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Predict the next Big $$$ Success story

Feb 15, 2021
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Okay GAF let's see how good you are at Predicating the Future!

Which game is going to be the next break out hit or which series will experience significant growth? You can predict anything just please be precise in your predictions i.e. Game X will sell 10 million units or Game Y will be biggest in the Franchise Also please give details as to why you think it will.

No games or series are off the table if there already popular but you think they will grow even more say it! E.g. GTA6 will sell 200 million units lol.

A few things to maybe consider when making a predication.

  • YouTube, Twitch, Google Trends metrics etc seem to be pretty good indicators of future sales.
  • Consider if the game will be good or not. High metacritic scores correlate with High sales. Conversely games that had massive hype but released with problems or weren't good didn't sell as well as they could have..E g. Fallout 76, Avengers and Cyberpunk 2077.
  • Consider but don't put too much emphasis on previous games sales. You don't want to end up looking like this! https://www.resetera.com/threads/hi...ter-world-could-sell-10-million-copies.14121/. Look at what the new game is bringing to the table not what the old ones did,has the general gaming audience taste changed over the years etc. Another example I remember is people saying spiderman couldn't hit 10 million because the arkham game never did ( At least officially)
Okay so to get things started here are my bold( or not!) predictions of future success!

Elden ring 20 million units.

Okay so 10 million is practically guaranteed dark souls 3 has already done that and the souls fanbase is incredibly reliable. 20 million is a real big leap so my reasons are

Bigger marketing budget
Open world
George R.R. Martin
Very High Quality maybe landmark game.

I feel the open world will make it more appealing and more accessible to a wider audience. This game just sounds incredible it could be the next landmark openworld game on the level of breath of the wild or witcher 3 both of which have exceeded 20 million units.

Harry Potter Howard's Legacy 10 million units.

This one's more straightforward Harry Potter is obviously a monstrous brand and the youtube numbers are crazy currently over 25 million views on just the playstation channel. Main question marks at the moment are if the game will be any good with a developer unproven at the top level. If it turns out good 10 million may end up being conservative.

Final Fantasy 16 best selling entry in the series. This is a bit more of long shot. I'am banking on Naoki Yoshida here! Final Fantasy 14 is on fire at the moment in a large part to him and his team. I am hoping he can deliver the best mainline FF in along time. It main issue at the moment is it only being announced on the PS5.

Wolverine 20 million units. This one captain obvious Sony, Marvel and ESPECIALLY insomniac are on fire at the moment. Of course this is gonna be a good game 10 million is such a lock I would bet both testicles and my foreskin on it. I am pretty confident with 20 million as well considering Spidey and God of war have already done it.

So there are mine GAF what are yours?
 
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FrankWza

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Seeing Red Lisa Kudrow GIF by The Comeback HBO
 

Hinedorf

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Whoever figures out how to do Google Stadia correctly. It's the absolute future and there's very little wiggle room I can see but somebody has to not fuck up so badly like Google did which is weird when you consider the pipeline of money to support this project if they wanted it to really work.
 
Jun 28, 2013
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If Sony expands Dreams with multiplayer and a mobile version, it’ll be huge. I guess PC support is possible. But mobile support is necessary.

Also needs a rename and abandon PS4 support. DreamCraft or something.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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Total guess.

GTA Definitive Edition will outsell all the new splashy games coming out soon (Elden Ring etc...). It'll go toe to toe with COD and FIFA. It might not sell as much in year one (they sell about 20 million each). But long run GTA DF will sell 50 million.
 
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BadBurger

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Get vaccinated
I think Hogwart's Legacy will be a surprise hit. The fanbase is massive. Hell, Rowling is still making a killing off her Pottermore website. Imagine how many people grew up with the books and films who are now parents in the prime earning years of their lives.
 

Markio128

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The Harry Potter game looks superb, but I worry the devs have been a little too ambitious. Hope not. Agreed that it could be a big seller, as long as it turns out good.

Halo should be the next big hitter and sell good numbers.

My guess is that both GT7 and Horizon FW will sell decent numbers. GT has been on a bit of a downward slope in terms of sales, but I reckon that‘s because of the lack of true career mode, with mods and parts, etc. Hopefully GT7 reverses the trend, especially since it’ll be available on PS4 and PS5.
 

kingfey

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Probably will by the time the super-duper anniversary special modtastic version has been released
If pc tough me something, You will see some big dlc from modding community. All bethesda content are just extra, and not dlc at this point. The modding community keep releasing insane junks of content every year.
 

SlimeGooGoo

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Dragon's Dogma 2 will get 10 million lifetime sales

Dragon Quest 12 will not be received well by longtime franchise fans (just a hunch)

Persona 6 will be bad, but will do well sales wise

Final Fantasy 7R Part 2 will do worse than the first part

Zelda Botw 2 will not sell as many copies as the first one
 

Elder Legend

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Halo Infinite most likely to be more successful than most people predicted. Thanks to game pass, 1 year of delay for fixes/polish and taking the feedback to heart.
 
Feb 15, 2021
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Dragon's Dogma 2 will get 10 million lifetime sales

Dragon Quest 12 will not be received well by longtime franchise fans (just a hunch)

Persona 6 will be bad, but will do well sales wise

Final Fantasy 7R Part 2 will do worse than the first part

Zelda Botw 2 will not sell as many copies as the first one
Dragon's Dogman 2 is pretty bold care to elaborate why it will do 10 million?
 

WitchHunter

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VR is the future. Bringing famous people into vr as 3d scanned entities. Scanned by 3d scan-gang youngsters. Who will stop these famous people on the street and scan them against their will.

And from here:

sending them into space
beat them up
snuff games
whatever else : P
 
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Mar 28, 2021
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Dragon's Dogma 2 will get 10 million lifetime sales

Dragon Quest 12 will not be received well by longtime franchise fans (just a hunch)

Persona 6 will be bad, but will do well sales wise

Final Fantasy 7R Part 2 will do worse than the first part

Zelda Botw 2 will not sell as many copies as the first one
you don't sound much of an optimistic person! lol

i'm a big Persona fan so maybe a bit biased but I can't see Atlus messing up Persona 6. Sure topping 5 is gonna be a big task but it feels like Atlus has improved a lot in the last 10 years. A lot of time was spent creating a new engine for Persona 5 so they should be able to take more time to focus on story/gameplay (not that I thought it was bad in P5). Maybe P5 had to cut/rush stuff because of time restraints. As much as I enjoyed P5 some characters didn't feel too fleshed out. In the original Akechi + Haru were the ones who i felt like they didn't get quite right. In Royal they managed to improve this. They completely reworked Akechi and with Haru i think maybe it was just the pacing/balancing of the game and not so much the content. I didn't have enough time to spend with her but in Royal i had more time. Also, there were some side characters I wish had more interesting stories. I don't know if it's true but I remember reading that Hifumi was meant to be a main character but they made her a confidant. I'd have loved to see her as a main character.

not only should they have more time to work on 6 but persona 5 brought them in a lot of money so that will give them more freedom and creativity hopefully. the studio is definitely growing and of course they just released SMTV yesterday and from what i've played so far it's a fantastic game and i keep thinking about what they will be able to achieve with Persona 6.

of course there is the possibility that Persona 6 will suck but i'd be surprised if it was bad. Atlus are at the best they have ever been.
 
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IDKFA

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I think Hogwart's Legacy will be a surprise hit. The fanbase is massive. Hell, Rowling is still making a killing off her Pottermore website. Imagine how many people grew up with the books and films who are now parents in the prime earning years of their lives.

Yeah. That game is going to be one of the biggest selling games this gen. I know people that never play games that are going to buy a console just to play it.
 

Dream-Knife

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Feb 22, 2021
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Whoever figures out how to do Google Stadia correctly. It's the absolute future and there's very little wiggle room I can see but somebody has to not fuck up so badly like Google did which is weird when you consider the pipeline of money to support this project if they wanted it to really work.
The only reason people think it's the future is because they're comparing video games to passive media forms that use buffering.

Of course, if your standards for acceptable performance are low enough then sure. I say this as someone who played through MGS4 via streaming.
 

Wildebeest

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I don't think Elden Ring will be that beastly.

1. Ageing game engine and fanbase.
2. Not so much crossover between GoT fanbase and hardcore gaming.
3. Poor multiplayer and lack of social features.
4. Considering Sekiro sales, Dark Souls 3 could easily be the peak of enthusiasm for "souls" as a brand. Most players find the games too difficult and abandon them, so opinions from enthusiasts about the best Fromsoft games or the best direction for the series are to be taken with a pinch of salt.
 

Valt7786

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I don't think Elden Ring will be that beastly.

1. Ageing game engine and fanbase.
2. Not so much crossover between GoT fanbase and hardcore gaming.
3. Poor multiplayer and lack of social features.
4. Considering Sekiro sales, Dark Souls 3 could easily be the peak of enthusiasm for "souls" as a brand. Most players find the games too difficult and abandon them, so opinions from enthusiasts about the best Fromsoft games or the best direction for the series are to be taken with a pinch of salt.

I think Elden Ring is gonna be the worst for player drop off if they keep the difficulty from this network test.
Some of the bosses hit like absolute fucking trucks and have the same bullshit tracking that From bosses always have. It's gonna infuriate and drive a lot of people to quit.
 

KAL2006

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Steam Deck, only if they were able to produce more and sell it in stores and not directly from Steam.

Switch is a massive success, and PC gaming userbase is continue to grow more and more.

Now another prediction in the next 5 years. If Microsoft make a Windows Deck, and marketing campaign that it's a gaming device that can be docked and also be used for office/school work. In 5 years if they can make one of those within £350 budget I think it can be huge.

For software I think Monster Hunter World 2 will be even bigger hit than the original and be a hit for a even bigger market.
 
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SlimeGooGoo

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Dragon's Dogman 2 is pretty bold care to elaborate why it will do 10 million?
Because THE WIND IS PUSHING MEEEEEE
On a serious note, I believe it will do better than the first because it now has a bigger fanbase, rumours point it will be bigger, and it will probably release on all consoles and PC simultaneously this time around. Also, no Skyrim released months prior to ruin its sales.

you don't sound much of an optimistic person! lol

i'm a big Persona fan so maybe a bit biased but I can't see Atlus messing up Persona 6. Sure topping 5 is gonna be a big task but it feels like Atlus has improved a lot in the last 10 years. A lot of time was spent creating a new engine for Persona 5 so they should be able to take more time to focus on story/gameplay (not that I thought it was bad in P5). Maybe P5 had to cut/rush stuff because of time restraints. As much as I enjoyed P5 some characters didn't feel too fleshed out. In the original Akechi + Haru were the ones who i felt like they didn't get quite right. In Royal they managed to improve this. They completely reworked Akechi and with Haru i think maybe it was just the pacing/balancing of the game and not so much the content. I didn't have enough time to spend with her but in Royal i had more time. Also, there were some side characters I wish had more interesting stories. I don't know if it's true but I remember reading that Hifumi was meant to be a main character but they made her a confidant. I'd have loved to see her as a main character.

not only should they have more time to work on 6 but persona 5 brought them in a lot of money so that will give them more freedom and creativity hopefully. the studio is definitely growing and of course they just released SMTV yesterday and from what i've played so far it's a fantastic game and i keep thinking about what they will be able to achieve with Persona 6.

of course there is the possibility that Persona 6 will suck but i'd be surprised if it was bad. Atlus are at the best they have ever been.
I just have a feeling, because some veteran devs left Persona Team, and a lot of younger developers that worked on Persona 5 will now spearhead Persona 6's development.
Hope I'm wrong though.
 

QuickShot27

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Oct 24, 2021
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Mass Effect getting another chance will sell 10 million easily.

Think about a new game boy, it was a serious handheld the original did 100 million.
 

Perrott

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I think PSVR2 has the potential to reach mainstream success like Kinect did a decade ago on the 360. The software to make it appealing to a bigger audience will be there since day 1 imo
 
Feb 15, 2021
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I think Hogwart's Legacy will be a surprise hit. The fanbase is massive. Hell, Rowling is still making a killing off her Pottermore website. Imagine how many people grew up with the books and films who are now parents in the prime earning years of their lives.
Yeah. That game is going to be one of the biggest selling games this gen. I know people that never play games that are going to buy a console just to play it.
The Harry Potter game looks superb, but I worry the devs have been a little too ambitious. Hope not. Agreed that it could be a big seller, as long as it turns out good.

Halo should be the next big hitter and sell good numbers.

My guess is that both GT7 and Horizon FW will sell decent numbers. GT has been on a bit of a downward slope in terms of sales, but I reckon that‘s because of the lack of true career mode, with mods and parts, etc. Hopefully GT7 reverses the trend, especially since it’ll be available on PS4 and PS5.
Yes Hogwarts legacy could be huge 10 million could be conservative. Could be bigger than Spiderman.

I think it has to be high quality if the games average it could neuter its sales.I hope it is good Hogwarts Castle would be an amazing video game world.
 
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kingfey

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Starfield will be big no doubt but won't it be limited by gamepass and not being on PS5?

I think it will stuggle to match skyrim at least.

I mean sales if you mean it could have more players through gamepass then thats more likely
Starfield fanbase are pc. Consoles are 20%.

PC are ES fans, due to mods. compared to PlayStation and xbox with limited mods.