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|OT| Next-Gen PS5 & XSX |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

zaitsu

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It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this
The reason is 750 million dollars in cash which is more than singleplayer GTA6 would made in lifetime on xbox platform. Also giving up one platform would reduce cost of production.

PC version is on the other hand sure after one year or so as always.
 

FunkMiller

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Maths really isn’t your strong suit is it?

Timed exclusivity doesn’t lose you much, if anything, in sales. It only defers them. Even a year's exclusivity would cost a fraction of that sum.

XBO sold about 8 million units of GTA V. So using your 40% - 8,000,000 x $60 x 40% = $192 million. Multiply that up a bit for MTX and even playing with the variables a bit you can see that $750 million EASILY buys console exclusivity for Sony.
Three years at least, I’d say. Though at that time scale it’s effectively lifetime.

I still don’t think it’ll happen, but Sony COULD do it, if they and Rockstar agreed a sum.
 
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DaGwaphics

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It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this
I guess there would be 750m reasons, in that scenario. 🤷‍♂️

I wonder if GTA6 online will be F2P? They earn so much on the MTX, maybe that would be the most profitable way forward. They've done GP and the Epic free deal.
 

SaucyJack

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It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this
In the rumour there’s 750 million reasons for them to do it.

i wouldn’t get bent out of shape about it though, we all think it’s a BS rumour.

But $750 million would buy GTA6 exclusivity so let’s not pretend otherwise. And it absolutely would be a good deal for R*. It probably would be a good deal for Playstation too.
 

Zoro7

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It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this
I don’t believe they will lose much revenue in the first year. People who spend money on GTA online are clearly hardcore fans. They will buy the game regardless of console. Not much changes for rockstar.
 
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SaucyJack

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It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this.


As a reply to your childish attack: I've got a civil engineering degree in computer science 😂

For the rest: I agree, but you are only taking copies into account not gta online revenue
Using numbers is a childish attack, to an engineer? 🤷‍♂️

You obviously missed the reference to MTX.
 
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zaitsu

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In the rumour there’s 750 million reasons for them to do it.

i wouldn’t get bent out of shape about it though, we all think it’s a BS rumour.

But $750 million would buy GTA6 exclusivity so let’s not pretend otherwise. And it absolutely would be a good deal for R*. It probably would be a good deal for Playstation too.
It would be pretty good deal for both. I cant see rockstar losing money for sure on such a deal.
 
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Setsuna Mudou

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It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this.


As a reply to your childish attack: I've got a civil engineering degree in computer science 😂

For the rest: I agree, but you are only taking copies into account not gta online revenue
To be fair, they don't get the full $60 from each purchase. If it's digital, they take ~70%. Not all games were bought full price, although not heavily discounted, a good chunk of those sales were at sub $40 for sure.
Also, not all those would be lost sales, obviously the intention is to tempt Xbox users to get a PS5 for that game, and lots of them would.

So yeah, not saying it's going to happen, but you were definitely overestimating how costly it would be for Sony.
 
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roops67

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Same here hoping Sony don't resort to deals like this, they're already in the lead they don't need to blow ridiculous money on exclusivity. Are they trying to hammer nails into XSX's coffin, they need Microsoft like Batman needs Joker. Without competition they will lose purpose to.... compete!
 
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SaucyJack

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It would be pretty good deal for both. I cant see rockstar losing money for sure on such a deal.
They get certainty from it too, which is attractive in itself.

Who knows if GTA6 would be as successful as V? GTA V was lightning in a bottle that killed it across two generations. 6 may struggle to reach the same heights. And, of course, they may completely divorce online from it and go down a F2P model. The existing online is branded as GTA Online and could just endure as is.
 
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zaitsu

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Summarize of plot favoring GTA 6 being sony exclusive :
1. No rockstar logo on XSX slide with third party studios.
2. Rumor about aggressive sony strategy about buying third party stuff
3. Rumor about 750mil dollars deal, and its a kind of cash which clearly only one game could be worth it
4. GTA ONLINE getting separated from GTA 5
5. SONY deals for GTA5/online
6. Sony selling at least 2 times more copies of GTA5 than xbox.
7. Rockstar owes Sony on game for dropping GTA4 exclusivity and abandoning Agent ?
 
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Neo Blaster

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750mil for GTA6 would only get you 1 day of exclusivity
Not even close, if you take GTA V lifetime revenue as basis, you have 6 billion divided by the number of days since release date(17/09/2013), which is 2517. You get roughly 2.4 million per day, and that includes PlayStation platforms.
 
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May 18, 2020
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Insomniac cost 225 mill. And hit that return super fast.

Sony lost out to buying Leiyou to Tencent & that deal came with 4 studios. Sony bid 1.XX something billion and lost. Yet Im suppose to believe 750 mill exclusive deal for a game.

This Gen is a content war. Even if I try to make sense of Foxy 750mill. A content deal spread over 7 years. 150 mill first year. And then 100 mill for 7 years. I don't see value in it. Just buy more studios for that money.

This was fun but Im going to skip past this.

Who the hell got Bo banned.WTF!!
 
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ksdixon

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Summarize of plot favoring GTA 6 being sony exclusive :
1. No rockstar logo on XSX slide with third party studios.
2. Rumor about aggressive sony strategy about buying third party stuff
3. Rumor about 750mil dollars deal, and its a kind of cash which clearly only one game could be worth it
4. GTA ONLINE getting separated from GTA 5
5. SONY deals for GTA5/online
6. Sony selling at least 2 times more copies of GTA5 than xbox.
7. Rockstar owes Sony on game for dropping GTA4 exclusivity and abandoning Agent ?
Do one for the case for COD, please. I don't follow the series, but I feel like we've gotten an AWFUL lot of COD shit for free on PS Plus these last few months.
 
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bitbydeath

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It would be pretty good deal for both. I cant see rockstar losing money for sure on such a deal.
Yeah paying for the entire development would certainly be a no brainer for RockStar since they would literally have nothing to lose. The cherry on top would be if Sony let them use Decima. 🔥
 
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If true, it's sad. That's at least 2-3 AAA games from first-party studios, fully funded. That's a lot of jobs for talented people, 2-3 new IPs, new worlds to visit. I just hope they know what they're doing and that money comes back with a good margin so then they can invest it in actual games. If they don't, fuck their arrogance.
It could be for multiple games. Not necessarily 750 million for one title unless it's something huge like GTA6.
 

zaitsu

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Not even close, if you take GTA V lifetime revenue as basis, you have 6 billion divided by the number of days since release date(17/09/2013)), which is 2517. You get roughly 2.4 million per day, and that includes PlayStation platforms.
And thats the revenue from all platforms so 130 millions of copies. And from that only 9 million is from Xbox one.
So 9 million is 7% of 130 so 7% of 2.5 million is giving us 175k for day of exclusivity of single-player and online. So 750 millions would buy at least 11 years of exclusivity, so yeah whole generation.

750 millions would buy any game console lifetime exclusivity. There is no doubt. Saying that would buy 1 day is just being stupid AF. And some sort of anty-sony fanboism. And also not being good at numbers.
 
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ksdixon

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Does it actually state one game, or could it be something like Sony paying Konami to let Bluepoint make PS5 exclusive games of, say, Castlevania or MGS, whilst Sony Japan Studio does Silent Hill etc.
 
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zaitsu

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Yeah paying for the entire development would certainly be a no brainer for RockStar since they would literally have nothing to lose. The cherry on top would be if Sony let them use Decima. 🔥
I think new version of Rockstar engine made specifically for PS5 and next-gen PC with 5GB/s NVME could be also great.
 
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ksdixon

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750 millions would buy bluepoint, MGS and silent hill pretty easily.
Yeah, I guess you're right. That's an awful lot of money tbh.

And yet... It also seems to occupy a weird spot, where it's so much that it could buy most studios outright, but at the same time not buy long term exclusitivity from the titan games of the industry (cod, fortnite, gta).
 

ksdixon

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I don't know how long ago it was now, but I remember CAPCOM's board of directors saying that they wouldn't auto-block any buyout talks?

But I'm guessing this was near the start of the PS4 gen when SFxTekken was on its arse, and since then Monster Hunter Online, HD ports of RE Zero/Remake 1, and then the two Remakes of 2 and 3 have made bank for them?
 
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zaitsu

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Yeah, I guess you're right. That's an awful lot of money tbh.

And yet... It also seems to occupy a weird spot, where it's so much that it could buy most studios outright, but at the same time not buy long term exclusitivity from the titan games of the industry (cod, fortnite, gta).
It could buy lifetime of one GTA or one COD for sure. But not both in the same time. Of course it depends of how much of revenue is made from microtransactions on other platform.
 
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X-Fighter

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Using numbers is a childish attack, to an engineer? 🤷‍♂️

You obviously missed the reference to MTX.
No, but when someone made a quick back of the envelope calculation based on all platforms, and then saying he is bad at math is.

Not even close, if you take GTA V lifetime revenue as basis, you have 6 billion divided by the number of days since release date(17/09/2013), which is 2517. You get roughly 2.4 million per day, and that includes PlayStation platforms.
You don't look at it over lifetime but the first months, year.

But you guys keep dreaming and hoping (not sure why but Ok...) that gta6 is an exclusive. I'll eat crow if this day actually arrives.
 
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If you remove Microsoft's fees, then 750 million is more than what R* would make from Xbox. And most of those 10 million people will buy GTA6 on playstation anyway. So R* won't loose these sales.

However, I still think this is a BS rumor. I don't trust insiders.
Nevermind, i failed to count MTX and DLC. That makes it difficult to make GTA exclusive forveven a month.
 

Neo Blaster

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You don't look at it over lifetime but the first months, year.
Yes, you look, a platform holder is paying in advance for all revenue the publisher would have with other platform sales during a certain period, it's that simple.

But I think such an amount of money for timed exclusivity is BS fake news too.
 
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ksdixon

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Exactly, that’s what I was referring to. Agent was the game they were meant to get in compensation.
Interesting, I never knew the two were related. Reminds me of something else too..

Wasn't FF 15 originally a PS4 exclusive when it was originally named as "FF 13 Verses whatever", and changed to multiplatform with the namechange to FF15?
 

ksdixon

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For me its pretty clear :

SONY without playstation is pretty much dead.
MS without XBOX will just move on.

Guess who will invest more in gaming division of their company even if Sony has only half of MS cash in hand.
I was under the impression that Sony made their money in life insurance and camera lenses?
 
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