Bonsaibäumchen
Member
Don't forget: Wait for the tools!
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Astray
Gold Member
Triangle Strategy was just an off-the-top-of-my-head example, but the big factor in GP day one is that Xbox (so far) doesn't dictate availability on other platforms, so you can have things like Lies of P launching day one on GP while still making that PS4/PS5 bundle of cash. The main issue for MS is that years of subsidizing GP (especially that $1 "loophole" that a trillion dollar company has continued to not address for like.. 3 years now!) has trained their audience to just not buy anything! If nobody buys games on that platform, then 3P companies don't have incentives to keep that audience in mind when planning for their own futures.
Your Netflix example kinda exemplifies my argument, one season of Stranger Things (which initially wasn't guaranteed to make Netflix any money) cost more than what licensing 10 seasons of Friends did back in the day, those Friends seasons did a lot more to grow Netflix numbers and engagement than Stranger Things did imo.
Regarding what you said about this being potentially AOL Time Warner 2.0.. I definitely agree, there's a reason Kotick is trying to get out now, that man has risen to where he is right now because he always got out on top through multiple M&A rounds. He's not leaving Activision behind if he didn't think that his current biz model has peaked.
I think this factor often doesn't get mention when ppl discuss the XBone vs PS4 battle. That gen coincided with Japanese publishers and devs regaining their mojo when it comes to quality of products, the gen before it was largely a dark era for JPN gaming companies where they lost popularity and had to try to adapt to Western gaming tastes, with very mixed results. But by the time PS4 started gaining momentum, it was helped by companies like From Software making hit after hit, Sony even capitalized on it by making Bloodborne with them while Xbox.. Did nothing.
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Mibu no ookami
Member
They do the 1 dollar loophole to keep their MAUs up. This is the only metric they're showing shareholders. They're buying time.
First, this was Stranger Things season 4, so it was as sure a thing as anything on TV. Earlier seasons of Stranger Things wouldn't have been so pricey. Stranger Things puts buts in seats, and they have control of it for the rest of time.
This is also where tv differs from gaming. Except for games like Animal Crossing, most aren't going to stick around playing the same game every day for years like they would watching friends every day on repeat. This is why you can pay for 3rd party tv but gaming doesn't have the same return on investment.
Ironically, Kotick has probably equal chance of being let go day 1 as is does of being put in charge of Xbox Game Studios in place of Spencer.
I don't think Japanese companies getting their "mojo" back was the difference maker for PS4. Most the top selling games came from western studios. I think the difference maker here was Sony's first party offerings, especially out of the gate compared to PS3.
You look at year 2 on PS3 and it had like Drakes Fortune which is easily the worst of the uncharted games. Don't think PS3 hit its stride until 2009 with Uncharted 2. That was 3 whole years later.
In a lot of ways the XSX/S looks like the PS3 but maybe worse out of the gate.
Bragr
Banned
Sure, but this is something completely different entirely, we were talking about the statement you had when you said that Xbox PC doesn't matter.
Astray
Gold Member
I genuinely feel that it was one of the difference makers, even if its significance is secondary.
No one cared if Japanese devs supported the PS3 more than XB360 because the quality of their output was just.. Not very good during that era (Inafune in particular almost fucked Capcom royally through his chase of Western trends), but by the time the PS4 rolled around you had Atlus/From etc all delivering very strong product that might not be chart-topping in the way a COD would be, but still very compelling for the hardcore gamer that would be asked for advice on what console to buy by the more normie mainstream customers.
I feel MS still hasn't found a way to capture that influential segment yet, which they lost with Alway-on DRM bullshit during the XBone era.
Mibu no ookami
Member
Most of the best selling Japanese made ps4 games came out on xbox one as well.
I think ff7 remake was one of the few major outliers.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
The PS5 outsold the xbox series X/S by 2 to 1 in november in the US?? That sounds impossible, where are these numbers?
X-Wing
Member
They only release those numbers if they are good.
3liteDragon
Member
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Holy fook sticks! that is BAD for MS in the US. If that doesnt light a fire under their ass to get games out ASAP then I dont know what will. A huge amount resting on 2023 now.
Didn't realise it was that bad. I guess these numbers are reliable.
Interfectum
Member
It doesn't matter how cheap they make their games or their systems it's not as appealing as they want it to be. The dream of Xbox reaching billions of gamers is not going to happen.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
To add more context to this, this is Xbox's worst performance in the US Holiday season in like the last 15 years. This includes Xbox One's performance, which sold better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 than Xbox Series X and S sold in September - December.
And Xbox Series S was selling at $230. Xbox One was at $399. But they still sold fewer units.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Yeah, no denying any of this. Even from a fan like myself this is abysmal. Like I said, I didn't realize it was that bad. :/
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
No worries. Hopefully if XSX can deliver 3-4 high-quality AAA games this year, things may improve.
But they'll have to steer the ship soon; time is running out for them especially now that Sony has mostly resolved PS5 supply chain issues.
Dick Jones
Gold Member
It can happen but they need to reform their current plan. The current plan involves experienced staff overseeing the studios and it takes time. It was obvious they were in trouble in 2017 and had 3 years to have a great launch. They launched with nothing first party (funny thing is they released games on the Xbox One earlier that year, why didn't they wait on those until Series launch date and release on both Xbone and Series). Don't over promise years ahead of time. Hype for some games has cooled since they were announced.
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Hendrick's
If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
Hyperbole? Those numbers are not bad considering they had no games.
MikeM
Member
Didn’t it almost happen after Xbox One?
solidus12
Member
Yeah, it’s like giving credit to Ken Kutaragi for the PS5 success as a machine.
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jm89
Member
That's one hell of switcheroo
Weren't you folks beating your drums about the value of the series s and gamepass being the big seller? Jumping up and down about pentiment and high is life.
But now AAA exclusives matter.... uh huh.
Hendrick's
If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
But those numbers are not as bad as you are all claiming.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
but Game Pass keeps growing. that is what matters.
MikeM
Member
In a way, he has. Sony learned to use more common components than to over engineer a solution no one needed.
solidus12
Member
It still hurts that we lost the hardware based backwards compatibility that Kutaragi was pushing forward.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
. isn't the cell the main reason why PS3 backward compatibility is fucked?.
yurinka
Member
Yeah, but this is pure PR bullshit typical from MS. They twist the reality cherrypicking data that makes them look good while hiding what doesn't, and mention everything in the way they consider their potential customers will prefer.That was the inherent (common sense) idea, but not what Xbox leadership said. According to Phil, Gamepass also increases sales.
Phil Spencer: Game Pass leads to more game sales
This past weekend's X018 event was, arguably, a two-hour long advertisement for Game Pass, and given what Microsoft gam…www.gamesindustry.biz
In this case, probably a handful indies sold more thanks to getting more exposure in GP (as happened in PS+ with Fall Guys, Rocket League or Stray), and a handful big games maybe got heavily discounted so got more sales due to this and not due to being in GP.
But I highly doubt that to put a game in GP increased its sales in Xbox, because a game sub is like a rent: to have something for cheaper than buying it. So would be rare to rent it and also buy it.
XXL
Member
Having a decline in hardware this early into a generation with the most available AND lowest priced console option is nothing short of disasterous, in my opinion.
Why are people talking about Game Pass growth? Sure it may be growing but they have missed their internal targets 2 years in a row and declining hardware sales (in year 2) means less Game Pass subscribers, so they will probably miss their internal target again this year.
Why are people talking about Game Pass growth? Sure it may be growing but they have missed their internal targets 2 years in a row and declining hardware sales (in year 2) means less Game Pass subscribers, so they will probably miss their internal target again this year.
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TGO
Hype Train conductor. Works harder than it steams.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
For reference --
1. This is Xbox's worst performance in the US in the last 15 years.
2. Xbox is outsold by PS5 by 2:1 in the last 3 months (September, October, November) by nearly 2:1, despite having a $229 console. And US has been Xbox's strongest market, where Xbox-PS5 sales split is usually 1:1.
3. Because of Xbox's performance this quarter, the lifetime-to-date (LTD) console sales split for Xbox is now 2% lower than than it was for Xbox One and PS4. So XBX|S has lost the US market share compared to Xbox One and PS4. This is despite a lower-priced console, Gamepass, Bethesda, and now Actvision.
You do not think these numbers are as bad?
yurinka
Member
Makes sense, I didn't considered it in this way: pretty likely they had limited supply so decided to focus it in the countries where they have more competition from MS, which also are top countries for Sony.
Other countries where Sony always clearly dominated MS would wait more for PS5 supplies without getting an Xbox, since they are Sonyland.
I think the numbers are bad, but we also have to consider that this year Sony (and I assume XBO at the same point) got several major top selling exclusives while MS had a weak year.
So I assume that if in 2023 or 2024 MS starts releasing a constant and frequent output of big exclusives their numbers should improve.
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Bonsaibäumchen
Member
Well to be honest, one would have to look at numbers from other countries to.
Maybe those changed in favor of MS/Xbox.
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solidus12
Member
Yes, but what about PS1 and PS2??
I was referring to Ken’s method of adding parts of legacy hardware in his new consoles.
E.g, PS2 had parts of PS1 hardware for its backwards compatibility and early PS3 models had the Emotion Engine cpu + Graphics Synthesizer gpu in the motherboard.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
isnt the PS5 has something akin to the Cell processor? (that Mark Cerny presentation)
Hendrick's
If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
It's not good, but it's only 3 months. Months where there was zero reason to be excited about Xbox. I'm not as doom and gloom as you all I guess. 2023 is looking very promising for Xbox and that starts this afternoon with the showcase.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
You know me, man. Im a big fan of Xbox. If those numbers are facts then its a rough one for MS in their home country. They are normally close to neck and neck, nearly a 2:1 sales difference in November, which I guess is correct going from the sourses, is pretty damn bad, no?
I'm not saying its like complete doom and gloom. We know the reasons why.
Sony released their biggest games in 2022 and they do seem to be dry until second half of 2023 but Spider Man 2 is coming and thats going to be huge.
MS need to turn it around in this first half and get those games out ASAP, plus have some great surprises for second half and I think they can turn it all around.
diffusionx
Gold Member
How is it impossible, that is the accepted/assumed ratio of PS4 to Xbox One for the entire gen.
BrutalTruth_
Banned
This is the result of the post pandemic boom, didn't they have record profits in 2021?
twilo99
Member
The are going to outperform the global market by about 20 points
PharaoTutAnchAmun
Member
According to MS its growing but the numbers are still in Nadella's office in a closed safe...and Nadella forgot the code to open it...but they are growing...
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Sony actually has a pretty good 2023 lined up already -- even if they don't announce anything new game to be released this year.
- February will have PS VR 2. That'll give them a lot of positive news and mindshare. GT7 in PS VR 2 will particularly make headlines.
- April will have Horizon Burning Shores.
- June will have Final Fantasy XVI
- September will likely have Spider-Man 2 (along with the rumored PS5 Slim likely at a relatively cheaper price point, which will push the Holiday sales once again)
- Helldivers 2 is also scheduled for 2023 internally. They may be targeting November. Unlike the first one, it'll be a big game.
- I'm assuming FFVII Rebirth will be delayed to 2024.
Hogwart's Legacy, although not an exclusive, will also sell bonkers on PlayStation. The game will likely sell 20M+, and I suspect ~10M of those would be on PlayStation. It'll also appeal to casuals and non-gamers, and they'll buy PlayStations just to play Hogwart's Legacy. The same goes for Avatar, which will have PlayStation marketing plastered all over. It'll also be propped up by Avatar 3, the movie.
There's one more piece of the puzzle: The Last of Us Online announcement. The Last of Us HBO is huge. They may not release TLOU Online in 2023, but even if they start talking about it in-depth (which they have confirmed they'll) and start showing the gameplay, people will go crazy and will buy the PS5 in anticipation of that game.
PlayStation is just going to build a lot of momentum and headlines this year.
DarkMage619
$MSFT
When half the game is available for free there is no 'narrative'. The fact remains you don't need Game pass to play the only part of Halo that gets regular updates. The update in March is for the multiplayer, the doom posts for Halo revealed there was no plans for campaign updates. Halo Infinite was not a game designed to push Game pass. The 'narrative' is to ignore games clearly designed to push Game pass like Forza Horizon 5.
You have no idea what MS told teams internally but based on your previous posts it's obvious what 'narrative' you are pushing. Let's see how 'mismanaged' the games look today.
Sony said PS5 had it's best month ever a few weeks ago & Switch is doing even better than PS5 so I would think so.
BrutalTruth_
Banned
I work in a major electronic retail store and we have been getting skids of PS5s since November, but rarely ever get XBX, and when we do it's very little.
Wonder what's going on for them, they shouldn't be having supply issues.
X-Wing
Member
Are you accusing Microsoft of presenting false financial information?
chromatic9
Member
Those Xbox US numbers are incredible considering the discounts, their home ground, the cost of PS5 games, the gamepass narrative and cheap subs, the buying up of major third party publishers.
Then you look at the likely Series X (the PS5 rival) sales and that's just worse again
This 70bn buyout of Activision really does feel like a gross and desperate maneuver.
Then you look at the likely Series X (the PS5 rival) sales and that's just worse again
This 70bn buyout of Activision really does feel like a gross and desperate maneuver.
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Unfortunately, no. Xbox sells roughly 75% of consoles in the US and UK. We have the US data, as shared above.
In the UK, they are pacing behind both Xbox 360 and Xbox One. Xbox Series X|S hasn't hit 2M units in the UK yet even after 115 weeks, while Xbox 360 reached the milestone in 110 weeks and Xbox One hit 2M in 104 weeks.
We also know that they are tracking behind Xbox 360 in Japan.
The rest of the world is extremely minuscule in comparison (< 20%), so it won't have any meaningful effect on the overall numbers -- assuming there even is an increase in the first place.
Mr Moose
Member
Isn't it the 3 biggest months of the year for consoles?
mansoor1980
Gold Member
that cant be true , no way