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NPD Forecast 2022: 2022’s Video Game Market Declines Expected to Continue

reksveks

Member
Twitter Thread: Source: https://www.npd.com/news/blog/2022/2022s-video-game-market-declines-expected-to-continue/

Some of the drivers of the decline include the return of experiential spending, higher prices in everyday spending categories such as food and fuel, the uncertain supply of video game console hardware and certain accessories such as gamepads, and a lighter release slate of games, among others.

The surge in video game players and engagement the market experienced during 2020 and 2021 has leveled off, and we are now seeing more entertainment opportunities emerge that compete for consumer attention and, of course, dollars.

In hardware, the video game console market has yet to reflect normalized demand given ongoing supply constraints, particularly on new generation systems such as the PlayStation 5 and the Xbox Series X. This is not likely to change throughout 2022 and will lead to continued uncertainty for the market.

On the content front, the expectation is that year-on-year declines will be experienced across PC, console and mobile platforms in both premium game sales and recurrent post-launch spending. The only category of content spending expected to gain when compared to a year ago is subscription spending.

Accessory sales are also expected to fall when compared to 2021, driven by the headset/headphone category. While headset/headphone sales continue to trend above pre-pandemic norms, they are failing to meet the sharp gains experienced earlier in the pandemic with the rise of learning and working from home.

Projected among the top 10 best-selling premium games of 2022 are (in alphabetical order): Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Elden Ring, God of War Ragnarök, Gotham Knights, Horizon: Forbidden West, LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, Madden NFL 23, NBA 2K23, Pokémon Legends: Arceus, and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet. This is, of course, pending changes to assumed release timing for announced games, and any surprise releases the market may see.

Some predictions for 2022 at the year’s halfway mark:​

  • Switch will lead 2022 console hardware in units sold, with dollar leadership a too-close-to-call race between Switch, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series.
  • Xbox Series will be the only console hardware platform to show dollar sales growth compared to 2021.
  • Hardware shortages will continue into 2023, particularly on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, while potentially impacting other segments such as VR.
  • Elden Ring will finish as 2022’s best-selling premium game in the U.S. market, marking only the 3rd time since 2009 that a Call of Duty franchise release does not lead the market.
  • Despite Elden Ring leading the individual title charts, Call of Duty will remain the U.S. market’s best-selling premium gaming franchise for a record 14th consecutive year.
  • Increased PC GPU availability and price declines will incentivize PC gamers to upgrade and make PC gaming an even more appealing consumer option.
  • Subscription will be 2022’s only video game content growth segment.
Also shared today from Piers at Ampere


Piers doesn't account for FX changes this year.
 

reksveks

Member
What does "PC gaming cannibilisation in mobile-first markets" means?
He thinks the pc software revenue will come at the expense of mobile aka markets like India will move to pc and I guess spend less in general. I am not sure I buy it but ehh.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
  • Xbox Series will be the only console hardware platform to show dollar sales growth compared to 2021.
  • Call of Duty will remain the U.S. market’s best-selling premium gaming franchise for a record 14th consecutive year.
  • Subscription will be 2022’s only video game content growth segment.


 
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Kataploom

Member
He thinks the pc software revenue will come at the expense of mobile aka markets like India will move to pc and I guess spend less in general. I am not sure I buy it but ehh.
At the expense of mobile? WTF? People care more about convenience and they won't leave their mobiles because of that lol, it's like saying "metaverses are the future" without considering people have to leave the easy to pick/check and convenience of their phones lol Unless there's something I'm not seeing that isn't even obvious
 

Vognerful

Member
  • Despite Elden Ring leading the individual title charts, Call of Duty will remain the U.S. market’s best-selling premium gaming franchise for a record 14th consecutive year.

That is huge.
 

Three

Member
He thinks the pc software revenue will come at the expense of mobile aka markets like India will move to pc and I guess spend less in general. I am not sure I buy it but ehh.
The opposite way round. Otherwise mobile gaming will be cannibalized. He is saying people in "mobile first" countries will start to play less on PC or spend less on PC.
 
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K' Dash

Member
No need. I have cloud/tv/subscription gaming that will nourish me for years to come! And I will own none of it and remain happy!

Eh... the day gaming companies started releasing unfinished games to patch the rest later, that was the end of physical media being superior to anything.

You will be able to play some of the game in the future, it's just going to be bug ridden and unfinished.

I have Starlink Battle for Atlas physical on Switch, if Ubi decides to stop supporting the day 1 patch for the game, I will never be able to leave the first planet, that is just one example.
 

MacReady13

Member
Eh... the day gaming companies started releasing unfinished games to patch the rest later, that was the end of physical media being superior to anything.

You will be able to play some of the game in the future, it's just going to be bug ridden and unfinished.

I have Starlink Battle for Atlas physical on Switch, if Ubi decides to stop supporting the day 1 patch for the game, I will never be able to leave the first planet, that is just one example.
I was clearly being sarcastic. I HATE the future of gaming that some on here seem to only want. I dearly wish physical media stayed and games were released in a finished state. Gaming is fast going down the shitter for me.
 

lh032

I cry about Xbox and hate PlayStation.
Seems like reducing operating cost should be the priority of all the gaming companies now.
 

Hari Seldon

Gold Member
I don’t know about anyone else but I can’t think of a year where I bought less games than 2022. I’m not even sure if my ps5 still boots I haven’t turned that thing on in months. It has been all PC AA and backlog this year for me and looking at the remaining release schedule it is going to stay that way unless Hogwarts comes out and is good,
 

MrA

Member
A 9% decline off of 2 crazy good pumped by unusual circumstances years isnt exactly a big deal
Plus a franchise that nearly never left Japan is going to take cod , pretty awesome
 

Jaybe

Gold Member
A 9% decline off of 2 crazy good pumped by unusual circumstances years isnt exactly a big deal
Yeah. Against 2019 doesn’t make the 2022 estimate look that bad. I wonder if he is underestimating GOWR and Hogwarts. Maybe Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade 3 do decent too with Switch’s insane install base.

 
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