Support NeoGAF

[prinz_valium]

What is this meant to show?

That The Last of Us II has a similar drop to Uncharted 4 and not God of War or Spiderman in terms of legs.
80% for The last of Us 2 and 78% for Uncharted 4

So more upfront anticipation and hype, but therefor less legs.

 

[xrnzaaas]

The second week drop doesn't really mean anything in terms of how the game will continue to sell, but I get it, it's a good number to make a flashy article or youtube video about.

 

[prinz_valium]

The second week drop doesn't really mean anything in terms of how the game will continue to sell, but I get it, it's a good number to make a flashy article or youtube video about.

It definitely will affect first month NPD sales and if the came will beat Spiderman or not.
A lot of moms bought Spiderman for their kids the following weeks. Not so much for this game obviously.

Also 2 weeks of tracking vs 5 weeks of tracking.

 

[BlitzerRadic]

Ok lets bet.
I say by october for sure.

Flash sale for 30 and under will be around september.

I take a 2 weeks ban if i am wrong.
You take a 2 weeks ban if i am right

Mark this.

Every Sony game goes on sale a few months or so after launch so that's not saying anying. You said TLOU2 will be on PS Now soon. If very soon means October, I'll bet you a permanent ban it won't be.

 

[Jtibh]

I do

Every Sony game goes on sale a few months or so after launch so that's not saying anying. You said TLOU2 will be on PS Now soon. If very soon means October, I'll bet you a permanent ban it won't be.

I dont take permaban .
Lets do 4 weeks.
Deal?

 

[yurinka]

Every Sony game goes on sale a few months or so after launch so that's not saying anying. You said TLOU2 will be on PS Now soon. If very soon means October, I'll bet you a permanent ban it won't be.

TLOU2 won't be on PS Now or Plus during its first year.

First because it will have great launch window sales, its first two or three months. Then because a couple of months or so after it will get a sales peak due to holydays (we may see here a time limited discounted price cut during Black Friday) and PS5 launch window, let's say its first 3 months more. Then in April or May it may get a price drop so it will get another sales peak.

So maybe a year after its release they may consider if or when they put it on Plus or Now, and very likely they will decide to wait until the release of its DLC, very likely the multiplayer mode that would be released a free PS5 enhacement/Pro-like free DLC.

This game is going to reach the 20 million units sold at the end of its lifetime, becoming the best selling PlayStation exclusive ever.

 

[BlitzerRadic]

I do

I dont take permaban .
Lets do 4 weeks.
Deal?

Lol why? Not confident in your prediction? I'm 100% confident in mine. My account is not some throwaway account either. Since you are not confident, let's do 1 year.

 

[Jtibh]

Lol why? Not confident in your prediction? I'm 100% confident in mine. My account is not some throwaway account either. Since you are not confident, let's do 1 year.

Deal

 

[BlitzerRadic]

Deal

OK, so just to be clear, the bet we are making is that TLOU2 will be available in PSNOW some time October, 2020. If it is not, then you will ban yourself from NeoGAF starting November 1, 2020 for a period of 1 year. If TLOU2 is available in PSNOW in October 2020, I will ban myself from NeoGAF starting November 1, 2020 for a period of 1 year.

 

[10000]

Lol why? Not confident in your prediction? I'm 100% confident in mine. My account is not some throwaway account either. Since you are not confident, let's do 1 year.

Deal

play stupid games win stupid prizes

 

[prinz_valium]

On Ps Now?

You guys are crazy. Even if I would be super bearish on the leg of the game, I would not bet it comes to PS Now anytime soon.
$30 deals? Sure.

 

[Shin]

idiot

Still anal one day later I see, quite invested aren't we? Should I provide Vaseline for your butthurt ass or save it for the next beating?
The only one that looks and is an idiot here is the one that can't let go nor can read or they would have taken notice of something in the post they are all worked up about.

I'm happy people like you exists, it's like food to me. Incidentally it's interesting that you ignored the post where I said great numbers, ha-ha.gif

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

That The Last of Us II has a similar drop to Uncharted 4 and not God of War or Spiderman in terms of legs.
80% for The last of Us 2 and 78% for Uncharted 4

So more upfront anticipation and hype, but therefor less legs.

Are these figures here physical only? Because it's a terrible point if they are, during a lockdown still in UK and with higher digital split for this game than previous years, sspecially when GoW was released. Under these circumstances, it's drop is actually quite a feat.

 

[Dibils2k]

the impact of the hate on sales, if any, will be long term so i dont think this proves anything yet

 

[Jtibh]

OK, so just to be clear, the bet we are making is that TLOU2 will be available in PSNOW some time October, 2020. If it is not, then you will ban yourself from NeoGAF starting November 1, 2020 for a period of 1 year. If TLOU2 is available in PSNOW in October 2020, I will ban myself from NeoGAF starting November 1, 2020 for a period of 1 year.

That is correct.

 

[Jtibh]

OK, so just to be clear, the bet we are making is that TLOU2 will be available in PSNOW some time October, 2020. If it is not, then you will ban yourself from NeoGAF starting November 1, 2020 for a period of 1 year. If TLOU2 is available in PSNOW in October 2020, I will ban myself from NeoGAF starting November 1, 2020 for a period of 1 year.

So deal?
Date is july 1st.
Hereby we both agree to these terms.

Taking screenshot of this and we can also set it up in the ban thread so comes november 1st one of us will give up their account for a year.

 

[Jtibh]

TLOU2 won't be on PS Now or Plus during its first year.

First because it will have great launch window sales, its first two or three months. Then because a couple of months or so after it will get a sales peak due to holydays and PS5 launch window, let's say its first 3 months more. Then in April or May it may get a price drop so it will get another sales peak.

So maybe a year after its release they may consider if or when they put it on Plus or Now, and very likely they will decide to wait until the release of it DLC, very likely the multiplayer mode that would be released a free PS5 enhacement/Pro-like free DLC.

This game is going to reach the 20 million units sold at the end of its lifetime, becoming the best selling PlayStation exclusive ever.

This is the end of the ps4 cycle.

Sony from here on has to work on bring new and have old customers stick with playstation and migrate to ps5 from the beginning.

And one way to do it is to put this game on psnow

 

[Explosive Zombie]

It COULD come to PSnow with the launch of PS5 as a way to show they're becoming more aggressive with PSNow fighting Gamepass, it wouldn't lose them much since they could have the entire launch line-up for PS5 NOT on PSNow. I would say it's not the most out there prediction I just think basing it on an 80% drop makes little sense as many big games (Uncharted 4) experience such a drop.

 

[Roman Empire]

I feel relieved for buying the physical media for the game. Played it in the first 3 days and sold it. If I could, I'd have rented this. 6/10, it 's a technical marvel but it wasn't what I expected of 7 years of production. The only new character I really liked was Jesse but it was too brief. At least I got some money back and already have Ghost of Tsushima on the wait. I'm really curious about how well can Sucker Punch portray a Japanese setting, it's a rare sight to see an American studio trying to depict a Japanese feeling game, even though they are using the common American production approach (more movie like).

For now, I want to see what is next to Naughty Dog. Maybe something futuristic and less grounded? At least it could be a new IP.

 

[-MD-]

Still anal one day later I see, quite invested aren't we? Should I provide Vaseline for your butthurt ass or save it for the next beating?
The only one that looks and is an idiot here is the one that can't let go nor can read or they would have taken notice of something in the post they are all worked up about.

I'm happy people like you exists, it's like food to me. Incidentally it's interesting that you ignored the post where I said great numbers, ha-ha.gif

Embarrassing.

 

[REE Machine]

It wont be on psnow in oct, hell theyll have an upgraded version on back compat for ps5 that if people didnt buy it yet will aink their teeth into it. If it comes to psnow I would say for atleast a year or two. They have to much money to make because usually sony gamers actually buy their exclusives and dont use subscription services

 

[BlitzerRadic]

So deal?
Date is july 1st.
Hereby we both agree to these terms.

Taking screenshot of this and we can also set it up in the ban thread so comes november 1st one of us will give up their account for a year.

Yes, we have a deal.

 

[yurinka]

This is the end of the ps4 cycle.

Sony from here on has to work on bring new and have old customers stick with playstation and migrate to ps5 from the beginning.

And one way to do it is to put this game on psnow

If as they did with their previous devices you share your same account with the trophies, friend list and games, having BC (as happened from PSP>Vita, but now disc games would work too) it will be a super easy transition for them. Even if they don't release PS5 exclusive (or next gen only) big sellers, the console will be basically sold out anywhere during the first months due to the current huge hype and early adopters who want next gen.

Regarding the end of PS4, all the previous PlayStation have been on sale and getting new games for two or three years after the release of its successor. Cross gen games, sports games, and now indies and the subscription services like Plus or Now. During that period, it typically gets a price cut that makes it approchable by many families or countries where a new console is too expensive. PS4 will be still alive on 2022/2023.

They won't put a game on PS Now a few months after its release when they know it will very likely sell like over 15-20 million copies. It would be retarded to put it on PS Now before it sold the huge majority of its projected copies. In MS side make more sense -but still dumb- because almost all their AA/AAA games are more in the 3-5 milllon units sold range (or lower) and their budget in most cases is way lower than the one TLOU2 had (I completed it and it must have been super expensive).

In MS may make more sense because they may go kamikaze puting their games day one at least during some years to see if it helps them to achieve a great revenue (or at least userbase/market share) from Gamepass in the long term, so to see if even if they are way behind in consoles and games sold, at least they can dominate that subscription market in the long run. But Sony doesn't need that, because their game subscription services (Plus+Now) have way more subscribers and revenue than the ones from MS (Gold+Gamepass), and on top of that their big first/second party games are selling better in PS4 than ever, and overall (including 3rd party multi games, all games) there are more games being sold in PS4 than ever before (as I remember is more or less on track following aligned sales to PS2 and already surpassed all the other consoles), which means Sony is getting a lot of money from games being sold for their console, even if they are 3rd party, so they don't want to disturb these sales.

 

[DntMesArnd]

If you don't own stock in either company, why would anyone care who "wins"?

 

[Jtibh]

If as they did with their previous devices you share your same account with the trophies, friend list and games, having BC (as happened from PSP>Vita, but now disc games would work too) it will be a super easy transition for them. Even if they don't release PS5 exclusive (or next gen only) big sellers, the console will be basically sold out anywhere during the first months due to the current huge hype and early adopters who want next gen.

Regarding the end of PS4, all the previous PlayStation have been on sale and getting new games for two or three years after the release of its successor. Cross gen games, sports games, and now indies and the subscription services like Plus or Now. During that period, it typically gets a price cut that makes it approchable by many families or countries where a new console is too expensive. PS4 will be still alive on 2022/2023.

They won't put a game on PS Now a few months after its release when they know it will very likely sell like over 15-20 million copies. It would be retarded to put it on PS Now before it sold the huge majority of its projected copies. In MS side make more sense -but still dumb- because almost all their AA/AAA games are more in the 3-5 milllon units sold range (or lower) and their budget in most cases is way lower than the one TLOU2 had (I completed it and it must have been super expensive).

In MS may make more sense because they may go kamikaze puting their games day one at least during some years to see if it helps them to achieve a great revenue (or at least userbase/market share) from Gamepass in the long term, so to see if even if they are way behind in consoles and games sold, at least they can dominate that subscription market in the long run. But Sony doesn't need that, because their game subscription services (Plus+Now) have way more subscribers and revenue than the ones from MS (Gold+Gamepass), and on top of that their big first/second party games are selling better in PS4 than ever, and overall (including 3rd party multi games, all games) there are more games being sold in PS4 than ever before (as I remember is more or less on track following aligned sales to PS2 and already surpassed all the other consoles), which means Sony is getting a lot of money from games being sold for their console, even if they are 3rd party, so they don't want to disturb these sales.

Well we will see. A bet is a bet.

Lets see whats new for psnow in july. If they put out newer games then my chances are much higher

 

[Zato]

Great game, who cares who is fucking whom in it.

Gameplay is great, graphics and atmosphere also.

Taking my time and enjoying it loads.

 

[BlitzerRadic]

Well we will see. A bet is a bet.

Lets see whats new for psnow in july. If they put out newer games then my chances are much higher

Spiderman is leaving PS Now this month. The cadence for Sony 1p on PS Now is 3-4 months? AFAIK Detroit, GTS, Death Stranding and Days Gone have not been on PS Now yet. Those games have a higher probability of appearing on the service before TLOU2.

 

[yurinka]

Well we will see. A bet is a bet.

Lets see whats new for psnow in july. If they put out newer games then my chances are much higher

Until now they announced that starting July a new indie will join PS Now. In July will be Hello Neighbor (a 2017 game).

We'll see the lineup July 7, but as reference in June we saw Metro Exodus, Dishonored 2 or NASCAR Heat 4.

 

[Jbomb19]

Bye bye lost all of us 2



Expect flash sale at 20 bucks kicking in very soon

I don’t think you or that person in the video understand how sales work

 

[Whitecrow]

I don’t think you or that person in the video understand how sales work

I know why you say that, but in this case theres more context to it.

Can you name another game that made physical stores reject refunds?

 

[DForce]

I know why you say that, but in this case theres more context to it.

Can you name another game that made physical stores reject refunds?

What matters is if how the game will sell after the first few weeks.

Neil has stated before that people who played the first game might not like the second game. This happening is predictable and this could be a small crowd of people compared to the vast majority.

 

[Jtibh]

I

Until now they announced that starting July a new indie will join PS Now. In July will be Hello Neighbor (a 2017 game).

We'll see the lineup July 7, but as reference in June we saw Metro Exodus, Dishonored 2 or NASCAR Heat 4.

I have psnow. I am aware of the titles.

 

[Explosive Zombie]

I know why you say that, but in this case theres more context to it.

Can you name another game that made physical stores reject refunds?

I can't name another physical game you can get refunded if it's been opened.

 

[Whitecrow]

I can't name another physical game you can get refunded if it's been opened.

Sorry. Return, not refund.
So answering my question:
no one.

What matters is if how the game will sell after the first few weeks.

Neil has stated before that people who played the first game might not like the second game. This happening is predictable and this could be a small crowd of people compared to the vast majority.

Man, Druckmann and ND altered the trailer, replacing the Joel from the flashbacks for the old Joel. They used false advertising on purpose.
Then massive returns happened so stores blocked them.

You really think the initial sales are anything to go by here?

 

[Explosive Zombie]

Sorry. Return, not refund.
So answering my question:
no one.



Man, Druckmann and ND altered the trailer, replacing the Joel from the flashbacks from the old Joel. They used false advertising on purpose.
Then massive returns happened so stores blocked them.

You really think the initial sales are anything to go by here?

Are you talking about the Australian store that stopped taking returns over Coronavirus?

 

[Geki-D]

Sorry. Return, not refund.
So answering my question:
no one.

So you're saying that if I took my copy to a store to trade in they would refuse it?

 

[DForce]

Sorry. Return, not refund.
So answering my question:
no one.



Man, Druckmann and ND altered the trailer, replacing the Joel from the flashbacks for the old Joel. They used false advertising on purpose.
Then massive returns happened so stores blocked them.

You really think the initial sales are anything to go by here?

Massive? The same amount of people who said there were massive canceled pre-orders after the plot leaked?

 

[ZywyPL]

the impact of the hate on sales, if any, will be long term so i dont think this proves anything yet

We saw that with Resistance series right? Where after absolutely great R:FoM, Insomniac went for the CoD crowd and stripped out the game from what made it so unique, turned it into yet another two-weapon shooter with regenerating HP and so on, but the game sold really well, because after R:FoM people wanted more Resistance, and no one knew what the second one was until actually buying and playing it. And at the time there were as well people arguing and defending it, that that's the step into right direction etc., but then Res3 game out, which is easily the pinnacle of the series, one of the best, if not THE best shooters available on PS3, but it didn't matter anymore, because not many people gave it a second chance after the disappointment Res2 gave them, there were so few people playing it that the game (MP) died after a month or two. And I fell like I'm having a deja vu now with TLoU2, literally the same situation, where the game sold well because people were so eager for more TLoU, but once the game finally arrived and people got their hands on it, there's one side who dislikes what the game has turned into, and the other desperately defending it, and like you said, only the long-term outcome can paint the greater picture. Assuming there will be Part 3 in the future of course.

 

[Tsukumo]

Shameful.

 

[sid2vicious]

So you're saying that if I took my copy to a store to trade in they would refuse it?

Even if you gave me the game for free I wouldn't take it. I know what people could do with their copies of TLOU2, they can join the ranks of E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

 

[down 2 orth]

Damn, it's not holding out so well compared to Spiderman and God of War. And faring even worse in Japan.

I guess it goes to show that spending massively on promotion can boost sales up front, but you can't keep those legs without proper word of mouth. It will be interesting to see how front-loaded this is.

 

[Jbomb19]

I know why you say that, but in this case theres more context to it.

Can you name another game that made physical stores reject refunds?

do you have a source for that accusations that stores are rejecting refunds for The Last of Us Part 2? you do know that stores haven't accepted opened video games for a refund in a long time, right? unless the disc is physically faulty and even then I think it's just an exchange situation. and that photo that circulated about not accepting returns was due to COVID concerns. C'mon, man. do better. you can't be this gullible.

i've never seen people expend so much energy toward a game they don't like.

 

[Explosive Zombie]

We saw that with Resistance series right? Where after absolutely great R:FoM, Insomniac went for the CoD crowd and stripped out the game from what made it so unique, turned it into yet another two-weapon shooter with regenerating HP and so on, but the game sold really well, because after R:FoM people wanted more Resistance, and no one knew what the second one was until actually buying and playing it. And at the time there were as well people arguing and defending it, that that's the step into right direction etc., but then Res3 game out, which is easily the pinnacle of the series, one of the best, if not THE best shooters available on PS3, but it didn't matter anymore, because not many people gave it a second chance after the disappointment Res2 gave them, there were so few people playing it that the game (MP) died after a month or two. And I fell like I'm having a deja vu now with TLoU2, literally the same situation, where the game sold well because people were so eager for more TLoU, but once the game finally arrived and people got their hands on it, there's one side who dislikes what the game has turned into, and the other desperately defending it, and like you said, only the long-term outcome can paint the greater picture. Assuming there will be Part 3 in the future of course.

I viewed the first Resistance as being more like CoD than the second. From a level-design/structural point of view the second entry is more akin' to a Half-Life game with more boss battles, though I can see your points about weapon limits and HP. Resistance 3 is definitely the best of the franchise, tho.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Sorry if this has a specific thread already, I couldn't find it: Here's the weekly Famitsu Sales. I'm a Nintenchad, I take enormous pleasure from seeing Clubhouse Games beating TLOU 2.

That being said, it's not a bad number for a western game at all. It's not a juggernaut number, but far from a tragey. The Quartering is a fucking idiot.

 

[Manstructiclops]

I wonder if he knows Uncharted 4 had an 78% drop in its second week and went on to sell 16 million units

Uncharted 4 was the ps4's first big exclusive game, wasn't it? (inb4 bloodborne)

They were also pracically giving the thing away in cereal boxes mid life cycle.

 

[nowhat]

Uncharted 4 was the ps4's first big exclusive game, wasn't it?

Knack baybeee!

But I should expect this to hit "PlayStation Classics"-line (so like 20€) within like a year or so. HZD and GoW both made their way there relatively quickly.

 

[prinz_valium]

Yikes!!!

LMAO
Nice selective quoting.



I explicitly said it could outsell Spiderman at launch, but not in total and not NPD first month.
But whatever fits your narrative.

And I stand by what I said. TLOU2 will not outsell Spiderman
Spiderman sold 13.2 million in 325 days

Just a necro bump, because I was right as always:

The Last of Us: Part II achieved the highest launch month dollar sales of any 2020 release to date. The Last of Us: Part II reached the 2nd highest launch month dollar sales for a Sony published game in history. Only Marvel's Spider-Man achieved a larger debut month.

 

[Yoboman]

Just a necro bump, because I was right as always:

Spiderman had 23 days in its launch month, TLOU2 had 11 days.

 

[Killer Sakoman]

Finished the game. Very good game, but I don't think I am going to play part 3.

This reminds me of RE5. It was ok, but they fucked it up too much that I didn't care for RE6 ( giraffe man blowjob). I didn't buy it and didn't even care to follow its news. I came back with the good RE7 and RE2 remake and I believe Village will be good even though I would prefer a RE2 remake like sequal.

 

[Klik]

I played and finished Last of Us 2,i think its a great game,staying high on my recommend list. Definitely deserves good sales