I know that here on gaming forums, we always have a propensity to make the worst possible predictions about everything, and that they're nearly always wrong 
But still, I figured that with a reveal of the next generation of gaming consoles imminent anytime now, it would be as good a time as any to discuss the potential strengths and weaknesses of the upcoming consoles, and to try and figure out which console manufacturer might be best primed going into the next generation.
This analysis will be inherently flawed, of course. Except for the Wii U, we don't really know much about any future console, apart from rumors and rumblings, and we don't know much about the Wii U itself either. However, there are certain management and financial trends and decisions that, simply because of the inertia associated with them, are indicative of future policy. That, plus history and precedence can always aid in such analyses.
So in any case, here's a roundup of how well the upcoming generation of consoles may be primed:
MICROSOFT
Xbox 720/Xbox Loop/Xbox Infinity/Xbox 3/Xbox Next
The Pros:
*Xbox LIVE: Microsoft has, with the Xbox and the Xbox 360, managed to build up a thoroughly excellent online community. Argue about PSN's relative merits all you want, argue about the fact that at $60 a year, Xbox LIVE is a veritable rip off. It doesn't matter one bit. Millions upon millions of gamers worldwide have built their online presences and identities on Xbox LIVE, complete with Gamertags, Games Lists, Achievements, Gamerscores, Friends Lists and more, and they're unlikely to move. Their absolute level of comfort with Xbox LIVE makes it likelier that they will stick with the console that offers LIVE rather than migrate, and this gives Microsoft a massive pre installed base to begin with. There are people who argue that the Xbox has no exclusives, but it has one, and that is very powerful: it has Xbox LIVE.
*Third party support: Mixrosoft and the Xbox may not have much in the way of exclusive third party support, but it doesn't matter at all. All third parties, and especially western third parties, seem to favor Microsoft's consoles, which offer straightforward architecture and a lot of hardware resources. Multiplats are almost always developed for the Xbox 360 first, and as long as Microsoft can continue the tradition of offering simple, PC like powerful architecture to third parties, then it will ensure that it gets all the notable games next generation.
*Mainstream recognition: The Xbox brand has become supremely powerful over the last generation. Achieving a level of mainstream recognition and acceptance that arguably rivals the kind that Nintendo, Sony and Sega have all enjoyed in the past, the mainstream media and audiences are likely to flock to the next Xbox, especially considering the kind of success the Xbox enjoyed this generation because of Microsoft's clever positioning of the system as the Call of Duty box.
The Cons:
*Kinect: The Kinect was incredibly successful, and it gave the Xbox a new lease of life just as it seemed the system might be flagging. However, Microsoft's insistence on pushing the new peripheral has been nothing short of disastrous, as core first party support for the system has all but dried up, leaving us with nothing but Kinect shovelware. If Microsoft's insistence on continuing with Kinect carries over into the next generation, then we might see a repeat of the Wii.
*Japan: The Xbox has no traction in Japan. Period. None whatsoever, and this can be highly problematic for Microsoft in the coming years. Yes, the fact that the Xbox manages to keep apace of the PS3 and even get ahead of it, in spite of the fact that it has one full territory less to work with, is highly impressive, but in the coming years, Microsoft will need to actively do something to ensure that the Xbox brand gains traction in Japan.
*No first party whatsoever: Halo. Forza. Fable. And that's it. That's all Microsoft has. They have Gears of War, but that's Epic's IP. They have a plethora of other IPs, like Banjo Kazooie, Perfect Dark, Project Gotham Racing, Conker, Kameo, and much more, but they aren't doing anything to utilize them. As it becomes incredibly clearer that all consoles next gen might be on par as far as third party support is concerned, Microsoft needs to work on building a good first party, and fast.
*The Specs: Reports on the next Xbox's power are conflicted, although most seem to point at a system that won't be a massive leap over current generation systems at all. This leaves the success of the next Xbox entirely contingent on the hands of what Sony and Nintendo do- if they decide too that their next system shouldn't be much of a power leap, then Microsoft is safe. However, in the opposite scenario, Microsoft might be screwed.
SONY
Playstation 4
The Pros:
*Incredible First Party: Sony has, over the last few years, built a stable of some incredible first party franchises. God of War, Uncharted, LittleBigPlanet, inFamous, Killzone, Resistance, Ratchet and Clank, and much, much more, covering a diverse variety of genres, all high quality. As long as Sony can maintain the quality of their first party stable with their next system, they have a differentiating base that can attract a fanbase.
*PSN: It sucked at the beginning of the generation, but over the last few years, Sony has worked on improving it, and now, it's an asset. The negative publicity brought on by last year's hacks notwithstanding, PSN represents the same kind of advantage for Sony that LIVE does for Microsoft.
*Guaranteed Third Party Support: So far, there has never been a Sony system that did not have proper third party support. Even the PS3's formative years were marked by lost exclusive third party support, not third party support period. With the PS4 too, we can rest assured in the investment, knowing that it will have both first and third party support.
The Cons:
*Sony's makes incredibly shitty decisions: $599. Absolutely baffling advertising. Overpriced PS Vita memory cards. No backwards compatibility on the PS3. The goddamn Cell. I could go on. The problem with Sony is, as great as their products are, they almost always manage to run them into the ground with some of the worst corporate decisions, ever.
*Sony's financial situation is precarious: The company as a whole is in dire straits, and it might not be possible for Sony to continually invest in a loss making venture, assuming the PS4 turns out to be one. Their entire decision making process might be fully dictated by their financial situation.
*Power: It is almost certain Sony will opt for the system power route with the PS4 again, especially if the PS Vita is any indication. The problem with this is, not only would it make the system expensive again, both for Sony and for consumers, but we might also be looking at a situation where the extra system power is never utilized, especially if both Microsoft and Nintendo decide to opt for modest power jumps instead,a nd third parties develop for them and simply upport to the PS4.
NINTENDO
Wii U
The Pros:
*Nintendo's First Party: Seriously, let's stop and consider Nintendo's first party. Simply the best first party in the industry, and the most enviable stable of franchises and IPs, games like Mario, Metroid, The Legend of Zelda, Super Smash Bros., Kirby, Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, F-Zero and Star Fox will sell themselves, as well as the system they are on. As long as Nintendo can maintain the integrity and consistency of these franchises- and let's face it, they will, they've done it for over two decades now- they're good to go.
*Third Party Support: There is definitely increased third party support for the Wii U. Assassin's Creed, Arkham City, Tekken, Ninja Gaiden, Darksiders, Future Soldier, and many, many more third parties games and franchises have all been pledged to the Wii U. Nintendo is making a visibly improved effort to address the one shortcoming of its consoles, and that is consistently little third party support.
*Head Start: Releasing at the end of this year, the Wii U will be the first eighth generation console out of the gate. This gives it an opportunity to develop a user base ahead of the competition, and to gain favor with third parties, especially as a lead console for all multiplats. This one year lead might be the decisive factor in a potential Nintendo victory.
*The tablet controller: The tablet controller is a stroke of genius. Essentially a traditional controller with a touch screen, the controller is infinitely customizable, presenting for the traditonalist a dual analog control scheme, but for third parties and the more enterprising gamer, options and alternatives. The tablet controller might turn out to be Nintendo's most successful controller experiment since the N64.
The Cons:
*System Power: How powerful is the Wii U? We don't know, although most reports indicate it is 2-6x as powerful as an Xbox 360. Is that enough? The Wii U might be able to keep pace with the HD twins, but will it be left in the dust again, similar to the Wii, once the new Xbox and Playstation hit the markets? The Wii U's continued success with the third parties is entirely contingent on how powerful Microsoft's and Sony's systems are. If the Wii U is at least in the same power range, it will do well, otherwise, it might be in a world of trouble.
*Third Party Support: An extension of the point raised above, but exactly what kind of third party support can we count on for the Wii U, and for how long? Can we be certain, for instance, that third parties will support the Wii U even after the PS4 and Xbox 3 have released? Can we even be certain that many major third parties, like Epic and Rockstar, will even support the Wii U? These are all integral questions that Nintendo needs to answer, and fast.
*Online: Nintendo blew it with their online strategy. Thankfully, only six years too late, they have woken up to the reality of the situation, but there are two problems. As promising as Nintendo Network sounds, are we sure it will be up the standard set by the competition? And even if it is, will people who have already created profiles, complete with their achievements and friends lists, want to migrate and start from scratch?
---
There will be other contenders in the market too. Apparently, Apple wants to enter the console race tangentially with its Apple TV, like it entered the handheld race with iOS. Whether they can replicate that success in the console realm is a question up for grabs, but it's an interesting notion all the same.
Then there's Valve, who apparently are working on an infinitely customizable, and supremely powerful, Steambox. Considering the goodwill Valve enjoys, as well as the level of third party support it could potentially have, a Steambox sounds like it might upset the market, especially given the open source model Valve is reportedly considering.
However the next generation ultimately turns out, from our standpoint, it might be the best one yet. For the first time ever, we have all three console manufacturers uniquely positioned in positions of more or less equal strength. It could go either way, as of right now, it would be impossible to predict a winner either way.
However, I would still like to pose the following question to my fellow GAFfers: considering the pros and cons that I just listed (as well as any more, if you have any, that come to your mind), what console manufacturer do you think is best primed for the next generation of console gaming? One of the big three? Or will it turn out to be Apple or Valve with their disruptive technologies?
But still, I figured that with a reveal of the next generation of gaming consoles imminent anytime now, it would be as good a time as any to discuss the potential strengths and weaknesses of the upcoming consoles, and to try and figure out which console manufacturer might be best primed going into the next generation.
This analysis will be inherently flawed, of course. Except for the Wii U, we don't really know much about any future console, apart from rumors and rumblings, and we don't know much about the Wii U itself either. However, there are certain management and financial trends and decisions that, simply because of the inertia associated with them, are indicative of future policy. That, plus history and precedence can always aid in such analyses.
So in any case, here's a roundup of how well the upcoming generation of consoles may be primed:
MICROSOFT
Xbox 720/Xbox Loop/Xbox Infinity/Xbox 3/Xbox Next
The Pros:
*Xbox LIVE: Microsoft has, with the Xbox and the Xbox 360, managed to build up a thoroughly excellent online community. Argue about PSN's relative merits all you want, argue about the fact that at $60 a year, Xbox LIVE is a veritable rip off. It doesn't matter one bit. Millions upon millions of gamers worldwide have built their online presences and identities on Xbox LIVE, complete with Gamertags, Games Lists, Achievements, Gamerscores, Friends Lists and more, and they're unlikely to move. Their absolute level of comfort with Xbox LIVE makes it likelier that they will stick with the console that offers LIVE rather than migrate, and this gives Microsoft a massive pre installed base to begin with. There are people who argue that the Xbox has no exclusives, but it has one, and that is very powerful: it has Xbox LIVE.
*Third party support: Mixrosoft and the Xbox may not have much in the way of exclusive third party support, but it doesn't matter at all. All third parties, and especially western third parties, seem to favor Microsoft's consoles, which offer straightforward architecture and a lot of hardware resources. Multiplats are almost always developed for the Xbox 360 first, and as long as Microsoft can continue the tradition of offering simple, PC like powerful architecture to third parties, then it will ensure that it gets all the notable games next generation.
*Mainstream recognition: The Xbox brand has become supremely powerful over the last generation. Achieving a level of mainstream recognition and acceptance that arguably rivals the kind that Nintendo, Sony and Sega have all enjoyed in the past, the mainstream media and audiences are likely to flock to the next Xbox, especially considering the kind of success the Xbox enjoyed this generation because of Microsoft's clever positioning of the system as the Call of Duty box.
The Cons:
*Kinect: The Kinect was incredibly successful, and it gave the Xbox a new lease of life just as it seemed the system might be flagging. However, Microsoft's insistence on pushing the new peripheral has been nothing short of disastrous, as core first party support for the system has all but dried up, leaving us with nothing but Kinect shovelware. If Microsoft's insistence on continuing with Kinect carries over into the next generation, then we might see a repeat of the Wii.
*Japan: The Xbox has no traction in Japan. Period. None whatsoever, and this can be highly problematic for Microsoft in the coming years. Yes, the fact that the Xbox manages to keep apace of the PS3 and even get ahead of it, in spite of the fact that it has one full territory less to work with, is highly impressive, but in the coming years, Microsoft will need to actively do something to ensure that the Xbox brand gains traction in Japan.
*No first party whatsoever: Halo. Forza. Fable. And that's it. That's all Microsoft has. They have Gears of War, but that's Epic's IP. They have a plethora of other IPs, like Banjo Kazooie, Perfect Dark, Project Gotham Racing, Conker, Kameo, and much more, but they aren't doing anything to utilize them. As it becomes incredibly clearer that all consoles next gen might be on par as far as third party support is concerned, Microsoft needs to work on building a good first party, and fast.
*The Specs: Reports on the next Xbox's power are conflicted, although most seem to point at a system that won't be a massive leap over current generation systems at all. This leaves the success of the next Xbox entirely contingent on the hands of what Sony and Nintendo do- if they decide too that their next system shouldn't be much of a power leap, then Microsoft is safe. However, in the opposite scenario, Microsoft might be screwed.
SONY
Playstation 4
The Pros:
*Incredible First Party: Sony has, over the last few years, built a stable of some incredible first party franchises. God of War, Uncharted, LittleBigPlanet, inFamous, Killzone, Resistance, Ratchet and Clank, and much, much more, covering a diverse variety of genres, all high quality. As long as Sony can maintain the quality of their first party stable with their next system, they have a differentiating base that can attract a fanbase.
*PSN: It sucked at the beginning of the generation, but over the last few years, Sony has worked on improving it, and now, it's an asset. The negative publicity brought on by last year's hacks notwithstanding, PSN represents the same kind of advantage for Sony that LIVE does for Microsoft.
*Guaranteed Third Party Support: So far, there has never been a Sony system that did not have proper third party support. Even the PS3's formative years were marked by lost exclusive third party support, not third party support period. With the PS4 too, we can rest assured in the investment, knowing that it will have both first and third party support.
The Cons:
*Sony's makes incredibly shitty decisions: $599. Absolutely baffling advertising. Overpriced PS Vita memory cards. No backwards compatibility on the PS3. The goddamn Cell. I could go on. The problem with Sony is, as great as their products are, they almost always manage to run them into the ground with some of the worst corporate decisions, ever.
*Sony's financial situation is precarious: The company as a whole is in dire straits, and it might not be possible for Sony to continually invest in a loss making venture, assuming the PS4 turns out to be one. Their entire decision making process might be fully dictated by their financial situation.
*Power: It is almost certain Sony will opt for the system power route with the PS4 again, especially if the PS Vita is any indication. The problem with this is, not only would it make the system expensive again, both for Sony and for consumers, but we might also be looking at a situation where the extra system power is never utilized, especially if both Microsoft and Nintendo decide to opt for modest power jumps instead,a nd third parties develop for them and simply upport to the PS4.
NINTENDO
Wii U
The Pros:
*Nintendo's First Party: Seriously, let's stop and consider Nintendo's first party. Simply the best first party in the industry, and the most enviable stable of franchises and IPs, games like Mario, Metroid, The Legend of Zelda, Super Smash Bros., Kirby, Donkey Kong, Pikmin, Fire Emblem, F-Zero and Star Fox will sell themselves, as well as the system they are on. As long as Nintendo can maintain the integrity and consistency of these franchises- and let's face it, they will, they've done it for over two decades now- they're good to go.
*Third Party Support: There is definitely increased third party support for the Wii U. Assassin's Creed, Arkham City, Tekken, Ninja Gaiden, Darksiders, Future Soldier, and many, many more third parties games and franchises have all been pledged to the Wii U. Nintendo is making a visibly improved effort to address the one shortcoming of its consoles, and that is consistently little third party support.
*Head Start: Releasing at the end of this year, the Wii U will be the first eighth generation console out of the gate. This gives it an opportunity to develop a user base ahead of the competition, and to gain favor with third parties, especially as a lead console for all multiplats. This one year lead might be the decisive factor in a potential Nintendo victory.
*The tablet controller: The tablet controller is a stroke of genius. Essentially a traditional controller with a touch screen, the controller is infinitely customizable, presenting for the traditonalist a dual analog control scheme, but for third parties and the more enterprising gamer, options and alternatives. The tablet controller might turn out to be Nintendo's most successful controller experiment since the N64.
The Cons:
*System Power: How powerful is the Wii U? We don't know, although most reports indicate it is 2-6x as powerful as an Xbox 360. Is that enough? The Wii U might be able to keep pace with the HD twins, but will it be left in the dust again, similar to the Wii, once the new Xbox and Playstation hit the markets? The Wii U's continued success with the third parties is entirely contingent on how powerful Microsoft's and Sony's systems are. If the Wii U is at least in the same power range, it will do well, otherwise, it might be in a world of trouble.
*Third Party Support: An extension of the point raised above, but exactly what kind of third party support can we count on for the Wii U, and for how long? Can we be certain, for instance, that third parties will support the Wii U even after the PS4 and Xbox 3 have released? Can we even be certain that many major third parties, like Epic and Rockstar, will even support the Wii U? These are all integral questions that Nintendo needs to answer, and fast.
*Online: Nintendo blew it with their online strategy. Thankfully, only six years too late, they have woken up to the reality of the situation, but there are two problems. As promising as Nintendo Network sounds, are we sure it will be up the standard set by the competition? And even if it is, will people who have already created profiles, complete with their achievements and friends lists, want to migrate and start from scratch?
---
There will be other contenders in the market too. Apparently, Apple wants to enter the console race tangentially with its Apple TV, like it entered the handheld race with iOS. Whether they can replicate that success in the console realm is a question up for grabs, but it's an interesting notion all the same.
Then there's Valve, who apparently are working on an infinitely customizable, and supremely powerful, Steambox. Considering the goodwill Valve enjoys, as well as the level of third party support it could potentially have, a Steambox sounds like it might upset the market, especially given the open source model Valve is reportedly considering.
However the next generation ultimately turns out, from our standpoint, it might be the best one yet. For the first time ever, we have all three console manufacturers uniquely positioned in positions of more or less equal strength. It could go either way, as of right now, it would be impossible to predict a winner either way.
However, I would still like to pose the following question to my fellow GAFfers: considering the pros and cons that I just listed (as well as any more, if you have any, that come to your mind), what console manufacturer do you think is best primed for the next generation of console gaming? One of the big three? Or will it turn out to be Apple or Valve with their disruptive technologies?
