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|OT| Next-Gen PS5 & XSX |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Alex Scott

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I don’t believe the guy, he can argue he’s had legit leaks in the past but they are so vague it’s hard to even to even stick it on him when he’s wrong. Anyways, 750 Million deal, I smell lots of salt, I mean literally no one else has reported or leaked this but somehow a mediocre Playstation centric channel on Youtube with 30 K subs seems to know the inside deals of a billion dollar corporation lol
Agreed.
 
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FunkMiller

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750mil for GTA6 would only get you 1 day of exclusivity
It'd get you more than that. Probably a year.

If GTA 5 has made around six billion in total, that makes about 850 million a year in revenue.

A 750 million money hat from Sony would be enough to guarantee exclusivity for twelve months, I think. Any shortfall from GTA 5's figures would be balanced by the guaranteed upfront income for the studio. Also, that's probably a wider profit to revenue ratio than they'd get otherwise.

I bet this turns out like a classic example of sensationalism from 'leakers' that get people building up the rumour to unrealistic levels (GTA or COD being exclusive) and in reality it turns out they have a 6 month exclusivity deal for Borderlands 4. Or Just Cause 5.
Most probably. Fun to speculate though, innit?
 
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ToadMan

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GTA 5 sold around 10 million on XBOX ONE. It can give you at least console exclusivity. I don't think this is worth it for one game though.
Consider the dlc which dwarfs the base game sales in terms of revenue. That’s what Sony would really being paying for and that’s way beyond even the crazy 750mil figure.

GTA is just too big to be exclusive in any normal sense of the word. Maybe 1 month dlc exclusivity or something like that which would also be a waste of time.
 
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SaucyJack

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It'd get you more than that. Probably a year.

If GTA 5 has made around six billion in total, that makes about 850 million a year in revenue.

A 750 million money hat from Sony would be enough to guarantee exclusivity for twelve months, I think. Any shortfall from GTA 5's figures would be balanced by the guaranteed upfront income for the studio. Also, that's probably a wider profit to revenue ratio than they'd get otherwise.



Most probably. Fun to speculate though, innit?
They would only need to fund the lost Xbox revenue though 😏

Maybe 1/4 of that?
 
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zaitsu

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$750 million would fund production of the entire game, with change.
I think it could be worth one year of exclusivity of GTA6, and since Sony is clearly close with rockstar with GTA5 i can see it happening. But still foxy is shit and probably wont happen. But imagine PS5 sells with one year GTA6 exclusivity. Above the roof...
 

hemo memo

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750mil for GTA6 would only get you 1 day of exclusivity
This “rumor” is so nonsensical and doesn’t make any business or logical sense that it’s not worth the effort and time to detail why it’s so stupid. The best they can get from GTA is a DLC. That’s it. Open your brains people c’mon.
 

SaucyJack

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Not a chance this deal is legit.

But having fun with the hypothetical, $750m probably buys you console exclusivity for the generation, easily.

It completely derisks the game for Take Two as their entire production and marketing budget has now been funded, you still get all your PlayStation revenue anyway. Sony probably don’t worry about PC, which never comes Day 1 anyway.

Of course that hypothetical deal costs Xbox 2.5-3 times as much as the foregone PlayStation revenue is so much higher.
 

FunkMiller

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They would only need to fund the lost Xbox revenue though 😏

Maybe 1/4 of that?
An excellent point! :messenger_beaming: Even if you say that only half of GTA 5's sales were on Sony platforms, that still makes a one year exclusivity deal of 750 million extremely good value for Rockstar. You can start to argue that 750 million could grant an exclusivity deal for much longer than that... if not permanent.

This “rumor” is so nonsensical and doesn’t make any business or logical sense that it’s not worth the effort and time to detail why it’s so stupid. The best they can get from GTA is a DLC. That’s it. Open your brains people c’mon.
I don't think anyone's actually thinking it's a likely proposition, but it's interesting to speculate about it, given the kinds of figures we'd have to be talking to make it happen.
 
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FunkMiller

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Final Fantasy for the entire generation? That amount of money would have to be something very big.
Waaaay bigger than FF. Every single Final Fantasy together has made less than double what GTA 5 has made on its own. 750 million is a colossal amount of money to pay up front for exclusive rights to a video game. As I say, it could only really be GTA, or maybe CoD. Certainly one of the top five selling game series in history.
 
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MastaKiiLA

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And not just Spider-Man of course, but 900 characters including the whole Spider-Man universe - Doc Octopus, Green Goblin, Venom, Morbius, Kraven, Black Cat, Silver Sable - many of whom are getting their own movies.
After another poster mentioned it, I read up a bit more about the Spidey deal. It reads like they only have the film rights. I don't see how or why Marvel would relinquish comic book rights to Sony, as Sony doesn't make comics. It would only make sense to give them rights to the forms of media that Sony actually engages in, otherwise, it's like Marvel just relinquishing one of their strongest properties. They'd have to had been on the verge of bankruptcy for them to give up that much control, and I've not seen the stated anywhere. Every reliable source says it's just the film rights. Game rights were a result of Marvel outsourcing development to Insomniac, and Insomniac choosing Spider-man as their preferred hero to build a game around. That decision might have been driven by Sony's owning of the film rights, but I don't think Sony actually controls how the character is used in games. I'd love to hear otherwise.
 
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SaucyJack

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After another poster mentioned it, I read up a bit more about the Spidey deal. It reads like they only have the film rights. I don't see how or why Marvel would relinquish comic book rights to Sony, as Sony doesn't make comics. It would only make sense to give them rights to the forms of media that Sony actually engages in, otherwise, it's like Marvel just relinquishing one of their strongest properties. They'd have to had been on the verge of bankruptcy for them to give up that much control, and I've not seen the stated anywhere. Every reliable source says it's just the film rights. Game rights were a result of Marvel outsourcing development to Insomniac, and Insomniac choosing Spider-man as their preferred hero to build a game around. That decision might have been driven by Sony's owning of the film rights, but I don't think Sony actually controls how the character is used in games. I'd love to hear otherwise.
They were on the verge of bankruptcy.

It clearly isn’t the comic book rights, without Marvel comics Spider-Man is worthless. But the licensing rights to appear to wider than just film.

And we don’t really know what concessions Sony got for allowing Spidey to feature in the MCU. A deal of some sort was obviously done.
 

SaucyJack

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An excellent point! :messenger_beaming: Even if you say that only half of GTA 5's sales were on Sony platforms, that still makes a one year exclusivity deal of 750 million extremely good value for Rockstar. You can start to argue that 750 million could grant an exclusivity deal for much longer than that... if not permanent.



I don't think anyone's actually thinking it's a likely proposition, but it's interesting to speculate about it, given the kinds of figures we'd have to be talking to make it happen.
A years timed exclusivity would be a fraction of that. Paying so much for so little would be insane, no way Sony cuts such a bad deal.

Of course, R* still owe Sony a game for giving up GTA IV exclusivity.
 
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FunkMiller

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A years timed exclusivity would be a fraction of that. Paying so much for so little would be insane, no way Sony cuts such a bad deal.

Of course, R* still owe Sony a game for giving up GTA IV exclusivity.
Yep. That's why I put in my post that 750 million would arguably be enough for full platform exclusivity.

"Never give it up" like wth is this nonsense.

Let's ask Nintendo to give up on Pokemon and Disney on Star wars while we're at it.
People being angry at Sony about this is pretty dumb. The company they should be mad at is Marvel, for trading the rights to its best character away so very, very badly.
 
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sircaw

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A local pond.
Unforutenly our man Bo_Hazem Bo_Hazem has got himself banned from this channel for 10 days, seems he upset someone here.


He would like to say sorry for what he has done and will use this time for reflection, by spending those days alone in the desert with a herd of camels.

He shall return a much improved man.
 
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SaucyJack

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Yep. That's why I put in my post that 750 million would arguably be enough for full platform exclusivity.
Wasn’t aimed at you in particular, there’s a few posters suggesting 1 year.

But people just need to do the math, it’s obvious that size of deal would have to be for permanent console exclusivity.

1-year timed exclusivity? Maybe $50m.

Still think the whole thing is BS though.
 

Neo Blaster

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If true, it's sad. That's at least 2-3 AAA games from first-party studios, fully funded. That's a lot of jobs for talented people, 2-3 new IPs, new worlds to visit. I just hope they know what they're doing and that money comes back with a good margin so then they can invest it in actual games. If they don't, fuck their arrogance.
Yes, one thing is Sony having some kind of control over a character, but burning all this cash to lock a game PS userbase would play anyway? Just imagine how many first party games bringing much more value could be funded.
 
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DrDamn

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If GTA6 is split like 5 into SP and online components then maybe I could see them having grabbed a one year exclusivity on one or the other.

Otherwise I think a lot of these deals will be more content related than full/timed exclusivity.
 
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GTA 5 sold around 10 million on XBOX ONE. It can give you at least console exclusivity. I don't think this is worth it for one game though.
If you remove Microsoft's fees, then 750 million is more than what R* would make from Xbox. And most of those 10 million people will buy GTA6 on playstation anyway. So R* won't loose these sales.

However, I still think this is a BS rumor. I don't trust insiders.
 
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X-Fighter

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It did, but lifetime revenue is something over six billion, so 750 million would be a reasonable upfront outlay for exclusivity, especially on a dominant platform.
But it's about exclusivity the first few months, not the last months...

That’s retail price, not Take 2’s revenue.
So 40% of that? Then 750 mail gets you max 1 month. That's not even worth it. I'm merely saying that people should temper expectations and this won't be GTA or CoD level of game
 

FunkMiller

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Yeah it seems that way.

I'd even have trouble believing if they had a TOTAL 750 mil in moneyhatting.
Technically possible, given that their profits for Q1 was over a billion. Though talk about putting all your eggs in one basket...
 
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Neo Blaster

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If that number is accurate and it’s really to get exclusivity of an in-development 3rd party game that ordinarily would’ve been multiplat (yeah - a lot of caveats) then the $750m isn’t a development cost.

It’s a “loss of sales” cost on the other platforms. Let’s say it’s for FFXVI - they’re adding up what they think that would have sold on Xbox, Switch if that was a target, and possibly even PC. Then they’ll add some sweetener to that and that’s what Sony would have paid.

The game we’re looking for would probably have sold around $500m on non PS platforms and that’s what we should look for in predicting which game it is. With the additional condition that it could be a smaller game with lifetime exclusivity or a big game with a shorter exclusivity.

For it to be COD, this figure might cover just 6 months of PS exclusivity (and really I think it’s just console exclusivity - ie it would still release day/date with PC). FFXVI this might buy a lifetime exclusivity.
Or maybe 6 months of GTA 6 just to cover Xbox. We know Rockstar never release their games day and date on PC and it usually takes years to arrive on that platform. Switch is a no go so far.
 

Zoro7

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But it's about exclusivity the first few months, not the last months...


So 40% of that? Then 750 mail gets you max 1 month. That's not even worth it. I'm merely saying that people should temper expectations and this won't be GTA or CoD level of game
A game like GTA 6 being exclusive would sell more consoles.
You can’t compare PS4/GTA 5 numbers to PS5/GTA 6. The later would be substantially higher if the game is exclusive.
 

zaitsu

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But it's about exclusivity the first few months, not the last months...


So 40% of that? Then 750 mail gets you max 1 month. That's not even worth it. I'm merely saying that people should temper expectations and this won't be GTA or CoD level of game
On ps4 they've sold 20 milion copies to 9 milion copies on xbox. Playstation market is clearly better for game such a GTA.

9 milx 60 dollars = 540 millions

Thats how much singleplayer liftime GTA6 exclusivity would cost. And i think they are separating online from single in next year.

If rumor is true, that kind of cash would buy them lifetime console exclusivity. I dont think any other game would be worth that kind of cash.
 
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SaucyJack

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But it's about exclusivity the first few months, not the last months...


So 40% of that? Then 750 mail gets you max 1 month. That's not even worth it. I'm merely saying that people should temper expectations and this won't be GTA or CoD level of game
Maths really isn’t your strong suit is it?

Timed exclusivity doesn’t lose you much, if anything, in sales. It only defers them. Even a year's exclusivity would cost a fraction of that sum.

XBO sold about 8 million units of GTA V. So using your 40% - 8,000,000 x $60 x 40% = $192 million. Multiply that up a bit for MTX and even playing with the variables a bit you can see that $750 million EASILY buys console exclusivity for Sony.
 

X-Fighter

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A game like GTA 6 being exclusive would sell more consoles.
You can’t compare PS4/GTA 5 numbers to PS5/GTA 6. The later would be substantially higher if the game is exclusive.
It's not about Sony but about take two and Rockstar. There's no real reason for them to do this.

Maths really isn’t your strong suit is it?

Timed exclusivity doesn’t lose you much, if anything, in sales. It only defers them. Even a year's exclusivity would cost a fraction of that sum.

XBO sold about 8 million units of GTA V. So using your 40% - 8,000,000 x $60 x 40% = $192 million. Multiply that up a bit for MTX and even playing with the variables a bit you can see that $750 million EASILY buys console exclusivity for Sony.
As a reply to your childish attack: I've got a civil engineering degree in computer science 😂

For the rest: I agree, but you are only taking copies into account not gta online revenue
 
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