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NYT: ‘Extremely Likely’ That Human Activity Is Driving Climate Change, Panel Finds

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ivysaur12

Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/science/earth/extremely-likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panel-finds.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0

An international team of scientists has found with near certainty that human activity is the cause of most of the temperature increases of recent decades, and warns that sea levels could rise by more than three feet by the end of the century if emissions continue at a runaway pace.

The scientists, whose findings are reported in a summary of the next big United Nations climate report, largely dismiss a recent slowdown in the pace of warming, which is often cited by climate change contrarians, as probably related to short-term factors. The report emphasizes that the basic facts giving rise to global alarm about future climate change are more established than ever, and it reiterates that the consequences of runaway emissions are likely to be profound.

“It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010,” the draft report says. “There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level, and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the 20th century.”

The “extremely likely” language is stronger than in the last major United Nations report, published in 2007, and it means the authors of the draft document are now 95 percent to 100 percent confident that human activity is the primary influence on planetary warming. In the 2007 report, they said they were 90 percent to 100 percent certain on that issue.

On another closely watched issue, however, the authors retreated slightly from their 2007 position.

On the question of how much the planet could warm if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere doubled, the previous report had largely ruled out any number below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The new draft says the rise could be as low as 2.7 degrees, essentially restoring a scientific consensus that prevailed from 1979 to 2007.

Most scientists see only an outside chance that the warming will be as low as either of those numbers, with the published evidence suggesting that an increase above 5 degrees Fahrenheit is likely if carbon dioxide doubles.

The new document is not final and will not become so until an intensive, closed-door negotiating session among scientists and government leaders in Stockholm in late September. But if the past is any guide, most of the core findings of the document will survive that final review.

The document was leaked over the weekend after it was sent to a large group of people who had signed up to review it. It was first reported on in detail by the Reuters news agency, and The New York Times obtained a copy independently to verify its contents.

It was prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a large, international group of scientists appointed by the United Nations. The group does no original research, but instead periodically assesses and summarizes the published scientific literature on climate change.

“The text is likely to change in response to comments from governments received in recent weeks and will also be considered by governments and scientists at a four-day approval session at the end of September,” the panel’s spokesman, Jonathan Lynn, said in a statement Monday. “It is therefore premature and could be misleading to attempt to draw conclusions from it.”

The intergovernmental panel won the Nobel Peace Prize along with Al Gore in 2007 for seeking to educate the world’s citizens about the risks of global warming. But it has also become a political target for climate contrarians, who helped identify several minor errors in the last big report from 2007. This time, the group adopted rigorous procedures in hopes of preventing such mistakes.

On sea level, one of the biggest single worries about climate change, the new report goes well beyond the one from 2007, which largely sidestepped the question of how much the ocean could rise this century.

The new report lays out several scenarios. In the most optimistic, the world’s governments would prove far more successful at getting emissions under control than they have been in the recent past, helping to limit the total warming.

In that circumstance, sea level could be expected to rise as little as 10 inches by the end of the century, the report found. That is a bit more than the eight-inch rise in the 20th century, which proved manageable even though it caused severe erosion along the world’s shorelines.

At the other extreme, the report considers a scenario in which emissions, which have soared in recent years, continue at a runaway pace. Under those conditions, sea level could be expected to rise at least 21 inches by 2100 and might rise a bit more than three feet, the draft report said.

Hundreds of millions of people live near sea level, and either figure would represent a challenge for humanity, scientists say. But a three-foot rise in particular would endanger many of the world’s great cities — among them London, Shanghai, Venice, Sydney, Miami, New Orleans and New York.
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Scarecrow

Scarecrow

Member
Mr. Serious Business said:
The funny thing is that a lot of people complain about global warming and won't make the personal changes necessary to help prevent it.
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That's true. It took up to this summer before I decided to turn the AC off every time I head for work. It's been saving on my electric bill and everything, too.
 
E

EnderWiggles

Member
Dumb-Dumber-La-la-la-la-la.jpg
 
B

Borgnine

MBA in pussy licensing and rights management
the authors of the draft document are now 95 percent to 100 percent confident that human activity is the primary influence on planetary warming.
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Scientists being good scientists with their reluctance to deal in certainties has doomed us.
 
W

Whitechocolatekrispies

Banned
Anyone who thinks we can stop climate change at this point are almost as silly as those who don't believe we're responsible.

It's moved from preventing to surviving a long time ago.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
It's sad that for purely policital reasons rather than anything scientific, a lot of people will continue to deny this.

Not enough will be done by humans to reverse it within our lifetime because of those politics.

Our only chance will be some sort of natural cataclysm to offset the warming, something like a massive volcanic episode.
 
L

LegendofJoe

Member
If the rise in temperatures are not 100% due to human activity then the corrupt oligarchs of the US will always be able to deflect and misdirect the scared, clueless rubes who make up the majority away from the truth. I just hope there are enough knowledgeable people out there that are willing to fight for the future of our children and change course appropriately.

Or we'll continue to spend trillions fighting the terrorists, while giving up the civil protections that our forefathers fought to give us, when there is a greater chance we'll die in our bathtubs than get killed by terrorists. As long as we defeat the terrorists though all will be well.

Praise be to our holy father - Ronald Reagan! Let the golden trickle become a flood to wash away the future of our children!
 
E

Eusis

Member
Rentahamster said:
USA's CO2 emissions have been on a downward trend since 2007, due to the bad economy, better technology, and cleaner fossil fuels from fracking.
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Given some of those pictures of China's pollution I kind of suspect they're the bigger problem now. Well, they would be by default if the standard of living were equivalent to the US, though I think their middle class DOES outnumber the US's entire population now so it'd still be really easy to accomplish with a population that size even when trying to restrain themselves.

Of course we're probably fueling that anyway to an extent, what with most of our electronics and a good chunk of plastic good period being manufactured there.
Ataraxia said:
Please tell me what I can do to personally help stop global warming. Also, what changes in your life have you made for the cause?
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Yeah, while there are things we can do this really does depend more on the big businesses that burn through loads of fuel or whatever, or just fail to take measures that could end up having a huge impact (I think I saw it pointed out Old Navy or one of those stores habitually threw out hangers? Cleaning and reusing them would mean producing less plastic garbage and should be saving them money anyway.) Though things like turning off air conditioning on relatively nice days helps, it's 80 here so there wouldn't be that much need to flip it on, yet some will do it anyway.
 
A

AstroNut325

Member
Like a few others have said... even if US goes completely green the impact would still persist. Every advance we make would be negated by China and India. Many times over. However, this should not preclude the US and other developed nations to continue advancements in green tech.

ronito said:
I'm sorry is this 1989?
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???
 
F

fredrancour

Member
AstroNut325 said:
Like a few others have said... even if US goes completely green the impact would still persist. Every advance we make would be negated by China and India. Many times over. However, this should not preclude the US and other developed nations to continue advancements in green tech.



???
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He's saying this is not news and the evidence has (at the very least) leaned in this direction for decades.
 
Rentahamster

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Eusis said:
Given some of those pictures of China's pollution I kind of suspect they're the bigger problem now. Well, they would be by default if the standard of living were equivalent to the US, though I think their middle class DOES outnumber the US's entire population now so it'd still be really easy to accomplish with a population that size even when trying to restrain themselves.

Of course we're probably fueling that anyway to an extent, what with most of our electronics and a good chunk of plastic good period being manufactured there.
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China overtook the US as the world's largest producer of carbon emissions back in 2006.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/jun/19/china.usnews

http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/Chinanowno1inCO2emissionsUSAinsecondposition

But according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, soaring demand for coal to generate electricity and a surge in cement production have helped to push China's recorded emissions for 2006 beyond those from the US already. It says China produced 6,200m tonnes of CO2 last year, compared with 5,800m tonnes from the US. Britain produced about 600m tonnes.

Jos Olivier, a senior scientist at the government agency who compiled the figures, said: "There will still be some uncertainty about the exact numbers, but this is the best and most up to date estimate available. China relies very heavily on coal and all of the recent trends show their emissions going up very quickly." China's emissions were 2% below those of the US in 2005. Per head of population, China's pollution remains relatively low - about a quarter of that in the US and half that of the UK.

The new figures only include carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production. They do not include sources of other greenhouse gases, such as methane from agriculture and nitrous oxide from industrial processes. And they exclude other sources of carbon dioxide, such as from the aviation and shipping industries, as well as from deforestation, gas flaring and underground coal fires.
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