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Opinion News Jim Ryan CEO of SIE expects PS5 to sell more than PS4 in its first year

May 8, 2020
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It will, and in 2021 as well. 2022, 2023, 2024 will be his real test as head of PlayStation. I'm not confident to say the least - BSer.
 
Dec 29, 2018
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As a huge Playstation fan: doubt.

PS4 capitalized on Xbox terrible PR. That isn't happening this time.
PS4 took a few days to sell out.

PS5 sold out within hours. Sold out in 3 hours countrywide in New Zealand with the 2nd wave of shipments sold out as well. Sales reps can't even guarantee there will be enough stock with the 3rd wave of shipments set to hit early next year and expect that to be sold out as well.

Doubt away though. The overwhelming demand for this console says otherwise.
 

ethomaz

is mad because DF didn't do a video on a video of a video of a video on PS5
Mar 19, 2013
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As a huge Playstation fan: doubt.

PS4 capitalized on Xbox terrible PR. That isn't happening this time.
His bet is too obvious and safe.
Everybody knows PS5 will sell considerable better than PS4 at launch.

They are shipping way more units too... near twice.
 
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FunkMiller

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Aug 14, 2014
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Yes, it will, but it probably won’t sell as many as the Ps4 overall. Neither will the Series X/S sell as many as the One. A big change is coming to video gaming. Maybe not in the next two or three years, but cloud streaming is going to have a huge impact on console sales.
 

Arkam

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Jan 21, 2012
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What was the increase in preorders vs PS4? Something like "4 hours to sell as many as they did in four weeks" right? Even if that is not accurate it, it was a clear order of magnitude increase in demand. So predicting more than PS4 the first year is a very reasonable estimate.
 
Mar 17, 2020
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That's pillow talk for investors
Nuh
PS5 is definitely selling faster than PS4.
Consoles and PC gaming are all doing well. The core gaming market is growing rapidly. I haven't seen sales on this scale before. Even Nvidia admitted that they can't keep up with the demand on their new GPUs even though they expected alot and produced more GPUs than ever.
 
Dec 29, 2018
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Yes, it will, but it probably won’t sell as many as the Ps4 overall. Neither will the Series X/S sell as many as the One. A big change is coming to video gaming. Maybe not in the next two or three years, but cloud streaming is going to have a huge impact on console sales.
Sony is carrying over a 100 million + install base with the average games attach rate at 9+ games per console. I doubt these people will just give up the large libraries they have invested into to go into cloud gaming. I seriously doubt that. People are still attracted to physical hardware and the sales numbers for both PS and Xbox will show that.
 

TLZ

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Oct 20, 2015
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Somehow, I doubt. But maybe.
 
Mar 17, 2020
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Yeah he didn't invest in Insomniac or anything...
One good thing about him is that he knows very well how to invest in developers.

It also seems that he restructured studios to be able to pull out games fast. We can see Bluepoint, Insominac and Santa Monica bringing new games / sequel within 2 to 2.5 years. The development cycle during PS4 generation was very long and Sony pulled less games than PS3 ( but definitely higher quality).
 
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hemo memo

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Sep 13, 2011
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People forget that Microsoft last gen really really dropped the ball for a more expensive and forced Kinect always online console. This time they are doing a great job leading to launch with Gamepass. It’s not going to be easy for Sony for sure.
 

freefornow

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Feb 13, 2013
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Expect verb (Think):
to think or believe something will happen, or someone will arrive:

Well, at least there is wriggle room in Jim's statement.
 
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MiguelItUp

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Feb 24, 2015
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I'm sure it will. A whole other generation of folks interested in video games making more money, etc. Those that loved the PS4 will already have their choice made up for them. So it's only going to go up.
 

DrScissorsMD

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Apr 3, 2020
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Yeah probably. As far as comparing to Xbox though, I reckon PS keeps the lead but the gap goes from 1:3 this gen to 1.5:2.
 

Vroadstar

Good chance I'm crying about MS or misquoting people.
Nov 19, 2013
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He knows the numbers so yes I agree with Jimmy, the King will rule yet again
 

LarknThe4th

Member
May 19, 2020
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I dont know, PS4 had more hype

2013 was crazy for Sony, they doled out PR trouncing after trouncing

PS5 has better launch games though, but then again it's more expensive

I'd still bet on the PS4 being ahead, I actually think the PS5 will just fall short of the PS4 for its lifetime as well
 
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Azurro

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Jun 11, 2018
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People forget that Microsoft last gen really really dropped the ball for a more expensive and forced Kinect always online console. This time they are doing a great job leading to launch with Gamepass. It’s not going to be easy for Sony for sure.

This forgets that the Xbox is mostly an American and somewhat a UK brand, while Playstation is global. Even if somehow it sold equally with the PS5 in those two territories, Playstation dominates the rest of the planet. There is no chance.
 

Bryank75

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Jan 12, 2018
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Yeah, they will sell more than PS4. But I wouldn't be so cocky about the whole thing....

PlayStations studios keep delivering every year, however back in 2015-2018 there was great momentum and hype. They had the hype announcements and now they have not really done anything major to refocus all the attention on themselves.

They need to do something major soon or they will just look boring on a company level.

You see a lot of people rejoicing that Xbox bought Bethesda and how it was a bold corporate move and you have to acknowledge that gaming has become like competitive sports to a degree for many people.

Many PS fans want to see Sony do something similar, something exciting to shake things up but it seems to fall on deaf ears and the communication and fan service of last gen doesn't seem to be there in the same way.
 
Apr 27, 2018
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What $500 console has ever sold well, before the price drop?

I guess iPhones do sell a lot but I don't know how he expects it to sell higher units than a cheaper system, I'm just cautiously optimistic.
 

GiJoint

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Apr 5, 2020
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This forgets that the Xbox is mostly an American and somewhat a UK brand, while Playstation is global. Even if somehow it sold equally with the PS5 in those two territories, Playstation dominates the rest of the planet. There is no chance.
Yep it will have a tougher time in the US this time around against Xbox, but you’re right about the brand being more global.
 

tillbot8

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It's all about how much can be made. The thirst for PS4 was nuts if they make more PS5s then naturally a better year will be had. What interests me is how Xbox will do. That is the unknown at the moment, might do great it deserves to!
 

Grinchy

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Coming off of an extremely successful generation where they taught 100M+ consumers that they don't have to question the quality of the library while also having a pretty incredible launch year of titles would make me expect this, too.

Unless the PS5 comes out and is guaranteed to break down like the 360, I don't know how it doesn't achieve better sales than PS4's first year.
 
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thelastword

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Apr 7, 2006
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I have no doubt......Bring the supplies Jim and they will be sold out......Look at the pre-orders, gone in 15 seconds....Got to remake that movie, 60 seconds was too long...
 

Elysion

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Jan 11, 2020
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PlayStations studios keep delivering every year, however back in 2015-2018 there was great momentum and hype. They had the hype announcements and now they have not really done anything major to refocus all the attention on themselves.

If all those games announced for 2021 actually release next year, then the PS5’s first year would be on par with the best years we saw on PS4. And that doesn’t even take into account if there’s more stuff to be announced for 2021, or if PSVR 2 comes out next year. Unlike with its predecessor, the PS5’s first year should live up to the hype.

Here’s my prediction regarding PS5 sales in its first year (and beyond), from another thread:

In the US the PS4 sold 1 million within the first 24 hours after launch (including preorders), which was the most successful launch of a console until that point.

I could see the PS5 easily doubling that number in the US, meaning there‘s gonna be at least 2 million sold PS5s within the first 24 hours in the US. It‘s probably going to sell similarly when it launches in Europe the week after. Then there‘s Japan and the rest of the world… I expect there to be at least 5 million sold PS5s worldwide by the end of November. Since all of the launch shipments will be sold out in November, I expect December to be quite sparse as far as stock is concerned; maybe Sony manages to get another 2 million consoles into the hands of consumers in that month, which means a worldwide sell-through of ~7 million units by the end of the year.

As for next year, if I remember correctly, the PS4 kept selling around 1 million units worldwide per month for most of its first year, despite the lack of games. I expect that the PS5, with its much stronger lineup, will easily surpass that number, though maybe not quite as much as the launch numbers. So let‘s say it sells 1.5 million per month in the first quarter of 2021 (4th quarter of the fiscal year 2020). That would leave us with ~11.5 million sold PS5s by the end of March (in that case I expect a press release from Sony in early March or so when they reach 10 million).

I think that 1.5 million units per month is a realistic prospect for the rest of 2021 (at least until the holidays), which means Sony would sell another ~10.5 million between April and October, leaving them with an install base of ~22 million by the end of October 2021, making the PS5 the fastest selling console ever (a spot previously held by the PS4, I believe).

If the PS5 keeps selling at this rate after 2021 (and possibly more once the price drops), then I expect it to surpass 100 million units within the first five years. However, if the first five years are such a blow-out, then sales will probably decline afterward more quickly than usual for Sony consoles. Overall I expect the PS5 to end up at somewhere between 140 and 150 million units, surpassing the PS4 by 10 to 20 million.
 

Bryank75

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Jan 12, 2018
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If all those games announced for 2021 actually release next year, then the PS5’s first year would be on par with the best years we saw on PS4. And that doesn’t even take into account if there’s more stuff to be announced for 2021, or if PSVR 2 comes out next year. Unlike with its predecessor, the PS5’s first year should live up to the hype.

Here’s my prediction regarding PS5 sales in its first year (and beyond), from another thread:
I think they will have a pro version, that should help sales....
 

imbrock

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Sep 29, 2020
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Well considering Microsoft are starting this gen with zero launch games and basically hoping game pass pays off one day I'd say Sony is in a safe position.

Before people tell me gamepass is already paying off I would like to remind you of the one dollar per month upgrade from gold that everyone is currently on. That's a far cry from having millions of legitimately paying subscribers.

Also Sea of Thieves and Grounded and Flight Simulator don't give me great hopes that more games won't release as early access alphas.