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XSX/PS5 Pro?
- Thread starter FMX
- Start date
saintjules
Member
Timestamp
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
But people can just buy bigger drives; SSD costs will come down gradually, just keep in mind if you want a much bigger drive sooner you'd have to settle for a slower drive.
Yep; hardware capability stopped being the limiting factor a long time ago IMO. Development time, budget, and manpower are the biggest limiting factors for how ambitious a new AAA game can have going forward. Funny enough all three are things which haven't been particularly well addressed by the industry yet, because they're very hard to do. Designing a new console architecture spec is easy by comparison.
I got interested in learning more on some of the AI programming models like GPT-3 (for human-like text) and DALL-E (generating visual images from text descriptions generated by GPT-3) and such. They're systems that can automate the creation of text dialogs using machine learning, so you have one person acting as the specialist or curator and the system generates the dialog/text. It's gotten very sophisticated over the years and companies like Microsoft have investments into the technology (in Microsoft's case, they have exclusive license to GPT-3 for their products and are the only ones who have access to its source code).
I think stuff like that will be the real future innovation for rapidly expediating game development, if models and systems can be developed that can do the same for, say, graphic textures, audio creation, 3D mesh creation and game code generation. It would help greatly solve the dev time, budget and manpower problems facing massive AAA game development, and flow down to smaller teams, allowing mid-tier and indie devs to potentially truly make AAA-scale blockbusters.
We are probably many years away from that becoming a reality however, but the AAA gaming space needs those breakthroughs sooner rather than later, to save it from some unforeseen implosion (due to mounting costs) or explicit scaling back of features (to reign in costs and development time). My only big worry with that type of development is potential workforce displacement; suddenly you won't need dozens of animators an VFX artists if an AI programming and content creation model can do that itself, faster and at greater volume to boot. Specialists who can program and curate the generated content would be in very high demand, and some of the people in positions that'd be phased out could transition, but not all of them.
There would probably have to be legislation (either enforced by the industry a la ESRB, or by the government, and we don't want the government enforcing it!) mandating a minimum number of development staff for various positions that must have actual people filling the roles, and punishments (likely fines or revoking of industry privileges) enforced for studios and publishers that don't meet them. However, that could be easily abused, and shut out smaller teams who realistically may not be able to meet certain mimimums, so it would be best to have those minimums set as percentages of total staff rather than specific numbers.
IIRC PS4 Pro had a 1:5 sales ratio with base PS4, and the One X had a lower sales ratio than that (probably 1:6 or something like that). I don't know if either brought more gamers in, I'd think they mainly appealed to parts of their respective existing bases that wanted more powerful systems.
In fact I think Sony at the time said they made PS4 Pro to prevent PS4 players from drifting over to the PC, as that was a real fear of theirs (a bit ironic now considering their "evolving" stance in supporting PC nowadays).
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
The thing about gaming in general is most studios still gun for best production values as budget permits, which can sacrifice gameplay. There's so much filler like cinematics, hiring professional actors, best rock and hair textures ever etc.... the average game could probably get by fine if they gassed some aesthetics employees to cut costs, or replaced them with gameplay coders.
If you look at the best selling games, not many of them are even uber best looking. The key factors to best selling and biggest community games usually seems to be MP games or games with giant scope. And not too many of these are the best looking or have the best acting in it. It's about gameplay and a fun or competitive loop making gamers come back for more.
RPS37
Member
For me, I’m just waiting for an okay priced (2TB?) expansion card for my XSX.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Yeah Microsoft need to get on top of that (that and opening up to partners aside just Seagate). By the time I can pick a system up I'd like to find an expansion card that's more affordable, or offers more capacity at the price of the current 1 TB one.
ZywyPL
Banned
2023 seems optimistic given the ongoing chip shortages and other delays for the consumers, true, but the reality is that Sony and MS already started developing their next consoles the very moment PS5/XSX were finalized, somewhere in 2nd half of 2020. So they have all the ongoing R&D and related costs, and they will have the new hardware finalized at some point in the future regardless, and the question is - why should they hold it back and continue to sell the old models?
Keep in mind that chip orders are made even years in advance, so if the rumored mid-gen consoles will have to use 5 or 3nm process, those APUs will have to be ordered in advance no matter what's the condition of market. Because Sony and MS cannot just passively wait and see what the market will look like in 2-3 years, how many people will get their hands on PS5/XSX until then to decide if it's a good moment or not to release new models, because they'd be a good year or two too late to the party. Not to mention the competitive aspect, because imagine for example Sony releasing Slim and Pro model with MS sitting completely silent with no new XB revision on the horizon.
And let's be honest, what's the difference for the end consumer if he's paying 499$ for old or new model? If anything, people will be happy that for the same money they can now get a much better console. Or cheaper Slim model. Who's lucky enough to get the base model until the mid-gen launches, good for him, while those who didn't will have to get something from the new offering instead, while Sony/MS will once again move onto designing their next hardware.
Because at the end of the day they have their R&D roadmap, schedlues and budgets, to which they have to stick to no matter how many consumer products they're able to throw onto the market. If anything, they'll be limited by AMD's and TSMC advancements in the first place on which they depend, if AMD will have their products done and TMSC will have to process node in place, the new consoles will launch as soon as they are finished, I have zero doubts about it.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
ZywyPL
You bring up some good points with how the behind-the-scenes R&D costs, roadmaps and wafer production contracts for APU designs would have a big impact on the release schedules for hardware revisions regardless of what happens in the consumer side of the market. I hadn't given enough consideration to that before you brought it up.However since I was looking at it a lot from consumer readiness factor, I also have to think about the Day 1 buyers and early adopters, how will they feel per se if just a couple years later a new revision comes out doubling performance, or offers a significant increase in some areas for the same price they paid for models now technically obsolete (in terms of being the marquee of the product line)? I guess this is where the question of customer satisfaction comes in, if people think they've gotten a lot out of what they purchased before so as not to become jaded with a big revision so soon after they jumped into the ecosystem.
What complicates that here is that the current-gen consoles are being very slow in phasing away from last-gen because the industry itself is more dependent on cross-gen than it was with the launch of last gen, and a big part of that is due to impacts from COVID. Which yes those are outside the scope of control of the platform holders, and gamers know that, but that logical realization won't change the emotional impact new revisions might have to customers who could end up feeling jaded by not getting enough "next-gen"-ness out of a console they only purchased a year or two before the revisions came in, because it may not FEEL like it's been 2 or 3 years for them due to cross-gen proliferation.
So clearly, there's a lot of complex factors in this, but I trust Microsoft and Sony to do what they feel is best for not just them, but developers and gamers as well.
Some random guy on the Internet claming that we might see a PS5 Pro in 2023 or 2024 and that it might cost $700 to $800 and that it might be capable of 8K.
ZywyPL
Banned
We already saw some outrage when PS4 Pro launched, where some people felt betrayed, started to call their base model 'PS4 Amateur', but eventually they swallowed it up and went back to playing all those games that were still available to them regardless, some even upgraded to Pro model. So it has already been done, tested and verified, that despite some initial minor voices on the internet, the market as a whole will gladly welcome anything new Sony and MS will be willing to introduce.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
That's true, but also keep in mind the base PS4 and XBO consoles, a lot of people already felt those were outdated when they launched. They didn't feel as future-proofed for some folks the way the base PS5 and XSX do with people today. So there's a chance the people who didn't balk so much at the concept of a PS4 Pro for example, may do so more with a PS5 Pro coming roughly three years after the base model, especially considering the increased proliferation of cross-gen support even among 1P offerings (which wasn't the case with last gen).
A couple new vids on the subject in general btw:
MLID did another video on the mid-gen refresh rumors, this one into potential for increased capacity of production by producing them on 6nm or even 5nm.
And Brad Sam's opinion on the MLID mid-gen refresh stuff. Let's just say he's not a fan of those rumors xD.
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kyliethicc
Member
For the next 3 years all Sony & Microsoft will focus on are making as many units of the consoles the have already released.
Only changes to expect are slimmer models, and some models with more internal storage. Minor redesigns for cost reductions.
New chips with new spec skus for devs, before 2024, in this economy? Doubt.
Only changes to expect are slimmer models, and some models with more internal storage. Minor redesigns for cost reductions.
New chips with new spec skus for devs, before 2024, in this economy? Doubt.
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Kazekage1981
Member
I knew it! So the potential for PS5Pro and XsXPro for the GPU:
with MCM design double digit TFLOPS: 30+
increase in GPU Frequency: Up to 3Ghz
increase in RAM: 20-25 GB close to 1 TB/sec of GDDR7
implementation of infinity cache
dedicated and better Ray Tracing Cores, and Machine Learning Cores
For the CPU I am speculating:
3D V-Cache
8 Core (Zen 2) to 12 Core (Zen 4)
Between 4--5Ghz
SSD:
PCIE 5 implementation
between 15-30 GB/Sec close to the RAM bandwidth of PS3 and Xbox 360
Besides no brainer implementation for Wifi6E, i am not sure if OPTICAL DISK DRIVES are even worth it. What storage medium would they use to release games? 4K Ultra Blu Ray i think is just too small for XsX Pro and PS5 Pro
kyliethicc
Member
Putonahappyface
Member
The prospect of a PS5 Pro is an easy sell for me.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
samoilaaa
Member
yeah pro versions will most likely release , the consoles are powerful for now but dont forget that we dont even have games that really push their abilities , just wait for a Gears 6 , ps5 only god of war and horizon , next cdpr game , avowed , dragon age 4 , wolverine , fable
to achieve 4k 60fps with rtx you will need more than 12tf
to achieve 4k 60fps with rtx you will need more than 12tf
ZywyPL
Banned
Let me guess - you want all that for 499$ max right? C'mon, why are you guys always doing it to yourselves, it's like I'm reading the infanous next-gen speculation thread all over again...
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cinnamonandgravy
Member
looking forward to it, because xbox console names are always stupid/funny
Loxus
Member
The only thing I think a Pro model would have is double to the the CU count and slightly higher clocks like the PS4 Pro.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Some of the things listed here I think will happen; maybe not exactly 30 TF systems (well, at least in Sony's case), but high 20s will be likely. Might want to tame down the clock frequency though; only the top-end RDNA3 cards will be hitting 3+ GHz I feel, frequencies that high are going to need a ton of cooling and consoles still need to fit within a certain power envelope even with benefits of smaller node processes.
Similarly, I wouldn't expect any increase in RAM capacity, but RAM bandwidth will probably increase by a few hundred. CPU-wise, Sony will probably stick with Zen 2 but increase frequency and it'll be on a smaller node giving the power consumption headroom for a safe upclock; OTOH Microsoft might have a different view WRT a mid-gen refresh so they might be using a more recent Zen-based design. They'll both prob stick with 8c/16t CPUs still, though.
I'd...be very cautious with the SSD spec. Current games aren't even using a fraction of the full I/O potential of base PS5 and Series systems, I don't see a reason for insanely faster drives. I think you'll see support for NVMe Gen 5 x4-lane drives, but default drives included won't be that much faster than PS5's.
I think Sony already has Wifi6 or 6E included, so Microsoft will need to make the jump to Wifi6 at least with their refreshes. They'll still support optical discs, they have their purpose, but I think they'll support them differently.
I don't think it'll have double the CUs because that would hinge on it staying RDNA2-based; IIRC RDNA3 has redesigned the setup, the GPU isn't exactly arranged like it is with RDNA2 GPUs.
You can get double PS5 perf with similar CU and shader core counts on RDNA3 let alone RDNA4 (which is what I think mid-gen refreshes would actually be using), and slightly higher GPU clocks.
Well, all of his specs no you'd have to pay more than $499 for. But at the very least, it's very doable to get over 2x GPU perf (at least on TF side) of PS5 and Series X for mid-gen refreshes in say 2024, at $499. That shouldn't be a problem at all, TBH.
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Aenima
Member
The ppl that support hardware refreshes mid gen, are tbe ones crying they dont see much diference when they buy a next gen console.
Unless it breaks ill keep my base console untill end of the gen, if i was into refreshing hardware i would be playing on PC.
I also dont see any need for more powerfull hardware when most games are still crossgen and dont even take full advantage of the hardware available.
Unless it breaks ill keep my base console untill end of the gen, if i was into refreshing hardware i would be playing on PC.
I also dont see any need for more powerfull hardware when most games are still crossgen and dont even take full advantage of the hardware available.
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Putonahappyface
Member
For me personally I just want quality, performance and ray tracing rolled into one rather than three options. Also I don't mind paying a premium for a quality product.
Kazekage1981
Member
PS5Pro and XsX Pro will NOT come out next year, most likely Holiday of 2024.
T thicc_girls_are_teh_best PS5 has Wifi6 not Wifi6E.
With Microsofts case, they can have some sort of transition alpha/beta/gamma kits with Zen3/RDNA3 slap on the current XsX|S, Xbone/X OS, and have the potential for the XsXPro to be Zen4|RDNA4 for its final specs. Developers need time to get familiar with hardware and tap into its bells and whistles, so Zen3/RDNA3 would be something to toy around with, with plenty of headroom remaining with Zen4/RDNA4
With that being said, i honestly think that current gen wont really start until 2024 because they will have to finally divorce from Jaguar and Vega/Polaris and the feature set of current gen:
SFS/SSD streaming
Zen 2/RDNA 2
VRS
VRR
Geometry Engine
Ray Tracing
Fidelity FX
will be far too advanced in XsXPro|PS5Pro for Xbone|x and PS4|Pro to handle
T thicc_girls_are_teh_best PS5 has Wifi6 not Wifi6E.
With Microsofts case, they can have some sort of transition alpha/beta/gamma kits with Zen3/RDNA3 slap on the current XsX|S, Xbone/X OS, and have the potential for the XsXPro to be Zen4|RDNA4 for its final specs. Developers need time to get familiar with hardware and tap into its bells and whistles, so Zen3/RDNA3 would be something to toy around with, with plenty of headroom remaining with Zen4/RDNA4
With that being said, i honestly think that current gen wont really start until 2024 because they will have to finally divorce from Jaguar and Vega/Polaris and the feature set of current gen:
SFS/SSD streaming
Zen 2/RDNA 2
VRS
VRR
Geometry Engine
Ray Tracing
Fidelity FX
will be far too advanced in XsXPro|PS5Pro for Xbone|x and PS4|Pro to handle
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Well personally, I'm not so much 'supporting' it as I am saying it's practically inevitable. Even if designs stay the say architecture-wise, economies-of-scale will drop off for 7nm and if moving to a smaller node gives bigger power consumption savings, it's easy to up clocks to increase overall power as just one example.
Not to mention other things; Sony and Microsoft might get sweeter deals with AMD leveraging their current architecture vs. sticking with a much older one, for example, if it means marketshare growth for a current graphics architecture and products using it.
Eh, I think "true" next-gen kicks off before 2024; we already know Microsoft's cross-gen 1P efforts are done with outside of Halo Infinite updates and Grounded. Sony still has some big games that are cross-gen but I'm sure they have at least one 1P game for 2022 that will be 9th-gen only, and at worst 2023 will see them drop 1P support for PS4.
Shortage issues for PS5 and Series systems (particularly Series X) should be resolved by 2023 at latest, and even 3P seem like they'll be shifting to current-gen only by that date at latest. So hopefully, we won't have to wait until 2024 before fuller 9th-gen only games come rolling along.
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rofif
Can’t Git Gud
ps5 got wifi 6?
I've got
RT-AX56U router... and I thought it is wifi6... but my ps5 only uses 5ghz and I get like 200mbit in the same room on ps5 (on 600mbit connection).
But if they are planned there not coming out any time soon. Maybe 2024 when things might be very different.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
Wifi 6 only supports up to 5GHz bands. 6E is the one that supports up to 6GHz bands.
Yeah, it's kinda confusing. They probably should've called Wifi 6 something else but I guess they didn't want to skip "6".
MikeM
Member
rofif
Can’t Git Gud
ZywyPL
Banned
Which is really all the mid-gen refreshes would need, just more GPU power, everything else is already there in the current models, but whether you want higher resolution, higher framerate, or more RT, the GPU the the showstopper.
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Putonahappyface
Member
I've spent thousands on gaming PC's over the years and I prefer the simplicity of gaming on a console.
kyliethicc
Member
More likely, given the cost constraints, would just be a full PS5 GPU with no CUs disabled, but with faster clocks. So like 40 CUs @ 2.5 GHz max or something like that. They might want to do just enough for boosting framerates / boosting dynamic resolutions / adding more RT, while trying to keep costs down.
The other thing I could see them doing is giving the GPU 2x the RT cores. So currently PS5 has 1 RT core per CU. Could see that being doubled. No need to add thousands more shaders, just a lot more RT cores.
A big marketing push of a PS5 Pro could be "play the 60 FPS mode of games (like Control) but now with ray tracing" basically. Its not gonna be able to focus on 8K gaming like the PS4 Pro did with 4K. So the focus will have to shift to "play the 30 Hz mode now at 60" or "now the 60 Hz mode has RT" etc. I could see the PS5 Pro patches being largely just adding RT or uncapping framerates on certain modes. Instead of like 8K checkerboard modes.
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Loxus
Member
If this patent is to be believed, it's double the CU count.
RDNA 3 get most of their performance gains from being double the CU count by being chiplets.
But do we really need mid gen refreshes this time around though?
These consoles are much more capable than the previous gen were when they were released.
Kazekage1981
Member
PS5Pro could use a refined RDNA2 with parts of RDNA 3 similar to PS4Pro, but like
Loxus
post, why would they do that when you can get more bang for your buck with RDNA 3.
I dont think PS5Pro will be a minor upgrade like PS4 to PS4Pro, I really do think it will be like PS4 to PS5 with a totally new architecture. MS and Sony didnt have much to work with back then, but now AMD has gained so much momentum, and they are not holding back on design/performance on their chips
Loxus
post, why would they do that when you can get more bang for your buck with RDNA 3.I dont think PS5Pro will be a minor upgrade like PS4 to PS4Pro, I really do think it will be like PS4 to PS5 with a totally new architecture. MS and Sony didnt have much to work with back then, but now AMD has gained so much momentum, and they are not holding back on design/performance on their chips
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MikeM
Member
Is it really that bad?
Kazekage1981
Member
Plus although NVIDIA has nothing to do with console gaming, AMD wants to flex its muscles showing what RDNA3/RDNA4 can do on consoles to show potential what could be achieved in PC. RDNA 2 was released on consoles first before releasing it on PC. Its more about AMD branding.
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Putonahappyface
Member
Is what that bad?
MikeM
Member
Pc complexity that you alludes to.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Gold Member
If this patent is to be believed, it's double the CU count.
RDNA 3 get most of their performance gains from being double the CU count by being chiplets.
But do we really need mid gen refreshes this time around though?
These consoles are much more capable than the previous gen were when they were released.
If that schematic is right, each GCD has 2-3 SEs and each SE has 2 SAs, each SA has 5 WGPs and each WGP has 8 SIMD units, each SIMD unit is a 32-bit ALU.
So if the PS5 has 2 SEs, 4 SAs and 5 dual CUs each SA, each CU has 64 shader cores, you get 5,120 shader cores. It's 2 IPC and you multiply those with the clock rate and get the TF count.
So yeah, you're right it's ~ 2x (well, more than 2x) the shader cores; I had a different number in my head and misspoke. My mistake. It gets a little confusing referring to RDNA3 by the older RDNA2 nomenclature though, I've gotten used to the GCD/WGP etc. way of speaking about it, but yes it's essentially a doubling of the CU count.
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I'm predicting we will get new generation consoles before hardware refreshes this gen unless something is introduced that makes them necessary. 4K gaining traction is what made the last mid-gen consoles necessary but it also lessened the jump in generation we're currently in.
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