Support NeoGAF

[64bitmodels]

Pretty much what it says on the tin. Steam Deck, asahi Linux and advancements in Mac & Linux gaming may take Windows off its 25+ year gaming throne. I personally think that Mac will take over thanks to the new M1 chips being great while Linux gets a boost decent enough to be considered more by big publishers... But I definitely don't think it will become dominant like my penguin fantasies want it to be

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

2028 will be The Year of Linux on the Desktop. Gamers en masse will finally become fed up with proprietary closed source software. Landfills will pile up with beige boxes signaling the end of the Wintel hegemony. Bill Gates will be publicly flogged, and all his wealth will be stripped and donated to the Free Software Foundation.


Real answer: I think Mac and Linux will both gain some market share but Windows will still dominate.

 

[feynoob]

Windows will control the majority of market by 90/10.

 

[Aenima]

Same.

 

[Ozriel]

Pretty much what it says on the tin. Steam Deck, asahi Linux and advancements in Mac & Linux gaming may take Windows off its 25+ year gaming throne. I personally think that Mac will take over thanks to the new M1 chips being great while Linux gets a boost decent enough to be considered more by big publishers... But I definitely don't think it will become dominant like my penguin fantasies want it to be

People hyped up Proton as heralding a new wave of Linux gaming. Hasn’t done much…and now the big wave of handheld gaming PCs look to be running Windows.

Mac? not a chance. The M series chips are great for productivity but gaming on Mac is still a far cry.

Marketshare won’t have dramatically flipped by then.

 

[LoveCake]

Windows if the acti/blizz deal goes through.

 

[64bitmodels]

the big wave of handheld gaming PCs look to be running Windows.

steam deck seems to be outlasting and outselling all of them though

 

[Valkyria]

Interesting question. It depends on valve and actually more on Microsoft.
If Microsoft makes a move to take control of gaming in PC Valve will push harder Steam OS, that right now it’s a real alternative, so imaging in 10 more years of development.
If MS continues with the status quo then probably valve will keep on with Deck but they will not go all in.

 

[RoboFu]

Idk this a tough one. Many factors involved. Do desktops die out? Do laptops die out in favor of tablets?

Ones thing is for sure. computer chips are getting smaller and more powerful while at the same time everything is becoming a computer.

 

[64bitmodels]

Real answer: I think Mac and Linux will both gain some market share but Windows will still dominate.

added your choice

 

[SmokedMeat]

Linux gains a little.

That’s it.

 

[Ozriel]

steam deck seems to be outlasting and outselling all of them though

The ‘big wave’ being referred to aren’t on the market yet.

It’s starting out with the ROG Ally, but I’ll eat my hat if the likes of Razer aren’t prepping theirs

And now the $699 price point has been established, I think most new entrants will fall around that level.

 

[R6Rider]

Largely the same.

 

[Ozriel]

If Microsoft makes a move to take control of gaming in PC.

There’s no possibility of this. Valve reigns supreme in PC gaming and that’s not going to change

Valve will push harder Steam OS, that right now it’s a real alternative, so imaging in 10 more years of development.

Won’t really make a big difference. Most people won’t leave Windows for Linux in the consumer space, and Valve dares not screw Steam on Windows.

 

[Spyxos]

Pretty much what it says on the tin. Steam Deck, asahi Linux and advancements in Mac & Linux gaming may take Windows off its 25+ year gaming throne. I personally think that Mac will take over thanks to the new M1 chips being great while Linux gets a boost decent enough to be considered more by big publishers... But I definitely don't think it will become dominant like my penguin fantasies want it to be

M1 had great marketing, but the hype died down quite a bit with M2 at the latest. As long as Apple does their own thing and doesn't support common formats for PC games, they will remain irrelevant.

 

[Xyphie]

It's Windows all the way.

macOS - in decline. Major developers that used to do native versions no longer are (e.g. Blizzard). On the horizon you have every game with a 64-bit x86 binary becoming unplayable when Apple eventually discontinues Rosetta 2 just like they did with 32-bit/PPC binaries, so the entire 2006-2020 catalogue will be lost.
Linux - a few million Steam Decks won't meaningfully nudge Linux marketshare and gamers won't install Linux on more general purpose PCs.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Linux dominates and turns the world into a Unix based commune

 

[64bitmodels]

It's Windows all the way.

macOS - in decline. Major developers that used to do native versions no longer are (e.g. Blizzard). On the horizon you have every game with a 64-bit x86 binary becoming unplayable when Apple eventually discontinues Rosetta 2 just like they did with 32-bit/PPC binaries, so the entire 2006-2020 catalogue will be lost.
Linux - a few million Steam Decks won't meaningfully nudge Linux marketshare and gamers won't install Linux on more general purpose PCs.

Windows 11 adoption hasn't been very fast though, and Windows 12 looks to be more of the same UI wise which a lot of people despise

 

[Black_Stride]

Linux and OSX gain a bit.
Windows dominates easy work.

Current break down is
Windows 96%
OSX 2.3%
Linux 1.3%

Linux goes up to 2.5%
OSX goes up to 2.5%
Windows goes "down" to 95%.


People already on Windows arent moving to OSX or Linux for gaming.
SteamOS is probably gonna be the biggest push for Linux...im assuming Valve is gonna start working more closely with vendors to have customized SteamOS on their devices.
Games supporting Apple Silicon pushes it up a bit.
Everyone else sticks to Windows.

Just to grasp how deep the chokehold Windows has on gaming.
Windows has a bigger advantage than Nvidia has in the GPU space.
People "gaming" on Dual Core systems as a percentage is higher than the OSX and Linux combined.
As a percentage there are more people with DirectX 8 GPUs than OSX and Linux....my G, DirectX 8 released in 2001.
People "gaming" with 1GB or less of VRAM as a percentage is.....damn, this is just sad let me stop.


In 10 years.....itll be effectively the same shit.

 

[64bitmodels]

Linux goes up to 2.5%
OSX goes up to 2.5%
Windows goes "down" to 95%.

a but too small of an impact for a decade dont you think

just a quick reminder that most PC gamers are tech savvy enough to build their PCs, so installing Windows, Linux or a Hackintosh is a choice that they make. The pendulum could easily swing if Microsoft fucks up hard enough

 

[kvltus lvlzvs]

I voted with my heart, Linux takes over.

 

[Syphon Filter]

I think linux will improve it's market share in gaming due to steam deck helping out and more general interest in the OS these days.

 

[Black_Stride]

a but too small of an impact for a decade dont you think

just a quick reminder that most PC gamers are tech savvy enough to build their PCs, so installing Windows, Linux or a Hackintosh is a choice that they make. The pendulum could easily swing if Microsoft fucks up hard enough

Most PC gamers are NOT tech savvy.
They buy a machine, install Steam and game....every few years they maybe maybe maybe buy a new GPU cuz thats easy enough to install.....otherwise they literally buy another prebuilt/parts picker build.

Which is the reason the 3050 is even on the Steam Survey at all, let alone being a top 10 GPU above the 2060S thats much more powerful.
Most people dont know shit!

The mystique of Linux is a huge barrier already, I know many people who think Linux is like staring at the Matrix code.
The only way Linux gains enough to make a difference(a very small difference) is from SteamOS actually gaining traction.

Hackintosh is going to be phased out sooner rather than later because Apple is moving to ARM64 based Apple Silicon.
And the number of people even using Hackintosh for gaming is borderline irrelevant in an already borderline irrelevant 2%.



In college I worked at a PC builders and I still do PC building on the side for friends and friends of friends (Its fun and pays for my beer).
No one who didnt need Linux for mission critical work or just needed a media server has ever asked for Linux.
And the gamers of those customer dont even consider Linux as an option for their gaming machines.

 

[Drell]

MS' Monopoly sucks ass but it won't move. It's like this since the 90s, it won't change,

 

[jshackles]

Linux gains, but only because of SteamOS being available. (seems inevitable at this point) The Chinese handheld market makes their race to the bottom to replicate the Steam Deck's success. Over the course of the next 10 years, advances in technology (and the SteamOS software itself) will make for a pretty compelling hardware stack that, given the current trends, should be super cheap.

 

[Topher]

Linux gains, but only because of SteamOS being available. (seems inevitable at this point) The Chinese handheld market makes their race to the bottom to replicate the Steam Deck's success. Over the course of the next 10 years, advances in technology (and the SteamOS software itself) will make for a pretty compelling hardware stack that, given the current trends, should be super cheap.

I agree. I can see Linux gaming becoming bigger in the coming years. Windows is going to be the market leader either way, but it will be more competitive, especially if Valve releases Steam OS publicly for other device makers to utilize freely in their products. Something I think Valve needs to do sooner rather than later.

 

[ReBurn]

Linux won't see gains due to Steam Deck. The bulk of games will still be built for and released for Windows and Steam Deck will continue to emulate them via Proton. Devs aren't going to switch to native Linux because of Steam Deck. Unreal Engine will be the bigger influencer. So I think Windows may lose some market share, but unless Microsoft goes out of business Linux isn't going to capture the desktop gaming market.

 

[a multicultural team of v]

Apple is going to release their own silicon that blows the pants off Nvidia and AMD and we are going to be in for some fun times in PC land.

 

[Shh]

People hyped up Proton as heralding a new wave of Linux gaming. Hasn’t done much…and now the big wave of handheld gaming PCs look to be running Windows.

Mac? not a chance. The M series chips are great for productivity but gaming on Mac is still a far cry.

Marketshare won’t have dramatically flipped by then.

The M series chips are great for gaming. But that doesn't mean anyone is going to make games for Mac. That ship has sailed. Windows is still going to dominate gaming for for the foreseeable future.

 

[Husky]

A pirate OS package called Windows 7 Part II will be covertly released on the Internet Archive, incorporating the advancements of newer Windows iterations, while returning to the glorious look and feel of Windows 7 and adding additional privacy and security measures. It will attract a small and avid fanbase, before several YouTubers start making showcase videos, and it rapidly becomes the world's leading OS. Microsoft falls into ruin as they fail to erase the OS' presence from the web, and as each of their best new features are automatically patched into what fans start to affectionately call Win7-2.

 

[rodrigolfp]

Windows still leader, Linux gain, mac dies.

 

[Celcius]

windows isn't going anywhere

 

[PendekarRajawali]

 

[draliko]

a but too small of an impact for a decade dont you think

just a quick reminder that most PC gamers are tech savvy enough to build their PCs, so installing Windows, Linux or a Hackintosh is a choice that they make. The pendulum could easily swing if Microsoft fucks up hard enough

No they're not, majority plays on a laptop or prebuild in mid setting at 1080p... We here are an exception and the smallest market crowd, the enthusiast

 

[existensmaximum]

just a quick reminder that most PC gamers are tech savvy enough to build their PCs, so installing Windows, Linux or a Hackintosh is a choice that they make. The pendulum could easily swing if Microsoft fucks up hard enough

What have you that idea? Most gamers are not that tech savvy or interested, and they certainly would not bother with a hackintosh or Linux. I know it's easy, but I think you're in a bubble here.

 

[ZehDon]

Microsoft are too heavily invested in Windows from every conceivable angle to give up their dominant position to companies investing a pittance in comparison. The entrenchment on Windows is so deep it'll require an Operation Overlord to supplant. MacOS is for contrarians, Linux is for the greybeards, Windows is for everyone else. I doubt it'll change in my lifetime.

 

[Chastten]

Back when I was in my IT-studies 20something years ago, I had this one classmate who kept telling the rest of us that Linux was going to take over Windows as the dominant OS, once <insert random improvement that Windows didn't have>. Obviously that never happened, and I honestly don't think it ever will. Linux will remain a 1% niche for people who really like tinkering.

Mac might gain a few % as the new chips seem to be really good, but most of the Mac crowd aren't really into gaming, so I can't see them really going anywhere with that.

Windows will remain the market leader by a wide margin, is my guess at least.

 

[Paasei]

It will stay the same. Zero indication that it will change. Too many people on this forum alone already find it rocket science to tweak the options menu in games, let alone play games on an OS that doesn’t always natively support said game.

 

[Soodanim]

The poll needed a "Linux gains a little thanks to Steam Deck" option, because that's the only realistic outcome.

Linux is never going to gain any major ground, not even OSX managed that with all of Apple's marketing. No PC is going to be sold with Linux installed, OEMs know that's a nightmare they don't want to face. Day 1 they would have angry customers shouting for Windows to be put on their machines.

Steam Deck, thanks to the underlying software that's been years in the making, is the only reason people will be using Linux without being enthusiasts: they don't need to worry about the Linux part of it. That's only really Linux by way of technicality, not because Steam Deck users believe in Linux as a platform.

 

[kurisu_1974]

2024 will be the year of the linux desktop

 

[lyan]

Proton leading to Linux being second class citizen forever. Native build eventually vanishes entirely then Microsoft gains even higher market share by introducing changes that are hard to accomplish through compatibility layer.

 

[Alesimage]

Windows will continue to dominate like they always have. Along with office and azure. Duhh

 

[Crayon]

The poll needed a "Linux gains a little thanks to Steam Deck" option, because that's the only realistic outcome.

Linux is never going to gain any major ground, not even OSX managed that with all of Apple's marketing. No PC is going to be sold with Linux installed, OEMs know that's a nightmare they don't want to face. Day 1 they would have angry customers shouting for Windows to be put on their machines.

Steam Deck, thanks to the underlying software that's been years in the making, is the only reason people will be using Linux without being enthusiasts: they don't need to worry about the Linux part of it. That's only really Linux by way of technicality, not because Steam Deck users believe in Linux as a platform.

Linux by way of technicality? No it's Linux tested and pre installed on retail hardware. That makes all the difference.

 

[THE DUCK]

If asus and or ms develop enough slick front ends, and systems like asus ally get cheaper quickly, windows. Conversely, value coukd still make some noise if they could ever get steam deck more refined and down to $299.

 

[tusharngf]

MAC gaming is dead... apple is not that ambitious compared to microsoft when it comes to gaming on desktop OS.

 

[Black_Stride]

I agree. I can see Linux gaming becoming bigger in the coming years. Windows is going to be the market leader either way, but it will be more competitive, especially if Valve releases Steam OS publicly for other device makers to utilize freely in their products. Something I think Valve needs to do sooner rather than later.

SteamOS

store.steampowered.com

Its already publicly released.
I dont know who their OEM partners are right now, they had atleast 15 partners last I checked, but im sure manufacturers like AyaNeo could easily contact Valve to redist Steam (thats the part of the licensing agreement).

So the only thing really stopping SteamOS on smaller devices and SteamBoxes is will of manufacturers and consumers.
SteamBoxes failed quite badly, but maybe handhelds make a bigger dent.

Apple is going to release their own silicon that blows the pants off Nvidia and AMD and we are going to be in for some fun times in PC land.

Apple Silicon is already plenty powerful and their MetalFX is actually pretty damn good.
The issue is devs actually porting games to Apple Silicon and Apple users actually bothering to buy those games.
After Apple Silicon dropped the percentage gained for OSX gamers was less than 1%.

Apple is unlikely to gain much and devs are highly unlikely to bother porting to ARM64 based machines.....maybe Switch and Super Switch ports?

 

[I Love Rock 'n' Roll]

People hyped up Proton as heralding a new wave of Linux gaming. Hasn’t done much…and now the big wave of handheld gaming PCs look to be running Windows.

Mac? not a chance. The M series chips are great for productivity but gaming on Mac is still a far cry.

Marketshare won’t have dramatically flipped by then.

Wrong and fake.

There is Retroarch on M. Mac. Same with RPCS3, Dolphin, PCSX2, Vita3K and there are running great, even on a base M2 Macbook. There are lots of playable games on RyujinX.

We haves seen during the very last year some descent efforts to make the most known emulator ported on Mac silicon with great results. Things are moving very quickly, but what the fuck is Valve doing, considering M series chip are even now a reality with iPad Air and Pro?

 

[HerjansEagleFeeder]

Linux will probably gain 0.005% market share thanks to Steam Deck.

 

[Topher]

SteamOS

store.steampowered.com

Its already publicly released.
I dont know who their OEM partners are right now, they had atleast 15 partners last I checked, but im sure manufacturers like AyaNeo could easily contact Valve to redist Steam (thats the part of the licensing agreement).

So the only thing really stopping SteamOS on smaller devices and SteamBoxes is will of manufacturers and consumers.
SteamBoxes failed quite badly, but maybe handhelds make a bigger dent.

That's actually the old Steam OS based on Debian. Not the newer one that was created for Steam Deck, based on Arch Linux.

 

[PendekarRajawali]

2024 will be the year of the linux desktop

You sound like phil spencer of linux.