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PS4/Switch 3rd Party Physical Sales Japan LTD

noshten

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3rd Party Top 30 PS4
  1. Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) - 2.564.928
  2. Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.368.698
  3. Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 1.042.951
  4. Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 932.821
  5. Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 861.226
  6. Grand Theft Auto V (Take Two) - 708.610
  7. Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 557.153
  8. NieR: Automata (Square Enix) - 467.485
  9. Metal Gear Solid V (Konami) - 448.554
  10. Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) - 418.236
  11. Dark Souls III (From Software) - 413.021
  12. Persona 5 (Atlus) - 405.455
  13. Yakuza 6 (Sega) - 367.965
  14. Resident Evil 7: biohazard (Capcom) - 365.896
  15. Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) - 348.882
  16. Dragon Quest Heroes (Square Enix) - 329.934
  17. Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 (Square Enix) - 293.248
  18. Judgement (Sega) - 284.001
  19. Dragon Quest Heroes II (Square Enix) - 280.542
  20. Battlefield 1 (EA) - 275.924
  21. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice (From Software) - 267.666
  22. Pro Baseball Spirits 2019 (Konami) - 259.227
  23. Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676
  24. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 (Konami) - 255.850
  25. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 250.316
  26. Earth Defense Force 5 (D3 Publisher) - 244.159
  27. Persona 5: Royal (Atlus) - 244.050
  28. Yakuza 7 (Sega) - 243.769
  29. Red Dead Redemption II (Take Two) - 227.842
  30. Fallout 4 (Bethesda) - 227.749
TOTAL: 15.214.834

TOP 5 Publishers
  1. Square Enix - 5.827.221
  2. Capcom - 4.164.889
  3. Konami - 963.631
  4. Take-Two - 936.452
  5. Sega - 895.735
  • At the end of the PS4's life(not expecting any new 3rd Party game to make the Top 30), the Top 30 has sold over 15M units
  • Square makes up over 1/3 of 3rd Party game sales on the PS4 Top 30
  • Capcom makes up over 1/4 of 3rd Party game sales on the PS4 Top 30, with around 3/4 of their sales coming from Monster Hunter World and Iceborne
  • Konami & Take-Two are the only other pubs close to 1M sales on the system within the Top 30, with Take-Two having the better chance to get there thanks to GTA's longevity
  • Bandai Namco hasn't had a hit on the PS4 and narrowly misses out on this list with their top-selling game Tales of Berseria selling 220K units

3rd Party Top 30 Switch
  1. Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) - 1.518.168
  2. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 545.836
  3. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 517.632
  4. Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 495.011
  5. Yo-kai Watch 4* (Level 5) - 358.356
  6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 333.678
  7. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 309.596
  8. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 295.237
  9. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 231.311
  10. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
  11. Super Bomberman R3* (Konami) - 215.218
  12. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  13. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
  14. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  15. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 149.562
  16. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  17. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  18. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 129.142
  19. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  20. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
  21. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
  22. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
  23. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  24. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
  25. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 92.697
  26. FIFA 19 (EA) - 89.875
  27. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) - 87.370
  28. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957
  29. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 83.433
  30. Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) - 80.842
TOTAL: 7.592.137

Top 5 Publishers
  1. Bandai Namco - 2.003.566
  2. Microsoft - 1.518.168
  3. Square Enix - 1.135.304
  4. Konami - 672.143
  5. Sega - 504.481
  • The Switch has had a lack of high profile 3rd Party support
  • The best selling 3rd Party game is Minecraft, which will probably end up with over 2.5M physical sales on the system
  • Top selling 3rd Party publisher is Bandai, mainly due to its evergreen AA family games - Taiko and Fishing Spirits
  • Square Enix so far has provided lackluster support to the system outside of Dragon Quest IP
  • Konami is going to become the 4th publisher to surpass 1M sales on the system by the end of the year
  • Capcom's top-selling game on the system is a late port of Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate

Fall expectations:
  • No 3rd Party game will surpass 200K sales on the PS4/PS5 unless we combine the SKUs
  • Switch's 3rd Party line-up this fall is stronger than the combined 3rd Party lineup of 2017/2018/2019, so for once 3rd Parties might actually capitalize on holidays
  • Konami's Momotaro & Koei's Age of Calamity will be the 5th & 6th games to surpass 500K on the Switch by the end of the year
  • Momotaro is the first Japanese 3rd Party game with the potential to sell over 1 million physical copies on the system(the question is can it do it before MHR launches)
  • Atelier 2(Koei), Derby Stallion(Game Addict), Family Trainer & Taiko(Bandai Namco), Fitness Boxing 2(Imagineer), SMT III(Atlus), Puyo Puyo 2(Sega) all have the potential to enter the Switch Top 30
  • Bravely Default 2 is still dated for 2020 and might be the one opportunity Square Enix has to capitalize on the fall
Prediction for Switch Top 30 by the end of the year:

Bandai Namco >2.5M
Microsoft >1.7M
Square >1.5M*
Konami >1.25M
Koei Tecmo & Sega >650K
TOTAL >10M
*if Bravely Default 2 launches before Week 50
 
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noshten

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I would never have expected Microsoft to be the second-biggest 3rd Party Switch contributor :messenger_dizzy:

Well its not like the Japanese 3rd Party have been throwing their weight behind the system, Monster Hunter Rise & Stories 2 basically guarantees Capcom takes 1st place by the end of 2021 by a considerable margin, despite doing jack-all for over three years on the system.
The biggest failure in terms of transitioning to the Switch remains Level-5, who basically went from selling millions on the 3DS to becoming irrelevant on the Switch. Gotta congratulate them on making everyone else's business decisions seem decent in comparison.

Are they not counting Atlus as Sega sales?

Atlus self-publish in Japan.
 
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noshten

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3rd Party Top 30 3DS
  1. Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) - 3.591.334
  2. Yo-kai Watch 2 (Level 5) - 3.169.858
  3. Monster Hunter Generations (Capcom) - 2.832.833
  4. Yo-kai Watch 2: Psychic Specters (Level 5) - 2.632.550
  5. Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate (Capcom) - 2.617.803
  6. Yo-Kai Watch Busters (Level 5) - 2.167.915
  7. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom) - 1.941.106
  8. Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.772.911
  9. Monster Hunter XX (Capcom) - 1.718.052
  10. Yo-Kai Watch 3 (Level 5) - 1.495.891
  11. Puzzle & Dragons Z (GungHo) - 1.470.222
  12. Yo-Kai Watch (Level 5) - 1.294.133
  13. Dragon Quest VII (Square Enix) - 1.238.660
  14. Monster Strike (Mixi) - 968.543
  15. Dragon Quest Monsters (Square Enix) - 921.310
  16. Dragon Quest VIII (Square Enix) - 864.865
  17. Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 (Square Enix) - 811.251
  18. Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki (Level 5) - 760.373
  19. Dragon Quest Monsters 2 (Square Enix) - 751.587
  20. Run For Money Tousouchuu (Bandai Namco) - 604.430
  21. Taiko no Tatsujin (Bandai Namco) - 590.132
  22. Yo-Kai Sangokushi (Level 5) - 563.395
  23. Disney Magic World (Bandai Namco) - 532.218
  24. Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 (Level 5) - 520.682
  25. Inazuma Eleven Go: Light / Shadow (Level 5) - 455.172
  26. Inazuma Eleven Go: Chrono Stones (Level 5) - 444.100
  27. Attack on Titan: Humanity in Chains (Spike Chunsoft) - 401.513
  28. Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask (Level 5) - 396.914
  29. Bravely Default (Square Enix) - 382.958
  30. Fantasy Life (Level 5) - 379.211
TOTAL: 38.291.922


Top 5 Publishers
  1. Level 5 - 14.280.194
  2. Capcom - 12.701.128
  3. Square Enix - 6.743.542
  4. Bandai Namco - 1.726.780
  5. GungHo - 1.470.222

-

The less said about Level 5's strategy in the past decade the better, taking the audience for granted,, while trying to chase PS4 and mobile hits. It seems all titles they are currently working on are facing major issues, so they've been doing 70% off sales of their games on the eShop in the past year. Overall they are in a very terrible condition and I'm honestly worried for their future.

Even with the release of Monster Hunter Rise and Stories 2, Capcom will need at least three big titles on the Switch in the upcoming years not to see a big decline in sales in Japan going from the 3Ds to the Switch. They have apparently been trying to find a way to port Resident Evil to the system unsuccessfully, but maybe the rumored hardware revision might allow them to do so. Expecting that the expansion of the MHR will be one of their other major titles on the system.

Square should eventually see growth from the 3DS to the Switch with the release of Bravely Default 2 and Dragon Quest XII, still, it's disappointing to see the number of games they were able to release in the past, compared to their current output. I'm guessing that we will see a lot more Ports and Remakes from them in the upcoming years because outside of DQXII it doesn't seem many other of their major franchises are coming to the device any time soon Final Fantasy/Kingdom Hearts

GungHo
so far released Ninjala but since its a F2P we don't know what type of player base it has on the Switch and whether it's profitable for them.

+

Bandai
will see big growth from transitioning from the 3DS to the Switch. Although it's mostly down to the studios responsible for family games, a lot of their bigger efforts end up being ported late to the Switch, some still haven't been ported. Expecting fewer games to launch later on the Switch starting next year. Expecting them to end with over 5 million sales on the Switch in it's lifetime.

In terms of the companies which will see major growth by the end of the Switch lifecycle, it would be Microsoft. Minecraft alone probably has surpassed 3M if we combine physical and digital. Those types of sales would have made Microsoft a Top 5 Publisher on the 3DS. The game isn't losing popularity either, its very likely that the game will end up over 5 million physical + digital on the Switch in Japan.
Konami & Koei Tecmo are poised for growth as only Nioh, PES, and MGS being their major franchises unannounced on the Switch.

When looking at 3rd Party support in Japan we sometimes underestimate how much growth smaller pubs/studios are seeing. Marvelous & Nippon are both seeing good growth, Rune Factory 5 will have no issues becoming the top-selling Marvelous game in Japan all time until a new Harvest Moon launches. Nippon doesn't have many huge franchises so most of the growth won't ever be reflected in the physical top 30 charts. Their top-selling game of all time Disgaea: Hour of Darkness is barely above 150K sales on the PS2, so Disgaea 6 has a decent chance of outselling this next year. A lot of other smaller publishers have transitioned to the Switch in Japan with Falcom being the one that pretty much an outlier.

Another factor is Wester games, 3DS barely had any and its eShop didn't have many digital-only evergreen indies - the opposite is true for the Switch. 3DS basically had 1/100 of the indie/Western support Switch has gotten in Japan. No Breaks Games and their Publisher Teyon have a huge hit in Human Fall Flat, the game will probably do over 2 million lifetimes in Japan. The game was created by one Lithuanian and now his studio has over 20 employees and 5 million sales worldwide across all platforms. Small games are getting localized and featured in the local Nintendo directs and social media. Smaller companies are seeing most of the growth on the eShop. They have actually filled the void big Japanese publishers left during the first three years of the Switch. The 3DS ended up with over 24 million hardware sales which the Switch should surpass by the end of 2022, so there is no reason to believe that indies that end up being pushed by Nintendo in Japan are doing very well for the creators and Nintendo. With around 90% of the hardware market and 80% of the software market in Japan for Nintendo in upcoming years, they are n such a dominant position they haven't enjoyed since the 90s. No doubt the next Overcooked will target the Switch, to me it's surprising that the creators of Steam World Dig actually have an Xbox exclusive but I guess Microsoft offered very good conditions.
It will be interesting if indies prefer to stick with the Switch as the competition launches their new consoles, kinda expecting indies to remain on targeting the Switch, unless Sony, Google, Apple or Microsoft approaches them.
 
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noshten

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Update #1:
  • Bravely Default & Rune Factory 5 missed 2020
  • Konami surpasses 1 million physical sales
  • Koei finally has a game in the Top 30
  • Marvelous had an unexpected holiday hit that won't get re-stocked until mid-December on the Switch
  • Atelier 2, Derby Stallion, Fitness Boxing 2, Rhythmic Adventure Pack are the most notable 3rd Party releases for the rest of the year
  • Doesn't seem that any 3rd Party PS5 or PS4 game will clear 200K this fall(COD:Cold War's combined sales might get there)

3rd Party Top 30 Switch
  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.568.365
  2. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 545.836
  3. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 522.289
  4. Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 508.626
  5. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  6. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 345.697 (NEW)
  7. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 333.678
  8. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 309.596
  9. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 295.237
  10. eBaseball 2020 (Konami) - 236.075
  11. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 225.614
  12. Super Bomberman R3* (Konami) - 215.218
  13. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  14. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
  15. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  16. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 173.215 (NEW)
  17. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 149.562
  18. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  19. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  20. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 129.142
  21. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  22. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
  23. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
  24. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
  25. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  26. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
  27. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 92.697
  28. FIFA 19 (EA) - 89.875
  29. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020: The Official Video Game (Sega) - 87.370
  30. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957
TOTAL: 7.826.227

Top Switch 3rd Parties:
  1. Bandai Namco - 1.940.996
  2. Microsoft - 1.568.365
  3. Square Enix - 1.135.304
  4. Konami - 1.022.604
  5. Level 5 - 468.311
  6. Sega - 421.048
  7. Capcom - 309.596
  8. Ubisoft - 213.453
  9. EA - 212.873
  10. Koei Tecmo - 173.215
  • Notably Konami cleared 1 million physical sales on the Switch after Momotaro's launch. It's already the 6th best selling 3rd Party game on the Switch and will finish 2020 in 2nd position behind Minecraft. It's also the biggest launch for them in the last decade beating out MGSV. Due to holidays eBaseball 2020 & Momotaro will bring Konami's total to over 1.6M units. Interestingly they've achieved this success with only 4 game launches on the system

  • Since Sakuna of Rice and Ruin launched a few weeks ago, we've seen movement from 3rd Parties on the Switch. Sakuna has been rocking the eShop top 3 since launching but unfortunately for Marvelous a substantial physical re-stock for the game will only arrive around mid-December. Still the game is already a big success and will likely be their first million selling title of 2020 across all platforms and regions. Marvelous also has very notable games launching next year with Pioneers of Olive Town and Rune Factory 5 which should set franchise records both in Japan and the World. It's very likely that Marvelous will clear 1 million physical sales on the Switch by mid-2021 which will allow it to surpass it's lifetime software sales on the 3DS.

  • Koei Tecmo also finally has a Top 30 game with Age of Calamity, next week the game will become their best selling game since the PS3 days and has a good chance to become their best selling game in the last decade. There is also Atelier 2 launching soon and provided they have printed enough copies for the launch, it should have no problem becoming the biggest launch for the franchise in Japan with over >100K sales. Overall Koei has a decent chance to clear half a million this year and have BOND and Dynasty Warriors 9 Empires lined up for 2021.

  • Bandai's Fishing Spirits and Taiko continue to sell a few thousand units per week, and with the launch of Rhythmic Adventure Pack & Family Trainer should have no problems becoming the first 3rd Party publisher to clear 2.5 million units on the Switch. Overall their strategy of late ports and making certain games PS4 exclusives have slowed their progress but the sheer number of titles they launch each year ensures they are in a very good position. So far the only game they have announced for the Switch for 2021 is Digimon Survive.

  • Square was unfortunate to miss Bravely Default 2's 2020 launch window, so they've not really had too much success this year. DQXIS will have no problems surpassing 600K by the end of the year and they've been announcing a lot of AA games for 2021 on the Switch, outside of Bravely 2 they also have Saga Frontier Remastered, Balan Wonderworld and NEO:TWEWY, potentially by mid-2021 they will be able to clear 2 million units on the Switch. They should also be in the process of announcing either DQXII, DQH3, DQB3 or a new DQ Monsters game for 2021, as their most recent DQ game was developed and launched some time ago.

  • The Top 3rd Party publisher by the end of March 2021 will become Capcom, Monster Hunter Rise's launch will be the biggest 3rd Party launch on the Switch, and the game will likely launch above 2 million. There is a very decent chance that by the end of 2021 it becomes their top selling game since Monster Hunter Freedom 3 on the PSP. They've also revealed Monster Hunter Stories 2 so their fortunes on the Switch will change considerably.

  • In terms of the rest of the publishers, releasing games this year we have Derby Stallion which could very well launch with over >100K, GameAddict's game has been rocking the Top 20 on Amazon for a while and Nintendo has been pushing it relentlessly on their YouTube channel. Imagineer is also set to make gains as Fitness Boxing 2 is looking like another game that will have no problem seeing gains compared to the debut. Sega's Puyo Puyo 2 is the final notable game for 2020, although I expect it to debut below Derby Stallion and Fitness Boxing 2.

  • Finally Human Fall Flat will be the first Western Indie game to clear 100K physical, the game released physically earlier in the year after spending years in the Top 15 of the eShop chart. It's price and popularity ensure it should have a very good holiday period, and double it's physical lifetime sales in the coming weeks. Currently the game stands at 51K physical sales and is probably the 2nd best selling 3rd Party game on the eShop behind Minecraft.

Overall since Sakuna's launch we are entering a period of time where 3rd Party support on the Switch has finally arrived, I won't be surprised if the first half of 2021 is up considerably in terms of Software sales YoY despite New Horizon breaking records last year.
By the end of March 2021 Switch will have as many 3rd Party million sellers as the PS4 achieved during it's lifetime, while the Top 30 games will surpass the lifetime sales of the PS4 Top 30.
 
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Tschumi

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Lots of my friends here think their economy is in the tank.. i tell them that have a colossal middle class with huge spending power.. 450,000-odd copies of mgs5 in late 2020... Gotta pay that~
 
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Kerotan

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With digital the ps4 will likely finish with 7 million sellers. Pretty impressive after the ps3.
 

Woopah

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Very nice summary! We've been saying third parties will transition to Switch for some time and it looks like it's finally happening.

I'm not 100 per cent sure but I believe Bond will be published by Nintendo in Japan so it won't count as a third party release.
 
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noshten

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Very nice summary! We've been saying third parties will transition to Switch for some time and it looks like it's finally happening.

I'm not 100 per cent sure but I believe Bond will be published by Nintendo in Japan so it won't count as a third party release.

I had no idea about BOND is something Nintendo was paying for but you seem correct as it also appears to be part of their voucher program.


3rd Party Top 30 PSV(with Minecraft)
  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.095.680
  2. God Eater 2 (Bandai Namco) - 397.994
  3. God Eater 2: Rage Burst (Bandai Namco) - 342.983
  4. Persona 4: Golden (Atlus) - 324.357
  5. Dragon Quest Builders (Square Enix) - 292.125
  6. Final Fantasy X HD Remaster ( Square Enix) - 281.475
  7. Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (Bandai Namco) - 255.008
  8. Final Fantasy X-2 HD Remaster (Square Enix) - 249.446
  9. Toukiden: The Age of Demons (Koei Tecmo) - 237.361
  10. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f (Sega) - 227.492
  11. Dragon Quest Heroes II (Square Enix) - 218.586
  12. Sword Art Online: Lost Song (Bandai Namco) - 192.047
  13. Kan Colle Kai (Marvelous) - 190.568
  14. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2016 (Konami) - 183.022
  15. 3rd Super Robot Wars Z (Bandai Namco) - 166.095
  16. God Eater: Resurrection (Bandai Namco) - 164.361
  17. Phantasy Star Nova (Sega) - 161.154
  18. Toukiden: Kiwami (Koei Tecmo) - 161.059
  19. Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus (Marvelous) - 158.270
  20. Mobile Suit Gundam Extreme Vs-Force (Bandai Namco) - 153.205
  21. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd (Sega) - 152.290
  22. J-Stars Victory Vs (Bandai Namco) - 152.210
  23. Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization (Bandai Namco) - 138.720
  24. 3rd Super Robot Wars Z (Bandai Namco) - 130.600
  25. Danganronpa 1 + 2 Reload (Spike Chunsoft) - 129.810
  26. The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel (Nihon Falcom) - 126.371
  27. Tokyo Xanadu (Nihon Falcom) - 123.778
  28. The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II (Nihon Falcom) - 122.743
  29. Gundam Breaker 3 (Bandai Namco) - 122.181
  30. Gundam Breaker 2 (Bandai Namco) - 121.971
TOTAL: 6.772.962

Top 5 Publishers
  1. Bandai Namco - 2.337.375
  2. Microsoft - 1.095.680
  3. Square Enix - 1.041.632
  4. Sega - 540.936
  5. Koei Tecmo - 398.420
PlayStation Ecosystem since PS4 Launch Famtisu Top 100:
  1. PS4/PSV/PS3 2016 - 11.932.290
  2. PS4/PSV/PS3 2014 - 11.199.346
  3. PS4/PSV/PS3 2015 - 10.382.176
  4. PS4/PSV 2017 - 9.462.066
  5. PS4/PSV 2018 - 9.228.298
  6. PS4 2019 - 7.181.200
  7. PS4/PS5 2020 - ?
numbers via gamedatalibrary
 
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Woopah

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I had no idea about BOND is something Nintendo was paying for but you seem correct as it also appears to be part of their voucher program.
Nintendo and KT seem to have a very strong relationship right now. I just hope the game gets localised as I like Nintendo supporting new IP.
 
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noshten

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Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2017 Top 20 LTD*
  1. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 309.596
  2. Bomberman R (Konami) - 215.218
  3. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  4. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  5. Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (Nippon Columbia) - 84.957
  6. Puyo Puyo Tetris S (Sega) - 83.433
  7. Fire Emblem Warriors (Koei Tecmo) - 64.747
  8. Dragon Quest Heroes I & II (Square Enix) - 64.404
  9. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco) - 45.029
  10. Seiken Densetsu Collection (Square Enix) - 41.128
  11. Dragon Quest X (Square Enix) - 34.893
  12. Ultra Street Fighter II (Capcom) - 24.897
  13. Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star (Marvelous) - 12.019
  14. Resident Evil: Revelations (Capcom) - 8.639
  15. LEGO City Undercover (Warner Entertainment) - 8.312
  16. Spelunker Party! (Square Enix) - 8.028
  17. Lost Sphear (Square Enix) - 6.562
  18. One Piece: Unlimited World Red (Bandai Namco) - 5.916
  19. Nobunaga's Ambition: Taishi (Koei Tecmo) - 5.786
  20. Disgaea 5 (Nippon Ichi) - 5.065
TOTAL: 1.332.717

Top 10 Publishers:
  1. Capcom - 343.132
  2. Bandai Namco - 232.035
  3. Konami - 215.218
  4. Square Enix - 155.015
  5. EA - 122.998
  6. Nippon Columbia - 84.957
  7. Sega - 83.433
  8. Koei Tecmo - 70.533
  9. Marvelous - 12.019
  10. Warner Entertainment - 8.312

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2018 Top 20
  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 525.045
  2. Taiko no Tatsujin (Bandai Namco) - 270.415
  3. Octopath Traveler (Squre Enix) - 193.780
  4. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Squre Enix) - 165.418
  5. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
  6. The Snack World (Level 5) - 109.955
  7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 90.251
  8. Attack on Titan 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 80.471
  9. Dragon Quest Builders (Squre Enix) - 74.772
  10. FIFA 18 (EA) - 65.695
  11. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 64.999
  12. FIFA 19 (EA) - 59.381
  13. Hyrule Warriors (Koei Tecmo) - 54.021
  14. My Hero Academia (Bandai Namco) - 52.350
  15. Sumikko Gurashi (Nippon Columbia) - 51.037
  16. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 49.834
  17. Warriors Orochi 4 (Koei Tecmo) - 47.608
  18. Skyrim (Bethesda) - 44.996
  19. Beyblade Burst: Battle Zero (FuRyu) - 34.380
  20. Billion Road (Bandai Namco) - 34.312
TOTAL: 2.179.674

Top 10 Publishers:
  1. Bandai Namco - 623.281
  2. Microsoft - 525.045
  3. Square Enix - 433.970
  4. Koei Tecmo - 128.079
  5. EA - 125.076
  6. Level 5 - 109.955
  7. Nippon Columbia - 51.037
  8. Capcom - 49.834
  9. Bethesda - 44.996
  10. FuRyu - 34.380

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2019 Top 20

  1. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 620.903
  2. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 463.699
  3. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 336.995
  4. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 291.878
  5. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 210.259
  6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 195.128
  7. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 150.167
  8. Super Dragon Ball Heroes (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  9. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 125.498
  10. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 124.837
  11. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 118.082
  12. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
  13. Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 81.491
  14. Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) - 67.801
  15. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.414
  16. Rune Factory 4 Special (Marvelous) - 62.412
  17. SD Gundam G Generation (Bandai Namco) - 60.173
  18. Super Robot Wars T (Bandai Namco) - 53.810
  19. Super Bomberman R (Konami) - 53.720
  20. Final Fantasy X/X-2 (Square Enix) - 52.670
TOTAL: 3.389.761

Top 8 Publishers:
  1. Bandai Namco - 1.052.268
  2. Square Enix - 641.206
  3. Microsoft - 620.903
  4. Level 5 - 291.878
  5. Konami - 263.979
  6. Sega - 276.619
  7. Marvelous - 180.494
  8. Imagineer - 62.414

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2020 Top 20
  1. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 588.310
  2. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 447.931
  3. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 248.024
  4. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 237.158
  5. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 171.631
  6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550
  7. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
  8. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 101.707
  9. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
  10. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 94.792
  11. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega) - 78.558
  12. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 74.244
  13. Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 65.653
  14. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 62.949
  15. Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne (Atlus) - 59.549
  16. Fortnite: The Last Laugh Bundle (Warner Entertainment Japan) - 57.362
  17. Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Remastered Edition (Square Enix) - 56.187
  18. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 51.872
  19. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 49.044
  20. Minecraft Dungeons: Hero Edition (Microsoft) - 41.437
TOTAL: 2.830.708

Top 10 Publishers:
  1. Konami - 836.334
  2. Microsoft - 489.368
  3. Bandai Namco - 391.292
  4. Square Enix - 251.410
  5. Koei Tecmo - 237.158
  6. Sega - 217.108
  7. Atlus - 125.202
  8. Game Addict - 74.244
  9. Imagineer - 62.949
  10. Warner Entertainment Japan - 57.362
  • Momotaro will end up around 1 million sold for 2020
  • Minecraft will be flat YoY >600K
  • Age of Calamity will become Koei's Top Selling Game on the Switch with >350K
  • eBaseball will probably be the only other game with over 300K sales
  • Mario & Sonic and Fishing Spirits are the only other titles likely to finish with over 200K sales
  • DQXI S, Taiko no Tatsujin & One Piece: Warriors 4 are the games likely to finish with around 150K sales
  • Fortnite, Sakuna, DerbyStallion, Fitness Boxing, Human: Fall Flat & Hatsune Miku are likely to finish with over 100K sales
Overall the final result for the year for third parties will be around 4 million mark within the Top 20, which will be a 18% increase YoY.

The biggest winner this year will be Konami who will end up with around 1.3 million physical software sold on the system. Momotaro is likely to end up above 2 million shipped + digital by the end of 2021, making it their best selling game in Japan of all time.

Bandai Namco will see the biggest YoY decline, as their output this year on the Switch has been lacking a new family evergreen after the success they found with Fishing Spirits and Taiko.

Square's output on the Switch this year was anemic and the results show it.


Next year Monster Hunter Rise alone will outsell the 2020 Top 20 3rd Party Games,
While the following games have potential to sell above 300K in 2021:
Minecraft, Momotaro, Sakuna, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2, SMT V, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Human: Fall Flat,
 
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Surprised at how poorly DQ11S has sold in what is almost certainly its strongest market. Maybe people aren't willing to pay full price for what amounts to DLC anymore
 

yazenov

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PS4 carrying 3rd party sales both in Japan and worldwide. If you add digital to the calculation, Sony consoles are a goldmine for 3rd party.
 
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Woopah

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Surprised at how poorly DQ11S has sold in what is almost certainly its strongest market. Maybe people aren't willing to pay full price for what amounts to DLC anymore
Which version of DQ11S are you referring to? The original Switch release did really well but the one that came out last week didn't.

Then again that's not too surprising when it's a late port of a late port.
 
Dec 2, 2018
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Which version of DQ11S are you referring to? The original Switch release did really well but the one that came out last week didn't.

Then again that's not too surprising when it's a late port of a late port.

Switch version only sold 545k, compared to 1.4 million for the base version on PS4.
 

Woopah

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Switch version only sold 545k, compared to 1.4 million for the base version on PS4.
I thought that was pretty good. Not many games sell over 500,000 units in Japan these days and this was an enhanced version that came out more than 2 years the original. It was never going to get close to the PS4 version.
 

noshten

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PS4 carrying 3rd party sales both in Japan and worldwide. If you add digital to the calculation, Sony consoles are a goldmine for 3rd party.

Actually in Japan Switch probably has more digital sales for third parties, in any-case neither device has more than 30% digital. Even the best selling game on the PS4 - Monster Hunter World had only slightly above 30%, while games like FF/DQXI are JRPG, so they don't have high digital sales. 2nd hand market is still very relevant there and JRPGs rarely have evergreen status.

Switch version only sold 545k, compared to 1.4 million for the base version on PS4.

The game launched on 3DS a few years earlier, DQXII will do much better on the Switch when it eventually launches.

1) DQXI 3DS - 1772K
2) DQXI PS4 - 1368K
3) DQXI S Switch - 558K
4) DQXI S PS4 - 28K
 
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noshten

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3rd Party Top 30 Switch
  1. Minecraft (Microsoft Game Studios) - 1.740.451
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.423.450
  3. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 587.899
  4. Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 555.358
  5. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 554.560
  6. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 370.235
  7. Yo-kai Watch 4* (Level 5) - 358.356
  8. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 319.806
  9. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 309.596
  10. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 295.237
  11. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 231.311
  12. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 248.024
  13. Super Bomberman R3* (Konami) - 215.218
  14. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  15. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
  16. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  17. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 149.562
  18. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 146.363
  19. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  20. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 129.142
  21. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  22. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 117.995
  23. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954
  24. Doraemon: Story of Seasons (Bandai Namco) - 112.104
  25. Pro Baseball Famista Evolution (Bandai Namco) - 110.954
  26. The Snack World: TreJarers Gold (Level 5) - 109.955
  27. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 100.663
  28. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451
  29. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 97.714
  30. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Bandai Namco) - 92.697
TOTAL: 9.452.096

Since making this thread in October, Switch 3rd Parties have gained around 2 million of sales mainly thanks to Momotaro with the launch of Monster Hunter Rise, Olive Town & Bravely Default 2, Switch's Top 30 list should catch-up to the PS4 by April 2021 and I think surpass 20 million sales by the end of the year due to continued sales of Monster Hunter Rise, Momotaro & Minecraft as well as new launches like Rune Factory 5, Stories 2 & SMTV.
Human Fall Flat
is the first Western Indie to reach 100K and should do so next week, the game had sold 600K digitally across all platforms in Japan as of April 2020.

Top Publishers:
  1. Konami - 2.118.003
  2. Bandai Namco - 2.019.999
  3. Microsoft - 1.740.451
  4. Square Enix - 1.177.367
  5. Level 5 - 468.311
  6. Sega - 370.235
  7. Koei Tecmo - 319.806
  8. Capcom - 309.596
  9. Marvelous - 247.026
  10. Ubisoft - 213.453
Konami has had a hell of an year leading to them becoming the Top 3rd Party publisher on the Switch when looking at the Top 30, overall the Top Publisher remains Bandai Namco - since they have a lot more titles launch on the Switch but they also pretty much failed to launch anything noteworthy this year on the platform.
Marvelous also had an unexpected hit with Sakuna, but they are still having difficulties supplying more than 15K copies per week - it will be interesting how the game performs next year could very well continue to climb up the rankings.
 
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noshten

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Potentially the last update for the PS4 Top 30, as I'm not sure if Resident Evil: Village will manage more than 227K sales on the system, currently pre-orders aren't exactly setting the World on fire, so the game needs great WoM to outperform expectations in the current climate of the PS4 being phased out. The other major PS4 releases are Nier & the Demon Slayer game, even if a certain game manages to make the Top 30, its unlikely to make a huge impact to the end result, as it will just knock out Bethesda's only game out of the rankings and is unlikely to surpass 500K

3rd Party Top 30 PS4
  1. Monster Hunter: World (Capcom) - 2.575.764
  2. Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 1.368.698
  3. Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 1.042.951
  4. Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 949.379
  5. Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 861.226
  6. Grand Theft Auto V (Take Two) - 729.174
  7. Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Capcom) - 567.989
  8. NieR: Automata (Square Enix) - 504.605
  9. Metal Gear Solid V (Konami) - 448.554
  10. Resident Evil 2 (Capcom) - 418.236
  11. Dark Souls III (From Software) - 413.021
  12. Persona 5 (Atlus) - 405.455
  13. Yakuza 6 (Sega) - 367.965
  14. Resident Evil 7: biohazard (Capcom) - 365.896
  15. Rainbow Six: Siege (Ubisoft) - 348.882
  16. Dragon Quest Heroes (Square Enix) - 329.934
  17. Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 (Square Enix) - 293.248
  18. Judgement (Sega) - 284.001
  19. Dragon Quest Heroes II (Square Enix) - 280.542
  20. Battlefield 1 (EA) - 275.924
  21. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice (From Software) - 273.492
  22. Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 269.187
  23. Yakuza 7 (Sega) - 263.255
  24. Pro Baseball Spirits 2019 (Konami) - 259.227
  25. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2018 (Konami) - 255.850
  26. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 250.316
  27. Earth Defense Force 5 (D3 Publisher) - 244.159
  28. Persona 5: Royal (Atlus) - 244.050
  29. Red Dead Redemption II (Take Two) - 227.842
  30. Fallout 4 (Bethesda) - 227.749
TOTAL: 15.346.571

Top 10 Publishers:
  1. Square Enix - 5.880.899
  2. Capcom - 4.197.072
  3. Konami - 963.631
  4. Take Two - 957.016
  5. Sega - 915.221
  6. From Software - 686.513
  7. Atlus - 649.505
  8. Ubisoft - 348.882
  9. EA - 275.924
  10. D3 Publisher - 244.159
Square & Capcom made up around 2/3 of the sales in the Top 30, while the absence of Bandai Namco is emblematic of their incapability to find success on the PlayStation ecosystem on their home turf. Konami has transitioned into AA development and are also contracting out their IPs to other studios, I anticipate that if they launch any exclusives on the PS4/PS5 in the future there would be a nice check for them from Sony. Sega, From Software and D3 Publisher will have a difficult time in Japan with their future games, D3 are seemingly transitioning to a multiplat Switch strategy but in Sega and From Software that transition doesn't seem likely.

The AAA Western pubs will be the hardest hit, Activision Blizzard had Sony publish COD in Japan and Black Ops - Cold War is just experiencing the worst result since 2014 for the Franchise:
  1. Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 (2018) - 511.722
  2. Call of Duty: Black Ops III (2015) - 403.054
  3. Call of Duty: WWII (2017) - 387.498
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (2019) - 255.782
  5. Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare (2016) - 215.127
  6. Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (2020) - 167.418
  7. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (2014) - 102.668
The decline of PlayStation in Japan and the knock on effect that's having on the rest of Asia, will make it difficult for EA, Take Two & Ubisoft.
It will be interesting if Konami uses this opportunity to launch a fully fleshed out Pro Evolution Soccer on the Switch, while EA continues with the Legacy editions.
 
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noshten

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Rise update

3rd Party Top 30 Switch

  1. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 2.101.505
  2. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 1.892.400
  3. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.774.063
  4. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 647.183
  5. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 585.212
  6. Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 578.474
  7. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate* (Capcom) - 379.611
  8. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 376.481
  9. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  10. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 358.327
  11. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 295.797
  12. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 295.237
  13. Super Bomberman R3 (Konami) - 275.029
  14. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) - 269.842
  15. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 248.024
  16. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  17. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
  18. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 185.990
  19. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  20. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 164.944
  21. Puyo Puyo S (Sega) - 154.573
  22. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 150.434
  23. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  24. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 141.889
  25. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513
  26. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 137.185
  27. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) - 134.858
  28. FIFA 18 (EA) - 122.998
  29. Derby Stallion (Game Addict) - 121.740
  30. Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 112.277
TOTAL: 12.733.985

Top 10 Publishers:
  1. Konami - 2.920.355
  2. Capcom - 2.153.674
  3. Microsoft - 1.892.400
  4. Bandai Namco - 1.513.999
  5. Square Enix - 1.383.335
  6. Marvelous - 585.220
  7. Sega - 531.054
  8. Level 5 - 358.356
  9. Koei Tecmo - 358.327
  10. Ubisoft - 213.453
Since January Third parties have gained 3.28 million sales on the Switch, with Capcom leading the way with over half of these sales.
This Quarter will be all about Rise, Rune Factory 5 and how well Momotaro continues to hold. With no other major third party games launching, Trials of Mana is the game that should be knocked off the Top 30 when Rune Factory 5 launches, meaning that Marvelous will close the gap on Square Enix

The gap between the lifetime sales of the PS4 Top 30 is below 3 million, so by late July I anticipate that third parties on the Switch will have surpassed 16 million. And Q3 is when thing are set to accelerate with Baseball Spirits, SMT V, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Shin Kun, Samurai Warriors 5 joining the fray.

Overall since I made this comparison in October the Top 30 on the Switch has gained 5.14 million, and as PlayStation ecosystem fades in Japan it's likely that we will see further consolidation of third party efforts on the Nintendo Switch.
The biggest decline will be felt by Western Third Parties, as their AAA games will become a real niche in Japan - when COD is struggling to surpass 200K you know you have a problem on your hands.
 

noshten

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Oct 20, 2014
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Third Party Top 30 Switch
  1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.298.444
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 2.290.049
  3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 2.087.501
  4. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 677.452
  5. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 597.067
  6. Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco) - 589.425
  7. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 392.515
  8. Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Capcom) - 379.611
  9. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 367.082
  10. Yo-kai Watch 4 (Level 5) - 358.356
  11. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 297.187
  12. Dragon Quest Builders 2 (Square Enix) - 295.237
  13. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) - 281.140
  14. Super Bomberman R3 (Konami) - 275.029
  15. Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball (Konami) - 248.024
  16. Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (Ubisoft) - 213.453
  17. Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 195.328
  18. Octopath Traveller (Square Enix) - 193.780
  19. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival (Bandai Namco) - 185.990
  20. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 (Bandai Namco) - 181.090
  21. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (Marvelous) - 164.944
  22. Human: Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 164.248
  23. Puyo Puyo S (Sega) - 154.573
  24. Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 150.542
  25. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 150.434
  26. Super Dragon Ball Heroes: World Mission (Bandai Namco) - 145.720
  27. Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 142.476
  28. Fitness Boxing (Imagineer) - 141.889
  29. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 137.513
  30. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) - 134.858
TOTAL: 13.900.957

Top 10 Publishers:
  1. Konami - 3.260.831
  2. Capcom - 2.873.383
  3. Microsoft - 2.087.501
  4. Bandai Namco - 1.836.805
  5. Square Enix - 1.301.327
  6. Marvelous - 596.518
  7. Sega - 547.088
  8. Koei Tecmo - 367.082
  9. Level 5 - 358.356
  10. Ubisoft - 213.453
Third parties this Quarter performed below my expectation, as I had expected Rise at this point to had surpassed 2.5 million physical(with digital the game is sitting at over 3.5 million units sold in Japan).

By the end of the year Konami will surpass 4 million units of Software on the Switch with Momotaro, Yu-Gi-Oh, Power Prokun Pocket R & Baseball Spirits contributing to a record breaking FY for the publisher. Momotaro's shipment will exceed 4 million by the end of the year with physical sales likely above 2.75 million. Momotaro will end up overtaking Rise in the coming weeks once again becoming the best selling third party game on the Switch. Yu-Gi-Oh is the next major game for Konami, in the past the franchise had million selling games, but since this was 20 years ago, anything above 500K shipped would be a major deal for Konami. While Power Prokun Pocket R could be their holiday hit this year, if it gets the same amount of push and positive reception as Momotaro it's launching at a perfect time of very high software sales.

Capcom is heading for 3.5 million physical sales by the end of the year, Rise alone has sold so much with digital, making it the 3rd best selling Monster Hunter game in Japan behind Monster Hunter 2 Unite & Monster Hunter 3, the main question is whether future DLC to Rise will allow it to sell another 1.5 million lifetime in order to surpass Monster Hunter 3 on the PSP which ended up just shy of 5 million sales. With Monster Hunter World + Iceborne sales being combined by Capcom, I think that the future expansion of Rise will allow it to become the best selling game in the franchise in Japan.
For them it's also good to see that MH Stories 2 has already sold out it's initial shipment in Japan, with digital sales it's likely the game has already close to 300K sales in the country. This title might end up with over 400K physical sales lifetime, overtaking Generations Ultimate as the 2nd best selling game on the Switch.
Beyond this year, we can also expect a Switch Resident Evil game that was leaked to release in Q1 2022.

Minecraft will continue to sell, as it's popularity is not going away. With 2 million physical sales and very high digital sales it could already be the first Switch 3rd Party title in Japan to have surpassed 4 million units. Microsoft has never disclosed how much the game is actually selling on the Switch digitally but it likely sold over 150K just during H1 of this year based on its #9 position on the eShop H1 Chart. There is no reason to think that next year it won't surpass 3 million physical.

Without major titles Bandai Namco & Square Enix will continue to loose ground, the next titles to exit the Top 30 are Bravely Default 2 which failed to perform as well as the original and Pirate Warriors 4. For Bandai the rest of the year is pretty much aligned to PS as Tales of Arise is their only major release for the remaining 2021, they do have a Super Robot Wars 30 game that's coming to both the PS4/Switch - unlikely to ship over 150K on the Switch alone, Dragon Ball: Kakarot is a very late port so it's more likely to perform similarly to FighterZ which failed to surpass 100K physical.
For Square we have nothing really announced on the Switch the rest of the year, with Dragon Quest XII likely being a 2022 or even 2023 title. I still expect another Dragon Quest spin-off by them for the fall this year, as otherwise they would fail to launch anything during a key period for the Switch - OLED launching, Pokemon Remakes & Super Mario Party.

Marvelous is the publisher that despite botched launches is challenging Square & Bandai, Olive Town, Rune Factory 5 and Sakuna combined will surpass 800K physical this year. The 2021 Marvelous titles in particular had very bad WoM during their launches and it feels like it's the price for early access Japanese audience is paying, as Rune Factory 5 will only launch in the West next year, while Olive Town launched in the West after it's first major patch so WoM wasn't as bad. Regardless of the bad launch Olive Town did sell it's initial shipment and is likely going to ship over 400K physical this year in Japan, digital performance of the game during launch was around 100K, so the franchise is still likely to surpass 1 million shipment in Japan lifetime. Sakuna is likely to end up outselling, Rune Factory 5 can definitely surpass 200K this year but reception of updates, will be key to it's lifetime potential. While in Sakuna's case with digital it's likely surpassed half a million on the Switch, it had huge digital sales at launch & recently got it's first ever discount on the eShop. If they can release another surprise hit in the fall it's possible for them to end up ahead of Bandai & Square.

Koei & Sega are not seeing huge gains this year, Sega obviously is more invested into the PS ecosystem with Lost Judgement this fall. Perhaps there will be announcement that can land them a hit game later this year. In any case strategy changes at Sega were made around an year ago, so perhaps we will start to see the first titles that were impacted by this. For Koei they are making gains due to Age of Calamity for sure, but Samurai Warriors 5 is unlikely to surpass 150K physical this year on the Switch. Dynasty Warriors 9: Empires is launching this year but it's also not a guaranteed 150K seller on the Switch. The last game in the DW franchise to be on a Nintendo hardware was 9 years ago on the 3DS.. a lot will depend on what both publishers reveal for the fall and early next year.

Ubisoft & Level 5 will soon lose their positions in 9th & 10th place, as Imagineer with Fitness Boxing & Fitness Boxing 2 is likely to surpass 400K physical this year in Japan. Atlus with SMT V is potentially heading for a similar amount if not more. Right now I think the game is easily in the 400K physical lifetime bracket. Neos & Teyon are other smaller publishers vying to enter the frame with Shin-Chan & Human Fall Flat likely ending up with over 300K sales this year.

Teyon is a special case likely only the 2nd Western indie publisher with a game that surpassed 1 million in Japan on the Switch alone, as Human Fall Flat's sales are likely 10:90 digital in Japan. The game hasn't exited the Top 10 since and it's physical release is only a small portion of it's sales. It was the 5th best selling game on the eShop for H1 which means that this year digital sales continue to surpass physical ones 2:1 at the very minimum.
 
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Marty-McFly

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PS4 has also been available several years longer.

Overall though, third party games will always sell higher on platforms that have spent tens of years trying to cultivate a third party ecosystem and relations, the playerbase for these brands become loyal to them or even just used to them on said platform.

Furthermore, third parties don't want to (can't) compete with Nintendo's evergreen monsters on Nintendo platforms, whereas Sony would be in big trouble without them.

It's a different business philosophy.
 

noshten

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Oct 20, 2014
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PS4 has also been available several years longer.

Overall though, third party games will always sell higher on platforms that have spent tens of years trying to cultivate a third party ecosystem and relations, the playerbase for these brands become loyal to them or even just used to them on said platform.

Furthermore, third parties don't want to (can't) compete with Nintendo's evergreen monsters on Nintendo platforms, whereas Sony would be in big trouble without them.

It's a different business philosophy.

Monster Hunter Rise, Momotaro, Minecraft have proven to be able to compete with Nintendo, same with the countless indies that end up selling the most on the platform.

For third parties the situation is very clear, PS ecosystem is not viable if you want to sell your games in Japan, since it makes up less than 10% of the total market, something that has not happened since 1994. Despite selling close to 1 million PS5 hardware, currently not a single game on the system has surpassed 100K physical sales in Japan. If you are a third party publishers loyalty can only go so far if it puts your business at risk.

At this point you can't be a mid sized third party in Japan and ignore the elephant in the room, Square and Bandai are making big risks with their strategies but they are big enough not to be terribly hurt by a few games under-performing or bombing in Japan. The same can't be said for most publishers and studios. This year the results is clear to see.

Famitsu Switch 3rd Parties 2021 Top 20:
  1. Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.298.444
  2. Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 1.057.026
  3. Minecraft (Microsoft) - 384.074
  4. Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  5. Monster Hunter Stories 2 (Capcom) - 195.328
  6. Baseball Spirits 2021 (Konami) - 150.542
  7. Crayon Shin-Chan (Neos) - 142.476
  8. Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  9. Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  10. Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 91.326
  11. Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 84.512
  12. Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 76.808
  13. Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  14. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  15. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 62.119
  16. Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 61.350
  17. Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 44.958
  18. Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (Bandai Namco) - 42.507
  19. Minecraft Dungeons (Microsoft) - 38.147
  20. Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  21. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) - 29.976
  22. Densha de Go!! (Square Enix) - 29.624
  23. Apex Legends: Champion Edition (Electronic Arts) - 29.057
  24. eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 27.539
  25. Disgaea 6: Defiance of Destiny (Nippon Ichi) - 25.744
  26. Jack Jeanne (Broccoli) - 25.518
  27. Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 24.000+
  28. The Quintessential Quintuplets Double Integral (Mages.) - 20.374
  29. Neo: The World Ends with You (Square Enix) - 18.799
  30. Angelique Luminarise (Koei Tecmo) - 14.506
TOTAL: 5.694.474

Top 10 Third Parties on Switch 2021:
  1. Capcom - 2.479.312
  2. Konami - 1.235.107
  3. Marvelous - 474.728
  4. Microsoft - 422.221
  5. Square Enix - 269.026
  6. Bandai Namco - 184.261
  7. Neos - 142.476
  8. Koei Tecmo - 137.975
  9. Imagineer - 91.326
  10. Teyon Japan - 76.808

Best Selling PS4/PS5 Games 2021:
  1. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
  2. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  3. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 72.727
  4. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 53.953
  5. [PS4] Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco) - 31.665
  6. [PS4] Biomutant (THQ Nordic) - 30.292
  7. [PS5] Demon's Souls (Sony) - 25.000+
  8. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales (Sony) - 25.000+
  9. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
  10. [PS4] Judgment [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 24.271
  11. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) - 23.491
  12. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
  13. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (Sony) - 17.850
  14. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
  15. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
  16. [PS4] Sakuna: of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235
  17. [PS5] Judgment (Sega) - 14.749
  18. [PS4] Ninja Gaiden: Master Collection (Koei Tecmo) - 14.483
  19. [PS4] NieR: Automata - YoRHa Edition (Square Enix) - 13.712
  20. [PS4] Guilty Gear: Strive (Arc System) - 13.574
  21. [PS4] Winning Post 9 2021 (Koei Tecmo) - 13.221
  22. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus (Bandai Namco) - 12.785
  23. [PS4] The Legend of Nayuta: Boundless Trails (Nihon Falcom) - 11.230
  24. [PS4] The Quintessential Quintuplets Double Integral (Mages.) - 10.378
  25. [PS4] Utawarerumono: Zan 2 (Aqua Plus) - 10.241
  26. [PS4] Nioh 2: The Complete Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 9.969
  27. [PS4] Neo: The World Ends with You (Square Enix) - 9.248
  28. [PS5] Returnal (Sony) - 9.148
  29. [PS4] The Caligula Effect 2 (FuRyu) - 8.454
  30. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix) - 7.966
PS4 - 22
PS5 - 8

TOTAL: 905.953
PS4 TOTAL: 723.977 (80%)
PS5 TOTAL: 181.976 (20%)

Top 10 Publishers on PS4/PS5 2021
:
  1. Capcom - 245.936
  2. Square Enix - 229.034
  3. Koei Tecmo - 110.400
  4. Sony - 93.452
  5. Bandai Namco - 69.418
  6. Sega - 39.020
  7. THQ Nordic - 30.292
  8. Nippon Ichi - 18.289
  9. Marvelous - 16.235
  10. Arc System - 13.574

Momotaro Dentetsu sales in 2021 alone are over 1.05 million, unless Sony is paying for your game and marketing it it makes very little sense to actually go the exclusive route.
Scarlet Nexus is a cautionary tale of things to come, it had good reviews but very limited potential audience and if the situation repeats with Tales of Arise, Lost Judgement and Demon Slayer in September & October.. things will only get worse in 2022.

We've already seen Konami drop PS version of Baseball Spirits a franchise that was aligned to the PS ecosystem prior to the Switch. Millennium Kitchen most famous for PlayStation slice of life games now have a Switch exclusive - Shin-chan game, Koei Tecmo just launched Samurai Warriors 5 on both systems despite the franchise having very little history on Nintendo hardware, with Dynasty Warriors to follow. Capcom is also planning a Switch exclusive Resident Evil game and with the global success of Monster Hunter Rise & MH Stories 2. Nippon Ichi not only launched Disgaea 6 on the Switch, it was the leading platform and also had exclusivity outside of Japan. Marvelous have most of their pipeline entirely focused on the Switch as a leading platform.

Times are changing and that's the reason I created this thread, in the past it was third parties that kept PlayStation competitive in Japan.
Right now Sony is loosing the vast majority of AA support, and this started maybe since PlayStation Vita was discontinued and finalized with the dissolving of Sony Japan Studios. There are other factors like removing some long-term employees that had the local relationships, putting smaller Japanese games through Western censors for approval, changing button layout, not financing smaller games, losing retail presence, lacking 1st party games that appeal to Japan and the list can probably go on.. all these things combined are basically a hole Sony dug themselves into in Japan, no matter how successful PS5 ends up becoming Japan is not going to play much of a role in the success.

Very soon Japan's vast Third Party ecosystem will become a competitive advantage for Nintendo, Sony will continue to get games aiming to be AAA hits in the West, but like Scarlet Nexus has proven this is a risky business for Japanese companies even those that are considered juggernauts like Bandai Namco. After all no matter how big Bandai, Square, Capcom, etc are they are much smaller than some of their Western competitors. A typical marketing budget for a AAA game now is close to 100 million, this is not something that's easily justified by Japanese third parties who rely on the help of Hardware makers for the marketing of titles like Monster Hunter World, Monster Hunter Rise, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy's, Kingdom Hearts etc.

At the moment the hold outs in terms of AA publishers are Arc System, Nihon Falcom & Aqua Plus - from these three companies Arc is in the best position since Guilty Gear: Strive has done over 500K the vast majority overseas, still I won't be surprised this PS franchise to be the next one that gets a late port to the Switch. Just depends on what the terms with Sony are.
Nihon which gets most of it's sales in Japan & Asia is the one in more trouble but they have a bunch of other publishers making late ports of their games for the Switch which leads to decent royalties for them, as well as a mobile game launching in China which will probably offset loses.
In terms of Aqua Plus not sure what their deal is since Visual Novels are now doing far better on the Switch - Broccoli & Mages. are both benefiting a lot from this.

depressing.

Companies are doing great, it will mean further AA investments



 
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