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Can the Xbox become the iPhone?

I feel like we've discussed this to death in the other thread, but basically, no. At least, not in the way most people are thinking of. Xbox couldn't pull this off as a closed-box platform. They would have to be wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more open, and depending on what sort of sales they could pick up, they may end up losing support for the new models unless they can get the userbase to move over.

Considering it took them over 2 years to hit 20 million, I don't think that userbase is going to convert to a new piece of hardware anytime soon. And if we did get 5-10 million core Xbox users to go ahead and buy the new machine within the first 12 months, those are just users who are no longer purchasing software on their old box that I then have to continue supporting. It won't work.
 
Lol, the Xbox can become a console that keeps the same OS, architecture and APIs. That's all MS meant. 360/PS3>XB1/PS4 was a massive shift. Different OS and architecture. We won't see that for XB1. People who think we'll see a new XB every 2 years are crazy.
 
I don't think there will be a revision. There will just be an Xbox branded PC, likely several. These will be from existing PC manufacturers. We will see an Acer Xbox, an Alienware Xbox, etc.
 
The cycle with relation to the period between refresh is important, every 3 years is a better sell to me than every 1 or 2.

3rd year is usually when the consoles start to suffer.
 
No. The IPhone has widespread appeal outside of America.

Even I felt that.

@topic,
No. Not everyone buys an iPhone every year, that's for sure, but there's people that buy in two or three years the next one. For consoles, people buy and stick with them for like five years or more
 
please no. i want to play a certain game in a certain old hardware. if they stop doing having consoles which have at the end of the gen maxed out games... well then iam out.
 
The cycle with relation to the period between refresh is important, every 3 years is a better sell to me than every 1 or 2.

3rd year is usually when the consoles start to suffer.

I'm sorry - suffer in what way? Year 3 is typically when we see the fruits of developers gaining mastery over writing specialized code towards a particular piece of hardware. In fact, games tend to look better & better on consoles as years go by. Will there be drawbacks? Absolutely. But part of the benefit of writing code towards a fixed box for a long period of time is seeing how much power you can truly wring out of it.
 
I think that's the future of console, Microsoft will just be the first company to do that, actually Nintendo already did that with the New 3DS but Nintendo is a case apart...
Though for sure upgraded consoles won't be released every year like instead happens with Smartphones, perhaps every 2 or 3 years is the way to go
 
I'm sorry - suffer in what way? Year 3 is typically when we see the fruits of developers gaining mastery over writing specialized code towards a particular piece of hardware. In fact, games tend to look better & better on consoles as years go by. Will there be drawbacks? Absolutely. But part of the benefit of writing code towards a fixed box for a long period of time is seeing how much power you can truly wring out of it.

With relation to a lot of multiplats performing badly, framerate start to drop and the gap starts to increase between PC and console versions.

1st party does really start to pay out around that Mark, and in this scenario full backwards and forwards compatibility is a must and assumed.
 
Sure, why not, people went crazy when it launched in Japan.

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Ok, seriously, we all know how it really went, it struggled outside US on Day 1 and annual updates wont do XBOX any good. It's not an iPhone and never will be. Same goes for PS4.
 
I think that this approach will work well for Microsoft. If both Xbox and PlayStation adopts the incremental upgrade approach then the winner will be the one with the better service. Microsoft has infrastructure deployed all over the world and (argumentatively) has more software engineers.
 
Sure, why not, people went crazy when it launched in Japan.

2643762-5876070271-H1wpr.jpg


Ok, seriously, we all know how it really went, it struggled outside US on Day 1 and annual updates wont do XBOX any good. It's not an iPhone and never will be. Same goes for PS4.
Like the iPhone model does not equal exactly the iPhone model.
All this would be is faster refreshes, or shorter generations. Instead of 8 years it would be 3-4 years.
Except in this case there's forward conpatibility.
 
I can't believe that people are now comparing the iPhone to the XO. They have widely different purposes, and smartphones are almost vital for some people for communication purposes. A home game console isn't for productivity purposes. Everyone I know has some sort of a smartphone, but I can't say the same about owning a gaming console. See the difference? Upgrading a console every two years is just not feasible financially.

Smartphones are very personal products(I would say almost like a toothbrush) that are used and abused on day to day basis, so they can't last for more than three years.
 
I feel like we've discussed this to death in the other thread, but basically, no. At least, not in the way most people are thinking of. Xbox couldn't pull this off as a closed-box platform. They would have to be wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more open, and depending on what sort of sales they could pick up, they may end up losing support for the new models unless they can get the userbase to move over.

Considering it took them over 2 years to hit 20 million, I don't think that userbase is going to convert to a new piece of hardware anytime soon. And if we did get 5-10 million core Xbox users to go ahead and buy the new machine within the first 12 months, those are just users who are no longer purchasing software on their old box that I then have to continue supporting. It won't work.

But they're banking on that support being easy for you to do, no? If they take the hassle out of supporting older hardware it's not a big deal for a dev is it?

I can't believe that people are now comparing the iPhone to the XO. They have widely different purposes, and smartphones are almost vital for some people for communication purposes. A home game console isn't for productivity purposes. Everyone I know has some sort of a smartphone, but I can't say the same about owning a gaming console. See the difference? Upgrading a console every two years is just not feasible financially.

Smartphones are very personal products(I would say almost like a toothbrush) that are used and abused on day to day basis, so the can't last for more than three years.

The vital purposes your smartphone serves aren't really impacted by the yearly upgrades though. People are upgrading mainly because they want to, it feels like more of a status thing than anything else. Xbox has to become a way more desirable brand for this to work.
 
Nope , console users do not change hardware every 2 years.

Agreed. Those that drop $500+ on upgraded gaming graphics every couple of years are nvidia/AMD's whales.

Smartphones are very personal products(I would say almost like a toothbrush) that are used and abused on day to day basis, so the can't last for more than three years.

Smartphones can definitely last longer than three years. However, advancements in mobile processor, network, and camera technologies are especially quick, making a three-year-old device seem very dated in comparison to new devices. (The iPhone 5S is probably the only exception -- it's still fast and featureful compared to all but the iPhone 6S and Galaxy S7.)
 
I doubt it, unless they could get everyone on monthly contracts. Even then it's a problem for developers to build large scale games on constantly evolving hardware. It doesn't matter on yearly updated phones because those games are hardly pushing any boundaries to begin with.

The console audience need things nice and simple. 5 + 1 year overlap is the sweet spot for consoles IMO

Although with Phil Spencer already mentioning it on stage, I think Microsoft are looking to renew their hardware in the not too distant future. Maybe as early as next year which would be a 4 year life span for the Xbox One.
 
From what I understand Xperia performs quite decent in Europe, or at least in Scandinavia.

Legacy of Ericsson, i guess.

Even though Xperia brand performs below Sony's expectation, it still brings profit, which means proficiency.
 
I think trying to put consoles on a faster, more iterative, upgrade cycle is a bad idea.

Phone upgrade cycles were heavily assisted by carrier subsidy plans that were structured around 2 year cycles. If you kept your phone beyond two years you were throwing money away.

The batteries in phones degrade pretty quickly. When people notice that their phone dies earlier in the day than it used to, they upgrade to fix it.

Also Phones often need to be replaced prematurely due to damage. I don't think people are as likely to drop a console in the toilet.

I would also point out that the iPad's sales numbers flatlined after a few years of constant new models. People hold on to the old models because they are good enough. The only thing that has spike iPad sales recently was the iPad Pro, which adds substantial new hardware features.
 
I think trying to put consoles on a faster, more iterative, upgrade cycle is a bad idea.

Phone upgrade cycles were heavily assisted by carrier subsidy plans that were structured around 2 year cycles. If you kept your phone beyond two years you were throwing money away.

The batteries in phones degrade pretty quickly. When people notice that their phone dies earlier in the day than it used to, they upgrade to fix it.

Also Phones often need to be replaced prematurely due to damage. I don't think people are as likely to drop a console in the toilet.

I would also point out that the iPad's sales numbers flatlined after a few years of constant new models. People hold on to the old models because they are good enough. The only thing that has spike iPad sales recently was the iPad Pro, which adds substantial new hardware features.

Yeah, you need subsidies or killer features to sell people. The people clamoring for super short cycles on Gaf do seem to be a loud minority (surprise...).
 
Never. Apple (along with products such as the iPhone) is much bigger worldwide than Microsoft is with products like Xbox (& even in the U.S.).
 
No, it cant.

The appeal for iPhone, iDevices are not on the same level with damn near any other product.

The iPhone never lost appeal since it launched.

Each iPhone has outsold the previous one....
Each iPhone has outsold the previous one....

Even with the great strides Google has made with Android. Xbox started off rocky, did great last gen and now are back to rocky.

No, it cant.
 
From everything I've heard Spencer say it's mainly sounds like they want to avoid a 360 scenario where its sticking around for 8-9 years while great new progress in tech is out and available.

8-9 years is an eternity for consumer tech. Sounds like they just want to able to refresh when it makes sense.

It also helps that the plan is to be forward/back compatible from now on too.

This is one of the major reasons why I'm skeptical about the idea of any hardware manufacturer spending billions on R&D to ship a new console every 2 to 3 years.

There comes a point where technology is "good enough" for some people regardless of how unsexy it may be compared to the latest more powerful hardware. The Xbox 360 is a great console even now if you want to play a large variety of great games. It may be from last generation but as long as new games are still being released for it that, for the most part, are available on Xbox One, why upgrade?

Of course there are many different and valid answers to that question. For Sony and Microsoft, they have to be careful not to make their current consoles too good to the point that it hinders early adoption of the next generation. That's a very real danger when we start talking about shorter hardware cycles. No console manufacturer in the world can afford to keep putting out slightly improved hardware revisions without significant adoption rates and they will have to convince consumers that their current consoles are no longer "good enough." (They will also have to convince retailers to carry the various hardware.)

Ironically, I believe that by continuing to release the latest games on the older hardware, that actually can justify NOT upgrading to the latest hardware. And if the latest games stop being released on the older hardware, now you have an expensive piece of hardware whose value is limited to 2 to 3 years of games instead of our normal 5 to 7 year cycle. At that point, the hardware cycles are no different than the past except now, the financial burden is on the developers and consumers to keep up with the rapid development in hardware.

My two cents anyway. We'll see what happens.
 
These threads are getting ridiculous. Can we at least wait for something more concrete?

But no, it's can't. Yearly console updates are dumb. Even two years is dumb. They would have to do something pretty special to make this appealing to people.
 
I have zero faith that Microsoft can bring anything of quality to the market in a timely manner.
So, no.
 
Having the newest iPhone every year is a sign of status, similar to having a new car every year.

Unless Xbox can become something like that, its not going to happen.
 
Nintendo had and Sony has a better chance at this than MS. Especially seeing what Nintendo did with the Wii and handhelds.

Too bad Nintendo couldnt capitalize on the Wii phenomenon.
 
This is one of the major reasons why I'm skeptical about the idea of any hardware manufacturer spending billions on R&D to ship a new console every 2 to 3 years.

There comes a point where technology is "good enough" for some people regardless of how unsexy it may be compared to the latest more powerful hardware. The Xbox 360 is a great console even now if you want to play a large variety of great games. It may be from last generation but as long as new games are still being released for it that, for the most part, are available on Xbox One, why upgrade?

Of course there are many different and valid answers to that question. For Sony and Microsoft, they have to be careful not to make their current consoles too good to the point that it hinders early adoption of the next generation. That's a very real danger when we start talking about shorter hardware cycles. No console manufacturer in the world can afford to keep putting out slightly improved hardware revisions without significant adoption rates and they will have to convince consumers that their current consoles are no longer "good enough." (They will also have to convince retailers to carry the various hardware.)

Ironically, I believe that by continuing to release the latest games on the older hardware, that actually can justify NOT upgrading to the latest hardware. And if the latest games stop being released on the older hardware, now you have an expensive piece of hardware whose value is limited to 2 to 3 years of games instead of our normal 5 to 7 year cycle. At that point, the hardware cycles are no different than the past except now, the financial burden is on the developers and consumers to keep up with the rapid development in hardware.

My two cents anyway. We'll see what happens.

You think they're spending billions on R&D or would be if they went to a faster upgrade cycle? I doubt Sony spent billions R&Ding the PS4.

I personally like long console cycles. I'm hoping this generation lasts another 7-8 years. I think that the world underwent such a massive shift (iPhone launch) close to the beginning of last generation and it threw things off. We're not seeing that shift this time around. VR is supposed that big shift, but I do not think VR is the second coming of the smartphone.

These threads are getting ridiculous. Can we at least wait for something more concrete?

But no, it's can't. Yearly console updates are dumb. Even two years is dumb. They would have to do something pretty special to make this appealing to people.

Where's the fun in that? 🙃
 
The widespread excitement for a new iPhone is greater than the cumulative excitement and demand for every single console announced this gen ... and that was after a long ass wait for new hardware.

So no, I don't think the Xbox can ever be as ubiquitous as the iPhone.
 
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