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Opinion Clickbait Cringe Hypothetical: Could Amazon or Microsoft end the console industry?

Alright

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I’m of the opinion that gamespass is unsustainable. If Netflix with its 10 of millions of viewers is barely profitable I have no idea how a gaming Netflix service that spends money with reckless abandon can in anyway be sustainable. Also keep in mind Netflix was the only service like it’s kind for awhile. It’s only recently that Amazon and Disney got serious, which means less market share for Netflix and more money spent to secure content. What happens if/when Sony makes a game pass service and it’s actually somewhat good? Also Games take longer and more expensive to make than a tv show or movie.

My fear and concern is that MS will continue its shopping spree of studios and publishers of beloved franchises then in 4-5 years MS reviews their strategy and wonders why 10s of billions of dollars was spent with little to nothing to show for and start to wind down their games studios.
There is a way to make Gamepass sustainable but saying it gets you branded as a raving mad Sony pony on copium.

Microsoft releases Beth games multiplat. free for xbox users £70 for PS5 users. They recoup money from the acquisition and the better Sony do, the better Microsoft does.

To me it makes perfect sense, to others "it will never happen nuh uh Phil said"
 
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ZywyPL

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Well, in the distant future, when there will be little to no difference between playing on a local device vs streaming, I think gaming will be reduced to just an app on your TV/smartphone/tablet/laptop/PC, just like YT, FB, IG, Netflix, Spotify etc. are available literally everywhere. There won't be any Playstation or Xbox consoles, but PSNow and GamePass instead. Which means there still will be dedicated warriors, fighting over which service is better, because some things just never change.
 

Dabaus

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That's what my guess is.

Satya is currently supporting the Gamepass strategy as of now because his income increases if GP subscription increases. Even if he sticks with that, what's the possibility that the next CEO or CFO will also stick with a strategy that does not give them any profit?

Here is the thing: Bethesda acquisition was the biggest bombshell announcement before current-gen launched last year. That was supposed to be the defining factor b/w Xbox X|S and PS5. While these are very early days and anything can happen down the road, early signs are not looking as positive for Xbox as MS would have hoped for.

PS5 is still outselling XSX|S pretty much in every single part of the world. Xbox's efforts to spend so much money on Japan isn't working either. Gamepass subscribers have increased, but the goal is still so far away. Most importantly, Xbox big games are still at least 2-3 years away. By that time, PS5 will have Horizon FW, God of War Ragnarok, Spider-Man 2, and more. PlayStation movies and TV shows will also roll in to create unprecedented level of brand awareness and market share.

Then PS5 will also have PSVR2 (which I believe will be a game changer).

The next Elder Scrolls may be a huge win for Xbox when it releases, but it's still 5+ years away. This generation will be ending by then. Won't MS look back and see what they achieved after betting on this new strategy? And what PlayStation achieved without incurring so much cost or betting on a risky strategy that raked them billion of $ in loss.

I'm sure there will be a reassessment.
You know it’s funny they say console sales don’t matter and Microsoft doesn’t care about sales but the zenimax purchase was announced the day before or the day of (can’t remember) series S/X preorders.
And yes they’re already being outsold worldwide, no software is on the horizon to save them anytime soon besides maybe halo of it’s good. Maybe we just have to wait until the end of the generation to see what the end game for them is in the meantime I hope no more beloved studios or publishers are gobbled up.
 
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JCK75

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A year ago I'd laugh at the idea, but if someone can start playing Series X games on any device right now when you can't get a PS5 or Series X there is potential.
The lack of supply on these nextgen consoles is horrible.
 
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Clear

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There is a way to make Gamepass sustainable but saying it gets you branded as a raving mad Sony pony on copium.

Microsoft releases Beth games multiplat. free for xbox users £70 for PS5 users. They recoup money from the acquisition and the better Sony do, the better Microsoft does.

To me it makes perfect sense, to others "it will never happen nuh uh Phil said"

The fundamental problem with the taking a formerly multi-platform publisher/developer and making it exclusively first-party is that although in so doing you make your ecosystem look more attractive, it shrinks addressable market and lowers demand.

They aren't going to sell more units, especially when the exclusive platform has a minority share in the marketplace.

Sure they can write-off these losses, but why would they want to do that and for how long?

From a pure business standpoint their goal is to increase platform revenue, and that's about maximizing profitability as much as popularity. Losing money to pressure the competition is not a viable long-term strategy.
 

Alright

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The fundamental problem with the taking a formerly multi-platform publisher/developer and making it exclusively first-party is that although in so doing you make your ecosystem look more attractive, it shrinks addressable market and lowers demand.

They aren't going to sell more units, especially when the exclusive platform has a minority share in the marketplace.

Sure they can write-off these losses, but why would they want to do that and for how long?

From a pure business standpoint their goal is to increase platform revenue, and that's about maximizing profitability as much as popularity. Losing money to pressure the competition is not a viable long-term strategy.
I don't understand this post?

All content downloaded from PS5 for Beth games would come from Azure servers, which is a win for MS. Xbox looks more attractive and GP becomes a must (and allows MS to nudge the price up slightly) while recouping the losses by charging the competition. In effect, Sony would pay for a % of the Beth deal, while Microsoft reap all of the rewards.

IIRC Beth games sold better on 360 vs PS3 and i wouldn't be surprised if the same is true this time around (% wise). If Microsoft and Sony each sell 100 million consoles, why would MS leave a big chunk of change on the table?

Hell, MS could use that chunk of change to buy more studios and do the same.

In effect, this is the door creaking open to allow Xbox an escape plan; be a 3rd party publisher and put GP on Sony/everything. IF it needs an escape plan.
 

Inviusx

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Amazon is a joke. They have spent the last 5 years trying to buy their way into the industry and have been met with nothing but failure.

Same goes with Google.
 
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Menzies

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You know it’s funny they say console sales don’t matter and Microsoft doesn’t care about sales but the zenimax purchase was announced the day before or the day of (can’t remember) series S/X preorders.
And yes they’re already being outsold worldwide, no software is on the horizon to save them anytime soon besides maybe halo of it’s good. Maybe we just have to wait until the end of the generation to see what the end game for them is in the meantime I hope no more beloved studios or publishers are gobbled up.
Microsoft would absolutely have some internal KPI's and metrics for where they want to see their console sales.

Do they realize that with their current strategy (of putting their entire games line-up on PC and streaming) sabotages any chance of selling more hardware than Sony? Absolutely.

Do they care? No.

Why? Because the Microsoft vision is about 'anywhere, anytime, any device'.

Does Microsoft need saving?
 

Foorbits

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I have a feeling Apple will be in this conversation very soon. Their games division is definitely learning from Apple Arcade and it's getting better by the week. They clearly have aspirations to go further I think it's just a matter of the top execs green lighting Apple's full invasion into the console space.
 
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Heisenberg007

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You know it’s funny they say console sales don’t matter and Microsoft doesn’t care about sales but the zenimax purchase was announced the day before or the day of (can’t remember) series S/X preorders.
And yes they’re already being outsold worldwide, no software is on the horizon to save them anytime soon besides maybe halo of it’s good. Maybe we just have to wait until the end of the generation to see what the end game for them is in the meantime I hope no more beloved studios or publishers are gobbled up.
Yeah. Besides, they locked up Bethesda content (which used to sell most on PlayStation, IIRC). Now their games will only be available on Xbox and PC, and both Xbox and PC gamers will have the option of picking those games up on Gamepass day one.

I don't think how that will help Bethesda financially without MS funding tons of money in there constantly.

There is a chance, albeit slight as of now, that some of the studios MS bought might end up on the free market again.
 

Croatoan

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Consoles of the future will be like DVD players of the past and each device will be able to launch Sony gameplass, Nintendo game pass, and xbox gamepass (among others). Sony, MS and Nintendo will still make their own devices but there will be no more game exclusivity because they make more money offering their services to everyone.

Sony games on PC is just the start of the floodgates opening. Gaming is about to get a whole lot better without the console war exclusive garbage.
BTW, Xbox is trying to get gamepass on PS5 already. The bethesda deal is partially about "trojan horsing" that.
 
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Dabaus

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Yeah. Besides, they locked up Bethesda content (which used to sell most on PlayStation, IIRC). Now their games will only be available on Xbox and PC, and both Xbox and PC gamers will have the option of picking those games up on Gamepass day one.

I don't think how that will help Bethesda financially without MS funding tons of money in there constantly.

There is a chance, albeit slight as of now, that some of the studios MS bought might end up on the free market again.

You know its funny to see them doubling down on console sales dont matter, game sales dont matter, cloud streaming is the future. Wasnt Stadia exactly just that and completely bomb out? Its not like Stadia wasnt Initially lacking for content or marketing, people knew what it was and that it existed but the market spoke. So "console game sales dont matter" is the new goal post, streaming and firesticks will be the future, well didnt stadia kind of prove people dont want that?
 
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Bryank75

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Always appreciate your posts man. I never knew that about debt. How much debt does Sony have ?

Yeah, longterm debt is 7 billion.


Liabilities are obviously much higher, since it has so many operations in the field of consumer electronics etc.....due to stock, payments for components etc. So just dealing with longterm debt is easier.
 
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EverydayBeast

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Bryank75

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Yeah. Besides, they locked up Bethesda content (which used to sell most on PlayStation, IIRC). Now their games will only be available on Xbox and PC, and both Xbox and PC gamers will have the option of picking those games up on Gamepass day one.

I don't think how that will help Bethesda financially without MS funding tons of money in there constantly.

There is a chance, albeit slight as of now, that some of the studios MS bought might end up on the free market again.
It's funny, I often see people here breaking down how Zenimax is good because you can now access their games from more devices....

But I don't see anyone looking at things from a geographical perspective. In Europe, the Middle East an Japan and many other parts PlayStation is the dominant platform. By taking the games off PlayStation they are limiting the audience.... PS5 sales have already taken off, they already have their 2:1 lead or more in some places.
I don't think anybody cares if Zenimax games are available on a tablet or PC or phone etc. They just cut off 80-90% of Europe and 99% of Japan and probably over 90% of the Middle East and other places from playing those games and that is highly destructive to gaming.... that's millions and millions of game sales....... all for what? To hold the games ransom on their subscription.....

Hopefully your prediction comes true, it would be better for everyone.
 
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Clear

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I don't understand this post?

All content downloaded from PS5 for Beth games would come from Azure servers, which is a win for MS. Xbox looks more attractive and GP becomes a must (and allows MS to nudge the price up slightly) while recouping the losses by charging the competition. In effect, Sony would pay for a % of the Beth deal, while Microsoft reap all of the rewards.

IIRC Beth games sold better on 360 vs PS3 and i wouldn't be surprised if the same is true this time around (% wise). If Microsoft and Sony each sell 100 million consoles, why would MS leave a big chunk of change on the table?

Hell, MS could use that chunk of change to buy more studios and do the same.

In effect, this is the door creaking open to allow Xbox an escape plan; be a 3rd party publisher and put GP on Sony/everything. IF it needs an escape plan.

Just saying that taking all formerly Zenimax stuff xbox ecosystem only isn't a long-term solution, its a great bit of PR in the short term and may bump up interest/uptake but beyond that... its not helping that much in terms of the overarching goal of the enterprise: Which is to turn as handsome a profit as possible.

Spending billions to make millions is not an effective use of resources.
 

Zeroing

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Depends how much Amazon thinks the gaming market is worth their time and investment.

like I did said before, the easiest way is to buy big 3rd party developers and make them exclusive to the system/platform.

we gamers do not like change and we aren’t very happy for a non gaming company to “get in” the gaming market! So the results will be slow for a long period until they can make their brand identity and establish fans. The question is, does Amazon and/or Google willing to wait to see that long term investment pay off?

I will finish my thoughts with the more companies they are in a room trying to eat the cake, the lesser cake there is for them. So if google and Amazon keep trying to enter the gaming industry - the less profit all the 5 companies will make... someone will give up - like Sega
 

Dabaus

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It's funny, I often see people here breaking down how Zenimax is good because you can now access their games from more devices....

But I don't see anyone looking at things from a geographical perspective. In Europe, the Middle East an Japan and many other parts PlayStation is the dominant platform. By taking the games off PlayStation they are limiting the audience.... PS5 sales have already taken off, they already have their 2:1 lead or more in some places.
I don't think anybody cares if Zenimax games are available on a tablet or PC or phone etc. They just cut off 80-90% of Europe and 99% of Japan and probably over 90% of the Middle East and other places from playing those games and that is highly destructive to gaming.... that's millions and millions of game sales....... all for what? To hold the games ransom on their subscription.....

Hopefully your prediction comes true, it would be better for everyone.
This is a good point and something ive been thinking on as well. Say gamepass does really take off here in the US, it would be more a regional thing than like an industry changing thing IMO. I think Europe will stick with Playstation and nintendo, and sony is already starting to invest in china which could slowly start to take off. It will be interesting to see if the US will be a gamepass/whatever sony ends up doing territory but the rest of the world doesnt adopt it because xbox just currently isnt popular there.
 
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Zeroing

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I have a feeling Apple will be in this conversation very soon. Their games division is definitely learning from Apple Arcade and it's getting better by the week. They clearly have aspirations to go further I think it's just a matter of the top execs green lighting Apple's full invasion into the console space.
Nah, Apple is lazy, why go into more trouble where their tv subscription is failing? They are happy doing nothing and having a cut of the games being sold on their App Store. The mentality of Apple is still like they were that 90s poor company and they continue to think so. I am pretty sure if someone interview Tim Took he would say Apple is humble by having gaming devs choosing their platform.
 

Alright

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Just saying that taking all formerly Zenimax stuff xbox ecosystem only isn't a long-term solution, its a great bit of PR in the short term and may bump up interest/uptake but beyond that... its not helping that much in terms of the overarching goal of the enterprise: Which is to turn as handsome a profit as possible.

Spending billions to make millions is not an effective use of resources.
343I will be shut down after the launch of Halo. Zenimax B teams that used to work on Doom and maybe Fallout, will become the A teams, and the former A teams will work on the next Halo.

Obsidian should be given full control over Fallout and get it away from old Beth crew asap. New Vegas was the best 'fallout' since 'Fallout 2'.

Get some straggler teams to work on Wasteland, learn from Obsidian and split out to make remasters of old Isometric games like fallout.

Microsoft have enough IP's to work with and enough studios to remaster old games that it should be firing on all cylinders in about 18 months. Personally i would launch a streaming stick alongside all of this, and maybe an XSX redesign