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News PS5 Sales Expected to ‘Significantly Outperform’ Xbox Series X, Says DFC Intelligence

oldergamer

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I once followed a long, complex thread on GAF regarding Xbox profitability. The conclusion I came to, as did several other members of that thread, was that it is really an impenetrable question, because of the way MS accounts for costs. A lot of the indirect costs of running Xbox are offloaded to other sectors. These costs don't show on the Xbox budget, but on some other budget. I'm not saying it's deceptive. It's just a reflection of how MS budgets things, in a large company with so many overlapping services. Another problem is that the way they account for things often shifts around, so that it's not always clear what cost is being absorbed by which department.

Bottom line, you can't take Xbox division financial statements at face value. A lot of the costs just don't show up there, because they are accounted for by other departments.
You could say the same about sony even though its still incorrect. If something isnt under the gaming umbrella, it wont get reported as part of the game division financials. This is how business works. You dont know if the game division internally had to pay for services from other divisions. Judging by the way ms runs things, u could be assured they are doing that. Gaming isnt lumped in with other divisions like it was before ms restructured to be a services based software company.

Xbox is bringing in billions of revenue per quarter.
 
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Humdinger

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You could say the same about sony even though its still incorrect. If something isnt under the gaming umbrella, it wont get reported as part of the game division financials. This is how business works. You dont know if the game division internally had to pay for services from other divisions. Judging by the way ms runs things, u could be assured they are doing that. Gaming isnt lumped in with other divisions like it was before ms restructured to be a services based software company.

Xbox is bringing in billions of revenue per quarter.

No, it's not AS true of Sony as it of MS. MS's products and services are much more overlapping than Sony's. For example, with MS, you've got all the Windows PC stuff and all the cloud infrastructure investments, all of which feed into Xbox, yet are accounted for separately. You don't have anything comparable at Sony. You've got Gakai, but that's small potatoes compared to MS's investments in this space. MS also does a lot of R&D that falls outside the Xbox division, yet which Xbox benefits from (i.e., does not have to account for those costs).

This is part of why you never see long, complex threads about whether Playstation is *actually* profitable, whereas you see that frequently with Xbox. The threads tend to be long and involved (if they are serious rather than just drive-by postings). I grant you that some of that relates to the tilt of the forum, but I've seen similar threads on Ree, and they all end up in the same place.

No one can really tell whether or how by how much Xbox is profitable. Even you, in your final point, are only able to point to revenue, which is miles away from an assessment of profit.
 
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May 4, 2020
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PS5 will sell 170 million units (20 million more than PS2 and 50 million more than PS4)

SeX and Lockhart combined will sell 25 million units (half of Xbox One)

Got it. But I wouldn't put too much stock into a chart titled 2022-2027 when the bars are 2020-2027.

Thank you kindly for pointing this out. Corrected.
 

Hobbygaming

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incorrect. you can wish that all you want, but its simply not true. How do you think it was that MS acquired Mojang? You don't think that was MS money?
The least risky acquisition possible and already a huge success. That money could've been used for a lot of big AAA games for Xbox fans
 

RGB'D

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Honestly unless you’re a die hard Xbox fan, there is no compelling reason to get a Series X at the moment.
Your not wrong. But I mean... same thing for PS5. No reason to pick up either anytime soon. Especially with expected delays to production of consoles and games. We are looking at a fairly barren gaming landscape for launch window before a global pandemic changed the timetables. I just hate that this point is only made for the Xbox Seties X when it’s just as true for PS5. As for me I will likely upgrade my GPU now, and then pick up a series x for my family room TV sometime next year. I’ll grab a PS5 in a couple years when the exclusives I can’t play on my PS4 Pro come out.
 
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DavidGzz

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The same people who bought an XB1X and a PS4Pro will upgrade once again. For the more casual who don't want to spend as much there is an XSS+Game Pass. For people who want to spend even less and don't mind playing games on their phones, there is Game Pass+Xcloud.
 
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The same people who bought an XB1X and a PS4Pro will upgrade once again. For the more casual who don't want to spend as much there is an XSS+Game Pass. For people who want to spend even less and don't mind playing games on their phones, there is Game Pass+Xcloud.
Why would someone who play on their phones sign up to a subscription service?
Phone players are drowning in free GaaS games fighting for their patronage. What makes Xbox think Gamepass would be able to convince these people to pay a monthly fee for games?

If you think Microsoft can just waltz into phone gaming and take over the place, you are sadly mistaken.
 

FunkMiller

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incorrect. you can wish that all you want, but its simply not true. How do you think it was that MS acquired Mojang? You don't think that was MS money?

Sorry, this is a fundamental lack of understanding of how major corporations function. Xbox does not have access to all of Microsoft’s money. Shareholders would never allow corporate funds to be consistently funnelled into one division.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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Your not wrong. But I mean... same thing for PS5. No reason to pick up either anytime soon. Especially with expected delays to production of consoles and games. We are looking at a fairly barren gaming landscape for launch window before a global pandemic changed the timetables. I just hate that this point is only made for the Xbox Seties X when it’s just as true for PS5. As for me I will likely upgrade my GPU now, and then pick up a series x for my family room TV sometime next year. I’ll grab a PS5 in a couple years when the exclusives I can’t play on my PS4 Pro come out.

I think 4K remasters of GoT and TLOU2 at launch (likely?) will be huge selling point for PS5 alone. One of the bosses of PS said they want to get PS4 gamers to transition to PS5 faster than ever and next gen ports will help that.
 
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DavidGzz

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Why would someone who play on their phones sign up to a subscription service?
Phone players are drowning in free GaaS games fighting for their patronage. What makes Xbox think Gamepass would be able to convince these people to pay a monthly fee for games?

If you think Microsoft can just waltz into phone gaming and take over the place, you are sadly mistaken.

Because you have access to 300-400 games and phone gamers are already spending plenty of money on lame microtransactions or else mobile gaming wouldn't be such a cash cow. Easy. Next.
 
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Sleepwalker

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People will sign up when they see a game they like, play it and perhaps play something else along the way after it. Then either see the value in purchasing a long sub or will turn off auto renew, only to come back when a new game that interests them comes into the service and start the cycle again.

Phone gamers (and I suppose) specially tablet gamers will have access to AAA games that their devices obviously cannot run natively, and that alone is already a huge advantage. They won't spend $500 on a PS5 or a new xbox but will probably chuck $10-15 at a month to check out the new Halo, Gears or whatever 3rd party game is currently available.
 
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People will sign up when they see a game they like, play it and perhaps play something else along the way after it. Then either see the value in purchasing a long sub or will turn off auto renew, only to come back when a new game that interests them comes into the service and start the cycle again.

Phone gamers (and I suppose) specially tablet gamers will have access to AAA games that their devices obviously cannot run natively, and that alone is already a huge advantage. They won't spend $500 on a PS5 or a new xbox but will probably chuck $10-15 at a month to check out the new Halo, Gears or whatever 3rd party game is currently available.
Phone gamers will NOT pay any amount of money to ACCESS games. They already got all the free games they could ever need. You don't seem to understand the market any more than Microsoft does; the phone market does not lack games, and any game that cost subscription to even access is DoA.
 

DavidGzz

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Phone gamers will NOT pay any amount of money to ACCESS games. They already got all the free games they could ever need. You don't seem to understand the market any more than Microsoft does; the phone market does not lack games, and any game that cost subscription to even access is DoA.


Man, you think you know it all. What all mobile phone carriers will or won't do. People with phones have subs. Netflix, Disney plus, etc. They also play mobile shooters with shit graphics, now imagine if they can access the high-end version of said shooters for $15. They play mobile games cause that's all they have access to, if they can access console games they would do that instead. If there wasn't a case for people wanting more of a console experience on the go, how do you explain the Switch's success?
 

Hezekiah

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1. XSS will be the cheapest console
2. The XSX will not be $100 more expensive than PS5 like Xbox One was compared to PS4
3. PS5 will not have the power advantage
4. Game Pass will be there at launch instead of 4.5 years after launch
5. Messaging is way better than with Xbox One
6. Launching with a Halo
7. BC from the get go, didn't it take a couple years for Xbox One to get it?
8. Much better looking future exclusives like Avowed, Fable, Scorn, etc

With that said can you explain how this would be possible because it seems pretty laughable.
5. Come on bro, the messaging has been terrible. How many games before the Xbox event were labelled as 'coming to Xbox', and then changed to 'XSX only' afterward? Chuck in the Greenberg tweet and it's been a joke. Oh and XSS hasn't even been announced yet.
6. And it has had a terrible reception. And it's not the IP it once was when you look at sales and reviews.
8. Seriously, Avowed and Fable where virtually no gameplay footage was shown? Realistically Sony owns much bigger exclusive IPs. There'll be more hype for GoW than for Avowed and Fable for example.

And then you have Microsoft throwing away any power advantage it has (likely going to be far less noticeable than some are suggesting anyway), by supporting an eight-year old platform, including a positively archaic CPU.
 

Plague Doctor

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Regarding Microsoft doesn't care about selling consoles.

I have a great feeling about this. Microsoft has been batting a 1,000 when it comes to chasing trends in the gaming market at the start of a console gen in the past decade...
 
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Redlancet

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1. Well there was that photo of PS5 in a chinese factory that was accidentally released. So there are leaks. Really, at this point Series S is more wishful thinking than reality. There is no time to reveal it now.

2. It doesn't matter what MS wants, MS always over-prices their hardware above what game forum expected. You can talk about warchest all you like, that never worked out.

3. Playstation didn't have a power advantage historically, it doesn't stop past Playstations from dominating. So my point is that it barely matters.

4. Gamepass is not that profitable and most claims of its importance comes from future expectations, not current success. Either way, Xbox has hitched to wagon to Gamepass and it lives or dies by it now. The fate is sealed either way.

5. The fact is Xbox PR has basically destroyed all trust. No one really believe anything they say anymore, because they already lied too much. The only difference is that an Xbox fan would assume Xbox PR is hiding something good (like the mythical Series S/Lockhart), rather than hiding something bad (like the lack of Series X exclusive 1st party games for 2 years).

6. If Graphics aren't everything, then maybe Series X shouldn't be over-engineered to the point that they couldn't use it for the Showcase, despite it being 4 months away from launch.

7. We will see if any of that is true, once we actually see Series X running games. Because I am sure no one has seen it do that yet outside of game studios.

8. You remind me of a fan last year, who claim that Sony not announcing what they are doing for so long must mean they are not doing anything at all. That if Playstation isn't constantly reporting to the media about their projects that it means they must not have any projects.

Finally, yes, there is a way for Series X to sell worse than Xbox One. Because i have seen many console companies die by this point, I saw what had happened before can happen again. Your assumption that Xbox can live forever holding onto its current install base, is not realistic. Nintendo worked really hard to get the lost fans to return for Switch after wiiU, it didn't occur by itself for nothing. There is no baseline; if you mess up, your customer base will drop further.

chicken legs is full of wishfull thinking,time will put people on their place
 

NullZ3r0

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Just 2:1 is a pretty conservative estimate.
I don't think you know what conservative means. PS4 sold 2:1 with Microsoft screwing up out of the gate, a higher price and hardly any AAA first party content.

Let's not pretend that PS5 sold simply on the name "Playstation" alone. PS5 won't have a price advantage and their launch lineup looks mediocre. This is why Sony is throwing money at exclusive characters and skins.
 

DavidGzz

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5. Come on bro, the messaging has been terrible. How many games before the Xbox event were labelled as 'coming to Xbox', and then changed to 'XSX only' afterward? Chuck in the Greenberg tweet and it's been a joke. Oh and XSS hasn't even been announced yet.
6. And it has had a terrible reception. And it's not the IP it once was when you look at sales and reviews.
8. Seriously, Avowed and Fable where virtually no gameplay footage was shown? Realistically Sony owns much bigger exclusive IPs. There'll be more hype for GoW than for Avowed and Fable for example.

And then you have Microsoft throwing away any power advantage it has (likely going to be far less noticeable than some are suggesting anyway), by supporting an eight-year old platform, including a positively archaic CPU.

I'm comparing XSX to Xbox One, not the PS5. My post was explaining how it will sell better than Xbox One.
 

Jadsey

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I think between Sony’s continued dominance and Nintendo’s awesome resurgence, things look grim indeed for Xbox.

I think we might even be looking at below WiiU numbers for next gen....
 
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Unknown?

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I don't think you know what conservative means. PS4 sold 2:1 with Microsoft screwing up out of the gate, a higher price and hardly any AAA first party content.

Let's not pretend that PS5 sold simply on the name "Playstation" alone. PS5 won't have a price advantage and their launch lineup looks mediocre. This is why Sony is throwing money at exclusive characters and skins.
You don't do well going into a new gen on a wet fart and that has been Xbox's problem the whole time. This whole gen hurt them more than the reveal me thinks but we shall see.
 
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Garjon

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I think between Sony’s continued dominance and Nintendo’s awesome resurgence, things look grim indeed for Xbox.

I think we might even be looking at below WiiU numbers for next gen....
Come on LOL.

If Series S is a good price that alone will ensure Xbox does well next gen. Don't underestimate the selling power of something new and inexpensive
 

Unknown?

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Come on LOL.

If Series S is a good price that alone will ensure Xbox does well next gen. Don't underestimate the selling power of something new and inexpensive
In America perhaps. If you remember GameCube was first to $99 and that gave it a nice bump but eventually went back to not selling well. Dreamcast was also cheaper than PS2 and still got trounced. Price can only do so much if people find your competitors worth the added price.
 
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Garjon

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In America perhaps. If you remember GameCube was first to $99 and that gave it a nice bump but eventually went back to not selling well. Dreamcast was also cheaper than PS2 and still got trounced. Price can only do so much if people find your competitors worth the added price.
I'd like to think that the Xbox Series S is bringing a bit more than the Dreamcast or Gamecube. It'll have third party games for one thing (well, eventually anyway)
 

oldergamer

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Sorry, this is a fundamental lack of understanding of how major corporations function. Xbox does not have access to all of Microsoft’s money. Shareholders would never allow corporate funds to be consistently funnelled into one division.
First of all that is incorrect. Nobody said access to ALL of MS money in the bank. Lets be realistic. Any division has access to money in the company providing they can make a business case to have a return on investment. A stupid company would perhaps lock profit away and refuse to use it. If you recall they explained the purchase as a way to make a quicker return on investment then letting the money sit in the back and gather interest. Mojang has been a huge return on investment.
 
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oldergamer

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No, it's not AS true of Sony as it of MS. MS's products and services are much more overlapping than Sony's. For example, with MS, you've got all the Windows PC stuff and all the cloud infrastructure investments, all of which feed into Xbox, yet are accounted for separately. You don't have anything comparable at Sony. You've got Gakai, but that's small potatoes compared to MS's investments in this space. MS also does a lot of R&D that falls outside the Xbox division, yet which Xbox benefits from (i.e., does not have to account for those costs).

This is part of why you never see long, complex threads about whether Playstation is *actually* profitable, whereas you see that frequently with Xbox. The threads tend to be long and involved (if they are serious rather than just drive-by postings). I grant you that some of that relates to the tilt of the forum, but I've seen similar threads on Ree, and they all end up in the same place.

No one can really tell whether or how by how much Xbox is profitable. Even you, in your final point, are only able to point to revenue, which is miles away from an assessment of profit.
I don't think you understand how big corporations works. Sure windows has xbox related functionality, but that doesn't mean a license isn't paid out from the Xbox division to the OS division (to use an example). Xbox has Azure hardware, do you think the Azure team is giving that to them free? no chance. It comes at a cost that the gaming division would have to deal with. I can guarantee you that there isn't a single thing MS does anymore, that avoids different divisions factoring it into their cost/revenue. You're thinking about the older MS (Bill Gates Days). That is long gone, and the changed made internally have reflected in services offered and stock price.
 

mckmas8808

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Microsoft also knew this, that’s why they tried to go in another direction because they can’t compete in the console market.

Basically. Which is good for them and all gamers at the end of the day.
 
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oldergamer

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The least risky acquisition possible and already a huge success. That money could've been used for a lot of big AAA games for Xbox fans
It was money better spent than sitting on billions in the bank gaining interest. its going to continuously pay off for them. At some point you need to make a call. Do you sit on profit in the bank and collect interest, or spend some of it to find the next big item.
 

INC

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diffusionx

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I think, if anything, the PS5 will outsell the XSX by a wider margin than the PS4 did the XO. Of course the story might be different if Halo Infinite looked like a 10/10 game, but 343's gonna 343.

I do not think the XSX is a compelling product right now, at all.
 
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Humdinger

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I don't think you understand how big corporations works. Sure windows has xbox related functionality, but that doesn't mean a license isn't paid out from the Xbox division to the OS division (to use an example). Xbox has Azure hardware, do you think the Azure team is giving that to them free? no chance. It comes at a cost that the gaming division would have to deal with. I can guarantee you that there isn't a single thing MS does anymore, that avoids different divisions factoring it into their cost/revenue. You're thinking about the older MS (Bill Gates Days). That is long gone, and the changed made internally have reflected in services offered and stock price.

You're assuming more knowledge than you actually have. Only people with high-level administrative access to Xbox and MS budgets would know how these costs are distributed. Even if Xbox pays a reduced fee to use Windows or all the cloud infrastructure, that hardly means that development costs are equally shared.

You're the guy who cited revenue in a discussion about profit, so don't lecture me condescendingly about "how big corporations work."

As I said, these were long, involved discussions over months, with plenty of smart people. The conclusion was that there is no real way to know how MS distributes costs within the Xbox division, and therefore no way to know (from an upper management perspective) how profitable Xbox really is, in the overall scheme. MS keeps too many things secret, shuffles the pieces too often, and has too many overlapping services and divisions, where cost-sharing is simply an unknown. You are claiming to be able to cut through all that mystery with your superior knowledge of "how big corporations work" but I think you're FOS.
 

Tulipanzo

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I don't think you know what conservative means. PS4 sold 2:1 with Microsoft screwing up out of the gate, a higher price and hardly any AAA first party content.

Let's not pretend that PS5 sold simply on the name "Playstation" alone. PS5 won't have a price advantage and their launch lineup looks mediocre. This is why Sony is throwing money at exclusive characters and skins.
The launch line-up looks massively better than the PS4's. We're getting 4 sequels to multi-million sellers, 3 of which sold 10M previously, all within the first year.

While obviously price is unknown at the moment, nothing about MS's approach suggests they're willing to take a loss on hardware, and they can't just chuck the Kinect this time around.
While MS isn't just straight up telling costumers to go fuck themselves this time, they are coming off a far weaker gen against a much better prepared competitor, and with very mediocre marketing.

It could go either way, but I can easily see Sony doing better than 2:1.
 
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SaucyJack

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I'm comparing XSX to Xbox One, not the PS5. My post was explaining how it will sell better than Xbox One.

As it stands, there is every chance that the XSX/XSS combo sells worse than the XBO. And if they do go with this two console strategy the XSS is more likely to take sales from XSX rather than from PS5.

In the end of the day it comes down to the games.
 
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DavidGzz

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As it stands, there is every chance that the XSX/XSS combo sells worse than the XBO. And if they do go with this two console strategy the XSS is more likely to take sales from XSX rather than from PS5.

In the end of the day it comes down to the games.

We'll see who is right but I am just laughing my ass off at these takes.

Xbox One:

$500
Fewer exclusives
TV, TV, TV messaging
Kinect and focus on Kinect games
Bad faith because of the no used game messaging even if they reversed their decision, it pissed people off.
Weaker hardware on top of being the most expensive console

XSX+XSS:

XSX=Same price as PS5 most likely $500 with an advantage in 3rd party games in performance, graphics, or both.
XSS=possibly $250-300 or $150-200 cheaper than the competition
Game Pass
Full BC with Xbox One+all of the BC the Xbox One had for Original and 360 games
15 1st party studios releasing their games for "free" on Game Pass
Halo at launch. Gameplay>graphics especially for a free to play MP shooter.
No money being funneled into Kinect and Kinect games


Time will tell but I just don't see how they could sell less XSX+XSS than Xbox Ones in 7 years. The only way I can see it is if Xcloud takes off and causes would be Xbox buyers to just stick with Xcloud+Game Pass instead. I don't see that happening. Xcloud will be big eventually but it will take a while.
 

TBiddy

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Time will tell but I just don't see how they could sell less XSX+XSS than Xbox Ones in 7 years. The only way I can see it is if Xcloud takes off and causes would be Xbox buyers to just stick with Xcloud+Game Pass instead. I don't see that happening. Xcloud will be big eventually but it will take a while.

Agreed. The XB1 was a clusterfuck at launch, and yet they managed to sell about 50 million of them. Not bad.
 
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SaucyJack

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We'll see who is right but I am just laughing my ass off at these takes.

Xbox One:

$500
Fewer exclusives
TV, TV, TV messaging
Kinect and focus on Kinect games
Bad faith because of the no used game messaging even if they reversed their decision, it pissed people off.
Weaker hardware on top of being the most expensive console

XSX+XSS:

XSX=Same price as PS5 most likely $500 (guess) with a negligible advantage in 3rd party games in performance, graphics, or both.
XSS=possibly $250-300 or $150-200 cheaper (More guesswork) than the competition Competes with their own offering, but will it stop anyone buying a PlayStation?
Game Pass meh
Full BC with Xbox One+all of the BC the Xbox One had for Original and 360 games PS has BC too
15 1st party studios releasing their games for "free" on Game Pass But what games, and when?
Halo at launch. Gameplay>graphics especially for a free to play MP shooter. Available on current gen, is Craig going to shift consoles?
No money being funneled into Kinect and Kinect games so what? Do you think Kinect is the reason for woeful first party offering?


Time will tell but I just don't see how they could sell less XSX+XSS than Xbox Ones in 7 years. The only way I can see it is if Xcloud takes off and causes would be Xbox buyers to just stick with Xcloud+Game Pass instead. I don't see that happening. Xcloud will be big eventually but it will take a while.

Sorry but that’s adorably optimistic, but straw clutching nevertheless.

And you’re missing the most important factors.

PlayStation - 110+ million owners, invested in digital titles: Xbox, 40 something million

PlayStation - a ton of momentum, just released two of their hottest current gen titles, been hitting it out the park all generation long. Xbox - not so much.

Whilst it’s not exactly a zero sum game, if Xbox is going to make any headway then they need to persuade people to jump ship from PlayStation. Next gen is not a clean start, more than any other gen (because of increased digital ownership) the old gen counts. There’s very little to suggest that Sony have made any major missteps so far, Xbox needs a much more compelling answer.
 
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DavidGzz

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Sorry but that’s adorably optimistic, but straw clutching nevertheless.

And you’re missing the most important factors.

PlayStation - 110+ million owners, invested in digital titles: Xbox, 40 something million

PlayStation - a ton of momentum, just released two of their hottest current gen titles, been hitting it out the park all generation long. Xbox - not so much.

Whilst it’s not exactly a zero sum game, if Xbox is going to make any headway then they need to persuade people to jump ship from PlayStation. Next gen is not a clean start, more than any other gen (because of increased digital ownership) the old gen counts. There’s very little to suggest that Sony have made any major missteps so far, Xbox needs a much more compelling answer.


All of a sudden BC is the end all be all when it didn't matter until Sony started prioritizing it. LOL! Ok, man, you win. Xbox Series X and S will sell half as many as Xbox One. Sure! Have a nice generation.
 

SaucyJack

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Agreed. The XB1 was a clusterfuck at launch, and yet they managed to sell about 50 million of them. Not bad.

The entire generation was a cluster fuck.

Selling nearly half as many consoles as the generation before is not “not bad”. Especially when launch window sales weren’t really that bad at all. The gap got wider and wider as the generation progressed. They’re 10-15 million units behind a console that released 3 years ago.

Xbox spent the majority of the generation tinkering with hardware instead of bringing games. This is the root of all of their problems. It’s not yet fixed. We still have promises of jam tomorrow.
 
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SaucyJack

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All of a sudden BC is the end all be all when it didn't matter until Sony started prioritizing it. LOL! Ok, man, you win. Xbox Series X and S will sell half as many as Xbox One. Sure! Have a nice generation.

I never said that.

There is every possibility that Series X/S sells less than XBO seeing as how XBO has slowed as the generation progressed. Momentum is important.

Half as much is ridiculous. Failing to break 50 million on the other hand? Highly plausible.
 

Spukc

Member
Jan 24, 2015
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whatever that other plastic box is more powerful then this plastic box
 

martino

Member
Apr 25, 2013
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France
In America perhaps. If you remember GameCube was first to $99 and that gave it a nice bump but eventually went back to not selling well. Dreamcast was also cheaper than PS2 and still got trounced. Price can only do so much if people find your competitors worth the added price.
but unlike them series s will get at least 95% of games
 
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