God Dayumm
Banned
Heat production is a high percentage. Thanks to global warming we will be spending less energy.
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NASA: Earth warming at unprecedented pace, unlikely to stay in Paris T° range
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Heat production is a high percentage. Thanks to global warming we will be spending less energy.
demosthenes
Member
That would be the geo engineering mentioned in the article. New technologies to capture CO2 for example need to be thought of.
this is a goddamn good post and i am ashamed i didnt make it. i was being a little gloomy, but i still feel a lot of the shifts you are talking about arent happening due to a lack of cultural importance. EVs especially, looks at how hard it is to sell people on EV cars. but i think your post is super important in this thread, thanks
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
The planet and the living things on it are pretty fucked at this point.
I'm no scientist but I really feel like we're post the point of no return on this one.
I'm 30 and I'm really not looking forward to the next 50 years. Here's hoping things don't go to shit too quickly. Living in New Orleans means that I'll be the first to feel the effects, both on the rising oceans and the stifling heat.
I think the worst part of all of this is that it's really made me reconsider bringing children into the world. I don't want them burdened with the mess we've made.
I'm no scientist but I really feel like we're post the point of no return on this one.
I'm 30 and I'm really not looking forward to the next 50 years. Here's hoping things don't go to shit too quickly. Living in New Orleans means that I'll be the first to feel the effects, both on the rising oceans and the stifling heat.
I think the worst part of all of this is that it's really made me reconsider bringing children into the world. I don't want them burdened with the mess we've made.
PdotMichael
Banned
We don't need Ev cars which replace gas powered cars but way way less cars. Car culture is one of the worst thing in the western world.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Sunspot activity (or a huge lack thereof) is signalling us actually hitting a mini ice age around 2020 or so, so that will actually delay things quite a bit. When it ends, though, is going to be a problem.
Pops Maellard
Member
Quoted for posterity. Seriously, simple shit to be doing. I irrationally trust/assume that the large majority of GAF already thinks sustainably, but the vast majority of the general public doesn't realize even the basic stuff here is hugely important.
Especially the "have fewer children" bit. It's a touchy subject to bring up with people, but it's a valid conversation.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
A+ postWind and Solar are hitting record lows every year as their installation rates increase. We already have places in the US where wind is cheaper than gas, and solar is cheaper than gas.
Five years time you won't have to be in a unique area to have renewable energy be cheeper than conventional energy. The world is already installing more renewable energy than carbon based, the transition is already happening.
Anyone who says "omg it's tooo laaaaate" just needs to stop posting. Seriously. I take this subject as one of the top two in terms of global issues and how I vote in elections, I tend to try and stay up to date as much as possible. Going into every single thread about this subject isn't making me mad because of whatever news I'm reading, it makes me mad because I see a bunch of apathy from people who clearly just want to react all sad and gloomy because it's easy.
Lets read the thread title. Yes, Earth is warming at unprecedented rates, yea no shit, we've been talking about that for the last two decades. Staying within Paris target range of 1.5C is near impossible with current emission rates. Yea, no shit, that was openly talked about during the negotiations. Without more substantive emission cuts, we will fail to stay under 2C. Yes, once again, these were center point of the Paris talks last year that Paris alone will not solve our issues. These are not "dirty little secrets" that the man doesn't want you to know.
We fucking know this, anyone who spends 15 minutes reading up on the most historic global climate deal will understand what Paris was about. It's not the "OMG WE FIXED EVERYTHING WOOO!" deal, it never was. It was the framework to do something that we should have started 20 years ago, a framework to continuously come back to the table and figure out what each country can do to continue their emissions decrease.
Ten years from now the targets we put out will be obsolete because battery tech + renewable + EV's will be so far ahead that any projection from major energy institutions will be horribly out of date and simply wrong (you know, like how they have been for the last 15 years in terms of cost of Wind/Solar and total amount installed). We take these emission trends and bake in China hitting peak coal in 2020, with 2030 being their peek emission (at best), yet we now know they hit peak coal in 2013 and are having historic cutbacks on coal production and usage. We bake in these trends with horribly conservative estimates on renewable energy, even when we have learning rates putting coal into the danger zone of being too expensive than solar in a decade.
Also I swear to god if I see one more person post that study on how agriculture is somehow 50% of global emissions I'm going to break a fucking gasket.
Yes, this is scary stuff when looking at the numerous consequences of our failure to act, but just going around spreading apathy is literally one of the worst things you could do.
also agriculture accounts for around 15-20% of global emissions iirc, so anyone telling you it's somehow magically half of global emissions are quoting a single study that has been peer reviewed to death and heavily criticized in their methodology
That thread, and article was complete bullshit. I couldn't find a single source they quoted backing up their claim. The only thing I saw was a reference to IEA having an emissions scenario of having 3.5C baked in by 2080 or something. No current emission scenerio has the world hitting 3.5C in 20 years.
No
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...toward-a-mini-ice-age/?utm_term=.4ff3fb6ec3da
Inquisitive_Ghost
Member
Wind and Solar are hitting record lows every year as their installation rates increase. We already have places in the US where wind is cheaper than gas, and solar is cheaper than gas.
Five years time you won't have to be in a unique area to have renewable energy be cheeper than conventional energy. The world is already installing more renewable energy than carbon based, the transition is already happening.
Anyone who says "omg it's tooo laaaaate
Lets read the thread title. Yes, Earth is warming at unprecedented rates, yea no shit, we've been talking about that for the last two decades. Staying within Paris target range of 1.5C is near impossible with current emission rates. Yea, no shit, that was openly talked about during the negotiations. Without more substantive emission cuts, we will fail to stay under 2C. Yes, once again, these were center point of the Paris talks last year that Paris alone will not solve our issues. These are not "dirty little secrets" that the man doesn't want you to know.
We fucking know this, anyone who spends 15 minutes reading up on the most historic global climate deal will understand what Paris was about. It's not the "OMG WE FIXED EVERYTHING WOOO!" deal, it never was. It was the framework to do something that we should have started 20 years ago, a framework to continuously come back to the table and figure out what each country can do to continue their emissions decrease.
Ten years from now the targets we put out will be obsolete because battery tech + renewable + EV's will be so far ahead that any projection from major energy institutions will be horribly out of date and simply wrong (you know, like how they have been for the last 15 years in terms of cost of Wind/Solar and total amount installed). We take these emission trends and bake in China hitting peak coal in 2020, with 2030 being their peek emission (at best), yet we now know they hit peak coal in 2013 and are having historic cutbacks on coal production and usage. We bake in these trends with horribly conservative estimates on renewable energy, even when we have learning rates putting coal into the danger zone of being too expensive than solar in a decade.
Also I swear to god if I see one more person post that study on how agriculture is somehow 50% of global emissions I'm going to break a fucking gasket.
Yes, this is scary stuff when looking at the numerous consequences of our failure to act, but just going around spreading apathy is literally one of the worst things you could do.
also agriculture accounts for around 15-20% of global emissions iirc, so anyone telling you it's somehow magically half of global emissions are quoting a single study that has been peer reviewed to death and heavily criticized in their methodology
That thread, and article was complete bullshit. I couldn't find a single source they quoted backing up their claim. The only thing I saw was a reference to IEA having an emissions scenario of having 3.5C baked in by 2080 or something. No current emission scenerio has the world hitting 3.5C in 20 years.
Thank you for this post. I do what small amount I can to help, and the dark posts in this thread are not helping my severe anxiety on this topic.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
EV's and self driving cars are going to hit mainstream at the same time.
Every city will have fleets of self driving EV's. Cars spend 90% of their life parked, by virtue of having a 24/7 on demand clean transportation system, the world will have less vehicles on the road.
That "mini-ice age" isn't going to happen. The rate of global warming vs. the rate of natural variability of a solar cycle/orbital variation is like dropping a grain of sand in a bucket.
NIMBY isn't the reason why energy producers aren't going for nuclear power. It's because the upfront capital investment for nuclear power is several billions of dollars along with rather expensive maintenance costs down the road. Not to mention that nuclear power has a rather large issue with load balancing -- peak vs non-peak hour energy production -- compared to conventional power plants.
The panels themselves are super cheap. It's the inverter, design/consulting, and energy storage costs that are expensive.
In fact, I would personally say inverter costs are the main problem...
Admiral Woofington
Member
If I have to turn off my delicious a/c so we can live longer then maybe we should go out as a planet violently because hell no we won't go (turn off our a/c)
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I mean do hurricane threads, no where near where you live, frighten you? Because that's likely all you'll see with the increased change it happens to you. The sky isn't going to fall in a day or even you're lifetime
I don't believe it was ever suggested that animal agriculture accounts for 50% of the global emissions - that article is a glimpse into the prolonged effects that the livestock sector has in regards to climate change. Are you annoyed that someone is actually trying to shed light on one of the biggest drivers of climate change; one that many people ignore or forget about.
Animal products are unique in that most of us in our 1st World bubble are 100% in control of our diet and capable of change. It's one of the often ignored areas in which we all can individually change and make a difference.
I mean sure... just like using a bucket of water on the titanic would probably slow down it's sinking a little.
PdotMichael
Banned
That isnt gonna happen for decades.
And producing and moving tons of weight for trivial tasks most of the time is insane.
E-Cat
Member
It was an awesome post, yeah.
I'm not so worried about our technological capabilities as I'm worried about people's general lack of will and/or ignorance.
Luckily, solar, wind and batteries are going crazy right now, people have NO idea what's coming in the next 10-20 years. Eventually, the economics of green energy will win and then everyone will adopt it.
Ramez Naam is an amazing educator in this area, here are a few snippets from his lectures:
The Cost Decline of Solar Power
The Price of Solar Power Will Continue to Fall
The Disruption of the Energy Business
You're right. It's gonna take five years, more like.
I have no interest in adapting to a non meat intensive diet. And no, public transportation is not an option I'd consider. I don't think it is an option at all. I am considering Solaar, but I need to replace the roof first.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Yeah solar is amazing and is moving way, way faster than anyone thought even 2-3 years ago. It's funny, things are going to/already have get to a point where financial intensives on the part of tech and other companies for solar and renewable are going to be bigger market drives than fossil fuel interests.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Every major car manufacturer is preparing for self driving cars becoming a mainland feature in five to six years.
Uber's end goal is a fleet of self driving EV's. In a city, you don't need an EV to travel more than a hundred miles at a time.
You explain to me how in a decade the technology won't be there for mass self driving fleets of EV's?
What are you even talking about with "producing and moving tons of weight for trivial tasks"?
Yet if everyone starting using that bucket of water - if everybody committed to a change - we could make a difference. And we still can. I personally will not sit back and watch our species struggle and struggle until the end. Take every chance you can to make a difference.
Shake Appeal
Member
At this point, I just try not to think about it.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
There is a common number thrown around a lot when talking about agriculture's hand in emissions, and I'm simply putting the foundation down for people to know that the basis of that claim has largely been discredited.
Saying agriculture is the biggest driver of climate change, is simply, wrong. Now you can say it's going to be the most difficult to diminish, and I agree. However we have 80% of global emissions that can be tackled with renewable energy + battery tech/clean transportation.
Not that I want to see meat prices sky rocket. How feasible would it be to place a limit on cattle/methane producing life stock within the next few years. Or, put a limit on how much can be be raised (1/3 or 1/4) of the current/rough totals today?
Setting aside the issue of future lawsuits, claims about infringement of freedoms and rights that would result form drastically decreasing the lifestock supply.
Also, I believe methane traps roughly 100 times more heat than Co2 over a set period of time.
http://www.onegreenplanet.org/animalsandnature/methane-vs-carbon-dioxide-a-greenhouse-gas-showdown/
Either way, Co2 and methane are a problem =/
Setting aside the issue of future lawsuits, claims about infringement of freedoms and rights that would result form drastically decreasing the lifestock supply.
Also, I believe methane traps roughly 100 times more heat than Co2 over a set period of time.
http://www.onegreenplanet.org/animalsandnature/methane-vs-carbon-dioxide-a-greenhouse-gas-showdown/
Either way, Co2 and methane are a problem =/
XOMTOR
Member
I don't believe you. Ten years ago I bought my Civic. The day I drove it off the lot, I told the salesman that it would be my last gas powered vehicle. He laughed. It's been 10 freakin' years and if my Civic were to die tomorrow, I still have no viable options for an EV. Yea, call me a skeptic but every year seems like it's gonna be the year of the EV just like it's gonna be the year of the OLED TV. Still waiting.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
Yep, it's a damn shame. Every electric vehicle on the market is way out of the price range of the average american citizen.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I fail to see how you making a bad prediction is indicitive of lithium ion production costs and tech and overall trendlines.
Nobody is saying that 2016 is the year of the EV... Now the 2017 models are a major step in the direction of long range affordable vehicles, but EVs will start to hit true mainstream costs in a decade or so.
Imperfected
Member
They were big furry white bears whose dick bones fell off, leading to them being bred out of the gene pool by studly grizzly bears with working boners.
In the end, do you actually want to make a difference or do you just want to feel good about yourself?
Because actually making a difference requires more than wishing other people to do things.
maniac-kun
Member
Well in about 1 to 5 years we will have an blue ocean event in the arctic according to scientists and the data. Which means the sea ice of the artic will be melted nearly completly in september. Thats pretty concerning when you think about the methane at the russian seashelf which is only 15 meters deep but holds 1000s of gigatons of methane. And methane is a lot more powerful than co2.
PdotMichael
Banned
Makes one wonder how ten millions of parking EV cars is a step to saving the world.
On the plus side, you and I will be long dead before we see the full consequences wrought by capitalistic greed.
Future generations are undoubtedly fucked, however.
I agree with that, I simply disagree with the idea that, someone alone, will make a difference that way.
I wouldn't complain about change on a national level, I even encourage it at the urns, but I see no point at simply changing my way of life as a single individual while knowing it's effect would be negligible at best.
R10Neymarfan
Member
Go Vegan. Invest and promote lab grown meat. Alternative energy. Other thongs
LegendofJoe
Member
Self-driving cars are going to substantially decrease the amount of cars on the road and in parking lots, it's going to be disruptive in so many ways (most of them good).
It is a very touchy subject, I know from experience. My wife and I have a two year old son and she is desperate for a daughter. I've always wanted a daughter as well, but I can't get past the environmental impact another child will have. And I don't want to adopt because of the expense and difficulty involved. She won't budge so I finally relented a few months ago.
Two is it though, I will get snipped as soon as I'm confident that my 2nd is healthy. If she wants another child down the road we'll either adopt (should have more time and money then) or she'll have to leave me and find someone else.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Still produce CO2 because they have a metabolism.
Everyone except India is. China's getting at it more slowly than others, but they also suffer worse from air pollution (though India's rapidly catching up). In India's case it's because a vast amount of the country still needs electrified and coal is the cheapest way to get there for starter-level countries.
maquiladora
Member
It's too late now to stop it.
China knows this.
China knows this.
KurtSloane
Banned
Humanity will likely survive but the numbers will be greatly diminished.
If we heat the oceans enough to unlock even a fraction of the methane deposits down there then it is goodbye to everyone.
Check out the permian extinction event, triggered by the Siberian traps mass eruption event that heated the oceans enough to release methane deposits frozen at the bottom of the oceans. Only took a 5 degree increase to cause the methane to release.
Only mass extinction event known to have affected insects it was so serious.
If we heat the oceans enough to unlock even a fraction of the methane deposits down there then it is goodbye to everyone.
Check out the permian extinction event, triggered by the Siberian traps mass eruption event that heated the oceans enough to release methane deposits frozen at the bottom of the oceans. Only took a 5 degree increase to cause the methane to release.
Only mass extinction event known to have affected insects it was so serious.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
It's too late now to stop it.
China knows this.
and China just literally had a year of decreased emissions...
Yea, a decade ago they were growing at 10% GDP, those days are over and their coal usage is dropping like a rock.
Red Liquorice
Member
But spending more on AC.
It's too late now to stop it.
China knows this.
Makes one wonder what will happen if the TPP is successful in squeezing out China, egads.
Felix Lighter
Member
I can only imagine how the climate change deniers will be viewed by future generations.
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