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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

Welfare said:
I would think the launch of the XB1S would give this month's prediction thread some more activity, but it just feels dead.
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The change in the data format has done far too much damage for any launch to repair.

That being said, the Neo/Slim/VR could give this a kick since they are bigger juggernauts for the next three months.
 
Yeah, outside of this thread, many think NPD is actually dead. The last two proper NPD threads have been non-events. Historically, this month's prediction thread is in-line with 2009 and 2010's threads (just after 360 Slim in 2009 and 6 years ago, which feels like a gen nowadays), though.
 
donny2112 said:
Yeah, outside of this thread, many think NPD is actually dead. The last two proper NPD threads have been non-events. Historically, this month's prediction thread is in-line with 2009 and 2010's threads (just after 360 Slim in 2009 and 6 years ago, which feels like a gen nowadays), though.
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Another problem is a sort of lack of things to talk about right now.

I could keep reporting on the fact that the 3DS has been perpetually sold out on Amazon all month and that the new bundle is but a memory now, but that's about it. Or we could talk about how the PS4 has slowly slipped down the charts on Amazon... heck both hardware sets have slipped surprisingly far down as far as Amazon is concerned.

... but its such a small % of the market that outside of correlation analysis, is kind of a toss up on how valid or representative it truly is or isn't. It'd be great if we had some info slipping to us from GameStop.

I guess we could highlight the fact that AoT and GE2 basically cratered (or were outright non-existent) on Amazon? Deus Ex:MD also really does seem to be doing very similar to what it did in UK, ie. under-perform substantially. We haven't heard a positive peep from SE with regards to title. (Is it going to reach that 3million in a healthy-full-price fashion or is it going to struggle?)
 
It's funny, discussions about NPD are severely damaged in the moment when we have numbers provided by Aquamarine with NPD's sanction. Data is available, but most people don't even know it.

I guess that NPD is happy with this, so be it if that means that Aquamarine will be able to continue providing some data.
 
allan-bh said:
It's funny, discussions about NPD are severely damaged in the moment when we have numbers provided by Aquamarine with NPD's sanction. Data is available, but most people don't even know it.

I guess that NPD is happy with this, so be it if that means that Aquamarine will be able to continue providing some data.
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What's fun is that right now we get even more data than before thanks Aqua lol.
 
I'm back after two missing months :(

PS4 - The sales take a big hit in last months maybe because Sony shipment is tiny due the imminent release of Slim and Neo... this will be the MS month btw.

XB1 - The biggest month for Xbone this year (not in terms of sales but in terms of advantage of competition).

Nothing to say in special about Wii U and 3DS.

Hardware

[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 230k
[WIU] 20k
[3DS] 150k

Software

Madden NFL 17 > 350k
No Man's Sky > 300k
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided > 250k
The King of Fighters XIV < 100k

Edit - Fixed Deus Ex and Madden numbers.
 
Vena said:
Another problem is a sort of lack of things to talk about right now.

I could keep reporting on the fact that the 3DS has been perpetually sold out on Amazon all month and that the new bundle is but a memory now, but that's about it. Or we could talk about how the PS4 has slowly slipped down the charts on Amazon... heck both hardware sets have slipped surprisingly far down as far as Amazon is concerned.

... but its such a small % of the market that outside of correlation analysis, is kind of a toss up on how valid or representative it truly is or isn't. It'd be great if we had some info slipping to us from GameStop.

I guess we could highlight the fact that AoT and GE2 basically cratered (or were outright non-existent) on Amazon? Deus Ex:MD also really does seem to be doing very similar to what it did in UK, ie. under-perform substantially. We haven't heard a positive peep from SE with regards to title. (Is it going to reach that 3million in a healthy-full-price fashion or is it going to struggle?)
Click to expand...

So did the Xbox One S bundles at the same time (I've just realized that's what you meant by "both hardware" ?). One of them (the Madden 1 To bundle) is completely out of the top 100. And while the PS4 slowdown can be easily explained, I don't think the same can be said about the Xbox One S.

Currently on Amazon :

#39 Xbox One S [500 Go]
#44 PS4 only 9 left in stock
#56 PS4 + Black Ops III only 2 left in stock
#78 Xbox One S [2 To] in stock on september 9

The Xbox One has obviously and easily won August (the opposite would be a little shocking) but since one week the PS4 is actually holding surprisingly well considering what's coming in two days.
 
A month in and we are already seeing xb1s with games/1 yr live subscriptions/gift cards/extra controllers bundled in for the same price. Either they are not moving in numbers they want to move or trying to sell as many as they can before ps4s/neo. It would be interesting to see how much profitable they are at the 299 price point for the 500gb model and if they have leg room to go even lower or if they are just taking a loss.
 
ethomaz said:
I'm back after two missing months :(

PS4 - The sales take a big hit in last months maybe because Sony shipment is tiny due the imminent release of Slim and Neo... this will be the MS month btw.

XB1 - The biggest month for Xbone this year (not in terms of sales but in terms of advantage of competition).

Nothing to say in special about Wii U and 3DS.

Hardware

[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 230k
[WIU] 20k
[3DS] 150k

Software

No Man's Sky > 300k
Madden NFL 17 > 250k
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided > 150k
The King of Fighters XIV < 100k
Click to expand...

I would be shocked if Madden was under 500k. NPD is its primary market.
 
Xenoflare said:
The change in the data format has done far too much damage for any launch to repair.
Click to expand...

There's been no change at all to the hardware data format.

The only changes are to how software is reported.

The numbers just come out a week before the press release, so it's old news by the time the thread goes up.

That, and because very little of interest is going on...

But there was that big thread on 3DS leading hardware one month and tons of posters saying... Interesting... things about it

But for a huge percentage of posters, interest in NPD revolves solely around PS4 vs Xbox One hardware, and given the state of things, that's a really boring interest to have at this point in the gen.
 
sense said:
A month in and we are already seeing xb1s with games/1 yr live subscriptions/gift cards/extra controllers bundled in for the same price. Either they are not moving in numbers they want to move or trying to sell as many as they can before ps4s/neo.
Click to expand...

I think it's the latter. August is usually a slow month for console sales so it would make sense to me for MS to try and attract as many people as they can to the S model before Sony releases their new PS4 models.
 
Kill3r7 said:
I would be shocked if Madden was under 500k. NPD is its primary market.
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I could not find numbers for Madden 16 so I just guessed it was bigger than 250k.

Chobel said:
So what are the chances BF1 outsells CoD:IW? This beta of BF1 is doing some exceptional numbers.
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Close to zero :D

The beta numbers are exceptional for BF franchise but rater low compared with others big titles.

BTW I have a feeling this BF will sell less than BF4 (that already sold less than BF3).
 
Chobel said:
So what are the chances BF1 outsells CoD:IW? This beta of BF1 is doing some exceptional numbers.
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Id say zero. As much as I don't like packaging MWR with IW, I have a feeling that it's gonna work in getting people to not only buy IW but the $80 version
 
Slim Neo launch will heighten the thread back up...

October/November and especially December should see a lot of warriors and genuinely interested sales peeps light up the thread again, don’t worry guys.
 
Jarod McChicken said:
So did the Xbox One S bundles at the same time (I've just realized that's what you meant by "both hardware" ?). One of them (the Madden 1 To bundle) is completely out of the top 100. And while the PS4 slowdown can be easily explained, I don't think the same can be said about the Xbox One S.
Click to expand...

Yes, as you later noticed, when I said both I meant X1S and PS4.
 
Primethius said:
I'm gonna narrow that down and say KoF XIV is gonna be ~30k.

Deus Ex: Mankind Divided at ~500k.
Click to expand...

That would double Deus Ex: Human Revolution launch sales (244,000)

I have checked past Metroid sales and at least Metroid Prime: Federation Force won't have the dubious distinction of being the lowest-selling entry during its launch month. Lifetime sales will be a more interesting battle and I wouldn't bet my money on Metroid Prime: Federation Force.

Code: 
[Aug, 1987] NES Metroid (Nintendo) - No data
[Nov, 1991] GB Metroid II: Return of Samus (Nintendo) - No data
[Apr, 1994] SNES Super Metroid (Nintendo) - 58,000
[Nov, 2002] GCN Metroid Prime (Nintendo) - 363,389
[Nov, 2002] GBA Metroid Fusion (Nintendo) - 199,723
[Feb, 2004] GBA Metroid: Zero Mission (Nintendo) - 151,807
[Nov, 2004] GCN Metroid Prime 2: Echoes (Nintendo) - 192,332
[Oct, 2005] NDS Metroid Prime Pinball (Nintendo) - 6,288
[Mar, 2006] NDS Metroid Prime: Hunters (Nintendo) < 130,000
[Aug, 2007] WII Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Nintendo) - 218,100
[Aug, 2009] WII Metroid Prime Trilogy (Nintendo) - No data
[Sep, 2010] WII Metroid: Other M (Nintendo) - 173,000
[Aug, 2016] 3DS Metroid Prime: Federation Force (Nintendo)
 
Bruno MB said:
That would double Deus Ex: Human Revolution launch sales (244,000)
Click to expand...

I don't know if we can safely assume that Mankind Divided will open up over (or potentially even near) 200k at this point. The weak opening in the UK is not encouraging.
 
We can add the red 2DS to sold out on Amazon, lol. (Oh looks like all the 2DS are actually sold out at 79.99$.)

Ryng_tolu said:
Madden > 1m
No Man's Sky < 500k
Deus Ex < 150k
King of Fighters - 25k
Metroid - 15k
Click to expand...

Man I thought I was being pessimistic on Deus Ex but it seems I was actually being optimistic!
 
People are overestimeting COD this year.

Call of Duty Black Ops III sold an estimate of 22 million by end of March 2016. Using some estimate from NPD and GFK, it has likely sold something like >3 million in the first 3 months of 2016, which mean in 2015 it probabily sold less than 19 million.

If Black Ops III sold those numbers, you can be sure Infinite Warfare will sell less, in my opinion Infinite Warfare won't break 15 million in 2016.

It will still outsell Battlefield 1, but is gonna be close, like: 15 million > COD > BF > 10 million

And Pokémon Sun/Moon will outsell both :p
 
sense said:
A month in and we are already seeing xb1s with games/1 yr live subscriptions/gift cards/extra controllers bundled in for the same price. Either they are not moving in numbers they want to move or trying to sell as many as they can before ps4s/neo. It would be interesting to see how much profitable they are at the 299 price point for the 500gb model and if they have leg room to go even lower or if they are just taking a loss.
Click to expand...
IHS said the BOM on the 2TB SlimBone was $324, so they're probably breaking even on the 500GB model, before they start bundling games, Gold, etc. So yeah, they're taking a loss to move them.
 
sense said:
A month in and we are already seeing xb1s with games/1 yr live subscriptions/gift cards/extra controllers bundled in for the same price. Either they are not moving in numbers they want to move or trying to sell as many as they can before ps4s/neo. It would be interesting to see how much profitable they are at the 299 price point for the 500gb model and if they have leg room to go even lower or if they are just taking a loss.
Click to expand...
Links to these deals?
 
ethomaz said:
Software

Madden NFL 17 > 350k
Click to expand...

Wait, what? That's would be the biggest flop of all times.

Madden easy sells 1/2 million first NPD, depend the release date, if is end of August then it usually sells barely over one million because 1 week or two, if is starting September it sells even close / over 2 million.

The record was Madden 13 first month was 2.55 million, Madden 15 (the most recent Madden with numbers) did 1.1 million in one week.

ethomaz said:
I could not find numbers for Madden 16 so I just guessed it was bigger than 250k.
Click to expand...

....???

Second month was bigger than MGS V (which did almost 800k), and first month barely 250k?
 
 
~4 hours left to predict for August's NPD! The title is incorrect, but the text of the OP has had the correct date since just after posting the thread.
 
How can MS keep doing all these deals non stop? They should be losing shit ton of money, and while I don't doubt they'll be profitable eventually, the profits are sure as don't look they're coming in short term.
 
You don't know how much the system costs now or what their arrangement(s) are with the retailers. Can't really say they're losing a ton of money without that information.
 
Chobel said:
How can MS keep doing all these deals non stop? They're losing shit ton of money, and while I don't doubt they'll be profitable eventually, the profits are sure as hell aren't coming in short term.
Click to expand...
I mean does MS even have anything to do with EBay deals or what Newegg does? Newegg always seems to have multiple games bundled with Xbox consoles on ebay
 
donny2112 said:
You don't know how much the system costs now or what their arrangement(s) are with the retailers. Can't really say they're losing a ton of money without that information.
Click to expand...

The bold part is what I'm interested in, in normal circumstance they should be losing a lot revenue.

Edited my previous post, it looked a bit "concern"-y
 
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