• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
  • The Politics forum has been nuked. Please do not bring political discussion to the rest of the site, or you will be removed. Thanks.

Intelol confirms Alder Lake Desktop (10nm) in 2H 2021; 7nm delayed to 2023; AMD shares soar 16%

Insane Metal

Member
Mar 11, 2006
26,996
21,979
2,180
Br
In its latest earnings presentation, Intel has revealed its plans to launch the first 10nm Desktop CPU family, codenamed Alder Lake in the second half of 2021. At the same time, Intel has confirmed the delay of its entire 7nm product portfolio, shifting by at least 6 months and a 12-month delay of the 7nm process yield.

Intel Alder Lake 10nm Desktop CPUs Confirmed For 2H 2021 While 7nm (Yield) Delayed Till 2023
Intel has confirmed within its presentation that the Intel Alder Lake line of CPUs will be based on the company's brand new 10nm process node and will be the first desktop lineup to make use of the process node. The lineup is expected in the second half of 2021 and will be succeeding its 11th Generation Rocket Lake CPUs that are expected to arrive by the end of this year or early next year.




AMD (NASDAQ:AMD 69.4 16.50%) has emerged as the biggest winner from Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC 50.625 -16.18%) massive cock-up yesterday, further cementing its status of a rising challenger. As an illustration, AMD shares are up 16.27 percent, trading at $69.26 price level, as of 14:50 ET. Should AMD manage to close near this point, it will have formed a fresh all-time high.

So, how did AMD receive such a boost? The saga began yesterday when Intel revealed as part of its Q2 2020 earnings:

“The company's 7nm-based CPU product timing is shifting approximately six months relative to prior expectations. The primary driver is the yield of Intel's 7nm process, which based on recent data, is now trending approximately twelve months behind the company's internal target.”















Damn, Intel keeps failing on those nodes. I mean, we all know those CPUs will be really fast, but damn.
 
Dec 14, 2008
34,010
2,652
1,360
If Nvidia gets ARM, they win the post-x86 world.

The world is finally going to start transitioning away from x86 this decade. Apple Silicon in Macs will be the beginning, but Qualcomm are garbage and can't compete. Nvidia on the other hand, they have a chance at beating Apple in ARM architecture design.
 
Last edited:

Insane Metal

Member
Mar 11, 2006
26,996
21,979
2,180
Br
If Nvidia gets ARM, they win the post-x86 world.

The world is finally going to start transitioning away from x86 this decade. Apple Silicon in Macs will be the beginning, but Qualcomm are garbage and can't compete. Nvidia on the other hand, they have a chance at beating Apple in ARM architecture design.
Are you serious? Qualcomm's latest CPUs were pretty darn good.

Also, on topic:


Lol.

Uh oh:

 
Last edited:

Insane Metal

Member
Mar 11, 2006
26,996
21,979
2,180
Br
In the flaming wreckage of the Q2/2020 Intel analyst call, did the company really come clean on 7nm? SemiAccurate thinks they didn’t, they just set the stage for the future delays and worse problems.

In the Q2/2020 analyst call here, Intel announced that the 7nm process would be delayed by 12 months with the first devices coming out 6 months after initially planned. The first 7nm chips, client not datacenter now, are officially set for late 2022 or early 2023. Technically this is within 12 months or so from the Q4/21 date that Bob Swan gave on the Q1/2020 analyst call but far more than that from the early 2021 dates they have been promising for the past year or more. Is this 12 months of delay? Does Intel believe those dates internally?

Then we come to the question of how a process can be delayed by 12 months and the products only slip by 6 months. This was officially explained by a, “buffer in the planning process” which sounds really good, doesn’t it? If you understand what this really means, things aren’t so rosy. When a new product comes out, especially one on a new process, initial yields are low and wafer starts ramp slowly so as to not waste money as the learning curve is climbed. This is quite normal.

So a new chip might come out on day 1 but the numbers will be really small, not large enough for any OEM to launch a real product line from, but enough for Intel to claim a launch and shipments for revenue. Remember what Intel did when they announced 10nm shipments for revenue? Go back and check the wording on that and compare it to what really shipped and when.

Back to 7nm, these early parts that work are warehoused and once there is both sufficient volume to meet initial demand and sufficiently high wafer throughput to keep demand sated, you launch the product officially. OEMs can make and sell from day 1 and shortages are not an issue. Any guesses how long this ramp and stockpile process usually takes on a new process? Hint: About 6 months historically.

So what Intel is saying with this buffer line that sounds really good on the surface is meant to be something like, “we are really good at planning and minimize any delays through good practice”. What they are actually saying is, “We are screwed and are going to paper launch 7nm before it is ready and before we can provide volume to meet public statements we made earlier. Don’t expect real volumes for 6 months or more after the launch.”. That one doesn’t sound so good now does it? Now do you understand the wording used, and how they got their magic buffer? And does that clue you in to what is happening here too?

But now we get to the multi-billion dollar question, did Intel actually come clean on the call today or is it just a setup for future problems? Is today’s ‘contingency plans’ actually a contingency or are they set and are nothing more than plausible deniability so they can say, “We told you this might happen” on a future call? And does Intel’s internal messaging on 7nm delays match their external messaging on 7nm delays? SemiAccurate looks at some relevant data points.


Goddamn that's not looking good for Intel.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PSlayer

mango drank

Member
May 12, 2009
1,645
2,083
1,325
I don't remember where I heard it, but supposedly there was a big brain drain at Intel starting 10 years or so ago, where a lot of the higher-ups--who were technical people and knew what they were doing--were either fired or left the company, and were steadily replaced with finance people and marketing people, which was presented as one of the major reasons for the company's decline.
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: Insane Metal

888

Member
Nov 10, 2013
6,369
5,180
1,035
Amd has won me over. I’m a very long time Intel guy and I currently have a 9700k, 8700k, 4670k and two 2400s running in the house at the moment. Just built a 3700x system. The reasons to go Intel just keep shrinking.
 
  • Praise the Sun
Reactions: Insane Metal

JonnyMP3

Member
May 31, 2020
1,657
5,261
410
I had read that Intel were struggling with 7nm about a year ago. The fact that the road map has been delayed to 2023 is nuts.
 
  • Fire
Reactions: Insane Metal

fourfourtwo

Neo Member
Jun 15, 2017
37
49
225
I don't remember where I heard it, but supposedly there was a big brain drain at Intel starting 10 years or so ago, where a lot of the higher-ups--who were technical people and knew what they were doing--were either fired or left the company, and were steadily replaced with finance people and marketing people, which was presented as one of the major reasons for the company's decline.

At least according to Linus from Linus Tech Tips, he still thinks they're in a good chance of clawing back the mantle of best CPU designer. The sheer size of Intel means they dwarf AMD, and they have money to blow on intensive R&D until they catch up.

(Tinfoil hat on) Plus the US government would probably intervene in some sort of sabotage if it ever came down to the situation where AMD could irreversibly cripple Intel and there's a situation where they have 95% market share our something - it's already known that they can infiltrate Taiwanese tech companie to steal digital certificates.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mango drank

GRIEVEZ

Member
May 22, 2020
208
691
265



















Damn, Intel keeps failing on those nodes. I mean, we all know those CPUs will be really fast, but damn.
Fml I sold a week ago. :/

I did make some money... but damnit
 
  • Fire
Reactions: Insane Metal

LordOfChaos

Member
Mar 31, 2014
12,148
7,743
985
Fml I sold a week ago. :/

I did make some money... but damnit

I went with the buy the people making the shovels in the goldrush approach and went balls deep on TSMC a while ago...This went better than I could have imagined. Up 11% just today.

Even Intels GPGPU will be using an outside fab. Apple, AMD, partial Nvidia, some Intel, doesn't matter who wins, it's hard to see TSMC not continue winning. Sammy 8nm is ok.
 

Paracelsus

Member
Jun 24, 2007
10,112
2,512
1,510
Why in the world is it in the US government's best interest to do that?

Because AMD released XT to raise prices of Zen 2 back to launch so they can bleed people dry with Zen 3, and that's after one single really successful processor launch.
 
Last edited:
  • LOL
Reactions: PhoenixTank

Rbk_3

Member
Nov 20, 2013
1,910
724
710
I have a 9900KS but it’s starting to look like I am going AMD next time
 
Last edited:

SantaC

Member
Jun 11, 2004
22,133
5,440
2,055
Because AMD released XT to raise prices of Zen 2 back to launch so they can bleed people dry with Zen 3, and that's after one single really successful processor launch.
umm zen 2 was already cheaper then intels offerings. Remember when their 8 core cpu (6900k) cost you $1200
 
Last edited:

fourfourtwo

Neo Member
Jun 15, 2017
37
49
225
Why in the world is it in the US government's best interest to do that?

The US govt. has spied on the communications of heads of state around the world and passed on the information to their trade departments. They would never not allow a massive US corporation fail in a strategically important market that helps in intelligence sharing.

Not that it'll come to that, Intel have some seriously deep pockets.
 

PhoenixTank

Member
Jul 13, 2017
1,487
1,688
745
I summon Leonidas Leonidas in attack position.
You've made a grave mistake ~Fake: You've activated my trap card this is a duplicate thread:
Great news for gamer's hoping to get higher than Skylake gaming performance. H2 2021 is actually earlier than many speculated.

Maybe I can finally retire my Sky-lake derived gaming rig after years of exquisite gaming performance.

Alder Lake (Golden Cove) is rumored to improve IPC by 50%.



I wonder where this puts Rocket Lake. Will Intel launch Rocket Lake late this year or will they launch two desktop CPU architectures in 2021?

At any rate, I'm glad that Skylake might finally be challenged in gaming performance.
From
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: Insane Metal

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
Jun 26, 2007
46,321
19,338
1,910
Best Coast
The US govt. has spied on the communications of heads of state around the world and passed on the information to their trade departments. They would never not allow a massive US corporation fail in a strategically important market that helps in intelligence sharing.

Not that it'll come to that, Intel have some seriously deep pockets.
I don't see how sabatoging another massive US corporation helps things.
 

Insane Metal

Member
Mar 11, 2006
26,996
21,979
2,180
Br
You've made a grave mistake ~Fake: You've activated my trap card this is a duplicate thread:

From
Sorry, didn't see it. Fortunately this one has more posts tho? Maybe a mod could join the thread IDK.

Anyway seeing these news as positive.... yikes
 

bohrdom

Banned
Mar 19, 2020
246
258
250
Intel's considering outsourcing 7nm to TSMC. I never thought I'd see this day.

Also it's not good for the market if the entire world relies on one company to provide the cutting edge in fab tech.
 

PhoenixTank

Member
Jul 13, 2017
1,487
1,688
745
Sorry, didn't see it. Fortunately this one has more posts tho? Maybe a mod could join the thread IDK.

Anyway seeing these news as positive.... yikes
Wouldn't fret about it. As you say, more posts here. I swear we need a TechGAF subforum or something so posts like this don't get buried so fast, though.

Definitely not positive news, but he is right to point out Rocket Lake as it is mostly getting left out of the discussion. I really want to see what compromises have and haven't been made to pull a new arch back onto 14nm.
 
Dec 14, 2008
34,010
2,652
1,360
Are you serious? Qualcomm's latest CPUs were pretty darn good.

I am dead serious. Apple A12 and A13 Bionic run circles around anything Qualcomm has to offer. One of the biggest problems with the Surface Pro X (the Windows on ARM Surface) is that the Qualcomm processor it uses is just so weak.

No one imagines anything Qualcomm makes in a credible desktop or laptop. Meanwhile Apple's Developer Transition Kits they are shipping to developers today to help them get code up and running and ready for the Apple Silicon Mac changeover use the same Apple A12Z Bionic SoC in the current 2020 iPad Pro. A fucking iPad processor is already good enough to start development transitioning, the full-blown Apple Silicon in the first ARM Macs is probably going to outperform Intel Macs at the same power envelope, and will be able to use far less power when not running full-tilt enabling amazing battery life for general use.
 

longdi

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
8,933
6,714
1,890
Told you all to scoop some AMD stocks earlier. Basically series x and ps5 are fully paid for me, whatever their MSRP will be:messenger_peace:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Neferlotus

TheContact

Member
Jan 22, 2016
6,702
6,431
860
looks like this might be dropping in sept



Intel CPU FamilyProcessor ProcessProcessors Cores (Max)TDPsPlatform ChipsetPlatformMemory SupportPCIe SupportLaunch
Sandy Bridge (2nd Gen)32nm4/835-95W6-SeriesLGA 1155DDR3PCIe Gen 2.02011
Ivy Bridge (3rd Gen)22nm4/835-77W7-SeriesLGA 1155DDR3PCIe Gen 3.02012
Haswell (4th Gen)22nm4/835-84W8-SeriesLGA 1150DDR3PCIe Gen 3.02013-2014
Broadwell (5th Gen)14nm4/865-65W9-SeriesLGA 1150DDR3PCIe Gen 3.02015
Skylake (6th Gen)14nm4/835-91W100-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02015
Kaby Lake (7th Gen)14nm4/835-91W200-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02017
Coffee Lake (8th Gen)14nm6/1235-95W300-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02017
Coffee Lake (9th Gen)14nm8/1635-95W300-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02018
Comet Lake (10th Gen)14nm10/2035-125W400-SeriesLGA 1200DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02020
Rocket Lake (11th Gen)14nm8/16TBA500-SeriesLGA 1200DDR4PCIe Gen 4.02021
Alder Lake (12th Gen)10nm16/24?TBA600 Series?LGA 1700DDR5PCIe Gen 5.0?2021
Meteor Lake (13th Gen)7nm?TBATBA700 Series?LGA 1700DDR5PCIe Gen 5.0?2022?
Lunar Lake (14th Gen)TBATBATBA800 Series?TBADDR5PCIe Gen 5.0?2023?
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Jan 20, 2014
12,282
8,073
1,035
looks like this might be dropping in sept



Intel CPU FamilyProcessor ProcessProcessors Cores (Max)TDPsPlatform ChipsetPlatformMemory SupportPCIe SupportLaunch
Sandy Bridge (2nd Gen)32nm4/835-95W6-SeriesLGA 1155DDR3PCIe Gen 2.02011
Ivy Bridge (3rd Gen)22nm4/835-77W7-SeriesLGA 1155DDR3PCIe Gen 3.02012
Haswell (4th Gen)22nm4/835-84W8-SeriesLGA 1150DDR3PCIe Gen 3.02013-2014
Broadwell (5th Gen)14nm4/865-65W9-SeriesLGA 1150DDR3PCIe Gen 3.02015
Skylake (6th Gen)14nm4/835-91W100-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02015
Kaby Lake (7th Gen)14nm4/835-91W200-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02017
Coffee Lake (8th Gen)14nm6/1235-95W300-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02017
Coffee Lake (9th Gen)14nm8/1635-95W300-SeriesLGA 1151DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02018
Comet Lake (10th Gen)14nm10/2035-125W400-SeriesLGA 1200DDR4PCIe Gen 3.02020
Rocket Lake (11th Gen)14nm8/16TBA500-SeriesLGA 1200DDR4PCIe Gen 4.02021
Alder Lake (12th Gen)10nm16/24?TBA600 Series?LGA 1700DDR5PCIe Gen 5.0?2021
Meteor Lake (13th Gen)7nm?TBATBA700 Series?LGA 1700DDR5PCIe Gen 5.0?2022?
Lunar Lake (14th Gen)TBATBATBA800 Series?TBADDR5PCIe Gen 5.0?2023?
10 nm is a myth at this point. I won't believe it will happen until it happens.
 
  • Praise the Sun
Reactions: Bitmap Frogs

TheContact

Member
Jan 22, 2016
6,702
6,431
860
10 nm is a myth at this point. I won't believe it will happen until it happens.

i don't think it's a myth?

Intel's announcement today that its 7nm process will be delayed until late 2022 or early 2023 sent shockwaves through the industry, but the company also revealed that its first 10nm CPUs for the desktop won't come to market until the second half of 2021.

 

x@3f*oo_e!

Member
Dec 13, 2020
497
390
255
They could end up like IBM at this point, massively profitable but selling primarily to business and corporations who value service and 6N reliability over value_for_money and cutting edge.

IBM makes $13billion on $77B revenue (2019, wikipedia) - same revenue as Intel but around 2/3 the profit. Still numbers to be envied. They haven't sold a PC, desktop or consumer chip in aeons.

Intel should be a solid investment for long term investers (do they exist anymore?) , even more so after the panicked drop it's share price.

It's not inconceivable that they cease to be a player in desktop PC, or even spin that part of as subsidiary to their main earning business (servers, services)

[edit = you can even draw parallels between Intel's troubled foundry business and Global Foundries, which is partly ex-IBM property ...]
 
Last edited:

martino

Member
Apr 25, 2013
6,901
4,897
810
France
was the "intelol intentionnal" ? because it spoiled the whole story /jk
 
Last edited:

johntown

Banned
Dec 27, 2010
3,761
2,393
945
East Coast
AMD is doing better with CPU's that much is clear.

When it comes to gaming though how does the 10900k compete and even do better than some AMD CPU's in the gaming sphere? Why do people say the 10900k is one of the best CPU's for gaming? If Intel is dead and irrelevant as some ppl seem to suggest.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: poodaddy

T8SC

Member
Jun 22, 2013
2,779
5,249
835
Maybe it's time to buy a new CPU, I always buy when AMD are on top, my current desktop CPU is a Thoroughbred XP2200+, rocking that 2002 architecture.