• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Wkd BO 12•09-11•16 - Moana a Party pupuper, keeps top spot warm for Disney fam

Status
Not open for further replies.
K

kswiston

Member
K

kswiston

Member
A $155M opening would be $500M domestic with Eragon legs.

EDIT: Also, I don't know if it was brought up, but Secret Life of Pets finally passed Despicable Me 2 last weekend to become Illumination's biggest domestic film to date.


The Domestic Top 5 this year is going to be either Dory or Rogue One, followed by Civil War, SLOP, and The Jungle Book. Worldwide top 5 is going to be Civil War, Finding Dory, Zootopia, and The Jungle Book, with Rogue One thrown somewhere in there depending on overseas legs.

I don't think I have to look through the years on BOM to say that no studio has ever taken all 5 slots of the Worldwide Top 5 in a single year before.
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
kswiston said:
$158.412M knocks The Dark Knight out of the top 10 openings.
Click to expand...

8a6ecc445033f82b5ac8ec04e42ba772.jpg
Click to expand...

Disney is coming for the king.

kswiston said:
The Domestic Top 5 this year is going to be either Dory or Rogue One, followed by Civil War, SLOP, and The Jungle Book. Worldwide top 5 is going to be Civil War, Finding Dory, Zootopia, and The Jungle Book, with Rogue One thrown somewhere in there depending on overseas legs.

I don't think I have to look through the years on BOM to say that no studio has ever taken all 5 slots of the Worldwide Top 5 in a single year before.
Click to expand...

Worldwide Top 5. Damn, Disney.

Next year will be harder. Transformers is straight money. Justice League will have legs if it's any good. Spider-Man is technically Sony's. Despicable Me 3 will probably take the domestic slot that SLOP took this year. And we'll see if Fast 8 holds onto than Furious 7 performance without Walker's death.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
If it gets to 160 opening weekend I could see this movie getting pretty close to 600mil domestic.

Which would put it at, what...150+ over the next highest grossing Star Wars film (TPM?)
 
K

kswiston

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
Just a little north of 600mil is what most sane people were calling for TFA in the last days, on the upper end, wasn't it?
Click to expand...

What are you calling the last days? We had >Avatar predictions from places like Boxoffice.com before the Thursday previews were out.


Adjusted initial box office runs for Empire, Jedi, and TPM were all in the $650-700M range last year, so I figured that was an appropriate range back before the $100M presales announcements. Jurassic World had just broken $650M domestic, so it seemed to be a toss up between that and TFA for the year. It ended up being a tossup between that and TFA for the calendar year.


EDIT: I don't want to get too ahead of things on Rogue One. Anything over $500M would be amazing.
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
kswiston said:
What are you calling the last days? We had >Avatar predictions from places like Boxoffice.com before the Thursday previews were out.

Adjusted initial box office runs for Empire, Jedi, and TPM were all in the $650-700M range last year, so I figured that was an appropriate range back before the $100M presales announcements. Jurassic World had just broken $650M domestic, so it seemed to be a toss up between that and TFA for the year. It ended up being a tossup between that and TFA for the calendar year.

EDIT: I don't want to get too ahead of things on Rogue One. Anything over $500M would be amazing.
Click to expand...

I'm not seeing it that high.

I liked Rogue One a lot, but it's a downer of a film. I'm not seeing the mainstream rewatches as high as they were for TFA.

EDIT: $1.8 billion? Above Jurassic, below TFA.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
MHWilliams said:
I'm not seeing it that high.

I liked Rogue One a lot, but it's a downer of a film. I'm not seeing the mainstream rewatches as high as they were for TFA.
Click to expand...

It's a downer, but I could see it still clicking with people big time. The ending still gives a sense of a New Hope when the credits start.

Also, dat
Darth Voorhees
scene that I have wanted for decades.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
So yeah, 650 mil was what people were calling for TFA as its ceiling just before it opened then?

Just saying, for purposes of comparison, the behemoth that TFA ended up being is so big that there's an outer possibility that Rogue One could actually HIT the mark everyone thought TFA would be lucky to settle at - and there will be people who will consider that disappointing now.

Not saying it could hit 650mil. I think 500 is a lock if it opens at 160 this weekend. But just trying to lend some perspective to the numbers it might pull in re: comparing it to last year's Star Wars film.
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
So yeah, 650 mil was what people were calling for TFA as its ceiling just before it opened then?

Just saying, for purposes of comparison, the behemoth that TFA ended up being is so big that there's an outer possibility that Rogue One could actually HIT the mark everyone thought TFA would be lucky to settle at - and there will be people who will consider that disappointing now.

Not saying it could hit 650mil. I think 500 is a lock if it opens at 160 this weekend. But just trying to lend some perspective to the numbers it might pull in re: comparing it to last year's Star Wars film.
Click to expand...

That's the business. Always gotta do better or you're failing.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
So yeah, 650 mil was what people were calling for TFA as its ceiling just before it opened then?

Just saying, for purposes of comparison, the behemoth that TFA ended up being is so big that there's an outer possibility that Rogue One could actually HIT the mark everyone thought TFA would be lucky to settle at - and there will be people who will consider that disappointing now.

Not saying it could hit 650mil. I think 500 is a lock if it opens at 160 this weekend. But just trying to lend some perspective to the numbers it might pull in re: comparing it to last year's Star Wars film.
Click to expand...

BOM OW estimate was 231M for TFA. I assuming they thought it would surpass 700M with that opening. Boxoffice.com had it at 762M DOM 2 months out.
 
C

CaviarMeths

Member
I think I had Rogue One at $120m opening / $450 domestic back in kswiston's thread earlier in the year. Guess I pulled a Disney with a modest prediction.

Overseas is lower than I thought they would be, but it should still clear a billion WW without much trouble. It's still got a shot at beating Civil War, but would need to increase by quite a bit in China over TFA.
 
K

kswiston

Member
MHWilliams said:
I'm not seeing it that high.

I liked Rogue One a lot, but it's a downer of a film. I'm not seeing the mainstream rewatches as high as they were for TFA.
Click to expand...

It's not more of a downer than I Am Legend.

I Am Legend opened in the second weekend of December, hitting the holidays a week later. I Am Legend was also pretty frontloaded for a December film. Accounting for the radically different previews ($29M vs $1.7M), Rogue One would still hit $470M domestic with I am Legend Legs.

EDIT: Also, my post was mostly talking about The Force Awakens early predictions until that last sentence. I think Rogue One is going to land somewhere between $1-1.25B depending on various factors. Probably closer to the low end of that unless legs are great everywhere or China is huge.

3N16MA said:
My prediction from the prediction thread:

OW: 228M
Domestic: 810M
OS: 1.4B
WW: 2.210B
Click to expand...

I think you were one of the highest somewhat realistic predictions in that thread.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.
Click to expand...

I mean, how much more of a blank check could Kathleen Kennedy get?

I feel like $500 is a lock. Ultron crawled its way to $450 million and that was a rough goddamn film.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
If this thing hits 600 mil Lucasfilm is basically going to do whatever the fuck they want with their cinematic universe. That's greenlights everywhere.

Hell, if it gets over 550 they're all systems go.
Click to expand...

Completely agree. Not to mention the amount of merch they'll sell having a movie out every year. Damn.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Hopefully it would get them to greenlight a Darth Vader movie before James Earl Jones passes.

I'm kind of shocked they haven't already, since that seems like the obvious biggest anthology film they could do. Certainly bigger than Boba Fett.
 
K

kswiston

Member
I am probably in the minority, but I wish that Lucasfilm would stop mining the OT after the Han Solo film, and start filling in the gaps between Jedi and TFA with their spin-off films. Either that, or focus on post Ep9 films.


3N16MA said:
The Han Solo film will fall under Rogue One.

Only dig up this post in a couple of years if I'm right.
Click to expand...

That's the easiest prediction of all time.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
kswiston said:
I am probably in the minority, but I wish that Lucasfilm would stop mining the OT after the Han Solo film, and start filling in the gaps between Jedi and TFA with their spin-off films. Either that, or focus on post Ep9 films.




That's the easiest prediction of all time.
Click to expand...

I only make the easy ones.
 
K

kswiston

Member
3N16MA said:
I only make the easy ones.
Click to expand...

I say that assuming the May date sticks for AVATAR reasons.

Han Solo launches 6 months after the previous Star Wars film and has Infinity War and Jurassic World 2 a few weeks on either side of it. Rogue One has a big ball of nothing outside of some mild audience crossover from Sing. It also has novelty working for it.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Hopefully it would get them to greenlight a Darth Vader movie before James Earl Jones passes.

I'm kind of shocked they haven't already, since that seems like the obvious biggest anthology film they could do. Certainly bigger than Boba Fett.
Click to expand...

Personally I'm not with that. You don't need to over saturate with Vader. I think what they did with him in this movie was perfect, and you get plenty of him in the OT.

I also agree that after the Han Solo movie they should pull away from the familiarity. Do a bounty hunter movie. Something that's removed from the Empire/rebels and with very little ties to the OT.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
I agree on Vader. No need for a solo film.

As much as we know about his past and his life, he is still shrouded in some mystery. Adds to the excitement of seeing him on screen.
 
B

BumRush

Member
New York got / is getting some decent snow right now. I'd expect day time showings to take a hit if much of the North East is similar
 
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
New York got / is getting some decent snow right now. I'd expect day time showings to take a hit if much of the North East is similar
Click to expand...

Maybe, but they are less important than the afternoon and evening shows. It's supposed to be 40 degrees this afternoon in NYC, and even warmer overnight.


So Deadline had early Friday (and less useful weekend) estimates for the top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange were predictably hit by Rogue One, but it could have been much worse. They have Strange down 51% on Friday and Beasts down 52%. If that is ballpark accurate, neither are going to see anything close to a 60% drop this weekend.

Moana is proceeding like it's just another weekend, with Friday being down around 30% from last week.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
Maybe, but they are less important than the afternoon and evening shows. It's supposed to be 40 degrees this afternoon in NYC, and even warmer overnight.


So Deadline had early Friday (and less useful weekend) estimates for the top 10. Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange were predictably hit by Rogue One, but it could have been much worse. They have Strange down 51% on Friday and Beasts down 52%. If that is ballpark accurate, neither are going to see anything close to a 60% drop this weekend.

Moana is proceeding like it's just another weekend, with Friday being down around 30% from last week.
Click to expand...

Good lord at those drops...very impressive.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
So with how Rogue One is doing how many years till Lucasfilm starts trying to go more Marvel and see if they can pull off two films a year instead of one? Money talks.

Post "phase one" that ends with IX in 2019 I could see them shifting to a two film a year model.

kswiston said:
I say that assuming the May date sticks for AVATAR reasons.

Han Solo launches 6 months after the previous Star Wars film and has Infinity War and Jurassic World 2 a few weeks on either side of it. Rogue One has a big ball of nothing outside of some mild audience crossover from Sing. It also has novelty working for it.
Click to expand...

Interesting note about Han Solo, Jason Ward of MakingStarWars who is well known in the Star Wars leaks world says his contacts at Lucasfilm are telling him Han Solo is likely to shift to December 2018. So it may not end up coming in May after all.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
Good lord at those drops...very impressive.
Click to expand...

Doc Strange's theater drop wasn't as bad as it could have been. It lost 833 venues, but is still playing in 1930 theatres. Moana lost 288 venues, and Fantastic Beasts lost 590. This week's sacrifices were Allied (down ~1400 to 1625), Bad Santa 2 (down 1620 to 414), and Incarnate (down 1419 to 318). Hacksaw Ridge and Trolls also saw pretty big drops.

Chezzymann said:
I wonder if moana will increase on Christmas weekend or if Sing will suck the life out of it
Click to expand...

The Christmas period is usually pretty robust, but we have never had huge animated films opening on both Thanksgiving and Xmas as far as I can remember. It's hard to say. I'd guess that Moana drops though. It would be a shame it Moana is stopped dead, because early review point to Sing being another mediocre Illumination film.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
Doc Strange's theater drop wasn't as bad as it could have been. It lost 833 venues, but is still playing in 1930 theatres. Moana lost 288 venues, and Fantastic Beasts lost 590. This week's sacrifices were Allied (down ~1400 to 1625), Bad Santa 2 (down 1620 to 414), and Incarnate (down 1419 to 318). Hacksaw Ridge and Trolls also saw pretty big drops.
Click to expand...

I really didn't think Strange and Beasts could co-exist alongside Rogue One, but I guess I was wrong...
 
K

kswiston

Member
Cheebo said:
Interesting note about Han Solo, Jason Ward of MakingStarWars who is well known in the Star Wars leaks world says his contacts at Lucasfilm are telling him Han Solo is likely to shift to December 2018. So it may not end up coming in May after all.
Click to expand...

Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?
 
S

Slayven

Member
kswiston said:
Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?
Click to expand...

Read that as Mortal Instruments, and I was like, didn't they already try that
 
G

gamz

Member
kswiston said:
Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?
Click to expand...

No idea. They can't go head to head. That would be stupid for both studios.
 
C

CaviarMeths

Member
Illumination is exactly the animation studio that the world deserves after it spent over 3 billion dollars watching Ice Age movies.
 
L

Lifejumper

Member
There is supposedly a big LucasFilm meeting in January that will decide the future of the franchise.

I think they will decide there if they will move the Han Solo prequel.
 
S

Sulik2

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Hopefully it would get them to greenlight a Darth Vader movie before James Earl Jones passes.

I'm kind of shocked they haven't already, since that seems like the obvious biggest anthology film they could do. Certainly bigger than Boba Fett.
Click to expand...

I would love to see a Vader film, but Star Wars is still mostly a family film franchise. A film of Vader murdering the last remnants of the Jedi set ten years after sith wouldn't exactly be a family friendly film.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Slayven said:
Read that as Mortal Instruments, and I was like, didn't they already try that
Click to expand...

Mortal Engines was the first book in a post-apocalyptic, steampunk young adult series. Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh are writing/producing, but it's being directed by one of Jackson's second unit directors/visual effects supervisors from the Middle Earth stuff.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
kswiston said:
Assuming Avatar doesn't get delayed again, I wonder how that will work. Fox has to know that they have a stronger claim on the Dec 21st weekend, even if it's primarily overseas. Kick Mortal Engines out of Dec 14th?
Click to expand...

Didn't Signorney Weaver the other day say Avatar 2 may not make it out by December 2018 as well?
 
K

kswiston

Member
Cheebo said:
Didn't Signorney Weaver the other day say Avatar 2 may not make it out by December 2018 as well?
Click to expand...

Maybe?

That would be even more interesting though, since Ep9 is in 2019. Disney could strong arm Cameron out of the pre-Xmas slot with that. If he wanted that to be his release window, he shouldn't wait a decade between films :p

I think that Ep9 is still tentatively scheduled for May, but I doubt that sticks.
 
G

gamz

Member
kswiston said:
Maybe?

That would be even more interesting though, since Ep9 is in 2019. Disney could strong arm Cameron out of the pre-Xmas slot with that. If he wanted that to be his release window, he shouldn't wait a decade between films :p

I think that Ep9 is still tentatively scheduled for May, but I doubt that sticks.
Click to expand...

They could but they also have Avatarland to promote.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
gamz said:
They could but they also have Avatarland to promote.
Click to expand...

If the choice is Star Wars or Avatar getting the prime slot it would be Star Wars. They have Star Wars Land as well. And I doubt there is a single person who thinks Avatar Land is more of a priority for Disney than Star Wars Land.

This is what Weaver said about December 2018 a few days back:
When asked about the Avatar 2 release date, however, Weaver cast doubt on its viability. “We haven’t started it, so I don’t know how realistic that date is, but I think it’s going to be very exciting,”
Click to expand...
http://www.slashfilm.com/avatar-2-release-date-delay/

At this point Star Wars will be pretty fully locked in as THE december franchise with 2015, 2016, & 2017. I could see Disney forcing Camerons hand here and schedule Star Wars against it to get Fox to blink and shift Avatar to Summer 2019 or along those lines. They will have owned December with Star Wars for 3 years straight by 2018.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Wkd B.O. 11•09-11•18 - Grinch steals box office, over 'lord and dragon tattoo'd girl
0
749
xaosslug replied
  • Locked
Wkd BO 11•25-27•16 - Disney not-a-Princess says 'aloha!' to not-Harry Potter
2 3 4 5
248
28K
AnotherDayAnotherDollar replied
  • Locked
Wkd BO 12•16-18•16 - Mele kalikimaka for Disney as Rogue One & Moana #2
4 5 6 7 8
375
41K
AntraxSuicide replied
  • Locked
Wkd BO 12•02-04•16 - Hana hou for Moana, no more da kine competition
2 3
106
14K
S1kkZ replied
Wkd B.O. 09•07-09•18 - None can stop The Nun as audiences decide to solve a problem like "the nun" by going to see it
2
815
Tesseract replied
Top Bottom