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[Inuhanyou]

And after the holidays people will be back to "holy crap the numbers are way bettter than 360 and PS3 at the current point in time!"

Its unfortunate that every single time we have a low month we have to hear hypebole like in January.

 

[BumRush]

Curious as to why so many are saying this Gen is "front loaded" when we're still...in the front?

 

[Opiate]

The Wii was $250, not $400.

Sure, and also less powerful. Can't have it both ways.

You could have had a 400 dollar Wii, but then it also would have been more powerful, which would have impacted the generation very significantly (i.e. it could have had multiplats with PS3/360).

Alternatively, Sony could have made a 250 dollar PS4, but it would have been notably less powerful, which might have given Microsoft an edge. It's hard to say.

 

[Death2494]

I'd assume IDG would be using sell through. Install base wouldn't mean shipped as consumers haven't "installed" them, right?

Your guess is as good as mine. I, honestly, don't know which is why I'm looking for another source to verify it.

But this isn't a hard number anyway. He said that it was IDG's estimate.

 

[NateDrake]

Curious as to why so many are saying this Gen is "front loaded" when we're still...in the front?

This generation didn't really suffer from stock shortages for an extended period of time - the Xbox 360/Wii had supply issues. Last generation lasted a long time and a lot of people seemed to have jumped into this generation very quickly. The momentum in the US marketplace isn't really that amazing for either the PS4 or Xbox One (worldwide for the PS4 is a different story since over 50% of sales for console are from EU and other regions). In my opinion, a lot of those people who would wait for the first price drop or a couple of years have jumped into this generation. Plenty still remain but, as of now, I don't see either console eclipsing 100mill units.

We could even look at the core audience is now older and may be less inclined to buy home consoles, while the up and coming youth are consumed by tablet and mobile games. That is a different topic, however.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sure, and also less powerful. Can't have it both ways.

You could have had a 400 dollar Wii, but then it also would have been more powerful, which would have impacted the generation very significantly (i.e. it could have had multiplats with PS3/360).

Alternatively, Sony could have made a 250 dollar PS4, but it would have been notably less powerful, which might have given Microsoft an edge. It's hard to say.

Of course, I just meant part of the Wii's huge sales were due to it launching at a mass market price that the PS4 won't reach till its 2 or 3 years old.

 

[vpance]

There's more to this industry than pure unit sales numbers.

PS4 and Bone are already profiting more than last gen, so this is healthy. The pubs are doing well too I believe. And likewise with the expanded opportunities for indie devs. Maybe the market grows, maybe it doesn't, but as long as the core 80 to 100M user base sticks around it'll be fine. Don't really see that changing anytime soon.

 

[Chobel]

Your guess is as good as mine. I, honestly, don't know which is why I'm looking for another source to verify it.

But this isn't a hard number anyway. He said that it was IDG's estimate.

It can't be sold-in: PS4 is at least 22.3m of that 34m. So that would make XB1 11.7m sold-in at best, which is impossible.

 

[Mcdohl]

It can't be sold-in: PS4 is at least 22.3m of that 34m. So that would make XB1 11.7m sold-in at best, which is impossible.

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop. Why is it impossible?

 

[Final Verdict]

I would disagree about PS4 and X1 sales being front loaded. But I would agree that overall sales will be down from gen 6&7.
I personally see ~180-190M consoles sold for gen 8 when it is all said and done...maybe 15M WiiU, 50M X1, and 125M PS4.

I think PS4 will have long legs similar to PS2 thanks to it's well constructed architecture, but will probably have a 2-1 split with x1 until 2016 when I think exclusive games and VR hype will push it even further ahead.

I believe X1 will still sell fairly well as it has been, and I think MS will service it's hardcore crowd more.

As for Wii U, I am expecting Nintendo to abandon it completely after 2016.

Just my probably completely off predictions though.

 

[truth411]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop. Why is it impossible?

I'm wondering the same thing?

 

[NateDrake]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop. Why is it impossible?

Xbox One isn't exactly topping the charts worldwide and US sales are a bit over 7mill, I believe. Seems unlikely that it has sold 4-5mill in EU/other regions.

 

[Chobel]

Sorry I'm a bit out of the loop. Why is it impossible?

XB1 had 10m shipped at start of December 2014, and there's no way they couldn't ship 1.7m (or less) in 5 more months.

Anyway the estimates put XB1 shipments between 13m and 13.5m (At the end of March).

 

[rokkerkory]

It can't be sold-in: PS4 is at least 22.3m of that 34m. So that would make XB1 11.7m sold-in at best, which is impossible.

what's the timestamp on this report?

 

[orochi91]

I won't be in for a shock , i think the market has spoken there is only a place for one good\great selling console .
And i for one would welcome the one console \ pc world .

+1

A single console is all that's needed in this industry, as far as I'm concerned.

With PC as an alternative, of course.

 

[Chobel]

what's the timestamp on this report?

"Currently", so probably the end of April.

 

[Death2494]

It can't be sold-in: PS4 is at least 22.3m of that 34m. So that would make XB1 11.7m sold-in at best, which is impossible.

Again, this isn't a hard number but merely an estimation. But yeah, that number definitely seems too low even for me.

 

[Welfare]

Xbox One isn't exactly topping the charts worldwide and US sales are a bit over 7mill, I believe. Seems unlikely that it has sold 4-5mill in EU/other regions.

Chobel was saying it's impossible for the 34 million to refer to sold in, which is a different number than sold through, such as the 7 million Xbox One's in the US.

We know that by December 3, 2014, the Xbox One reached 10 million sold in (shipped). The Xbox One could not have only shipped 1.7 million units worldwide in 5 months.

 

[Death2494]

XB1 had 10m shipped at start of December 2014, and there's no way they couldn't ship 1.7m (or less) in 5 more months.

Anyway the estimates put XB1 shipments between 13m and 13.5m (At the end of March).

Can't wait until E3, hopefully we'll have a better picture on the numbers.

Chobel was saying it's impossible for the 34 million to refer to sold in, which is a different number than sold through, such as the 7 million Xbox One's in the US.

We know that by December 3, 2014, the Xbox One reached 10 million sold in (shipped). The Xbox One could not have only shipped 1.7 million units worldwide in 5 months.

This number is not locked in. It is merely an estimate.

 

[nitekrawlwer]

PS4 70 million
X1 25 million
WiiU 15 million

That sounds about right to me. I would have put PS4 at 80. I'm very surprised to hear such low estimates from IDG given how much shit I got for saying PS4 didn't have great sales and might not eclipse the PS1.

 

[NateDrake]

Chobel was saying it's impossible for the 34 million to refer to sold in, which is a different number than sold through, such as the 7 million Xbox One's in the US.

We know that by December 3, 2014, the Xbox One reached 10 million sold in (shipped). The Xbox One could not have only shipped 1.7 million units worldwide in 5 months.

Ah, yes, I was thinking sold through.

 

[Abdiel]

Can't wait until E3, hopefully we'll have a better picture on the numbers.

I think the only way we're going to get numbers on the XB1 is when MS can't hide them as joint shipments of 360 anymore, or at least it is expected that they are a miniscule portion of shipments.

 

[truth411]

XB1 had 10m shipped at start of December 2014, and there's no way they couldn't ship 1.7m (or less) in 5 more months.

I remember that report but folks were reading into it something it wasn't saying. If I recall correctly, it said the X1 was hitting 10 million Ship (as getting close) not Hit (as in already accomplished). Without a time frame, probably repeating the 10million ship soon announcement a couple of weeks prior. That's my 2¢.

 

[rokkerkory]

34 million = 22-23m PS4 + 11-12m X1

 

[Raonak]

both WiiU and xbone fucked up. It's no suprise this gen will be a contraction.

 

[Death2494]

I remember that report but folks were reading into it something it wasn't saying. If I recall correctly, it said the X1 was hitting 10 million Ship (as getting close) not Hit (as in already accomplished). Without a time frame, probably repeating the 10million ship soon announcement a couple of weeks prior. That's my 2¢.

I share you opinion on that topic.

 

[legend166]

If Project morpheus is success and sony drop price to $299 then it will have a chance to go past Wii in next 2 years.

You think they could sell 75 million consoles in two years?

Really?

 

[truth411]

Chobel was saying it's impossible for the 34 million to refer to sold in, which is a different number than sold through, such as the 7 million Xbox One's in the US.

We know that by December 3, 2014, the Xbox One reached 10 million sold in (shipped). The Xbox One could not have only shipped 1.7 million units worldwide in 5 months.

I don't think so, see my previous post.

 

[Welfare]

I don't think so, see my previous post.

The report said it hit 10 million. It's late so I won't search for the report now, but I'm sure someone has that somewhere to link to.

 

[Death2494]

So as of march 31.2015 we know that Sony shipped 22.3M

So assume sold through was @ around 21M at the end of the momth since they announced 20.2M sold on March 3rd.

For this estimation to be even remotely close to accurate Xbox One sold-through would need to be 13M by the end of March 2015. (Impossible)

This is if IDG tracked only until March 31st, 2015

The only way for this to make sense (to me) as sold through would be for this for IDG to add April's tracking also. Which would have PS4 at around 22M sold through and Xbox One @ 12M sold-through.

But then they couldn't have been at 13M shipped at the end of March 2015 and just now reaching 12M sold-through in April.

 

[Prototype Viktor]

They don't expect the NX to have sky high sales! Ha

 

[truth411]

So as of march 31.2015 we know that Sony shipped 22.3M

So assume sold through was @ around 21M at the end of the momth since they announced 20.2M sold on March 3rd.

For this estimation to be even remotely close to accurate Xbox One sold-through would need to be 13M by the end of March 2015. (Impossible)

This is if IDG tracked only until March 31st, 2015

The only way for this to make sense (to me) as sold through would be for this for IDG to add April's tracking also. Which would have PS4 at around 22M sold through and Xbox One @ 12M sold-through.

But then they couldn't have been at 13M shipped at the end of March 2015 and just now reaching 12M sold-through in April.

Yea something not adding up, 8+ million from US and UK, they don't have 5 million sold through the rest of the world.

 

[Death2494]

The report said it hit 10 million. It's late so I won't search for the report now, but I'm sure someone has that somewhere to link to.

I thought it was extrapolated from a conference call that took place on December 3rd , where Nadella simply mentioned Xbox One hit 10 million. People took it literally without knowing what report exactly he was referencing. I believe the passed 10 million shipped by the end of 2014, but not by the margin some are saying.

This report kind of proves that.

PS4 was likely @ 21M or more by the end of March 31, 2015

Xbox One sold-through would have to be 13M for this report to make sense as of March 31st, 2015.

 

[truth411]

The report said it hit 10 million. It's late so I won't search for the report now, but I'm sure someone has that somewhere to link to.

(6, year old voice) No it didn't, lol!!!

 

[Boke1879]

They don't expect the NX to have sky high sales! Ha

Unfortunately it probably won't unless Nintendo starts getting serious about 3rd parties

 

[serversurfer]

This would likely be as of May 1st and that is when IDG released data to partners.

Just out of curiosity, how do you know that? I poked around their site a bit, but didn't really find anything. Regardless, surely the report wouldn't be up-to-the-minute, would it? If the report is dated May 1st, it seems pretty unlikely that it includes sales through April 30th. When Take Two mentioned in their Q4 call that IDG reported 29M sold through, that was as of the end of the year, wasn't it? Do IDG not do their reports quarterly, or what? They do trimesters or something? Everyone else in the industry is producing their "through Q1" numbers around this time, so why would IDG be any different? FakeEdit: If you can see when the IDG report was released, can you not also see what period it covers? =/

In any case, I listened to the call, and the guy actually says "next-gen consoles." Why do we think that doesn't include the Wii U? Did the 29M figure include Wii U? They do make Wii U games, after all. (Err, maybe they don't anymore?) Anyway, if the 29M/34M figures don't include the Wii U, wouldn't that indicate the forecasts of 50M and 110M don't either?

RealEdit: Nadella said something like "… with the Bone hitting 10M shipped." That can be interpreted in a number of ways. The standard interpretation would mean it's in the process of hitting that mark, but most have taken "hitting" to mean "having hit." /shrug

 

[CosmicQueso]

Some things about IDG and its console forecasting:

• They are reliable
• They are the preferred forecast vendor for a number of major publishers
• They forecast Consumer Sales only - not shipments
• I've only seen annual estiamtes on HW sales and install bases - so not sure about this point in time stuff, unless they're estimating current sales based on NPD, GfK and extrapolations for year ending April (the latest time period market data from these territories is currently available)
• IDG's latest forecast update was just released recently. They do a number of these throughout the year.
• They currently are not forecasting for a PS5 or XTwo
• Estimates for NX are conservative because they know as much about that box as the rest of us
• They've generally leaned conservative in their console forecasting for a few years... missing the launches of PS4 & Xone by a chunk (but so did everyone else)
• It's a forecast - the farther out you go, the more likely significant error exists
• Unknows like VR, and whatever the "next" big thing in gaming is aren't included... future forecast is built upon past trends and future estimations
• Data source to build forecasts is NPD, GfK, published financial reports and industry contacts

Hope that helps clarify some things.

 

[Welfare]

Last minute check before bed, and I see Cosmic post what should be enough to tell you guys it is sell through.

 

[Death2494]

Some things about IDG and its console forecasting:

• They are reliable
• They are the preferred forecast vendor for a number of major publishers
• They forecast Consumer Sales only - not shipments
• I've only seen annual estiamtes on HW sales and install bases - so not sure about this point in time stuff, unless they're estimating current sales based on NPD, GfK and extrapolations for year ending April (the latest time period market data from these territories is currently available)
• IDG's latest forecast update was just released recently. They do a number of these throughout the year.
• They currently are not forecasting for a PS5 or XTwo
• Estimates for NX are conservative because they know as much about that box as the rest of us
• They've generally leaned conservative in their console forecasting for a few years... missing the launches of PS4 & Xone by a chunk (but so did everyone else)
• It's a forecast - the farther out you go, the more likely significant error exists
• Unknows like VR, and whatever the "next" big thing in gaming is aren't included... future forecast is built upon past trends and future estimations
• Data source to build forecasts is NPD, GfK, published financial reports and industry contacts

Hope that helps clarify some things.

So when did they stop tracking their hardware sales? It couldn't have been as of March 31st, 2015.

Also thanks for the clarification Queso

 

[CosmicQueso]

So when did they stop tracking their hardware sales? It couldn't have been as of March 31st, 2015.

Also thanks for the clarification Queso

I will look tomorrow, see if I can figure out where that came from.

Last minute check before bed, and I see Cosmic post what should be enough to tell you guys it is sell through.

Right... I've only seen sell-through and I've only seen annual forecasts. I've never seen them do quarterly forecasts, although I'm sure they have the capability. Maybe Take 2 bought some custom cuts.

 

[serversurfer]

Some things about IDG and its console forecasting:

• They are reliable
• They are the preferred forecast vendor for a number of major publishers
• They forecast Consumer Sales only - not shipments
• I've only seen annual estiamtes on HW sales and install bases - so not sure about this point in time stuff, unless they're estimating current sales based on NPD, GfK and extrapolations for year ending April (the latest time period market data from these territories is currently available)
• IDG's latest forecast update was just released recently. They do a number of these throughout the year.
• They currently are not forecasting for a PS5 or XTwo
• Estimates for NX are conservative because they know as much about that box as the rest of us
• They've generally leaned conservative in their console forecasting for a few years... missing the launches of PS4 & Xone by a chunk (but so did everyone else)
• It's a forecast - the farther out you go, the more likely significant error exists
• Unknows like VR, and whatever the "next" big thing in gaming is aren't included... future forecast is built upon past trends and future estimations
• Data source to build forecasts is NPD, GfK, published financial reports and industry contacts

Hope that helps clarify some things.

What's an NX?

Right... I've only seen sell-through and I've only seen annual forecasts. I've never seen them do quarterly forecasts, although I'm sure they have the capability. Maybe Take 2 bought some custom cuts.

Err, didn't you just say they released a report recently, and that they do a number of reports throughout the year? =/

 

[EventHorizon]

• The XB1 and PS4 have achieved their sales without subsidies. If XB1 and PS4 were subsidized at launch like the 360 (ignoring PS3 since that was a mess), the XB1 would have cost around $349 and the PS4 $299. That would have greatly increased their sales
• This generation has had to deal with a sluggish economy so far while last gen benefited from booming (although artificially inflated) economy
• This generation doesn't have a breakout populous hit like last gen's Guitar Heroes and its highest profile games are annualized series like Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed.
• New games like Destiny and Watch Dogs haven't lived up to the hype.
• Nintendo is its own thing. Equating Nintendo's downfall to all consoles is like equating the downfall of westerns to all movies

Putting all this together shows that so far this generation has been targeted towards a narrower audience that was willing to pay relatively more for a console and are satisfied by the current crop of games. It also suggests that going forward there are still cards to play to accelerate sales. The XB1 has already shown that consoles are price sensitive. The inevitable future price drops should have a significant positive impact on sales. It should also be noted that this gen has had to deal with a much slower economy than last gen. Assuming that the economy continues to recover, console sales should improve with it.

This generation has yet to have a populous hit. While I don't think HaloLens will have a large impact on XB1 sales since it is a standalone product that doesn't need to be paired with the XB1 to work, I do think that Morpheus will be at least as big for the PS4 as the original Kinect was for the 360. That is going to be another spike in sales we can expect to see in the future.

Finally I think it is safe to say that the part of the console consumer base represented by Nintendo will see a contraction. However since Nintendo pursued a Blue Ocean strategy, their fate is less indicative of the industry as a whole. The Wii's meteoric success was directly tied to motion controllers. Once that fad ran out, there was nothing there to prop up the Wii U's sales. PlayStation and Xbox are not so entangled and can stand on their own. Although as mentioned above they would benefit with a populous hit like Guitar Heroes or the original Kinect.

 

[Chobel]

What's an NX?

Nintendo next console

Err, didn't you just say they released a report recently, and that they do a number of reports throughout the year? =/

I think he meant they update their forecasts multiple times a year.

 

[StevieP]

• The XB1 and PS4 have achieved their sales without subsidies. If XB1 and PS4 were subsidized at launch like the 360 (ignoring PS3 since that was a mess), the XB1 would have cost around $349 and the PS4 $299. That would have greatly increased their sales
• This generation has had to deal with a sluggish economy so far while last gen benefited from booming (although artificially inflated) economy
• This generation doesn't have a breakout populous hit like last gen's Guitar Heroes and its highest profile games are annualized series like Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed.
• New games like Destiny and Watch Dogs haven't lived up to the hype.
• Nintendo is its own thing. Equating Nintendo's downfall to all consoles is like equating the downfall of westerns to all movies

Putting all this together shows that so far this generation has been targeted towards a narrower audience that was willing to pay relatively more for a console and are satisfied by the current crop of games. It also suggests that going forward there are still cards to play to accelerate sales. The XB1 has already shown that consoles are price sensitive. The inevitable future price drops should have a significant positive impact on sales. It should also be noted that this gen has had to deal with a much slower economy than last gen. Assuming that the economy continues to recover, console sales should improve with it.

This generation has yet to have a populous hit. While I don't think HaloLens will have a large impact on XB1 sales since it is a standalone product that doesn't need to be paired with the XB1 to work, I do think that Morpheus will be at least as big for the PS4 as the original Kinect was for the 360. That is going to be another spike in sales we can expect to see in the future.

Finally I think it is safe to say that the part of the console consumer base represented by Nintendo will see a contraction. However since Nintendo pursued a Blue Ocean strategy, their fate is less indicative of the industry as a whole. The Wii's meteoric success was directly tied to motion controllers. Once that fad ran out, there was nothing there to prop up the Wii U's sales. PlayStation and Xbox are not so entangled and can stand on their own. Although as mentioned above they would benefit with a populous hit like Guitar Heroes or the original Kinect.

"if I remove data points to dismiss a gaming console, things look rosier! Please also ignore the fact that the expanded market also included a great deal of ps2 sales and even a lot of 360 sales. But those consoles were also a fad anyway. Did I mention fad?"

Nintendo next console


I think he meant they update their forecasts multiple times a year.

You mean handheld?

 

[inner-G]

Urghh... U guys are so negative. "this Gen is front loaded" ps4 will barely sell over 75million. Software is what changes everything, and this is still very early. I'm not saying ps4 is gonna do 150 mind you, but its like some users are overly negative about everything. Monthly trends doesn't predict the future.

Now that the hardware is more 'off-the-shelf' parts, theoretically it will be more feasible to have shorter console cycles

 

[meanspartan]

Okay, let's say I accept this premise.

Where do you think console growth will come from, then? Or do you think consoles are now permanently relegated to minority status in the gaming industry -- that consoles have no real way to reach new customers?

That would be a huge downgrade not just from last generation, but (perhaps even particularly) the generation before that, when consoles dominated the gaming landscape and seem poised to become the de facto way that people played games.

Console growth is happening in that Ps4 and Xbox One are selling faster than their last gen counterparts. They are getting those new customers every day. Yes, there may be more people on mobile overall, but a rising tide lifts all ships, you know? So there will always be a sizable portion of that audience that finds they want something more than the PAYorWAIT bullshit that mobile mostly offers.

Consoles are the defacto way to play real games, Consoles and PC anyway. Mobile isn't real outside of a small handful of quality games, it has shit products that are meant to create addiction not deep gameplay. The mobile audience is the one that bought up a bunch of Wiis but then didn't buy much software for the system, leading third parties to bail on it and stay away from Wii U as well. They play mobile games, but I contend they were never the audience that bought core big budget titles anyway. Maybe some of them went out and bought Mario Kart or a couple other games during the Wii's lifespan, but that is the extent of it is my bet.

We might be a minority within gaming numerically, but we hold a disproportionate share of the value of the gaming industry. Console gamers spend more on their hobby than mobile gamers by a large margin, except for the few "whales" pumping money into Clash of Clans and other such drivel.

Basically, I consider the Wii a fluke that won't be and can't be repeated. And if you correct for that fluke, I think this generation is looking better than the last in regards to console sales.

 

[Whiteblade999]

Pretty good numbers, all things considered.

 

[Chezzymann]

110m is very low for 2019, how can it be if sales are better than their previous model for both consoles? (and in the case of the PS4, the second best ever)

Front loaded. I wouldn't be surprised if this gen doesn't even beat gen 6 in total sales. Definitely won't crack 200 million. Probably not even 175.

Basically, I consider the Wii a fluke that won't be and can't be repeated. And if you correct for that fluke, I think this generation is looking better than the last in regards to console sales.

Even if we assume the 'real' Nintendo fanbase is ~20 million of the Wii's sales, that generation is a total of ~180 million. A little less than the 6th generation. This gen would be lucky to get to that number, assuming in the best case scenario the PS4 gets 100 million, the Xbox One gets 60 million, and the Wii U dramatically turns it around and sells 20 million. Even then it would just be around even with the last gen.

 

[meanspartan]

Front loaded. I wouldn't be surprised if this gen doesn't even beat gen 6 in total sales. Definitely won't crack 200 million. Probably not even 175.


Even if we assume the 'real' Nintendo fanbase is ~20 million of the Wii's sales, that generation is a total of ~180 million. Around the same as the 6th generation. This gen would be lucky to get to that number, asumming the PS4 gets 100 million, the Xbox One gets 60 million, and the Wii U dramatically turns it around and sells 20 million. Even then it would just be even with the last gen.

Fair point, you got me there. And 20 million is about where I'd put the Wii's "real" numbers, since that is roughly the sales GCN got.

But I have to wonder, since PC gaming seems to be growing, perhaps some of that movement is to PC? Which still isn't great news for consoles, but that is an acceptable lateral move in regards to protecting real gaming from being taken over by the smartphones.

I just don't think any core gamer or even CoD or Madden more casual gamer is going to mobile and leaving consoles for mobile only, and maybe some are causing the growth of PC gaming. Perhaps some like me dabble in the quality stuff on mobile like Hearthstone, but anyone who really loves this hobby won't be satisfied by that platform on its own.

 

[z0m3le]

110m sounds about right.

Btw just to put this to rest, Wii has the second highest attach rate for any Nintendo console at over 9 games for every Wii sold. Only being beat by the gamecube at about 9.5:1.

The console market will shrink thanks to smartphones, PC growth and no wii, no one needing a new Netflix player under their table as their ps3 works fine.