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Steam Deck 2 is already being planned out by Valve, and it will be even more powerful

Hopefully better than Deck 1. I was reading the Steam Deck Reddit mega thread and it looks like they’re just now getting to orders made 1.5-4hrs after the preorders went live, depending on the model.

The fuck?!

I put my deposit down for the most expensive model about a month ago. Does this mean I won't get it for Q4 as Valve informed me?
 
But but chip shortages.

You can't keep designing new products until everyone can buy everything they want now

Judge Judy Reaction GIF
 

CrustyBritches

Gold Member
The fuck?!

I put my deposit down for the most expensive model about a month ago. Does this mean I won't get it for Q4 as Valve informed me?
That’s for US, I don’t know the state of UK/EU orders. I reserved a 64GB unit a month ago and it says “after Q3”, which could mean anything. I was reading an article from a month or 2 ago and Valve said manufacturing was picking up into the hundreds of thousands, so that could be a positive sign.
 
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That’s for US, I don’t know the state of UK/EU orders. I reserved a 64GB unit a month ago and it says “after Q3”, which could mean anything. I was reading an article from a month or 2 ago and Valve said manufacturing was picking up into the hundreds of thousands, so that could be a positive sign.

OK cheers. Panic kind of over now. Lol
 
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CrustyBritches

Gold Member
They should launch a new handheld for every new fab node that allows a significantly more powerful APU for the same power envelope.
The thing about the Deck's Van Gogh APU is that it's made on N7P which has been available since 2019. The Deck could have released in 2020 as there's nothing that couldn't have been available at that time.
Van Gogh was even originally planned for H2 2020 according to the first roadmap leak where it appeared. It was supposed to appear half a year before the Ryzen 5000 series on some mobile product from Microsoft.

With N5 being made widely available for AMD this year, they can indeed launch a N5 Van Gogh successor for next year already.
Deck was supposed to launch Q4 2021, so 3yrs would put Deck 2 in Q4 2024. I don’t think we’ll see a 2023 launch. Although I’d buy one if they did.
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Fundamentally options.

I would also replace customers with some customers in that comment.

I think there are a group of users who want a pc like model in terms of HW cycles (multi 'gen' software support) alongside the largely UX/UI model of consoles.

Again this is dependent on software support running across multiple generations.

So they want a PC with the downsides of the platform and none of the benefits (locked Store, little to no game modding, difficulty to add new peripherals controls options [no exclusive software], etc…)?

I am sorry, but the “options” feels like snake oil, I see why corps may want you to keep buying things from them and start charging premiums / increasing profit margins, but customers seems being duped into the allure of “options”, but they stand to lose more than they gain.

You can still have backwards and some forward compatibility software support in the current generations based model, not sure what you suggest is any better? Having more frequent HW releases that deliver less and less practical value to you but even longer cross-generation periods?
 

reksveks

Member
So they want a PC with the downsides of the platform and none of the benefits (locked Store, little to no game modding, difficulty to add new peripherals controls options [no exclusive software], etc…)?
Those are all assumptions/limitations that you are putting on what a console can look like. I also think certain users don't care about those features just like some users don't care about Game Help or Haptic feedback. I think the Steam Machine model could be doable now (since they have sorted out Proton) if Steam could convince OEM's to make the HW via a rev split model. I personally would take all options if I could even if in practice, I don't use them.

I am sorry, but the “options” feels like snake oil, I see why corps may want you to keep buying things from them and start charging premiums / increasing profit margins, but customers seems being duped into the allure of “options”, but they stand to lose more than they gain.
Again it's a value judgement, I don't value a 3090 a good price to performance ratio for my current desires or outputs, I do value a 3080 to be a good value for the fact that i am outputting at 4k. If I was using a PC to primarily stream to my phone or a 1080p60 then my value judgement changes and a 3080 becomes a bad one. Options allows consumers to choose what they want; it's why I have a Series S. You don't have to pay for the top end model.

You can still have backwards and some forward compatibility software support in the current generations based model, not sure what you suggest is any better? Having more frequent HW releases that deliver less and less practical value to you but even longer cross-generation periods?

Talking about how a more iterative console cycle only works with backward/forward software support which the console manufacturers. If consoles were like the old days of a brand new library of games, then no, I would not support a shorter console cycle. I also don't think users 'really' care about 'Cross-Gen' games, how many people are genuinely upset that H:FW or GT7 is cross-gen, they primarily care about the quality of the game. There definitely is a % that cares about the game/dev maximising the most of their HW but it feels small.

Again your understand of value is different to mines if I find value in 4k60 + RT then yes, the high end console is just equally valuable to me as if you don't and went for the middle tier one. The opposite is true.
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Those are all assumptions/limitations that you are putting on what a console can look like. I also think certain users don't care about those features just like some users don't care about Game Help or Haptic feedback. I think the Steam Machine model could be doable now (since they have sorted out Proton) if Steam could convince OEM's to make the HW via a rev split model.
So this is the 3D0 model?
 

Griffon

Member
Well no shit, it's a PC. Any single model is not supposed to be in production for decades like consoles.

I'm in for model 2.
 

Reallink

Member
Is there any real disadvantage to continually making hardware upgrades to the steam deck every couple of years?
Considering it likely hasn't moved more than a few hundred thousand units to date (based on the preorder counts they exposed), they still haven't demonstrated any demand beyond hardcore PC gamers buying it as a toy and curiosity. The tip top upper bound on that market is probably low single digit million(s), not the 10s of millions they've said they see as a potential. That market may yet exist, but it's definitely not buying $650 hardware off the Steam store. Another unknown is whether their current customer will even use them enough long term to warrant re-buying annual or bi-annual revisions. There is some danger in burn out.

Anecdotally, broader market demand seems low. I got my unit in the week 2 shipment and seeing the stupidly inflated aftermarket prices, listed it on the largest Craigslist city in the state adjusting the price to undercut sold Ebay listings along the way. In a month I only received 2 responses, both offering effectively msrp after taxes. In contrast I sold my PS5 in the launch window for double that and would receive 10 responses a day. This implies little demand beyond the people already stuck in the queue, and even fewer willing to pay more.
 
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Hari Seldon

Gold Member
I got mine a couple of weeks ago. Hardware wise the only upgrades I want are better battery and OLED. The software needs a lot of work. I was about to throw the thing away trying to deal with the keyboard bug when trying to install battle.net as a proton application. But now that it is installed it does work great.
 

Romulus

Member
Considering it likely hasn't moved more than a few hundred thousand units to date (based on the preorder counts they exposed), they still haven't demonstrated any demand beyond hardcore PC gamers buying it as a toy and curiosity. The tip top upper bound on that market is probably low single digit million(s), not the 10s of millions they've said they see as a potential. That market may yet exist, but it's definitely not buying $650 hardware off the Steam store. Another unknown is whether their current customer will even use them enough long term to warrant re-buying annual or bi-annual revisions. There is some danger in burn out.

Anecdotally, broader market demand seems low. I got my unit in the week 2 shipment and seeing the stupidly inflated aftermarket prices, listed it on the largest Craigslist city in the state adjusting the price to undercut sold Ebay listings along the way. In a month I only received 2 responses, both offering effectively msrp after taxes. In contrast I sold my PS5 in the launch window for double that and would receive 10 responses a day. This implies little demand beyond the people already stuck in the queue, and even fewer willing to pay more.


How do we know if the preorders are the main bulk of the purchases and how do we know if that's the total preorders?
 

Reallink

Member
How do we know if the preorders are the main bulk of the purchases and how do we know if that's the total preorders?

When presells first went live they accidentally exposed people's assigned unit number. IIRC they presold around 100k units after 2 hours and were forecasting a ship date of Q3 2022 for those later units at the time (they've since increased production capacity). Every unit they've sold (and continue to sell) is a preorder, they've never had units in stock. Even today you're just putting down a $5 deposit for the opportunity to buy one in 6 months. They expected to take up to 9 months to fulfill those initial 100-150K units, so we can reasonably assume they've (as an absolute best case scenario) perhaps produced and sold around 200-300k units (and that's possibly a wild overestimation given they delayed the initial shipment for an entire quarter). My 256GB was an order number in 3000's, and I didn't even make the first shipment, so you can extrapolate from that the scale of production capacity we're talking about here. They do not have any distribution/retail partners (e.g. Best Buy, Amazon, Walmart, Target, Gamestop, etc...), every unit in existence is a presell from Steam. I would guess their total number of both sells and presells (most still many months from being produced or fulfilled) is somewhere between 500k and 1 million.
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Again it's a value judgement, I don't value a 3090 a good price to performance ratio for my current desires or outputs, I do value a 3080 to be a good value for the fact that i am outputting at 4k. If I was using a PC to primarily stream to my phone or a 1080p60 then my value judgement changes and a 3080 becomes a bad one. Options allows consumers to choose what they want; it's why I have a Series S. You don't have to pay for the top end model.
You are talking about options which do have a cost as developing these options is not free and just removes resources and time to prepare a proper next generation release. The console model is fundamentally built on generations: stable specs that get optimised for by devs.
You gain little in the current console market, with these form factors and price expectations, by increasing the pace of releases just to throw options out there trying to generate demand on things consumers may not need.

You are much much much better off at purchasing a PC and connecting it to your TV if you want the ultimate flexibility: else you are getting the worst of both worlds really.

You are fighting the fact that everything tells us we should slow down the HW release cycles and invest on software and tooling and arguing the opposite to give “options”. That is a bit selling your house to pay off for your restaurant appetite kind of giving yourself options IMHO.

Ultimately the argument is simple: technology is telling us release HW less frequently (why? Reasons in my previous post ;)) and you are suggesting we release more HW more frequently. Maybe gamers like consoles for a reason? Maybe the console market exists and depends on not trying to support an ever increasing variety of options (libraries and tooling efficiency, utilisation of HW and punch above weight effect and all, simplified OS and standardised interactions, etc…). You want a PC with less freedom than a PC, I do not understand how that is better for you or people in general.

Talking about how a more iterative console cycle only works with backward/forward software support which the console manufacturers.
It is required for it, but the inverse is not true. We both know it.

If consoles were like the old days of a brand new library of games, then no, I would not support a shorter console cycle. I also don't think users 'really' care about 'Cross-Gen' games, how many people are genuinely upset that H:FW or GT7 is cross-gen, they primarily care about the quality of the game. There definitely is a % that cares about the game/dev maximising the most of their HW but it feels small.
I do not think that it is small but fleecing them with fake options to keep selling them new HW that sits underused but with “promise” and even longer cross generation windows seems both anti consumer and unethical (and it would backfire eventually).

The quality of cross generation games is impacted by them being cross generation games. We can keep gaslight the customers that are rightfully expecting next generation content trying to convince them that the reason games have not taken the leap they thought they would is not because they are cross gen, but why? We do not make money by duping people do we?

Again your understand of value is different to mines if I find value in 4k60 + RT then yes, the high end console is just equally valuable to me as if you don't and went for the middle tier one. The opposite is true.
You are getting very abstract in finding value. A high end console might be valuable to you, but would not be viable for the market due to its higher price and size, but that is something that could work technically (not sure users would accept it): base console in a generation $499, 2.5-3 years later a premium $599 model is released… problem is that those users would be pissed when 2-3 years later you have a much better $499 base model in the new generation that is faster and has more capabilities (compare XOX with XSX in terms of HW specs, hey some people like the features XSS has over XOX).
 
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reksveks

Member
Ultimately the argument is simple: technology is telling us release HW less frequently (why? Reasons in my previous post ;))
Still releasing other hw upgrades just as frequently as before i.e gpu's or apu's in laptops.

base console in a generation $499, 2.5-3 years later a premium $599 model is released… problem is that those users would be pissed when 2-3 years later you have a much better $499 base model in the new generation that is faster and has more capabilities (compare XOX with XSX in terms of HW specs, hey some people like the features XSS has over XOX).
Happens all the time in the mobile space. Consumers imo largely don't care. Steamdeck/handheld pc users won't largely care.

Think we are going in an unproductive cycle so happy to end it here or with your next reply.
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Still releasing other hw upgrades just as frequently as before i.e gpu's or apu's in laptops.
Uber expensive GPU’s in unbounded PC systems which get to grow big and spend lots of money on cooling is a completely different environment.
In most cases we are rejoicing when a new CPU generation improves performance by 10-15%. So the changes that people need take several generations.

Reality, when I say Technology (not tech companies trying to keep people buying shit ;)) I mean the following:
* Diminishing returns are real: we need larger and larger increases in performance to produce noticeable changes for users
** More HW variety requires more abstracted API’s which reduces efficiency and makes releasing software breakthroughs slower and more limited (see Direct Storage as part of XVA vs how long it took to arrive on the PC platform and it is more limited in scope and flexibility the way it is being used now)
* It takes longer and longer to go from one manufacturing node to the next (which puts a hard limit on how much you can improve performance with or without increasing power consumption)
* It is more and more expensive to design a chip on a newer manufacturing node (costs of designing a new chip in 3nm >>> 5nn >> 7nm > 10 nm)
* Most console gamers do not want much bigger and much more expensive boxes

Hence console cycles should slow down / take a bit longer. Releasing more HW more frequently makes a problem worse and it is a snake oil cure for the disease.

Happens all the time in the mobile space. Consumers imo largely don't care. Steamdeck/handheld pc users won't largely care.
Happens (unused hardware performance, single [or slightly above] digit per generation performance improvements) in the mobile space is what fuels the greed of these choices, chase the Apple success (even Apple is moving more and more into services as they see the gravy train of iterative HW to be less of a huge money maker). Mostly people update for the phone camera (they kind of destroyed the low end and mid end camera market) and smartphones are seen as a must have in today’s society unlike gaming hardware.

The argument you are making is that anti consumer policies and strategies are ok if we can get people not to care they are getting duped btw.

Think we are going in an unproductive cycle so happy to end it here or with your next reply.
Happy to end it here too. Not sure you are reading what I am writing (might be just me sorry), but the discussion can be seen and be useful to others so I keep going.
 
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reksveks

Member
The argument you are making is that anti consumer policies and strategies are ok if we can get people not to care they are getting duped btw.
My argument is largely that its not really anti-consumer if the user has the transparency into the performance (preferably via 3rd parties) and the option to opt out.

Done 😁
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
My argument is largely that its not really anti-consumer if the user has the transparency into the performance (preferably via 3rd parties) and the option to opt out.

Done 😁

That is why we have a PC. Consoles exist and thrive and serve consumers best with fixed hardware continuously iterated over in software, low prices, and ease of setup. You trade those benefits with the lack of modding and frequent HW upgrades.

On PC you can upgrade the HW frequently and you can make it sing better because the community can mod just about any game and help to optimise games the devs do not ;).

Hence why the suggestion you made and that strategy for consoles would be anti consumer. Would still love you to read what I type as it looks like selling hardware that does not deliver gains to people (or diminishing ones) is ok if we can dupe them into buying it… strategy for a quick buck and in a few years to ask ourselves “how did it happen? How did things turn to shit?” 😂.
 
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rodrigolfp

Member
Can't believe it will be more powerful, wow. Never always happened a sucessor being more powerful than the antecessor!
 

Filben

Member
Can we then have a version with the same power the Steam Deck has now (or even less) but with an OLED screen, super silent fan and lower price?

Honestly not needing more power because I use mine for indie games and I can't keep the fan silent; and using an OLED on my PC/PS5 I also want that look in a handheld.
 
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