Support NeoGAF

[Inviusx]

I don't think this is a wild prediction, this virus is definitely getting worse on a global scale.

I'm certain that production of these units is being affected in some way also, given China's recent lockdown of most of their country.

A worldwide launch requires a world wide reveal, an event requiring the attendance of the worlds media and Sony (rightfully) are unwilling to force travel on their staff and the media that would cover it.

On top of all this there is the elephant in the room, the Olympics, set to take place in just 4 months and there are already talks about cancelling the event. Will a country famously protective of their people invite the world's athletes and tourists to their small country during a potential global pandemic?

I think the Olympics will be cancelled, experts are predicting that a vaccine won't be ready for the geberal public until at least 2021 and this cancellation will severely hurt the Japanese economy causing a domino effect with large business unwilling to trade globally if their currency tanks.

To summarise:
1. I think production of launch models will be (and probably already is) severely hampered
2. Sony not wanting to force global travel on their staff
3. Olympics will be cancelled, effecting the Japanese economy in a big way

 

[GymWolf]

I think that if the situation is gonna get worse, not only ps5 but even series X is gonna have some trouble at launch.

Viruses are not something that make discrimination.

 

[darkinstinct]

No, it won't. If it would be around long enough to have an impact, that would mean it can't be stopped. At which point you would have to deal with that fact and can't just keep everything closed or isolated. Then it is what it is, a few old people die earlier than they do now. The death rate across people up to 60 is comparable to influenca. Most people in China's factories are in their 20s and 30s. There will be a small impact in general because everything was shut down for three weeks instead of two (Chinese New Year) and because they didn't go from 0 % back to 100 % but currently at around 60 %. But that just means that as a worst case scenario there will be half as many consoles ready for launch. So you don't get 3 million, you get 1.5 million for this year. But it's more likely that the slow buildup to 100 % now won't have any effect at all on the production of consoles and their parts, which will start around June.

 

[DonF]

Yes, factories are cramped, a perfect situation to spread a virus. I believe that it will be delayed.

 

[Gavin Stevens]

Our local Chinese was shut the other day for most of the week. People got wind, Facebook started talking and there was even a story in the local paper - possible corona virus links to restaurant. People started panicking.

Turns out the bloke who runs the place, his mother died, and he took some time off. There was even a letter in the window saying as such.

But you know, people gonna panic and over do it...

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

Thank God for the Coronavirus!

Now, Cerny will finally have the extra time he needs to boost those teraflops and defeat Xbox once and for all!

#PlayStation2021
#2+0+2+1=5

 

[whyman]

I think we are just weeks away from being informed of a delay to 2021. The virus is spreading and markets are going down. I think E3 will be canceled this year too.

 

[MoreJRPG]

Considering Sony needs to rework the PS5 hardware anyways since Xbox surprised them this is a convenient excuse to delay it.

 

[Insane Metal]

Yeah I think so. Maybe the X also.

 

[sinnergy]

I think Sony will ! So the have extra time to pass Series X in power. MS will do a paper launch.

 

[Skyr]

Considering the situation gets worse by the day, I think so too.

 

[rofif]

Yes. You can't even but rift or index anymore

 

[spons]

Probably. I also doubt they'll change the hardware specs in any way or shape. Unless you give AMD a gazillion dollars you can't expect them to go back to the drawing board and change the entire SoC that's already customized to hell and back for the PS5.

 

[GenericUser]

Yes, I think so. Now that I think of it, I'm almost certain the PS5 will get delayed because of it. Maybe the xbox too.

 

[SimonGosejohann]

there will be no delays. They will just sell a few units and then say: "SOLD OUT! EVERYWHERE SOLD OUT!!" and then scalpers will sel PS5 for $999 on eBay

 

[D-Dude]

If the PS5 is delayed, isn't the Xbox also? Because they are both made in China?

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

It's pretty shameless how Microsoft is not even concerned at all about the COVID-19 and just streamrolling their marketing rollout the way they are.

 

[HE1NZ]

Corona will die out by summer. Sony is just using it as scapegoat to cover up their own incompetence.

 

[darkinstinct]

I think Sony will ! So the have extra time to pass Series X in power. MS will do a paper launch.

If they decide now to use a Corona delay to surpass them in power, they will have to launch in 2022. You can't just design an APU in a year.

 

[MiyazakiHatesKojima]

If they decide now to use a Corona delay to surpass them in power, they will have to launch in 2022. You can't just design an APU in a year.

Sure we can.

 

[FStubbs]

If they decide now to use a Corona delay to surpass them in power, they will have to launch in 2022. You can't just design an APU in a year.

Assuming PS5 is weaker - which I still doubt - I'm sure they have multiple potential designs. It wouldn't take long to surpass the Series X if they wanted to delay their launch to do so and release in 2021.

 

[Portugeezer]

The perfect plan, I mean excuse.

 

[existensmaximum]

I think you're absolutely correct.

 

[darkinstinct]

Assuming PS5 is weaker - which I still doubt - I'm sure they have multiple potential designs. It wouldn't take long to surpass the Series X if they wanted to delay their launch to do so and release in 2021.

They may have potential ideas, but they sure as hell don't have multiple potential designs in progress at any given point in time. A single chip tapeout is estimated at around $70 million. That is designing the chip, testing it virtually, producing it, testing it physically. It's not something you can just do leisurely (also TSMC is booked out for years in advance, they don't have free capacities for side projects). Once you settle with a design, you run with it.

 

[CJY]

The virus will either cause a delay or an inflated launch price due to reduced capacity. I would think Sony would choose to delay.

 

[Entroyp]

Aren’t both consoles made by the same chinese manufacturer? Will MS demand workers to show up to the factories with no regard to their safety? Just like them sending employees to public events like GDC?

 

[Virex]

Still plenty of good stuff coming out on PS4/Switch and PC. So a delay doesn't mean anything to me

 

[darkinstinct]

Aren’t both consoles made by the same chinese manufacturer?

There's no such thing. The chips are made in Taiwan. The NAND is made in South Korea. Most plastic parts and smaller electronic parts will be made in China. Assembly is happening mostly in China right now, but can easily shift to Vietnam (which is even cheaper than China, Nintendo already moved assembly there).

 

[Entroyp]

There's no such thing. The chips are made in Taiwan. The NAND is made in South Korea. Most plastic parts and smaller electronic parts will be made in China. Assembly is happening mostly in China right now, but can easily shift to Vietnam (which is even cheaper than China, Nintendo already moved assembly there).

And that capacity is exclusive to MS somehow? At least that’s one good exclusive.

I guess I don’t understand the logic of only one electronic device being impacted and others do not, given that both are made at foxconn and use the same components. Unless Phil can make them really fast at home.

 

[Inviusx]

And that capacity is exclusive to MS somehow? At least that’s one good exclusive.

I guess I don’t understand the logic of only one electronic device being impacted and others do not, given that both are made at foxconn and use the same components. Unless Phil can make them really fast at home.

I think the US is under a lot less pressure than Japan economically. Aside from manufacturing hold ups I don't see why Microsoft would hold off a launch even if they had reduced units.

 

[Larogue]

Not only PS5. The Xbox Series X, the next iPhone.

Pretty much everything that's manufacted in China and was supposed to be released in Q2 this year will probably be delayed.

 

[ZywyPL]

You can't delay something that's already delayed

 

[Zero7]

If worse comes to worse, They will still show face in their major territories, even if it means less unit's at launch. At most they will delay in the lesser important markets.

But production won't ramp up until June/July time, hopefully by then the whole virus thing will have died, or be under control.

 

[kraspkibble]

don't care. just don't delay my next gen Nvidia card.

 

[BeardGawd]

Hmmm a year head start sure helped 360 with default exclusives. Would be a nice get for MS tbh.

 

[SimonGosejohann]

Hmmm a year head start sure helped 360 with default exclusives. Would be a nice get for MS tbh.

why would PS5 be delayed but not xbox series x?

 

[Jtibh]

Hello🖐🖐

Its me . The ultimate predictor of this.
Like more than 6 weeks ago i told people.
Ever since i outlined why.
Ever since i got called all sorts of names.
Ever since i got death threats.
Its good to see you took the target off my back.
Thank you.

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

I don't believe anything will get delayed, but stock may definitely be hard to come by at launch.

 

[darkinstinct]

And that capacity is exclusive to MS somehow? At least that’s one good exclusive.

I guess I don’t understand the logic of only one electronic device being impacted and others do not, given that both are made at foxconn and use the same components. Unless Phil can make them really fast at home.

Do you expect Xbox or PS to sell more units? That's part of the answer. If you need more parts, you will suffer more. But note that Xbox has a DRAM less SSD. That means it's cheaper, doesn't rely on DRAM availability, but it's slower. If you have a normal SSD, you will have one more factor where you will experience delays.
BTW I never suggested that Microsoft would not be hurt by this. I just said that they don't have a Chinese manufacturer, they source their parts from all over Asia.

 

[phil_t98]

Our local Chinese was shut the other day for most of the week. People got wind, Facebook started talking and there was even a story in the local paper - possible corona virus links to restaurant. People started panicking.

Turns out the bloke who runs the place, his mother died, and he took some time off. There was even a letter in the window saying as such.

But you know, people gonna panic and over do it...

where do you live? same thing happened to my Chinese

 

[Gavin Stevens]

where do you live? same thing happened to my Chinese

Telford, Shropshire?

 

[phil_t98]

Telford, Shropshire?

ah Skem here, wonder if our Chinese's are related lol

 

[Gavin Stevens]

ah Skem here, wonder if our Chinese's are related lol

Hope not, mine would be cold before it got to me

 

[intbal]

Turns out the bloke who runs the place, his mother died, and he took some time off. There was even a letter in the window saying as such.

That doesn't mean he doesn't also have coronavirus.

 

[McHuj]

I don't think so. I think this virus is out there and no containment measures will work. People will just have to live with it until a vaccine comes out.

 

[NickFire]

I think that if the situation is gonna get worse, not only ps5 but even series X is gonna have some trouble at launch.

Viruses are not something that make discrimination.

I agree that if it gets really bad both probably get delayed. Unless I'm missing something and they manufacture all parts in different countries.

But I doubt they do get delayed. Maybe they come up with less launch units if factories close for a while, but I don't believe (now at least) that plants will be closed for months with shipping shut down too. And if it does, launch dates for next gen will be the least of our concerns.

 

[Sub_Level]

That would fucking suck.

Human lives are more important of course. But damn.

 

[iorek21]

I believe some games will also be delayed

 

[ethomaz]

Maybe yours but not mine.
Day one baby!

 

[daninthemix]

Good.