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So with all this Chip Shortage with the PS5 and Series X

cireza

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15 years ago we were in 2006, the PS2 was still the go-to console. The PS3 was not even released and Xbox 360 was on sale with a component cable and with no HDD. HD gaming hadn't started, we were still using DVDs and there was barely any online gaming for consoles.
God of War 2 was still in development and plenty of life was still left for the PS2.

I'm writing this comment and looking at my PS5 and laughing at how much has changed in 15 years tbh.
15 years ago we were going into a generation that was able to support all the game-design choices we are still using to this day, be it open worlds or action games.

People who have witnessed the gap between 16 bits and 32 bits, and then the move to Dreamcast, know what true progress mean. These were all huge steps. Moving to 3D. Enabling new possibilities. Ever since the PS360 era, we have been making baby steps.
 
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Dream-Knife

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15 years ago we were in 2006, the PS2 was still the go-to console. The PS3 was not even released and Xbox 360 was on sale with a component cable and with no HDD. HD gaming hadn't started, we were still using DVDs and there was barely any online gaming for consoles.
God of War 2 was still in development and plenty of life was still left for the PS2.

I'm writing this comment and looking at my PS5 and laughing at how much has changed in 15 years tbh.
The original Xbox had a HDD. I assume it was removed from the base 360 due to cost cutting measures, and the success of PS2 without it. Much like how Nintendo left the power race after PS2 beat GC.

You're associating resolution with game capability.
 

asustitan

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Seems like everything is made at TSMC, that is hugely important, I think its only a matter of time before China takes over.
 
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ReBurn

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Considering consoles are selling faster than in previous generations even with a chip shortage I doubt anything changes. Consoles are still going to be woefully underpowered in the next couple of years just like they were last gen. A temporary chip crunch doesn't have an impact unless it stalls the evolution of cpu/gpu tech overall.
 

Bernd Lauert

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Consoles are still going to be woefully underpowered in the next couple of years just like they were last gen.
Nah. Last gen was horrible because of the CPU. This gen there is no real bottleneck. These consoles are gonna be decent gaming machines even 5 years from now. The only disappointment will be the raytracing peformance.
 
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ReBurn

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Nah. Last gen was horrible because of the CPU. This gen there is no real bottleneck. These consoles are gonna be decent gaming machines even 5 years from now. The only disappointment will be the raytracing peformance.
There's still bottlenecks. DRS to maintain frame rate and having to choose between quality or performance is the state of console gaming right now. It's stronger than last gen out of the gate but the tech is still underpowered compared to current CPU/GPU tech and just like last gen it's going to show more and more as time goes on. I'd be surprised if it goes a full 6 or 7 years without new models.
 

Duchess

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The Xbox Series X and PS5 will be around for over a decade without a successor in sight.
Even without the chip shortage, I have a feeling that MS and Sony will be moving on from consoles around 2030. I don't know if there will be a PlayStation 6, but I'm almost certain there won't be a PlayStation 7.
 

PixelatedBeast

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Even without the chip shortage, I have a feeling that MS and Sony will be moving on from consoles around 2030. I don't know if there will be a PlayStation 6, but I'm almost certain there won't be a PlayStation 7.
Wishful thinking. Companies dont give up on their most profitable revenue source just cause...:messenger_sunglasses:
 

KAL2006

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Even without the chip shortage, I have a feeling that MS and Sony will be moving on from consoles around 2030. I don't know if there will be a PlayStation 6, but I'm almost certain there won't be a PlayStation 7.

Makes absolute sense that Sony will be like every console we release we make tons of money, maybe we shouldn't release new consoles anymore. You should be the president of Sony. Why make profit when we don't have to right.
 

Duchess

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Makes absolute sense that Sony will be like every console we release we make tons of money, maybe we shouldn't release new consoles anymore. You should be the president of Sony. Why make profit when we don't have to right.
Are you not noticing that this industry is becoming more and more service based?

Sony starting to put their games on PC means they can also use PCs for streaming in data centres, rather than expensive custom hardware.
 
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KAL2006

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Are you not noticing that this industry is becoming more and more service based?

Sony starting to put their games on PC means they can also use PCs for streaming in data centres, rather than expensive custom hardware.

So you can confirm game streaming is higher than traditional sales?
 

KAL2006

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I don’t think he means Sony packs up shop. PlayStation will be completely cloud based for PS7.

Cloud will always have latency, also going cloud only will lose out on other markets who don't have that infastructure. Cloud is going to replace traditional gaming, it's only going to be a addition.
 

Urban

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Man y’all on Neogaf need to chill. Just live and enjoy the moment. Always searching for the thing that is rumoured or in the far future.
 
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Trimesh

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Seems like everything is made at TSMC, that is hugely important, I think its only a matter of time before China takes over.

TSMC happen to be right now the company that has the highest density fully mature process, and it also happens that their process has low leakage that makes it a really good fit for mobile devices where power consumption is a huge deal.

Samsung are at close to the same densities, although their devices typically have higher power consumption.

But the whole point is that it's not just the bleeding edge parts that are in shortage - it's basically everything. A good example are the STM32 series MCUs - these are built on pretty trailing edge process nodes (the smallest are about 40nm) are cheap and are used in huge quantities - right now the factory leadtime for a bunch of popular parts is 120 days+ and pretty much all the stock in the distribution channel has been bought. Same with things like the TI linear/power management parts - normally they would be available in large quantities at all times, but right now if you try to order them you get quoted substantial leadtime.

This has other knock-on effects - normally people with surplus stock will sell them on the secondary market, but with the supply situation this tight they are stockpiling them instead because they might have difficulty restocking. The whole situation is affecting the automotive market especially badly because in a lot of cases AEC-Qxxx qualified parts are only qualified for a certain very specific set of manufacturing parameters - so you might have the same die, but packaged in a different plant using a different mold compound, and that's not an acceptable replacement for the automotive grade part. Worse, since the supply shortages are so widespread lots of people that didn't actually need automotive parts and normally wouldn't buy them because they are more expensive were swallowing the extra cost and buying them anyway because they were available.

There is a lot of capacity coming online and once it does people will start dumping their stockpiles before the market tanks too badly, but right now you have the situation where an underlying shortage has been made far worse by people's reactions to it.
 

T-Cake

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Cloud will always have latency, also going cloud only will lose out on other markets who don't have that infastructure. Cloud is going to replace traditional gaming, it's only going to be a addition.

I think it will replace consoles and anyone who wants to game on a local device will need a PC/laptop/tablet/phone. 15 years or so. The markets that don't have fibre internet by then are still going to be the same markets today that have low console uptake.
 

KAL2006

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I think it will replace consoles and anyone who wants to game on a local device will need a PC/laptop/tablet/phone. 15 years or so. The markets that don't have fibre internet by then are still going to be the same markets today that have low console uptake.

What data do you have that suggests this, is there a decline in console sales trajectory? Is PS5 selling worse than PS4 in the same timeframe
 

T-Cake

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What data do you have that suggests this, is there a decline in console sales trajectory? Is PS5 selling worse than PS4 in the same timeframe

Well we haven't seen the whole package yet. What happens when more people start trying cloud gaming on Game Pass instead of waiting for a download, for example. Same on PS5 when Sony implements their two-hour trials over PS Now (or whatever it was they are supposedly doing). What happens when Microsoft release their XCloud HDMI streaming stick, etc. There's no data. It's just gut feeling at this point in time.
 

Kerotan

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Ps5 Pro in 2025 and ps6 in 2030. I'm super cool with that as the jumps in performance will be more notable.
 

KAL2006

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Well we haven't seen the whole package yet. What happens when more people start trying cloud gaming on Game Pass instead of waiting for a download, for example. Same on PS5 when Sony implements their two-hour trials over PS Now (or whatever it was they are supposedly doing). What happens when Microsoft release their XCloud HDMI streaming stick, etc. There's no data. It's just gut feeling at this point in time.

Ok so no data just assumptions.

Well for me I prefer making predictions based on data. Based on data Cloud gaming is growing and expanding the market, however console gaming is also growing. So my conclusion is console gaming isn't going away in fact growing based on data PS5 outselling PS4 in same timeframe even though it's sold out everywhere. Based on the data I expect the future cloud gaming and console gaming to co-exist with console gaming getting more and more popular as sales trajectory is higher. It's a bit strange to say you have a hunch when the data shows console sales are higher than previous console sales. Your basically saying sales are higher than before but you expect it to be not around because reasons.
 
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Kimahri

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I think there could be some dire situations if it continues. Game dev time will take longer and require re working to be cross gen. It could be pretty rough.

I think the world needs to realise it doesn't need new phones every year. New gpus etc. But that drives new adoption, and these businesses are built on pure consumerism.

It's pretty crazy when you think about it.
The phone market is pure insanity. I just don't get it. What do people need these ridiculously expensive bricks for? I decided to opt out, and haven't paid for a phone in 6-7 years, I just adopt replaced phones from family members. I have never been at a point where I felt I needed more. I just don't understand what people need these new phones for every year.

At least with gaming hardware you get something new and obviously more powerful. What do I need an overpowered piece of machinery to check mails, make calls, browse the net and check instagram now and then? Madness.
 

Woopah

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PS4 and Xbox One are barely being produced anymore, so that generation will soon come to an end in terms of hardware. For software we'll still see PS4 games being made for 3 years at least I think.
 

Duchess

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So you can confirm game streaming is higher than traditional sales?
Mine is a projection of what we'll be seeing in 15 years time (assuming we're not all living underwater by then, due to the ice caps melting).
 

KAL2006

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Mine is a projection of what we'll be seeing in 15 years time (assuming we're not all living underwater by then, due to the ice caps melting).

To create that projection you would still look at current data. Current data hasn't shown console sales reducing in fact launch aligned PS5 is doing better than PS4. The job I do I manage data and look at company projections, I've worked in multiple industries and the way you project is incorrect. You can project growth of cloud gaming without decline of console sales.