There are several games franchises that do over $500 million in full priced sales... but we can lower the number to $200 million that will basically put all franchises in the same situation as GTA.
Games that have big revenue in full priced sales will take time to enter in subscriptions services.
That is the reality of subscription.. except for first-party you will only see 3rd-party franchises when it gets old... they will be some few small to mid franchises exceptions per year but that is all.
You are over thinking this too much.
In order for a game to hit that, they need to be a massive franchise, sell in all 3 devices, and have a successful game.
Few games have that. Even the mighty skyrim barely managed to hit 3m in 2 days. That is on 3 system.
Games now days have a competition. Unless you are a first party game, good luck hitting 5m in your first month on all platform.
Resident evil 8 did 4m in 1 month. This is a long running franchise, on a 5 system. Pc, xseries , ps5, x1, ps4.
You also have to consider the risk if making these big hits.
God of war costed $200m for Sony to make. In 4 years, with discounts and being 10$, it sold estimate of 20m copies, since release. Since it's Sony game, they don't have to pay 30% cut. If the game had failed, Sony would have lost alot of money. Because they Paid $200m just to make the game. How many millions do you think sony would need to cover that loss? They would need to sell 3.5m copies to hit that $200m cost. If the game made 2m sold in 1 month, that would have been a huge loss for Sony. as 2m is $120m at a 60$ price cost. 20m for 4 years is $1.2b profit, if the game stayed at 60$. But it had 10$ as its lowest. If we do average, which is 30$ per copy, God of war would have made $600m at minimum in 4 years. Substract the cost of making, and you get $400m profit in 4 years. That is 20m copies. Who didnt flop, and its a 1st party game.
Now do that, to 3rd party games. If resident evil 8 gets sold on Playstation, they would have to pay 30% cut of the 2m potentially sold in that console. With the price tag of 60$ as a majority, the game would have made $120m/30%=120m-36m=$84m. same for other devices, which takes 30% cut, $84m. total is $168m. Now you takeout the game cost, and marketing, and what is left is the profit.
What would the R8 profit be, if it sold 1-2m on that month? Do you think they would have recouped their loss?
This is what 3rd party games would need to deal with. As games gets expensive, it would harder for them to make profit. They will also need to fight other game releases, especially big games. Outriders were lucky, it didnt get released between Battlefield, Halo and COD. That is why it sold well. The good window helped the game get more players.
You have gamepass at its infant. By now, it should be 20m+ users. Subs fees alone would be $200m. That is the cost of making god of war. With 30m, subs fees would $300m. This is just at average of 10$. Not counting 1st party dlc, and those who just want to buy the games that are on gamepass, or pay mtx, or small adds on, like dlc characters.
They can just get unlimited funding for their 1st party games. Get 3rd party games, who are afraid of losing their investments, like outriders.
This what happens when a game fails.
They lost millions of dollars. And most of them deserved it.
13. Marvel's AvengersYear released
: Crystal Dynamics
: Square Enix
: PS4, PS5, Xbox One, Stadia, Xbox SeriesX/S, Windows
: Approximately $67 million loss
If you have no exclusive deals, or timed exclusive, you will lose that much money on your product, if its not successful. Every year a game fails.
this is a 2018 game.
7. Overkill's The Walking DeadYear released
: Overkill Software
: Starbreeze Publishing
: Microsoft Windows
: At least 60 jobs and millions of dollars lost
I remember seeing ads for this game. That is how much it suffered, because it didnt sell well.
Not everyone is lucky as gtav, or have Sony/Xbox/Nintendo name. Studios who dont have financial backing would shoulder that much loss, if their game sold less.
This is why Subscription service is important. Making a deal with those companies, allows the company to have some of its cost shaved from them, and face less losses. If their game is truly sold bad.