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Wkd BO 03•03-05•17 - Peeps Get Out to see R-rated Logan & Xavier Shack up, kid in tow

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kswiston

Member
Since we are talking about Superhero films from Fox and WB, I guess it is a decent time to post an updated version of a chart I made back when Suicide Squad was wrapping up.

Here is a WW-China gross to budget comparison of all of the major superhero films released since the MCU started with Iron Man. I left out China because not all superhero films received Chinese releases (especially before 2012), and while Chinese grosses are good for inflating worldwide totals, they don't add nearly as much to the studio's bottom line (per theatre dollar spent) vs money made domestically or in other overseas territories.

Logan and Lego Batman are still in release, so I have given them conservative placeholder totals at the bottom.

Code:
Title				Worldwide minus China		Reported Budget		Gross/Budget Ratio
Avengers				1434				220			6.52x
Avengers: Age of Ultron			1165				265			4.40x
Iron Man 3				1094				200			5.47x
The Dark Knight Rises			1032				230			4.49x
The Dark Knight				1005				185			5.43x
Captain America: Civil War		962				250			3.85x
Deadpool				783				58			13.5x
Batman v Superman			777				250			3.11x
Suicide Squad				746				175			4.26x
Amazing Spider-Man			709				230			3.08x
Guardians of the Galaxy			677				195			3.47x
X-Men: Days of Future Past		632				200			3.16x
Iron Man 2				616				200			3.08x
The Amazing Spider-Man 2		615				290			2.12x
Man of Steel				605				225			2.69x
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	598				170			3.52x
Thor: The Dark World			589				170			3.46x
Big Hero 6				574				165			3.48x
Iron Man				570				150			3.80x
Doctor Strange				568				165			3.44x
Thor					449				150			2.99x
X-Men: Apocalypse			420				178			2.36x
Ant-Man					414				130			3.18x
The Wolverine				374				120			3.12x
X-Men Origins: Wolverine		373				150			2.49x
Captain America: The First Avenger	371				140			2.65x
X-men: First Class			354				150			2.36x
The Incredible Hulk			254				150			1.69x
Green Lantern				220				200			1.10x
The Green Hornet			208				120			1.73x
Watchmen				185				130			1.42x
Fantastic Four (2015)			168				120			1.40x
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE					611				179			3.41x

Lego Batman Movie*			300 				80			3.75x
Logan*					500				97			5.15x

Anything above 3x is generally good/successful. Anything under 2x is flop territory. The middle ground between those is more ambiguous.
 

Sulik2

Member
That Deadpool multiplier. Just a testament to how well used the money was for that movie to make a good film that everyone liked seeing. Avengers is pretty bonkers too.
 

J_Viper

Member
Iron Man 3 being so high up is still a mind-boggling. It's fucking horrible.

And it looks like there's a noticeable drop between Civil War and Ultron. I wonder what caused that, because CW is undeniably the better film.
 

Dysun

Member
Apocalypse was certainly a mediocre movie, but the lack of Jackman in a feature role had to have played a big part. It will be interesting to see how these X-Men movies shake out going forward without Jackman if they are separated from Deadpool.
 
And it looks like there's a noticeable drop between Civil War and Ultron. I wonder what caused that, because CW is undeniably the better film.

Captain America was still sold as a Cap movie. Yes for the fans its "Avenger's 2.5" but for the ultra casuals the name Avengers still means an event film
 
As far as I can tell, no superhero movie without Batman or Iron Man has crossed $1 billion. The rich get richer.

I suspect GotG2 will cross it, or if not it then Deadpool 2.
 

Prompto

Banned
As far as I can tell, no superhero movie without Batman or Iron Man has crossed $1 billion. The rich get richer.

I suspect GotG2 will cross it, or if not it then Deadpool 2.
Call me crazy but I honestly think Thor Ragnorok has a slim chance at a billion too. Thor/Hulk/Loki/Doctor Strange is a good combination.
 

kswiston

Member
Some of this will depend on China. Thor 2 made $55M in China. Every other phase 2 and 3 film has made at least $95M there.
 

J_Viper

Member
Captain America was still sold as a Cap movie. Yes for the fans its "Avenger's 2.5" but for the ultra casuals the name Avengers still means an event film
True, true, but RJD and Spidey were part of the marketing.

That, plus the glowing review, had me thinking it could pass Ultron easily.

Ultron was bad.

It's like a big budget Asylum film. It's a knockoff. There's not a single thing about it that wasn't done so much better in the first Avengers.

Okay, Cap's suit was better. That's about it.

You forgot Thor 2.

We are Thor 2
 
I will defend Iron Man 3 until the day I die.

image.php


I liked it too.
 
Call me crazy, but if you note the decrease in multiplier with year of release, you start to see budget escalation and decline in multiplier, though that doesn't mean much when the absolute number is higher.
But imagine if Infinite War bombs for a moment, and what that would do. We're just waiting for the inevitable MCU blow-up now. Not that Disney marketing will let that happen, but costumers can be unpredictable.

Also, what the fucking hell at ASM2 costing 290 million. That movie did not look like it cost almost 300 million to make.

I do want to know how they kept the Deadpool budget so low. Aside from not having multiple X-men in it that is. But they used quite a bit of CG in it yet the budget is barely 60 million. Did they skimp on actor wages by giving them higher gross percentages? (because hooohoohoo boy is that a payday or what)

and lastly, Iron Man 3 gave us
Trevor
. I was not expecting that when I saw it. So that was worth it.
 
I do want to know how they kept the Deadpool budget so low. Aside from not having multiple X-men in it that is. But they used quite a bit of CG in it yet the budget is barely 60 million. Did they skimp on actor wages by giving them higher gross percentages? (because hooohoohoo boy is that a payday or what)

The director of the movie (Tim Miller) was also the head of the VFX studio that worked on it. So basically, in addition to having to write around a low budget (the forgot my guns in the car thing, for example), he knew exactly how do to things to get the most VFX bang for the buck.
 
It still blows my mind that an R-rated Deadpool film made only $40 million less domestically than Civil War did and out grossed Batman vs Superman.

Also, funny to see that with each subsequent Wolverine movie, the budget kept decreasing, as the films increased quality wise.
 
It still blows my mind that an R-rated Deadpool film made only $40 million less domestically than Civil War did and out grossed Batman vs Superman.

Also, funny to see that with each subsequent Wolverine movie, the budget kept decreasing, as the films increased quality wise.

It's not that complicated. Lower budget, lower stakes financially, less meddling from corporate, more freedom for the creatives.
 

kswiston

Member
It's not that complicated. Lower budget, lower stakes financially, less meddling from corporate, more freedom for the creatives.

I am really curious to see if the success of both Deadpool and Logan leads to more experimentation with mid-budget superhero films. No one wants to take a risk at $200-300M, where the breakeven point is $650-800M, but something like Logan would be perfectly fine making $300M.
 
I am really curious to see if the success of both Deadpool and Logan leads to more experimentation with mid-budget superhero films. No one wants to take a risk at $200-300M, where the breakeven point is $650-800M, but something like Logan would be perfectly fine making $300M.

As much as I love the MCU I'd love to see them take one of their properties and try one of these smaller budget films and go for a totally different tone. A lot of the MCU films still have their own vibe but are also similar in a lot of ways. They don't have anything as totally different as Logan or Deadpool are.

That said I'm not sure which property they would use in that sort of space, especially with a lot if those tier characters now on Netflix.
 
I am really curious to see if the success of both Deadpool and Logan leads to more experimentation with mid-budget superhero films. No one wants to take a risk at $200-300M, where the breakeven point is $650-800M, but something like Logan would be perfectly fine making $300M.

Darkman Returns!

Blade 4!

Lobo....

We kind of already had one in the form of Chronicle though. I know that's not 'mainline comics', but budget versus profit was never a restricting reason in itself. I'm having trouble coming up with examples of recent superhero films bombing hard, actually. Except Max Steel, but nobody cares about that one anyway.
 
As much as I love the MCU I'd love to see them take one of their properties and try one of these smaller budget films and go for a totally different tone. A lot of the MCU films still have their own vibe but are also similar in a lot of ways. They don't have anything as totally different as Logan or Deadpool are.

That said I'm not sure which property they would use in that sort of space, especially with a lot if those tier characters now on Netflix.

The thing with the MCU is that their floor for a connected movie probably sits somewhere around where Ant-Man ended up, if not a little bit higher than that (as long as it is competent, and even the worst MCU movies are competent). I mean Ant-Man behind the scenes is probably the worst case scenario for a Marvel movie (long time in gestation, rewrites and a director change a couple months before shooting) and it was still well liked critically and by audiences. And they spend like it. If they were to do something like that, it wouldn't be for the tonal distance, it would be because they decided they wanted to make even more money on the movie than they already are. In other words, they could make a tonally distinct $100-120 million dollar movie and still make their money back right now, they just don't have a good reason to do so.

I am really curious to see if the success of both Deadpool and Logan leads to more experimentation with mid-budget superhero films. No one wants to take a risk at $200-300M, where the breakeven point is $650-800M, but something like Logan would be perfectly fine making $300M.

I think it's possible that we see it, it just won't come from DC or Marvel. Fox will probably take a few more stabs at it (and the success they're having with Legion on TV helps that as well), but I think it's more likely that other studios will option comics from other companies and make those types of movies than DC/WB or Marvel/Disney turning around and making them.
 
The thing with the MCU is that their floor for a connected movie probably sits somewhere around where Ant-Man ended up, if not a little bit higher than that (as long as it is competent, and even the worst MCU movies are competent). I mean Ant-Man behind the scenes is probably the worst case scenario for a Marvel movie (long time in gestation, rewrites and a director change a couple months before shooting) and it was still well liked critically and by audiences. And they spend like it. If they were to do something like that, it wouldn't be for the tonal distance, it would be because they decided they wanted to make even more money on the movie than they already are. In other words, they could make a tonally distinct $100-120 million dollar movie and still make their money back right now, they just don't have a good reason to do so.



I think it's possible that we see it, it just won't come from DC or Marvel. Fox will probably take a few more stabs at it (and the success they're having with Legion on TV helps that as well), but I think it's more likely that other studios will option comics from other companies and make those types of movies than DC/WB or Marvel/Disney turning around and making them.

Well what's crazy is we've never even seen an MCU film with that low of a budget or what it would look / be like. Pretty much every MCU film from the beginning has cost $140 million at least to make.

I would just be really curious what one of their films would be like if they tried a totally different tone and made it only like a $97 million budget like Logan. A smaller more intimate film without all the bloat
 
image.php


I liked it too.
tumblr_npxa4ehB7R1s27326o2_r1_540.gif

No need. People who hates Iron Man 3 must hate The Nice Guys and Kiss Kiss Bang Bang as well, so they have bad taste.
I get what people don't like about it and it does have flaws but... it's a Shane Black Iron Man movie. C'mon, that's dope.
As much as I love the MCU I'd love to see them take one of their properties and try one of these smaller budget films and go for a totally different tone. A lot of the MCU films still have their own vibe but are also similar in a lot of ways. They don't have anything as totally different as Logan or Deadpool are.

That said I'm not sure which property they would use in that sort of space, especially with a lot if those tier characters now on Netflix.
Mid budget Ryan Gosling Hawkguy movie. That's gold right there.
 

Sesha

Member
As much as I love the MCU I'd love to see them take one of their properties and try one of these smaller budget films and go for a totally different tone. A lot of the MCU films still have their own vibe but are also similar in a lot of ways. They don't have anything as totally different as Logan or Deadpool are.

That said I'm not sure which property they would use in that sort of space, especially with a lot if those tier characters now on Netflix.

Runaways could easily have been it, but then The O.C.aways happened. Ms. Marvel is too soon. Characters like The Hood, Hellcat and Moon Knight would probably be more fitted for TV.

We need that Heroes for Hire movie. Sadly that's out of the window as well with the Perlmutter/Feige feud.
 
Well what's crazy is we've never even seen an MCU film with that low of a budget or what it would look / be like. Pretty much every MCU film from the beginning has cost $140 million at least to make.

I would just be really curious what one of their films would be like if they tried a totally different tone and made it only like a $97 million budget like Logan. A smaller more intimate film without all the bloat

You're kind of missing my point. The problem at Marvel isn't the budget. It's that big action/adventure blockbuster is making them so much money that there's really no good reason for them to change the formula at all. Without Deadpool/Logan, Fox is stuck with an X-Men property that's currently in decline, and even at it's highest (DOFP) was coming off a trilogy that almost completely poisoned the well, so they knew that decline was possible already. Fox needed to diversify. Marvel doesn't.
 
You're kind of missing my point. The problem at Marvel isn't the budget. It's that big action/adventure blockbuster is making them so much money that there's really no good reason for them to change the formula at all. Without Deadpool/Logan, Fox is stuck with an X-Men property that's currently in decline, and even at it's highest (DOFP) was coming off a trilogy that almost completely poisoned the well, so they knew that decline was possible already. Fox needed to diversify. Marvel doesn't.

Nah, I actually totally get your point. I'm not saying they SHOULD do a low budget different tone film. I absolutely get why they go strictly the mega block buster route

I'm saying, I'm just really curious what a smaller budget, more intimate Marvel film would look like
 
Rth Saturday estimates:

Kong - $24.6M
Logan - $17.1M
Get Out - $9.4M

Very strong increases. I'm actually over the moon about the Kong number; it's way ahead of what I thought it'd do this weekend and could make it to $150M domestically if it doesn't fall apart in the face of Beauty and the Beast.
 
Deadline is saying Kongs going to end up between $58 million and $60 million.
In late night industry estimates, the Warner Bros./Legendary monster movie is +18% from Friday’s $20.2M for a Saturday of $23.9M putting the great ape’s opening between $58.5M-$60.7M. On the high end, that’s a 35% improvement on the pic’s projections four weeks ago, and $10M higher from where we originally thought Kong would land.

True, a $60M No. 1 opening in March is noteworthy, and we’ve seen other movies like Divergent 1 & 2 open to $52M-plus during this month, but damn, Kong: Skull Island is bloody expensive at $185M along with an estimated global P&A of $136M putting a cloud over its profitability. And that’s what unfortunately deflates any major celebration of the gorilla’s No. 1 opening.
 

kswiston

Member
$61M for Kong. Tracking was $40-45M. I guess Bronson was right.

$37.8M for Logan, down 57%. Domestic total is now $152M. Logan will pass X-Men Apocalypse's domestic total tomorrow or Tuesday depending on weekend actuals.
 

gamz

Member
$61M for Kong. Tracking was $40-45M. I guess Bronson was right.

$37.8M for Logan, down 57%. Domestic total is now $152M. Logan will pass X-Men Apocalypse's domestic total tomorrow or Tuesday depending on weekend actuals.

I was thinking 50M on the high side. 61M is really good. WOM must be great.
 
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