Phil Spencer has repeatedly said the Microsoft philosophy for first party is cross gen, and they have a cross gen strategy going forward. You don’t think third party developers would have picked up on that? Or that Sony wouldn’t use it as leverage?
MS's limited cross-gen 1st-party approach has no bearing on what 3rd-parties do WRT having their games go into timed exclusivity deals deals. For one, they aren't forcing 3rd-parties to do cross-gen.
Anyway, about Matt's comments (the guy who actually spoke of the rumors, Imran, also posted in that thread)...I guess we'll just have to wait and see to what scale and degree their purchases were. One thing they've made clear is that these weren't necessarily offers exclusive to Sony, though there's the likelihood Sony may've gotten a lower price on some due to marketshare advantage.
Regardless, even entertaining the possibility Sony may've locked up timed exclusivity of big AAA games like FFXVI or GTA6 (fucking
GTA6!!!), that's
extremely dangerous for MS to have let happen.
Pay the higher prices if you must, you don't let your competitor buy timed exclusivity on an endgame release like GTA6!!!!
I have to wonder if Microsoft decided to prioritize quantity in their timed exclusivity/console exclusivity pursuits as a means of "filling up" Gamepass. If so...I don't know if that is the best decision. I know they have a long-term goal with Gamepass, but they have to cover some of the short-term as well. They still need those massive "impact" AAA 3rd-party timed exclusives to rile up swells of attention, the way only massive AAA title with huge brand recognition can. Even if they can't get those games day-and-date with Gamepass, simply having that type of title on their platform as a timed exclusive benefits the entire ecosystem, including Gamepass, so there's no reason to be stingy and refuse going for those kind of deals.
It would be understandable of MS to forgo trying to secure massive 3rd-party AAA timed exclusives if their 1st party were ready to roll out from the beginning and of large enough stature to really demand the attention of the masses.
Unfortunately, the one big AAA they showed off, Halo Infinite, had a somewhat lukewarm reception outside of the hardcore Halo fanbase, and most of their other 1st party games specifically designed with next-gen as the target, are at least two years away going by the amount of CG trailers for them and some like Everwild still experimenting with their gameplay concepts.
So that's going to leave a gap for at least the first year of them relying on moreso mid-tier and modestly-budgeted indie 3rd-party timed exclusives, and cross-gen 1st party with enhanced effects for the next-gen Series systems, along with typical 3rd-party support. Which is a good strategy in isolation, but then you've got Sony who are already pushing ahead with next-gen only 1st party in the first year, a slightly larger 3rd-party pool of support, some similar timed exclusives of mid-tier and indie 3rd parties as MS, and (very likely) timed exclusives of MASSIVE 3rd-party AAA game content or games outright.
It's the last part that could make the
biggest difference because, again, we're potentially looking at titles like FFXVI, GTA6, etc. Despite my own feelings on most types of moneyhats, MS as a business should
absolutely be looking into securing these types of deals. The fact they have marketing rights (at least in certain regions) for games like Cyberpunk and Elden Ring, yet most likely don't have any timed exclusive content or game rights to those, is a bit shocking. They had to of been aware of Sony's strategy in this regard at least partially, and know that simply trying to fill out Gamepass with a quantity of quality content is
not enough to draw away attention from a competitor doing major 3rd-party AAA exclusivity deals, especially when said competitor is arguably at their strongest heading into a new gen as they were going from PS1 to PS2 (and in fact, they are arguably stronger
now than they were
then).
MS,
seriously consider arranging these kind of megaton timed exclusive deals with 3rd-party games, never mind how much it'll cost and never mind if you can't get the game on Gamepass, either. Because as fun as titles like Tell Me Why and As Dusk Falls, Gunk etc. will likely be....they are simply not on the same level of a FFXVI or especially a GTA6 in terms of allure, brand loyalty, and
sheer commanding presence/attention they'd bring to your platform/ecosystem. That's just a 100% fact.