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PS5 will outsell Xbox Series consoles 2-to-1 this year, Ampere Analysis forecasts

reksveks

Member
Oh wow! I did not know that. I wonder how many of that 22M these damn scalpers were able to get a hold of... too much I'm going to guess "lollipop_disappointed:
They will sell around 22 mil by the end of the fiscal year (march)

That 22m is Ltd forecasted and would require a serious increase in supply that I have not seen yet.
 
Freakin' hell ... more of this garbage.

The hit to Sony's bottom line is going to be marginal in the worst case forecasted scenario. Knock it off with the doom and gloom nonsense.


Between .3 -1% of current revenue loss. It's practically nothing. I don't think you even know how big Activision is vs. Sony if based on what you're saying. You talk total and complete nonsense and frame it like it's a real life scenario.

Sony is going to continue on and keep doing what they do, and they will be fine.

That analysis doesn't seem to account for the large amount of COD players switching to Xbox and the money they spend on other games that Sony will no longer get. Plus all those people no longer buying PS+. That seems like a very optimistic scenario for Sony for what would happen if COD went exclusive, and I can't imagine Sony would be that naïve
 

skneogaf

Member
I predict that the ps5 and the xbox series x will sell every console produced in 2022.

Xbox series s will still be able to found if you go looking.

I don't care about the switch.
 

Sanepar

Member
MS didn't spend 70billion or even 7.5 billion on Bethesda to sell more consoles. This should be amply clear by now.

There much easier and cheaper ways to sell more consoles.

Like releasing system seller software (Starfield being one).
Explain that to Xbox fan boys around here. Ms doesn't care about hw numbers anymore and they dream with the day they will not need to produce consoles anymore.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
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Sosokrates

Founder of western console warring.
MS didn't spend 70billion or even 7.5 billion on Bethesda to sell more consoles. This should be amply clear by now.

There much easier and cheaper ways to sell more consoles.

Like releasing system seller software (Starfield being one).

Actually they did, its just not the only reason.
 
let's if..the production grow ...let's see if the series console will stop the ride they had in the Christmas holidays ... let's see if we will have 2: 1 after all this bad news the Sony console
What bad news?

COD which is the biggest franchise and only real important franchise from Activision, is still gonna be on PS consoles.

Provided that remains true going forwards, for PS owners, nothing changes.

I think you're too drunk on your M&A cheerleader victory party wine to see reality.
 
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MonarchJT

Banned
What bad news?

COD which is the biggest franchise and only real important franchise from Activision, is still gonna be on PS consoles.

Provided that remains true going forwards, for PS owners, nothing changes.
COD....Spyro and crash Bandicoot (ex Sony mascotte)
i don't think cod mainline will ever see the light on ps if Sony doesn't allow gamepass. the others ips not even an argument.

yeah Bethesda and Activision owned by Sony direct rival is not a problem for Sony yeah

I'm sure your would say the same if the opposite would happen lol
 
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reksveks

Member
If you actually take the 12m estimate as a fact, then no, it didn't
Working backwards from that figure - 2021 shipments would land somewhere between 7.5-9.5M.
Yeah, this analysis is basically assuming no growth for the xbox side. I doubt it personally unless they really haven't been able to put in bigger orders for chips. I am interested to know how they think Sony is going to be be massively to grow production (using the fact that they planned to ship 15m in 12months this FY)
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
I am interested to know how they think Sony is going to be be massively to grow production (using the fact that they planned to ship 15m in 12months this FY)
There are multiple ways to look at this.
MS shipped 8.5 in 2021 based off of Zhuge's estimates. Sony reports 8.9 in first 3 quarters alone, so a lot rides on what Q4 looks like.
In traditional - non production limited years, Q4 would normally be at least 50% of total shipments in a given year(ie. more than the first 3Qs combined), which would put PS5 comfortably over 2:1 ratio.
But in 2021 that's not a claim we can reliably make(and indeed is likely to fall short of), so just have to wait for Sony's report to see.

The flipside is that MS has historically never shipped more than 15M of any of their consoles within a calendar year, and usually had sustained peaks in 10-12M range for their successful years. Historical precedents may again, be kind of worthless in post-covid world, but it's all we have to go on, so if MS was able to grow to that range, Sony would need to increase their production to 20+M to keep the 2:1.
Even assuming Sony hit their forecasts, I have no idea how likely a production increase of 30-40% over that is in 2022.
 
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reksveks

Member
In traditional - non production limited years, Q4 would normally be at least 50% of total shipments in a given year(ie. more than the first 3Qs combined), which would put PS5 comfortably over 2:1 ratio.
I was interested and based off the years that I have, the closest that Sony's Q3 aka normal Q4 has gotten to 50% is FY16 where it was 9.7/20 so just under but yeah, its around 40-50%.

But in 2021 that's not a claim we can reliably make(and indeed is likely to fall short of), so just have to wait for Sony's report to see.
Yeah, I am assuming around 4.5m based on the info from the NPD data and GI.biz but we will see in 2 weeks.

The flipside is that MS has historically never shipped more than 15M of any of their consoles within a calendar year, and usually had sustained peaks in 10-12M range for their successful years
I am personally assuming it's in the 10m range again this year but as you mentioned, that would require a 20m production for Sony and that seems like a real stretch.
 

MonarchJT

Banned
There are multiple ways to look at this.
MS shipped 8.5 in 2021 based off of Zhuge's estimates. Sony reports 8.9 in first 3 quarters alone, so a lot rides on what Q4 looks like.
In traditional - non production limited years, Q4 would normally be at least 50% of total shipments in a given year(ie. more than the first 3Qs combined), which would put PS5 comfortably over 2:1 ratio.
But in 2021 that's not a claim we can reliably make(and indeed is likely to fall short of), so just have to wait for Sony's report to see.

The flipside is that MS has historically never shipped more than 15M of any of their consoles within a calendar year, and usually had sustained peaks in 10-12M range for their successful years. Historical precedents may again, be kind of worthless in post-covid world, but it's all we have to go on, so if MS was able to grow to that range, Sony would need to increase their production to 20+M to keep the 2:1.
Even assuming Sony hit their forecasts, I have no idea how likely a production increase of 30-40% over that is in 2022.
and series console won most important holiday sales Nov and Dec on NDP so we know that in the last quarter they sold less than Xbox
 
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Fafalada

Fafracer forever
I was interested and based off the years that I have, the closest that Sony's Q3 aka normal Q4 has gotten to 50% is FY16 where it was 9.7/20 so just under but yeah, its around 40-50%.
Yea it does seem like Sony's reliance on outsized holliday quarters have been reduced somewhat in recent decade. Things used to be more lopsided in 00s, where PS2 had some holiday quarters that would account for over 60% of yearly sales even.
I was also thinking in industry-wide perspective, where MS/Nintendo 'feel' like they're still more obviously holiday centric (though I'm too lazy to look-up where Nintendo lands for last decade).

and series console won most important holiday sales Nov and Dec on NDP so we know that in the last quarter they sold less than Xbox
Sure - but that's at best around 30% of coverage for PS, and even X1 was winning NPD holiday months (or even quarters) when it was at its worst, being beaten well above 2:1 on yearly basis. Without any concrete numbers it's hard to draw much from it.
 
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and series console won most important holiday sales Nov and Dec on NDP so we know that in the last quarter they sold less than Xbox

Wasn't it literally like by a 100k? Sony can make that up in Japan, never mind when you add in Europe. Microsoft will need a big lead in the US to offset the rest of the world.
 
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reksveks

Member
Wasn't it literally like by a 100k? Sony can make that up in Japan, never mind when you add in Europe.
We should have a good idea of the JP difference thanks to the Famitsu data.

JP

ES - Vandal seems to be alot lower than GameReactor ES


ES- GameReactor Annual


PS will definitely make up the game in terms of the whole numbers. In terms of the ratio, not sure yet.
 

EverydayBeast

thinks Halo Infinite is a new graphical benchmark
PS5 and Xbox series s/x are walking a similar path, the difference is gamers know they can get Xbox series s/x games on PC.
 

Vognerful

Member
That analysis doesn't seem to account for the large amount of COD players switching to Xbox and the money they spend on other games that Sony will no longer get. Plus all those people no longer buying PS+. That seems like a very optimistic scenario for Sony for what would happen if COD went exclusive, and I can't imagine Sony would be that naïve


The article also does not provide any source to the original report or claim by citigroup. I tried searching in Google but couldn't find any other source linking it or talking about it.

Doesn't warzone mike like 2 or 3 millions a day? That would bring 700 million USD dollars without adding CoD yearly sales. 600 million USD for games solds. I will use around 20 million user subscribed to ps plus which means another 600 million USD.

That would put total estimated loses = (700+600)/2/3+600=850 million USD.

(My math could be way off)
 

reksveks

Member
The article also does not provide any source to the original report or claim by citigroup. I tried searching in Google but couldn't find any other source linking it or talking about it.

Doesn't warzone mike like 2 or 3 millions a day? That would bring 700 million USD dollars without adding CoD yearly sales. 600 million USD for games solds. I will use around 20 million user subscribed to ps plus which means another 600 million USD.

That would put total estimated loses = (700+600)/2/3+600=850 million USD.

(My math could be way off)
I am also trying to figure out their calculations cause Activision rev for console was about 2.5-3bn usd for the last 12 months.
 
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