

 

[RichiRamjag]

Not to me. I like forza and gears, but i don't plan on buying either again unless they're amazing as they're not really great genres for me. Halo has one chance left before I'm done though.

Xbox gave me some great gaming memories with halo, but they also gave me different stuff like weird ass morrowind and shenmue II too.

 

[Quirah]

well no

 

[Nachtfalke]

Bought my XO for Scalebound (Still mad about this), Quantum Break, Ori and D4. Halo, GOW and Forza gives me nothing. So my answer is no.

 

[Chris1]

Dunno. Technically speaking xbox would be fine but the "xbox has no games" would kick in and add a lot of negativity and hurt xbox sales.

 

[Space_nut]

Won't happen plain and simple

 

[Rad-]

Maybe but the console's performance to price ratio would have to be really good versus competitors.

 

[BriGuy]

Don't they kind of coast by with those already? Exclusives don't matter as much as they used to, and as long as they foster their Xbox Live ecosystem and keep strong third party support, they'll be fine.

 

[Inuhanyou]

For people who support those types of investments by platform holders? Of course not.

But for those only interested in western third party AAA games? Yeah. Since that's all they cared about to begin with along with the 3 first party franchises.

People need to realize that the OP's scenario is basically the case right now, and Xbox still has a lot of players who just don't care about gaming outside of a very limited bubble.

 

[SolidChamp]

They need stronger first-party support like yesterday. They're barely viable now.

 

[Spades]

For people that care about Halo/Gears/Forza, of course.

Lots of people still use Xbox to play multiplatform games, you know.

 

[archnemesis]

Those franchises aren't for me and the lack of exclusives, and the large overlap with the PS4 and PC libraries, is the reason I'm not an Xbox owner. If you don't want to play games on Windows then an Xbox is still a pretty good system.

 

[JimiNutz]

Halo (including Halo Wars and other spin offs)
Forza (and Forza Horizon)
Gears of War
Killer Instinct

Those four franchises alone provide the X1 with exclusive FPS, RTS, TPS, Racing Sim, Arcade Racing and Fighting.

Throw in Rare games (Sea of Thieves looks decent) and the old wildcard like Crackdown and that's a decent enough line up - third parties can provide the rest and probably sell more consoles than any first party games will.

People need to realize that the OP's scenario is basically the case right now, and Xbox still has a lot of players who just don't care about gaming outside of a very limited bubble.

Yep. I have a core group of friends at work (9 people in total) that only really play Halo and Forza. Now and then they play a big third party game like GTA V, FIFA or Battlefield 1 but for the most part they just play Halo and Forza all year around and are perfectly happy that way.

I actually know more people like this (that only play one or two games) than I do hardcore gamers that play multiple games and genres like on GAF.

 

[hanspampel]

even without ANY exlusive game, Xbox would still be viable

 

[Outrun]

Luckily, they don't...

 

[twobear]

There presumably DOES come a point, if they were to do this (and I don't think they will), where the money made after running and supporting their own platform with the userbase that's interested in only having these three exclusive franchises is less than the amount of money they'd make from only making these franchises but on multiple platforms, so I don't see it.

 

[RichiRamjag]

Luckily, they don't...

That's why there's an "if" right there at the front of the question. 😘

 

[Kssio_Aug]

I'd certainly happily keep my Xbox One. But honestly, I'm not sure if I would buy their next platform. In that case I'd prefer to upgrade my PC instead, since I like PC gaming too.
I don't like Windows Store, but for only 3 or 4 IP's I could open an exception.

 

[TylerDurden4321]

There are still a lot of people out there who have their friends list on Xbox and don't care about migrating all together to Sony just because of the one or other exclusive.

What exclusives that might lure the average Xbox gamer bro over to Playstation does Sony even have? Maybe the Naughty Dog games and that's about it.

What's probably more appealing to those people is a high-end PC that they can also couch-game with and with play-anywhere they could still play with Xbox friends...
but... once they all have migrated to PCs though, well... I don't think Microsoft has a good answer for that right now.

 

[Outrun]

Halo (including Halo Wars and other spin offs)
Forza (and Forza Horizon)
Gears of War
Killer Instinct

Those four franchises alone provide the X1 with exclusive FPS, RTS, TPS, Racing Sim, Arcade Racing and Fighting.

Throw in Rare games (Sea of Thieves looks decent) and the old wildcard like Crackdown and that's a decent enough line up - third parties can provide the rest and probably sell more consoles than any first party games will.

And in Ori, you have a nice Metrovania game.

KI gives you a nice fighting game.

 

[batman2million]

I doubt it, especially with them moving most of their games to PC.

 

[Outrun]

That's why there's an "if" right there at the front of the question. ��

Why ask a theoretical question that posits MS offering less than they do now?

It is because there is an agenda, isn't it? Those threads cited are shitshows and console warz under a thin veneer of discussion.

 

[Spades]

If you don't want to play games on Windows then an Xbox is still a pretty good system.

Or have no interest in the Sony exclusives.

 

[Inuhanyou]

even without ANY exlusive game, Xbox would still be viable

I also agree with this. Xbox has essentially been conditioned to be a brand, but by and large it feels like MS doesn't even need to pay lipservice to that any more. All they need is to market western third party AAA games on their platform and they will get sales from a significant percentage of users.

I mean look at 360. That's all they largely did for the latter half of the gen and they crushed the competition in America from their marketing alone

 

[Kill3r7]

You just selected their 3 best selling franchises. Of course it is a viable console. That's like saying is Playstation a viable console if it only has ND, GT and Ratchet? Or Nintendo if they only make Mario/Zelda/Pokémon?

 

[RichiRamjag]

I'd certainly happily keep my Xbox One. But honestly, I'm not sure if I would buy their next platform. In that case I'd prefer to upgrade my PC instead, since I like PC gaming too.
I don't like Windows Store, but for only 3 or 4 IP's I could open an exception.

Best choice I made was to get over myself and check out some of the PC indies that people were talking about in that ps plus January thread. Been playing more games on the PC lately than ever.

 

[ethomaz]

Hummm it always like that before and it sold great with 360.

 

[Kareha]

As a PC only gamer atm Im cool with those.

 

[nynt9]

I think there's a core contingent of a few million players that would stick with Xbox no matter what. But given the state of competitors, there is little enticement for someone to become an Xbox gamer at this point if they're not already one. So their core demographic isn't likely to grow if they follow along this path.

 

[JimiNutz]

And in Ori, you have a nice Metrovania game.

KI gives you a nice fighting game.

Yeah Ori is another one and I also forgot about Minecraft which, although not exclusive currently, is entirely owned by MS.

 

[jdmonmou]

Just having 3 exclusives is not healthy for a console. The Xbox brand would die pretty quickly if it only had 3 exclusives to carry it. And there is so much competition in those genres (FPS, third person shooter, racing) that most people won't even miss those games. For Halo there's CoD, BF, Titanfall, etc. For GoW there's Tomb Raider, Uncharted, etc. For Forza there's Gran Turismo, Dirt, etc.

 

[RedSparrows]

But this is what they do anyway lolololol

#nofucksgiven

 

[Movalpolos]

Both Halo and Gears have taken a dive. Forza is the only one that continues be quality.
The answer is no.

 

[Wonko_C]

To me it's already not viable. The Xbox 360 was my favorite console of the generation, then they launched kinect and it all went into a downward spiral: Original Microsoft franchises became more sparse, they stopped pursuing Japanese third party support, began advertising its next console as a TV device with an always online requirement. And though of the 3 franchises I like Forza a lot, I'm not missing it at all for not having an Xbox One. And I could always get FH3 on PC if I ever upgrade it, which as old as it is, can run Killer Instinct pretty well, which was the one exclusive I couldn't really live without.

I am always open to coming back to Xbox but they need to be as strong as they were in the first half of the Xbox 360's lifecycle.

 

[RichiRamjag]

Why ask a theoretical question that posits MS offering less than they do now?

It is because there is an agenda, isn't it? Those threads cited are shitshows and console warz under a thin veneer of discussion.

Ask the OP. It's was the question nonetheless lol.

The rest of your post is rich after reading your output the past couple of days. I'd question the agenda of someone outright ignoring the original question to try and stir up some shit.

 

[Diddy Kong]

We'll see how the Scorpio does eh?

 

[Outrun]

I think there's a core contingent of a few million players that would stick with Xbox no matter what. But given the state of competitors, there is little enticement for someone to become an Xbox gamer at this point if they're not already one. So their core demographic isn't likely to grow if they follow along this path.

Good points,

But what if MS goes high on specs, ensuring that the best versions of FIFA, Madden (the big hitters) are always on the Xbox eco-system?

I loved Sunset Overdrive... Nobody bought the bloody game though!

 

[Kssio_Aug]

Hummm it always like that before and it sold great with 360.

As I said in other thread, while partially true, that wasn't exactly the case. With X360 they had Mass Effect for 5 years, Alan Wake for 2 years, Ninja Gaiden 2 from Itagaki, Dead Rising 1 and 2 exclusivity, Crackdown 1 and 2, Fable 2 and 3, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Viva Pinãnta. They started out past gen pretty damn well in terms of IP diversity, so their advantage was justifiable.

Also, Gears of War was a very successful IP that happened to be created on X360.

But I'm pretty sure that keeping Halo / Forza / Gears trio and one thing or another coming once in a while is enough to keep Xbox sustnainable during some time. But not enough to call a decent number of new players, and not really enough for me in a long period basis.

 

[Crayon]

If it had nier and svf, sure. I like gran turismo but forza makes a good substitute. I think horizon zd looks great but I could just play it (idk. ten hours?) at a friends house or something some day. I more concerned about all the random games that don't come out on it. And for me that would be nier and sfv.