I don't think they'll have the same box (in size).
Based on the latest leaks, MS told employees to hide Lockhart in a Xbox One S shell. Also, Tom Warren's tweet hints that the shape of Lockhart is like a more traditional console.
So based on Microsoft's other products like the Surface, both machines will have a similar design language and ship in similar packaging. I based my design off of the MS Surface packaging. It will slide open from the top like the one you posted, except on the broadside. The console components will be layered in the box. Console at the top with the controller in recessed cardboard and "books n shit" and cables in the second layer.
Also, no MS logo. Microsoft doesn't prominently brand their Xbox stuff with the Microsoft logo. Replace it with the Xbox logo and then Series X or Series S in large prominent font.
I also expect a Project Scarlett all red limited edition for launch.