-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
IDG Estimates 34 million PS4 & XB1 sold through worldwide through April
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
Acquiescence
Member
PS4 - 23 mil
XB1 - 11 mil
Sounds reasonable.
XB1 - 11 mil
Sounds reasonable.
...Scatter...
Banned
Seems strong. Though I think it will be more to 120-125mm by 2019 because of aggressive price drops since not selling at a loss this Gen.
I've been saying for ages that sales will be frontloaded and will drop off after 2016.
IDG clearly agrees with me. My personal forecast by end of 2019 puts PS4 and XB1 sales just over 130m. And that's optimistic imo.
110m is very low for 2019, how can it be if sales are better than their previous model for both consoles? (and in the case of the PS4, the second best ever)
Welfare
Member
If it's as of March 31, PS4 would be to high. If it's as of May, PS4 would still be to high. Shipments as of March 31 were 22.3m. Sell through wouldn't get to 23 million in May.
Omnistalgic
Member
Urghh... U guys are so negative. "this Gen is front loaded" ps4 will barely sell over 75million. Software is what changes everything, and this is still very early. I'm not saying ps4 is gonna do 150 mind you, but its like some users are overly negative about everything. Monthly trends doesn't predict the future.
I'm guessing it's because the Wii U is selling pretty badly and the PS4 isn't going to end up doing Wii numbers unless something crazy happens.
well... It's 2015. Technology has advanced to the point where a game system really isn't the most impressive thing.
I can understand this viewpoint, but given marginal Wii U sales, it would represent a historic collapse of the console market.
Last generation we saw ~270M consoles sold by 6 years in to the generation.
Forecasting 110M suggests a near 60% reduction in the size of the console market.
Japan was still relevant last generation and Microsoft had a decent presence in EU and other regions. We also can't ignore the boom CoD 4:MW did for the consoles. That game brought in a lot of people and this generation won't have a title to repeat that.
Wii really pushed the numbers last gen.
Welfare
Member
People don't buy console for the impressive tech.
Chobel
Member
Sword Of Doom
Member
Always negative right? "Consoles are dead". Now it's "sales are front loaded". I don't see how that can be. They seem to be selling pretty well and I'm sure more will sell once there's more software and after price drops
Ah, this makes much more sense. 34 million at the end of March seemed way too high. Right now, I'm guessing the PS4 is at ~22.25 million and XB1 is at ~11.75 million.
yurinka
Member
Why? If they are selling better than before (let's say maybe because this time Nintendo isn't that strong so they have more market share), they may be able to cut the prices before but would prefer to keep a profit -specially considering Sony overal financials and the whole financial story of the Xbox division since it started- so I assume they will want to milk this generation more, trying to make the price cuts later and releasing more generations of games here.
Around 2019 they may have released their second generation of big games (first for some of the teams) and I assume that they will prefer to try another one before switching to the next generation, that will bring more players specially with consoles having great pricing.
I assume that the jump to the next generation will be easier for them, using the same PC-like arquitecture that would allow BC with this current gen for both games and engines but AAA games are already too expensive and they would need a huge install base to make them profitable, so I assume the PS5 and the 4th Xbox won't be released too soon.
meanspartan
Member
Nah I see it as the Wii being a fluke and all those casuals who never bought much software anyway moved from Wii to mobile gaming.
Sure it still hurts but its not a meaningful loss outside of console sale revenue for Nintendo.
Because sales are being driven mostly by core gamers at the moment.
Also sales aren't increasing like they normally would, they're staying the same.
Sales were great to start off with but as I've been saying for a very long time, they won't continue to grow. People expecting a 200m+ install base are going to be in for a shock.
meanspartan
Member
Lionel Richie
Member
Boy, E3 can't come fast enough.
Every time in every sales thread. smh
Wii owners bought software in same amounts as PS1 and PS2 owners did. Wii also had great total software sales compared to PS3 and X360.
Welfare
Member
Read further.
At the end of April I don't see the PS4 being at 22.25m. It was at 20.2m at the beginning of March, and did 1.7m in January and February combined. March and April won't be adding 2 million.
I'm not Zhuge or anything, but if it's as of May 1, then I guesstimate the split to be 21.7m:12.3m, with any additional sales past 34m being split to both, but with >75% of said sales going to the PS4.
Obliterator
Member
They are gonna exceed 110 million, unless this generation is cut short imo.
PS4 alone will do 90+ million
PS4 alone will do 90+ million
Boombox On
Member
I'm not sure why people think that the consoles being x86-based ensures backwards compatibility. Even referring to the microarchitecture as surface water obfuscating a giant iceberg is an understatement.
That's not to say that I know it won't be BC, but just making it similar to PCs alone won't do it for the future.
Back to the topic at hand, I'm not surprised to see estimates for this gen falling under the previous gen's sales. The demand for these consoles always seemed more due to them being at more approachable price points for the same audience rather than having a larger audience in and of itself.
myharlequin
Member
but not faster than the Wii
Thing is, the majority of new console sales are to people who have owned consoles in the past: there are only so many of those to go around. So unless they can start drawing in new customers as in past generations, 110 sounds reasonable. And they just might be able to, if, for example, Morpheus catches on. But the competition for mindshare and people's attention is much fiercer now than in 2006 or 2000, so I think 110 will probably be close to the actual number.
Okay, let's say I accept this premise.
Where do you think console growth will come from, then? Or do you think consoles are now permanently relegated to minority status in the gaming industry -- that consoles have no real way to reach new customers?
That would be a huge downgrade not just from last generation, but (perhaps even particularly) the generation before that, when consoles dominated the gaming landscape and seem poised to become the de facto way that people played games.
biglittleps
Member
If Project morpheus is success and sony drop price to $299 then it will have a chance to go past Wii in next 2 years.
Yes, I think that going forward gaming on dedicated hardware will be in the minority to that done on smartphones/tablets/Facebook. It might not be what many here would like to believe, but I can't see any way from a population stand point how $300-$400 hardware and $40-$70 software can possibly compete with $1-$10 games on hardware that most people would own regardless of gaming.
It's not that no "new" gamers will come along, but I believe they will be overshadowed by new mobile gamers and previous console owners who exit to play casually on their mobile devices as well.
ShinMaruku
Member
110 million sounds about right. The wii was an aberration personally I think this is the market stabilizing. Last gen was too long and was bloated. Let the new normal set in.100 million is still a lot.
The_Inquisitor
Member
Everything works in bubbles. Mobile gaming is in bubble state with freemium games. Eventually people will become bored and move to the next thing. Maybe VR, who knows.
Listened to the conference call. He references IDG quote of 34 million sold @ 9:08. He doesn't mention anything about it being sold-in or sold-through.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/317...re-ttwo-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-webcast
You can skip to 9:08 seconds
Any other source to back up sold-through claim? Because I'm not seeing/hearing it. transcripts?
I'd imagine we'll have a much better picture during E3 2015.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/317...re-ttwo-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-webcast
You can skip to 9:08 seconds
Any other source to back up sold-through claim? Because I'm not seeing/hearing it. transcripts?
I'd imagine we'll have a much better picture during E3 2015.
Welfare
Member
I'd assume IDG would be using sell through. Install base wouldn't mean shipped as consumers haven't "installed" them, right?
The Wii was $250, not $400.
Why? What will E3 change? A price drop?
gundamkyoukai
Member
I won't be in for a shock , i think the market has spoken there is only a place for one good\great selling console .
And i for one would welcome the one console \ pc world .