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Xbox Expected to Gain Console Software Market Share over PlayStation & Nintendo By 2026
- Thread starter Lunatic_Gamer
- Start date
- News Business
TheGodfather07
Member
Yeah times have changed.. Microsoft weren't buying publishers for 70b back then. Alot of things have changed since then. Who knows what the future holds?
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ManaByte
Gold Member
People had friends list and achievements on the 360. Didn't stop them from switching to PS4 last gen. Won't stop them from switching again.
kingfey
Banned
That is if the game is successful in the 1st place. Most games don't see profits, due to covering the cost of the game, logistics of the disc production, shipment, and store cut. Each platform has its own sales.
Devs on other hand, get a guaranteed money from subscriptions. That money could be higher than what game makes.
For example, if a game did 3m sales, then you need to break it down for each platforms. Since PC and PS have much bigger userbase, compared to xbox, xbox will have smaller sales. Or split of 40%/40%/20% on total sales (since Ps and Xbox split is 2/1, and pc has 120m steam users, which is 2/1 split).
At 3m sales, xbox will sell 600k copies. At $60 price, they will get $36m. That leaves them with $26m after the 30% cut.
If MS gives them 25m to put it day1 on the service, and allows them to sell the game on the service without 30% cut, they could gain $25m+ 100k copy sold (6m). A total of $31m. That is if they are successful on their 1st year.
Subscription services would generate them alot of money. Which is much guaranteed, than wishing for the product to hit alot of sales.
Most devs go bankrupt, because they depend on their games being successful.
Not every game hits success mark. Battlefield 2042 is a clear example, how an expensive game, can bankrupt your company.
10 Games That Bankrupted Their Studios
It's hard to believe some of these games caused the fall of their studios. Here are 10 video games that bankrupted the studios that made them.
www.thegamer.com
Downfall: 15 Ambitious Games That Bankrupted Their Developers
Game development is an unforgiving business even at the best of times.
www.thegamer.com
you are stretching this too far.
Bo_Hazem
Banned
Riky
$MSFT
It's pretty obvious this will be the case, MS have made smart forward thinking decisions that other companies are scrambling to react to now. Gamepass and Series S being two of these, when the likes of Call Of Duty are hitting Gamepass day one then the balance has changed forever, we'll start to see it all more clearly when Starfield launches later this year.
FrankWza
Member
What did they add that they weren’t supposed to be getting already? It’s addition by subtraction. They take away, so their share grows. And they hitch their wagon to the pc install base. The people chose, over and over for 25 years and generation after generation. They chose PlayStation and Nintendo.Crazy that we went from "XBox has no games" to market leader in the blink of an eye. Crazy.
kingfey
Banned
These console have a long head start compared to xbox.
Ps1 existed on age, where xbox didnt exist. Ps2 sold 150m, when xbox was starting as a baby.
Nintendo is bigger than those 2. Considering the numbers they put out with their consoles.
Its not really a comparison. Its like saying apple computer can get the same market share as windows pc.
FrankWza
Member
PlayStation had less of a lead or somewhat similar to what Nintendo had when PlayStation debuted in time and console generations. Plus, when PlayStation debuted there were other console makers around as well. On top of that, no company came into the console business with as much financial backing as xbox. They’ve been outmaneuvered for decades by smaller and shrewd companies. Now they’re bulldozing their way into acquisitions and they still need the pc install base, need to discount their subscription service for years and need to take franchises away from their competitors instead of creating new IPs. Despite having more resources than most companies on the planet.
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kingfey
Banned
That is not outmaneuvered.
Xbox had 0 presence in Europe, when Sony was cruising around.
They were lucky, that Sony messed up with ps3, or else MS would have played catch up during that generation.
The major difference between the 2, was that Sony had established marketing, While MS was building that market. Xbox one showed clearly, how MS were not prepared for a long term competition.
Also having more resources means nothing, if you dont have connections to the industry. MS passed tons of great deals. One of the worst deals were not buying Sega.
Sega 'lacked enough muscle' to be acquired by Microsoft - MCV/DEVELOP
Former VP of Windows sales opens up on long-rumoured takeover before the Xbox
www.mcvuk.com
The 2nd Sin was not getting Gta 3 exclusive deal.
Xbox rejected GTA 3 because it didn't think Rockstar could make it
A board of Microsoft execs weren't sold
Then there was the missed opportunity to buy Bioware.
Microsoft Rumblings - IGN
1Up has an interview with Microsoft's Shane Kim who reveals the company tried without success to buy Bioware, gives out a few release dates (Forza 2 in June, Halo 3 in September) and looks forward to some future, unannounced, titles.
Luck was not on their side during those time.
Edgelord79
Gold Member
All signs point to maybe.
PropellerEar
Member
Why would they switch?
kingfey
Banned
People follow certain games religiously.
If you get those games, those people will move to your console.
Its why there are alot of timed exclusive games. Timed dlc maps, or even exclusive contents.
Plantoid
Member
I would get a playstation next week if they bought fromsoftware so yeah, people go where their fav games are
S0ULZB0URNE
Member
I can see Xbox taking North America.
PropellerEar
Member
Lognor
Banned
Starfield
Did DFC give the long term console growth going into 2026?
Trying to do their estimate growth numbers per platform holders
Sony = (39/43*X)^1/5
MS = (27/20*X)^1/5
Nintendo= (34/37*X)^1/5
If it was 22% growth over 5 years (4% Annual Growth), we would get
Sony = 2.05% annual growth
MS = 10% annual growth
Nintendo = 2.3% annual growth
If it was 58% growth over 5 years (8% Annual Growth), we would get
Sony = 7.4% annual growth
MS = 16% annual growth
Nintendo = 7.7% annual growth
From CY21; we have
Sony: 8.94%
Xbox: 17.74%*
Nintendo: -5.752%
Trying to do their estimate growth numbers per platform holders
Sony = (39/43*X)^1/5
MS = (27/20*X)^1/5
Nintendo= (34/37*X)^1/5
If it was 22% growth over 5 years (4% Annual Growth), we would get
Sony = 2.05% annual growth
MS = 10% annual growth
Nintendo = 2.3% annual growth
If it was 58% growth over 5 years (8% Annual Growth), we would get
Sony = 7.4% annual growth
MS = 16% annual growth
Nintendo = 7.7% annual growth
From CY21; we have
Sony: 8.94%
Xbox: 17.74%*
Nintendo: -5.752%
PropellerEar
Member
You like to fiddle with knobs?Starfield
kingfey
Banned
If they are roundy. It's gives me the feelings for 805.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Microsoft needs to release some actual blockbuster games first, then maybe…just maybe.
coming from a proud green rat, but cmon ms. I had this series x since day one, bought the halo special edition series x and a series s. Got gamepass bursting out my ass and bought another subscription for my son…..gimme the good shit, then you deserve some extra market share…..
if there isn’t a flood of games next year I’m gonna be disappointed.
coming from a proud green rat, but cmon ms. I had this series x since day one, bought the halo special edition series x and a series s. Got gamepass bursting out my ass and bought another subscription for my son…..gimme the good shit, then you deserve some extra market share…..
if there isn’t a flood of games next year I’m gonna be disappointed.
kingfey
Banned
MS tends to go banger on holidays.
This e3, might give us a glimpse of what is coming next year.
Swift_Star
Banned
And? They couldn’t compete either way and that is not chancing now.
Compete in what ? Game Pass wasn't around 10 years ago.
too much reliance on CoD. When it doesn’t set the world on fire, what will the excuse be?
kingfey
Banned
Have you seen how much Vanguard is selling?
That is a bad COD, and it's still selling like hot cakes.
Swift_Star
Banned
so? It’s more likely a game fills its void than people buying Xbox for it. And CoD will keep being multiplat as already stated multiple times, so that point is moot.
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kingfey
Banned
Marketing.
Call of duty doesn't have to be exclusive to push xbox at all.
Having call of duty Marketing means, tons of publishers will flock to your service.
And when you have that series on gamepass day1, you will see tons of casuals flocking to xbox.
That is what Xbox need to push the sales of their consoles.
Making it exclusive won't really do that much push.
Swift_Star
Banned
That’s a pipe dream and you know it. People aren’t buying Xbox and gamepass for CoD only. It’s not going to happen, but you’re free to believe that.
It’s likely that CoD will lose its relevancy more and more over the years.
kingfey
Banned
I'm expecting to purchase my first house in the bay area next year.
kingfey
Banned
You are seriously underestimating the power of that game.
Swift_Star
Banned
More like you’re overestimating it. The game will keep being multiplat. I said what I said.
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ManaByte
Gold Member
Warzone will, yes. That’s COD multipat. But the serious Warzone players need normal COD MP to level up their weapons.
kingfey
Banned
The game being multiplat means nothing.
The marketing is what MS will get. Having Call of duty name be associated with Xbox, makes it more attractive to casuals.
bushwookie
Banned
That's not realky accurate.
What evidence suggests that anything will even remotely fill that void? When the CoD partnership went from Xbox to Playstation, the playerbase followed platforms. But now for whatever reason, you speculate that when CoD goes the other way, that players will simply abandon CoD. In order to stick with the platform that has basicalky no other multiplayer offerings, and mo track record of being able to produce any. Instead of going to the one that has that in abundance.
You are correct about the point being moot though. At least until the end of next year. At which point it could be anything but.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
You don't buy games through GP, so probably not?
bushwookie
Banned
Maybe you don't, but plenty do. Why not take advantage of the discount?
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
That's the beauty of change and long term effect of acquiring so many developers and publishers then, innit.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
Ah right, there's a discount part. Sure, those would be counted I guess, just like PS+ discounts. I thought he was talking about the games you "get" through the subscription.
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bushwookie
Banned
Is that not what you were referring to?
I mean, people buy games through Gamepass the same way they would through PS+ I imagine. I just imagined both would be included.
Hezekiah
Banned
The next few iterations of CoD (at least) will be multiplatform anyway.
Sales are likely to fall on the Xbox platform due to GamePass, and if the next iteration(s) doesn't get great reviews/carry much hype it will just encourage some to try it for a month or two on the service and not buy it.
kingfey
Banned
Man, have you seen the current COD?
Hezekiah
Banned
What
bushwookie
Banned
That's pretty much my thoughts as well.
It's obvious that MS is doing work to gain marketshare. So I fully expected that work to result in increased marketshare.
Will it result in Xbox having the largest marketshare, or destroying Playstation? Not in a million years.
kingfey
Banned
COD Vanguard is shit now, yet people are still buying that game.
ManaByte
Gold Member
You’ll get MW2 and Warzone this year on PS5. There‘s no 2023 COD. PS5 will continue to get Warzone updates, but if you want to play Black Ops VI, you’ll need a Gamepass device.
Hezekiah
Banned
Pure speculation, nothing more.
ManaByte
Gold Member
Enjoy Starfield on PS5 this November.