Wow, I have been following this Microsoft-ABK merger topic for quite some time here on NeoGaf, and reading a lot of comments on here, some of them calm, and others quite heated. Not that I blame you all for that, I can understand why a publisher acquisition of this scale by a platform owner of one of three console makers bring out such intense discussions, and this topic has already hit 400 pages, wow! As for me, I want to share what I think is going to happen, and again this is just my own prediction, but I wanted to share my thoughts now ahead of time since the CMA decision is likely to come sometime next week, and whenever their PF findings are published, this place will be going crazy no matter the results.
Anyhow, my prediction is that the CMA will come to a provisional finding of
approval with divestment of Xbox console hardware, along with a ban on producing future video game hardware.
I think based on the internal confidential documents the CMA has received from Sony, as well as ABK, will have the CMA come to the conclusion that even a 10 year commitment of a behavioral remedy by Microsoft won't be enough for Sony to counter Microsoft with their own alternative to COD. Like, sometimes I'm not sure if people appreciate just how much time, money, and capital is required to make these COD games on an annual basis, because it is quite huge, to be frank. For the most recent Call of Duty game, the 2022 version of Modern Warfare 2, here's a list of all the studios that were needed to help ship this game out the door and into consumers hands in Fall 2022:
"The development was led by Infinity Ward alongside Activision Central Design, Activision Central Tech, Activision Localization Dublin, Activision QA, Activision Shanghai, Beenox, Demonware, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Sledgehammer Games, Toys for Bob and Treyarch." (
Source)
I don't think this list even includes Solid State Studios and Digital Legends Entertainment who work on the COD mobile games. Anyways, the point is, that's a whole lot of studios that were needed to pitch in and help contribute to getting the game up and running on release day in October 2022. And you know what else too, the game still wasn't bug-free and had some issues at launch! I know this because I preordered Modern Warfare 2 and I was playing the game on opening weekend and experienced some of the issues at the time, namely the campaign (primarily one mission, at least for me anyways) frequently crashing, the pinging system on enemies had to be temporarily disabled due to other player being able to make the ping be stuck onto an enemy player for the entire duration of a match, the tuning mechanic for guns had to be disabled, and there wasn't even any barracks nor leaderboard section for online players to view their K/D ratio and other cumulative stats!
So, from Sony's arguments that I'm sure they've been making to regulators, it would be very, very difficult and financially risky for them to scale up the amount of studios necessary to have the labor manpower necessary to provide roughly the same amount of content and a similar release schedule comparable to Activision studios' COD franchise output. And even if Sony put all that time, resources, capital, and money into buying about a dozen studios or so for making a potential COD competitor, there's still no guarantees that it won't just be a major flop on release, and when comparing Sony's theoretical efforts to counter COD to the proven, established production pipeline that Microsoft would have with all these Activision studios from acquiring ABK, I can see Sony's lawyers making a strong case to regulators using their own internal documents + ABK documents to make their case that COD is irreplacable, and indispensable to the PlayStation platform, and that even a 10 year behavioral commitment by Microsoft just simply isn't sufficient because of the sheer size and scale needed in investment to even think about countering the COD franchise, let alone actually see a first-party COD competitor come into fruition.
Lastly, for Microsoft, what would they, and by they I mean Satya Nadella and the board of directors (meaning not Phil Spencer), decide to do if my prediction is the result they got from the CMA, because the Provisional Finding I predicted would essentially force Microsoft to choose between the Xbox hardware division (alongside Xbox Live online infrastructure in all likelihood), or Activision-Blizzard-King. At the end of the day Microsoft wants to make money beyond all else, and the fact of the matter is that Xbox hardware is sold at a loss and is struggling to retain marketshare compared to Sony's PlayStation, if the leaked NPD results and the latest reveal of console hardware-related statistics by both Sony and Microsoft recent earning calls for the previous quarter are any indication.
Meanwhile, Activision-Blizzard-King offers a trove of valuable gaming IPs and productive studios that are both popular and capture people's attention worldwide in COD, Diablo, Overwatch, and of course King with Candy Crush IP in mobile among other ABK properties. When was the last time Xbox had some huge blockbuster game come out as a console exclusive that really grabbed the attention and produced high amount of buzz worldwide beyond just the hardcore Xbox fanbase, I'm thinking maybe Gears of War 3 back in September 2011, that's about a dozen years ago. I know the Forza Horizon series is beloved and well-received by the Xbox fanbase, but I don't think racing games have the ability to really grab worldwide buzz like shooting games and action-adventure games can. Maybe Starfield by Bethesda will be that mind-blowing game that once again directs attention to the Xbox brand. But you know what, I bet that Satya would take a close, sobering look at Starfield, along with the rest of the projects that Xbox first party studios are working on before making any decision if my prediction about the CMA comes true. Especially since, you know, Microsoft has $70 billion on the line here and they'll have to pay out a few billion dollars to ABK if they drop the deal, so yeah Satya and the board should absolutely evaluate Xbox and Phil Spencer's management prior to making a crucial decision if my prediction comes to fruition.
Anyways, that's just me trying my best to read the tea leaves and following the discussion here on NeoGaf about this huge, unprecedented merger attempt in the video games industry, so even if people on here strongly disagree with most/all of what I wrote, I hope I still contributed positively here to this discussion. So I guess right now we're in the calm before the shitstorm that likely arrives sometime next week, courtesy of the CMA. Well, I'll be on here looking forward to the incoming major news either way the CMA PF findings are.