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Will raytracing usher in a mid-gen console refresh?

RaySoft

Member
I've been really solid on the point that at (at least) Sony won't release a PS5 Pro. I would say the same about Xbox, but we all know now that MS has actually adopted the PC route, instead of the usual console lifecycle.
With MS having, seemingly, estranged themselves from the usual practices of the console business, can we expect them to release updated hardware at a higher interval rate than the typical console manufacturer?
In my mind the next-gen hardware is really good and on point, so like almost every other console gen. do we really need a refresh?

Last gen both MS and Sony released a refreshed hardware to archeive that coveted 4K goal. It was somewhat understandable, since the current gen (One S, PS4) were not made for that kind of resolution. 4K was becomming mainstream and there was a void to fill.
This gen though, some would say the same now as 8K looms above the horizon. In difference from the gen past however is that 8K is nowhere near to be "achievable" by todays standards. (adoptionrate will be much less than 1080P to 4K)

BUT the thing that could make both companies release new hardware would maybe be raytracing?
Both next-gen consoles will probably ship with "weak" RT abilities. Probably much less than present nVidia cards on the market already.
nVidia are on the steps to release their next gfx cards right before these next-gen consoles releases, obviously dwarfing their RT capabilities.

TLDR; My thinking is that the more traction RT gets, the more likely we will see a console refresh this gen. What do you think GAF?
 
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llien

Member
BUT the thing that would make both companies release new hardware could be raytracing.

How do you find reflections/shades in GoW (running on a bloody 7870), does it not look insanely cool?
No RT tech, outdated card.
Fast too.

AMD, together with Sony and Microsoft are the gatekeepers for RT stuff, if they don't want to, it won't fly (nobody would develop games just for NV customers).

Sony has released PS4 Pro, not to miss VR train, 4k will become a thing once game devs will target it (which should be this gen though).
 

RaySoft

Member
How do you find reflections/shades in GoW (running on a bloody 7870), does it not look insanely cool?
No RT tech, outdated card.
Fast too.

AMD, together with Sony and Microsoft are the gatekeepers for RT stuff, if they don't want to, it won't fly (nobody would develop games just for NV customers).

Sony has released PS4 Pro, not to miss VR train, 4k will become a thing once game devs will target it (which should be this gen though).
I agree with your point, but my thought was that if RT gets huge traction (or call it hype in media) The decision makers at either company could actually change their minds?
 
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VFXVeteran

Banned
I've been really solid on the point that at (at least) Sony won't release a PS5 Pro. I would say the same about Xbox, but we all know now that MS has actually adopted the PC route, instead of the usual console lifecycle.
With MS having, seemingly, estranged themselves from the usual practices of the console business, can we expect them to release updated hardware at a higher interval rate than the typical console manufacturer?
In my mind the next-gen hardware is really good and on point, so like almost every other console gen. do we really need a refresh?

Last gen both MS and Sony released a refreshed hardware to archeive that coveted 4K goal. It was somewhat understandable, since the current gen (One S, PS4) were not made for that kind of resolution. 4K was becomming mainstream and there was a void to fill.
This gen though, some would say the same now as 8K looms above the horizon. In difference from the gen past however is that 8K is nowhere near to be "achievable" by todays standards. (adoptionrate will be much less than 1080P to 4K)

BUT the thing that could make both companies release new hardware would maybe be raytracing?
Both next-gen consoles will probably ship with "weak" RT abilities. Probably much less than present nVidia cards on the market already.
nVidia are on the steps to release their next gfx cards right before these next-gen consoles releases, obviously dwarfing their RT capabilities.

TLDR; My thinking is that the more traction RT gets, the more likely we will see a console refresh this gen. What do you think GAF?

Good post OP. But we have to consider cost. As tech requirements go up, cost goes up substantially. Would Sony/MS sell $1k videogame machines? Doubt it. It would also require revamping their entire architecture since the GPUs are integral to RT.

In short, I don't see it happening this gen.
 

Handy Fake

Member
The more I'm thinking about it as time goes on, the more I think the only way to have proper and constant raytracing is to have a dedicated die for it.
Although that does make me wonder about the Sony patent for dual GPU use.
 
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Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
I dont think we will be seeing a midgen refresh, especially not because of Raytracing.
Devs will just get clever with lighting.
With the right authoring RT isnt even needed to make a game look stellar.

If a dev can get similar results at better performance without RT, they will go that route.
Realtime engines can get really good results without the cost that comes with RT so I wouldnt be shocked if some devs just dont bother with RT yet still have some of the best looking games of the generation.
If you have a relatively linear game that you can carefully author a lot of what the player will ever see then you could bake everything you need without needing realtime raytracing.
 

rofif

Can’t Git Gud
I am already tired of hearing ray tracing. It's just a bad performance.
Rasterized graphics and techniques catched up to the point that ray tracing is not that impressive. It should start happening 10 or 15 years ago
 

RaySoft

Member
Good post OP. But we have to consider cost. As tech requirements go up, cost goes up substantially. Would Sony/MS sell $1k videogame machines? Doubt it. It would also require revamping their entire architecture since the GPUs are integral to RT.

In short, I don't see it happening this gen.
Thx for the reply! As cost goes, this would happen mid gen, as in 3 years time, even tech not released today would be cheaper at that time.
And I'm not saying that they (MS/Sony) would release a full "core-overhaul" , just more CU's and a considerably better RT core. But I wasn't speculating specific hardware per say, only stronger RT cores, as in the deciding factor to release a refresh (just as 4K did)
The next-gen consoles RT features will be miniscule compared to the new nVidias cards, so all comes down to how well it's being received by the media/public.
 
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RaySoft

Member
I am already tired of hearing ray tracing. It's just a bad performance.
Rasterized graphics and techniques catched up to the point that ray tracing is not that impressive. It should start happening 10 or 15 years ago
It's kinda my whole case... RT performance of today is puny.. In a few years it would be exponentially better though.
 
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Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
I am already tired of hearing ray tracing. It's just a bad performance.
Rasterized graphics and techniques catched up to the point that ray tracing is not that impressive. It should start happening 10 or 15 years ago
It's kinda my whole case... RT performance of today is puny.. In a few years it would be exponentially better though.

Maybe on consoles.

Nvidia here not fucking around:
v
NVIDIA Titan - 48 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 - 24 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 - 20 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 - 16 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 - 12 GB GDDR6X

3DMark Time Spy Extreme 'Rumored' Performance Numbers:

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 Founders Edition - 10,000 Graphics Score
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 Founders Edition - 9,000
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 Founders Edition - 7,300
MSI Nvidia RTX 2080 Ti Lightning Z (OC) - 7665
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2080 Super - 5549
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2080 - 5024

Basically Nvidias cheapest, weakest card will be trouncing the PS5 and XSX while having insane RT performance.
On PC devs are def going to keep using the technology more and more.


chefs_kiss.gif
 

RaySoft

Member
Maybe on consoles.

Nvidia here not fucking around:
v
NVIDIA Titan - 48 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 - 24 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 - 20 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 - 16 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 - 12 GB GDDR6X

3DMark Time Spy Extreme 'Rumored' Performance Numbers:

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 Founders Edition - 10,000 Graphics Score
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 Founders Edition - 9,000
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 Founders Edition - 7,300
MSI Nvidia RTX 2080 Ti Lightning Z (OC) - 7665
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2080 Super - 5549
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2080 - 5024

Basically Nvidias cheapest, weakest card will be trouncing the PS5 and XSX while having insane RT performance.
On PC devs are def going to keep using the technology more and more.


chefs_kiss.gif
Actually, nvidias new cards were my whole point of this thread...
But would it's impact be enough to warrant a new console refresh down the line? (i.e. if RT is adopted by the mainstream to be the 4K of yesterday)
 
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rofif

Can’t Git Gud
Maybe on consoles.

Nvidia here not fucking around:
v
NVIDIA Titan - 48 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 - 24 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 - 20 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 - 16 GB GDDR6X
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 - 12 GB GDDR6X

3DMark Time Spy Extreme 'Rumored' Performance Numbers:

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090 Founders Edition - 10,000 Graphics Score
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 Founders Edition - 9,000
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 Founders Edition - 7,300
MSI Nvidia RTX 2080 Ti Lightning Z (OC) - 7665
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2080 Super - 5549
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2080 - 5024

Basically Nvidias cheapest, weakest card will be trouncing the PS5 and XSX while having insane RT performance.
On PC devs are def going to keep using the technology more and more.


chefs_kiss.gif
Just ran timespy extreme (3700x/2070) and I get 4600. 10k is what I would expect from 3090 if not more
 

RaySoft

Member
How do you find reflections/shades in GoW (running on a bloody 7870), does it not look insanely cool?
No RT tech, outdated card.
Fast too.

AMD, together with Sony and Microsoft are the gatekeepers for RT stuff, if they don't want to, it won't fly (nobody would develop games just for NV customers).

Sony has released PS4 Pro, not to miss VR train, 4k will become a thing once game devs will target it (which should be this gen though).
Just wait til everyone experiences full raytracing.... it's a whole other ball game.
 

Bryank75

Banned
Yes, there will be a mid-gen refresh but ray tracing is just one reason..... it's just the beginning of that tech. There are always new technologies and advancements being developed that need to be incorporated.

Loading will need to scale up with all of those demands too.
 
Maybe. But the consoles are already plenty powerful. They will be targeting 30fps gaming so there will be enough juice to last the generation. It will take a long while for RT to get significant traction because even the majority of PC gamers don't have RT ready cards.
 

cireza

Member
It depends on the adoption rate of the technique. But the hardware are already designed to enable ray-tracing, so ray-tracing alone won't be a sufficient reason for a refresh in my opinion.
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Actually, nvidias new cards were my whole point of this thread...
But would it's impact be enough to warrant a new console refresh down the line? (i.e. if RT is adopted by the mainstream to be the 4K of yesterday)

I doubt they would do a refresh for RTs sake.
While it is absolutely amazing, I think devs will be clever about its usage after the initial Raytracing as a talking point phase.
Careful authoring is enough, for instance devs might only use RT for AO or GI instead of the full wormage.
Reflections are nice and all, but seriously screen space reflections and some good cubemaps are enough.
Heck you could even set it up so that only actual mirrors in your game use Raytracing, everything else is SSR/Cubemapped.

RT wont be the reason for a midgen refresh, and pushing for native 4K needs to die, keep working on clever upscaling techniques that are cheaper than full fat 4K and pump up everything else.
 

Codes 208

Member
Ray racing by itself? Nah. It almost feels obvious Microsoft will create mid-gen iterations since theyre dubbing the next gen as simply xbox And we already have two models in the series S and X. Down the line I expect to see more series sku’s.
 

rofif

Can’t Git Gud
Yes, there will be a mid-gen refresh but ray tracing is just one reason..... it's just the beginning of that tech. There are always new technologies and advancements being developed that need to be incorporated.

Loading will need to scale up with all of those demands too.
If they will double down on RT, next gen will age very soon
 

Bryank75

Banned
If they will double down on RT, next gen will age very soon
They are going in the right direction but physics need a lot of work and power to achieve what they should while still having a beautiful game..... consoles still have a lot of cycles left in them....
 

Kerlurk

Banned
 
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llien

Member
if RT gets huge traction (or call it hype in media) The decision makers at either company could actually change their minds?
You can urge people to buy something via media campaign.
But it is nearly impossible to make game developers invest into technology that won't even run for most consumers, by just hyping it (you can get it if you pay for it, though).

And, as you've mentioned pure RT approach: cards would need to get about 100 times faster (and that includes insane memory bandwidth). So color me skeptical.


Basically Nvidias cheapest, weakest card will be trouncing the PS5 and XSX while having insane RT performance.
Remind us, how much that "cheapest" card is rumored to cost. :messenger_beaming:
Two times of "I'm a 2080Ti user, and even I switch it off" is pretty far from "insane performance".
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
Rasterized shadows and lighting was really good this generation, and will get better next generation.

That leaves reflections, which is such a small thing in most games.

I got the Pro this generation, but won't this generation, if there is one.

The main "beef" with reflections is whether you want or need to see things that arent in frame.
Screen Space Reflections work very well for things on screen, and add in a cubemap for the environment and non-dynamic objects you really are sorted.
If your environment will greatly benefit from having super accurate reflections then sure it makes sense.....but reflections in most cases is probably the least useful use of RT to enhance a scene.

Multi bounce GI and AO from a visual perspective can change the entire look of a scene where as reflections being super accurate wont really. Especially if you are already using SSR and Cubemaps.
 

RaySoft

Member
You can urge people to buy something via media campaign.
But it is nearly impossible to make game developers invest into technology that won't even run for most consumers, by just hyping it (you can get it if you pay for it, though).

And, as you've mentioned pure RT approach: cards would need to get about 100 times faster (and that includes insane memory bandwidth). So color me skeptical.



Remind us, how much that "cheapest" card is rumored to cost. :messenger_beaming:
Two times of "I'm a 2080Ti user, and even I switch it off" is pretty far from "insane performance".
RT efficiency is more core and speed related than memory bandwith tough...
 

Black_Stride

do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
You can urge people to buy something via media campaign.
But it is nearly impossible to make game developers invest into technology that won't even run for most consumers, by just hyping it (you can get it if you pay for it, though).

And, as you've mentioned pure RT approach: cards would need to get about 100 times faster (and that includes insane memory bandwidth). So color me skeptical.



Remind us, how much that "cheapest" card is rumored to cost. :messenger_beaming:
Two times of "I'm a 2080Ti user, and even I switch it off" is pretty far from "insane performance".

Doubling or even near doubling the RT performance of a 2080 would cut the render time of the frame substantially, yes that is insane performance. Add in 12GB of GDDR6X Vram.....mate!
For ~400 dollars.....fuck yes thats a fucking steal.

The RTX 3060 in its rumored trim is going to be a joke of great card, I see it climbing the Steam Survey charts very very quickly.
 

RaySoft

Member
I doubt they would do a refresh for RTs sake.
While it is absolutely amazing, I think devs will be clever about its usage after the initial Raytracing as a talking point phase.
Careful authoring is enough, for instance devs might only use RT for AO or GI instead of the full wormage.
Reflections are nice and all, but seriously screen space reflections and some good cubemaps are enough.
Heck you could even set it up so that only actual mirrors in your game use Raytracing, everything else is SSR/Cubemapped.

RT wont be the reason for a midgen refresh, and pushing for native 4K needs to die, keep working on clever upscaling techniques that are cheaper than full fat 4K and pump up everything else.
I agree with everything you say, only that my "4k" point was just meant as a "term" media could latch onto, like they did when it came. Still that was enough for a refresh this gen. Let's say that RT experieces the same buzz? (we wont know for at least 2 years from now)
 

llien

Member
RT efficiency is more core and speed related than memory bandwith tough...
Not sure what "speed related" is supposed to mean.
For mem bw:

Recent work demonstrates that real-time ray tracing is possible for primary rays and hard shadows[10][8][11][2], but it is still an open question as to when it will become feasible to ray trace soft shadows and other advanced effects in real time.
...
As the data in Table 2 shows, rendering with divergent secondary rays can increase bandwidth consumed between main memory and L2 by an order of magnitude or more. However, for scenes with many visible triangles, rendering with divergent secondary rays can increase bandwidth consumed by two orders of magnitude or more. In Figure 2 and Figure 3, we extrapolate these data to rendering at 60 fps. Bandwidth demand for scenes with few visible triangles is within current memory-to-core bandwidth rates, but bandwidth demand for scenes with many visible triangles exceeds current bandwidth rates by more than an order of magnitude.

Just in case:
"order of magnitude" => roughly 10 times
"two orders of magnitude" => roughly 100 times
 

llien

Member
Doubling or even near doubling the RT performance of a 2080 would cut the render time of the frame substantially, yes that is insane performance. Add in 12GB of GDDR6X Vram.....mate!
For ~400 dollars.....fuck yes thats a fucking steal.

Let's go over it step by step:
1) Current runtime RT is essentially some noise, which gets denoised. Heavily.
2) Performance hit was insane even on the obnoxiously priced GPU even for mild effects, yet people dream of full RT. There is nothing "insane" about it, even double of "OMG it's so bad I switch it off" is far from great.
3) 12GB of that type of ram would cost, let's be optimistic and take $12 per GB, $144 just for RAM chips. I don't follow neither $400 reference, nor why would we need 12GB of VRAM for GPUs. When referencing card performance, I'd appreciate if we'd use some known cards as a reference, 3060 is just 4 figures for me at this point.
 
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RaySoft

Member
Not sure what "speed related" is supposed to mean.
For mem bw:

Recent work demonstrates that real-time ray tracing is possible for primary rays and hard shadows[10][8][11][2], but it is still an open question as to when it will become feasible to ray trace soft shadows and other advanced effects in real time.
...
As the data in Table 2 shows, rendering with divergent secondary rays can increase bandwidth consumed between main memory and L2 by an order of magnitude or more. However, for scenes with many visible triangles, rendering with divergent secondary rays can increase bandwidth consumed by two orders of magnitude or more. In Figure 2 and Figure 3, we extrapolate these data to rendering at 60 fps. Bandwidth demand for scenes with few visible triangles is within current memory-to-core bandwidth rates, but bandwidth demand for scenes with many visible triangles exceeds current bandwidth rates by more than an order of magnitude.

Just in case:
"order of magnitude" => roughly 10 times
"two orders of magnitude" => roughly 100 times
My meaning of speed was clocks.. as in GHz.
When calculating light you fire of a number of "beams" (objects)
You have to set a number of intersections ofc, too much would probably be memory intensive, but if you fire alot of those beams with low intersection count, you would get a faster "idea" of the scene, but at lower resolution.
But when you're only needing path's for your current frustom at any given time, maybe shorter rays' the way to go? Especially considering data fetch speeds in next-gen with their SSD. The more data that solidifies within the 16ms frametime the more you can "fool" the player.
 
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They won't be a mid gen refresh
We shall see. Still too early to say either way. With that said, if people migrate over to the PC for performance reasons, and they're coming from Xbox, Microsoft won't care. They're still on Windows and probably Game Pass, so technically they're still in the ecosystem. Sony on the other hand, needs players to stay in their ecosystem, and if that means offering a PS5 Pro to keep them away from PC, so be it. Time will tell.
 

-Arcadia-

Banned
Any mid-gen refresh would have to work hard to draw in mainstream gamers with small visual updates, or that would have to be some level of ray-tracing. Dedicated gamers go ga-ga for making something look slightly better in the wider context of things. Most do not.

This gen's refresh had 4K and HDR, which was an enormous, appreciable step forward for most.
 

StormCell

Member
I feel like they need something new to slap on boxes and hype, and 8K is a total waste. That basically leaves RT as the obvious choice. I think they will gradually implement RT wherever they can best leverage it without tanking performance on the new consoles. In this case, a mid-gen refresh is totally going to make sense as they continue to increase use of RT. These consoles seem destined to be pushed to their limits within 3 years, and either they shorten the console life cycle or they implement half step boxes that will improve performance of late gen games.

So I wouldn't say it's just for RT, as there are going to be other improvements like hard drive read speeds and such that will only go further to improve performance.
 
ok give it to me in child language. What is Ray tracing? Something with shadows? Lol sorry.

It's a method used to path light sources and reflections accurately.

You have "rays" or lines emanating from a light source (or from the camera in the case of games, rendering only what is needed for the player's point of view). those rays can accurately be mapped to provide 100% accurate lighting, shadows, shadow diffusion, bounce lighting and reflections.

The more rays you use the more accurate the final image is, but more rays require more power to calculate. Dedicated hardware makes this process faster and also allows the use of more rays for more accuracy and fidelity.

 
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RaySoft

Member
ok give it to me in child language. What is Ray tracing? Something with shadows? Lol sorry.
RT is more like how light behaves in RL. It's really complicated to calculate, when you consider that every beam of light might bounce of a surface and then scatter and then bounce off tens, if not hundreds more.
Easiest way to describe RT is that all animation films been using it for years. But they can use it since they don't have a frame budget they need to heed to.
RayTracing will probably be the next-gen "feature" that the next-gen consoles "can't deliver". (at least not on pair with the new nVidia cards that are in the pipeline.)
 
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If AMD Ray Tracing are tied to CU count than i think so especially with PS5 only having 36 CU and XSX having 52 PS5 need to mid gen refresh more.
 
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It's a method used to path light sources and reflections accurately.

You have "rays" or lines emanating from a light source. those rays can accurately be mapped to provice 100% accurate lighting, shadows, shadow diffusion, bounce lighting and reflections.

The more rays you use the more accurate the final image is, but more rays require more power to calculate.


RT is more like how light behaves in RL. It's really complicated to calculate, when you consider that every beam of light might bounce of a surface and then scatter and then bounce off tens, if not hundreds more.
Easiest way to describe RT is that all animation films been using it for years. But they can use it since they don't have a frame budget they need to heed to.
RayTracing will probably be the next-gen "feature" that the next-gen consoles "can't deliver". (at least not on pair with the new nVidia cards that are in the pipeline.)

Thanks guys or gals. Pretty much what I thought but that video helped.

Sounds like something that will really add to the photo realism but is also very intensive to implement correctly. Hopefully we get 4k 60 fps before this. I really want 4k 60fps out of PS5, 60 FPS should be a god damn standered already.
 

xiseerht

Member
I fully believe we will get an Xbox Series X+ and a PS5+ sometime in 2023 and the Xbox Series Y / PS6 ins 2026
 

TGO

Hype Train conductor. Works harder than it steams.
Not saying they didn't sell well, But I honestly don't think the Pro and One X sold enough to convince MS and Sony to do it again
 

bender

What time is it?
Not saying they didn't sell well, But I honestly don't think the Pro and One X sold enough to convince MS and Sony to do it again

And even if we do, I don't think ray tracing will be the reason. The tech is still too early and will still be too expensive for full implementation on console priced hardware. I also don't really see it as something to motivate your average consumer to upgrade.
 

RaySoft

Member
Thanks guys or gals. Pretty much what I thought but that video helped.

Sounds like something that will really add to the photo realism but is also very intensive to implement correctly. Hopefully we get 4k 60 fps before this. I really want 4k 60fps out of PS5, 60 FPS should be a god damn standered already.
Well.. I would rahter have 1080p with full path tracing rather than 4K with only raytraced reflections. Light really makes a scene.
 
Well.. I would rahter have 1080p with full path tracing rather than 4K with only raytraced reflections. Light really makes a scene.

Lol. Would that be a feasible trade off? I guess I would have to see both in person to know for sure. 4k is just so nice
 

RaySoft

Member
Lol. Would that be a feasible trade off? I guess I would have to see both in person to know for sure. 4k is just so nice
Path tracing is rather heavy on the calculations, but looks splendid. The point is that we have been using fake or pre-baked calculations until now. Once you'we "seen the light" you never come back.
The point is that RT, being tooted by MS, but rather downplayed by Sony, wont be up to par in RT performance with the new nVidia cards (or maybe even their last gen RTX2080)
 
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