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PS5 will outsell Xbox Series consoles 2-to-1 this year, Ampere Analysis forecasts

reksveks

Member
The weird thing is, that article says its sonys target to have 14.8 mill consoles sold by march 2022. Which would mean 1.4million sold between sep 28th 21 and march 31st 22, 1.4mill in 6 months cant be right.

Due to the global shortage and supply constraints, the company plans to cut down its forecast of producing 16 million units this fiscal to now producing 15 million units. Slashing the forecast by 1 million units will make it difficult for the company to meet its target of 14.8 million units sold by March 2022.
So thats the key bit, aka it starts march 21 and ends march 22
 

FunkMiller

Member
Uncharted
Uncharted with zombies
Uncharted with a different type of zombie
Uncharted with dino robots
Uncharted with samurai
Uncharted with vikings
Uncharted with UPS
?
It's quite an impressive list, I agree.

You can make an argument that Sony’s first party output can be a little too reliant on third person single player experiences… but this post is absolutely fucking moronic. Uncharted like Death Stranding?
 

ParaSeoul

Member
It's not much of a prediction when much of the rest of the world sees the Xbox as evil.

Or doesn't see it at all
 

Sosokrates

Gold Member
So thats the key bit, aka it starts march 21 and ends march 22

So 9.2mill between 28/9/21 and 31/03/22.

Yeah i could see that.

I wonder how sony is able to produce more then Microsoft.

Microsoft should be more agressive here, they are not doing as good of a job.
Bring back the more cutthroat and savy peter moore. He would secure the manufacturing needed. 😊
 
So 9.2mill between 28/9/21 and 31/03/22.

Yeah i could see that.

I wonder how sony is able to produce more then Microsoft.

Microsoft should be more agressive here, they are not doing as good of a job.
Bring back the more cutthroat and savy peter moore. He would secure the manufacturing needed. 😊

PS5 started production before Xbox, also can’t omit Xcloud and it’s contribution to shortages
 

reksveks

Member
I wonder how sony is able to produce more then Microsoft.
Combination of xbox starting production later and just ordering less imo. They have different expectations in terms of shipments. Whether those expectations close up, who knows?

And yeah, there is the xcloud server factor as well.
 

Boy bawang

Member
Until I can walk into a store and buy whichever console I want, comparing console sales will just be comparing production capacities.
 

Goalus

Member
They won't stop.
This gen has already started, the ship has already sailed. Microsoft will only focus on full exclusivity starting next gen, when they abandon hardware and move to cloud only streaming.
How can they abandon hardware if they move to cloud streaming?
They need power-efficient, console-like hardware in this case that they can mass-produce and populate their data centers with. And if they have console-like hardware, the logical thing would be to sell it as a console if there is demand from consumers.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
We dont know, because we dont know how much it sold.
I trust we all agree shipped=sold for this exercise since the delta is likely so small to be irrelevant.
While we don't have exact figures - the 2020 analyst estimate (3.5M) fits with what MS publicly commented on the matter. The actual figure can't be too far off (the 99% confidence interval should be 3.5 - 4.5) (above X1, below PS4).

Then we have two more pieces of data:
>360 LTD in same time frame (so 10M+ by YE 2021)
Same source that provided 2020 figure puts it at 12M by 2021 YE.

Putting it all together you have a range of 5.5M - 8.5M for 2021.
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
imo pandemic manufacture problems were bless for microsoft as with 0 games on premiere and if there were no problems with consoles availability it would be slaughter at the beginning like 3 or maybe 4 to 1 and it would be very hard to change this but now after bethesda and activision aqusitions should be very interesting
 

Sosokrates

Gold Member
I trust we all agree shipped=sold for this exercise since the delta is likely so small to be irrelevant.
While we don't have exact figures - the 2020 analyst estimate (3.5M) fits with what MS publicly commented on the matter. The actual figure can't be too far off (the 99% confidence interval should be 3.5 - 4.5) (above X1, below PS4).

Then we have two more pieces of data:
>360 LTD in same time frame (so 10M+ by YE 2021)
Same source that provided 2020 figure puts it at 12M by 2021 YE.

Putting it all together you have a range of 5.5M - 8.5M for 2021.

Where u get the 5.5 from lol.

I don't really care for singling out individual years, what matters is total sold.

The Xbox one sold 10million by 12/11/14, so if the Xseries is ahead of that + xmass its hard to know where sales are at. They could be approaching 14million by now if they had sold more then 10mill by Nov 12th.
 

reksveks

Member
imo pandemic manufacture problems were bless for microsoft as with 0 games on premiere and if there were no problems with consoles availability it would be slaughter at the beginning like 3 or maybe 4 to 1 and it would be very hard to change this but now after bethesda and activision aqusitions should be very interesting
3:1 or 4:1 doesn't make sense imo unless you think Sony are selling > 32m consoles in a year. Yes, the manufacturing problems is making this tight but lets not go hyperbolic. PS2 max was 22.52 annually and 28.83 was the switch I think. If i was to stick a number on it, i think it would be an 2.5x difference maybe.
 
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Do you even know how many xbox 360 players actually jumped to ps4 last gen because Microsoft fucked the drm and all that shit up?

Crossing fingers for the news going easy on you when you find out like the rest of the world these games will be exclusive.

No one buys a 70 bn company to release multi platforms.

By that feeling of entitlement, then you would provscly demand the games to be fully f2p on your console as well because Microsoft should never get a dime from you.
While I'm straying off point a bit, your post highlights something that I haven'tseen mentioned.

While there were plenty of 360 users that jumped to PS4 as you pointed out. I'm not so ready to believe that many of them will so easily jump back.

The Xbox One's DRM was only one of several problems Microsoft had with it's console back then. It was less powerful on the gpu side, but cost more. There was the DRM, but just as many people complained about fear that the kinect was spying on you. Ridiculousfanboys aside, fans of Sony products are cut from a different type of cloth. No other fanbase goes to such lengths or puts so much effort into marketing their preferred company.

Today many of the roles are reversed when it comes to the new consoles. However, there's nowhere close to the same level of criticism. Of course there's no Xbox exec scurrying to make a commercial comparing Xbox's buy once, play anywhere advantage, or it's games price advantage, but still... it wouldn'tmatter if they had. Whether the fears about the kinect spying on you were justified or not. The fact that apparently only the crickets appear to be concerned about Sony having a mic in it's controller listening to everything you say says a lot.

There's a whole plethora of casual gamers that largely don't pay attention to details the way the people that regularly post at GAF do. Many of them were swayed to go with the PS4 last gen largely due to the hyperbole making the rounds everywhere by fans stoking the fires and handing out pitchforks. There's no call to arms this time around, no fears being played up, and little hyperbole being spread around the way it was before.

So there's quite a bit of truth in your comment regarding crossed fingers about news, and entitlement. Similar behavior just kind of comes with the territory when you're a fan of certain products it seems, and Sony's certainly not alone when it comes to this either. Apple has long been renowned for the same thing, as well Harley Davidson, John Deere, Snap On, as well as many others.

Just to be clear. There's a clear difference between the trolling and fud spreading fanboy types vs what I'm talking about here. Fortunately, the console warring type of Sony/Xbox fanboys that persists in gaming is largely absent elsewhere. Just wanting to clarify that as I don't want anyone taking me the wrong way.
 

Bo_Hazem

Gold Dealer
So 9.2mill between 28/9/21 and 31/03/22.

Yeah i could see that.

I wonder how sony is able to produce more then Microsoft.

Microsoft should be more agressive here, they are not doing as good of a job.
Bring back the more cutthroat and savy peter moore. He would secure the manufacturing needed. 😊

I think both are getting from different vendors, or yielding different results, or both.
 
imo pandemic manufacture problems were bless for microsoft as with 0 games on premiere and if there were no problems with consoles availability it would be slaughter at the beginning like 3 or maybe 4 to 1 and it would be very hard to change this but now after bethesda and activision aqusitions should be very interesting

Sodium Chloride.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
I don't really care for singling out individual years, what matters is total sold.
Why argue with the discussion about 2021 number then?

Where u get the 5.5 from lol.
I explained the ranges in my post. If you want a tighter lower-bound, use the hard-figure 2020 estimate instead of the range.

...if the Xseries is ahead of that ... its hard to know where sales are at. They could be ... if they had ...
That's why estimates are done on data with "some" degree of confidence on - not 'what ifs'.
When more data is known - you adjust the confidence factors/update ranges (if they changed).
 
PlayStation isn't still at 18m if still Sony targeting 14m lol Console are lot closer than what Xbo and PS4 was ...and the Xss strategy is paying off really well

Being close to PS is lame. After almost 80b on massive publishers, if they don't pull ahead of PS, it would look like a fail and weak on Microsofts part. Uou don't spend that much, only to stay behind your competitors. Microsoft want the xbox brand to be as big as PS and Nintendo are and these acquisitions may be the only way to even make it possible.
 
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Woopah

Member
I love how the irony is lost in that reply.

what successful new IP does Nintendo have? Splatoon. Sony created multiple 10 million seller ip in the last decade.
In terms of 10 million selling new IP in the last decade, Sony has The Last of Us and Horizon while Nintendo has Ring Fit Adventure (I wouldn't count Splatoon as that didn't hit 10 million until the sequel.) So in the regard the difference between them is not that much,.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
Being close to PS is lame. After almost 80b on massive publishers, if they don't pull ahead of PS, it would look like a fail and weak on Microsofts part. Uou don't spend that much, only to stay behind your competitors. Microsoft want the xbox brand to be as big as PS and Nintendo are and these acquisitions may be the only way to even make it possible.
Microsoft isn't followijgn Sony in this race at the last box sold. They release games day one on PC and ALSO sell consoles ..they already have a user reach (adding PC console and Xcloud users) that the PS5 will not have not even at the end of the generation. Unless they follow Microsoft by releasing games on day one on PC. Microsoft's investment in publishers is made to fill gamepasses with appealing contents.....the more time passes the more positive word of mouth about gamepass becomes evident .... Microsoft cares mainly this..the profit margins on the boxes are almost irrelevant to them
 
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I explained the ranges in my post. If you want a tighter lower-bound, use the hard-figure 2020 estimate instead of the range.


That's why estimates are done on data with "some" degree of confidence on - not 'what ifs'.
When more data is known - you adjust the confidence factors/update ranges (if they changed).
I get what you're saying on the "data", and "with confidence". But if the data we have is that it's LTD was better than the 360, which was 10m, as well as the additional source you cited which further narrowed it to the 12mil range... Why do your estimates only go a million at best above at 13, but down to 9 million, when both sets of data state it easily clears the 10 million mark?

I'm not completely up to date on what all numbers have been released or what numbers sources have stated, so I may very well be missing something, and asking stupid questions. I'm just wondering why you'd think it safe to estimate your low end considering the known data, as well as why you're playing ot safe on the high end.
 

Lognor

Banned
Still waiting for multiple new Nintendo IP that sold 10 million in the last decade? Wait, what? They don’t exist. Try harder, bud. Just admit you’re a Sony hater.
So you didn't read my post? I named two. Ring Fit and Splatoon. Try harder, pal.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Why do your estimates only go a million at best above at 13, but down to 9 million
They don't - the idea was estimating 2021 number(s) based off of LTD ranges at two points in time. Basically LTD ranges are an input, not an output.

I'm just wondering why you'd think it safe to estimate your low end considering the known data, as well as why you're playing ot safe on the high end.
Low-end is primarily based off comparison to prior consoles, with other corroborating evidence - so that is pretty reliable at this point.
Top-end in both cases has an upper-bound at PS4/PS5 figure. Which is more problematic for EOY 2021 since it gives a range of 10-18.5M (and depending on how much PS5 sold, there's no guarantee that range will reduce).
I stuck with 12M given the source has been reasonably accurate in the past, 8.5M is above average(and above median) of what XBox has historically sold per year, and all prior XBoxes were below said average in first full year, even without post-Covid production constraints. Historical data is a factor here as even without chip-shortages, platform holders plan their production capacity pretty far in advance, and sales still look mostly production constrained to date for Series consoles.

Another way to look at it, if Series was at say - 14M EOY 2021, that would be 40% above any XBox before it, and the first time XBox sold over 10M in its first full year. Would MS really stay quiet about it if that happened?
 

DenchDeckard

Gold Member
Being close to PS is lame. After almost 80b on massive publishers, if they don't pull ahead of PS, it would look like a fail and weak on Microsofts part. Uou don't spend that much, only to stay behind your competitors. Microsoft want the xbox brand to be as big as PS and Nintendo are and these acquisitions may be the only way to even make it possible.

Tbf it's not a change that would happen over night. It will take years to see a shift, probably not until next gen at the earliest. You don't just magically eradicate sonys 25+ years of gaming history with a few purchases.
 

DForce

Member
who are those people ? show me factual data i didn't accept and where I accused someone for showing them.
You do it all the time.

Even here just recently


You said a person was right when he used Twitch views to prove how popular a multiplayer title was.

I can go back even further. XboxGAF members tend to ignore a lot of data and accuse people of downplaying or being salty.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
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DForce

Member
He is right
He's right is not a counterargument. I also proved he was wrong.

He's not.

Guilty Gear: Strive is a very niche game and it currently has 507 Twitch viewers

This game sold fewer copies than MLB The Show and GT Sport.

Forza 7 has 12
GT Sport has 60
Last of Us has 304 Twitch viewers, where at least 27 are watching the multiplayer.
MLB The Show has 249
Gears of War 5 has 258

Call of Duty Vanguard has 2.5k
Destiny 2 has 8.3k

More popular multiplayer games based on your logic.

Destiny 2 > Halo Infinite > Call of Duty

Guilty Gear: Strive > MLB The Show > Gears 5 > Last of Us > Gran Turismo Sport > Forza 7


This metric doesn't hold up. lol

Try proving this wrong. Your\his Analysis isn't consistent.
 

DenchDeckard

Gold Member
Sony will be sharing their numbers this week and I am sure they’ve had another incredible quarter and year.
I would honestly be surprised if Sony manages a 2 to 1 sales vs the series consoles but what do I know lol.
anything is possible. If Sony manage to sell 2 to 1 vs what is a great offering From MS then I would say MS would Struggle to ever close the gap.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
He's right is not a counterargument. I also proved he was wrong.



Try proving this wrong. Your\his Analysis isn't consistent.

www.jamiewoodcock.net/blog/the-impacts-of-live-streaming-and-twitch-tv-on-the-video-game-industry/


 

DForce

Member
You can't come up with a response, so you try to escape by linking an article that doesn't prove your point.

You haven't addressed any of the data I provided because it contradicts your entire claim.

Tell me, why do less popular multiplayer titles have more viewers than other games that sold better and have a higher concurrent player count?
 

MonarchJT

Banned
You can't come up with a response, so you try to escape by linking an article that doesn't prove your point.

You haven't addressed any of the data I provided because it contradicts your entire claim.

Tell me, why do less popular multiplayer titles have more viewers than other games that sold better and have a higher concurrent player count?
are very rare cases genrally exposure on stuff like twitch are VERY important and as YouTube are a good barometer to understand how much a product is desired or wanted ... the same can be said about Twitch tv
 
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