With PS5 launching in China on May 15th, towards the end of the quarter we will finally see what actual demand looks like in Japan
But as mentioned before it's not so far an issue of hardware sales but rather an anemic software line-up by both Sony and Third Parties in terms of titles focused on Japan since the PS5 launch.
In terms of hardware, Sony will see growth compared to last year where they supplied very few PS4s during the first half of the year.
2020 H1 TOTAL:
3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW:
2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW:
435.812 (14%)
2021 TOTAL HW:
2.645.215
2021 TOTAL NSW HW:
2.176.199 (82%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW:
469.016 (18%)
Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:
- [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
- [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
- [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
- [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
- [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
- [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
- [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
- [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
- [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
- [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
- [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
- [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
- [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
- [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
- [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
- [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
- [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
- [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
- [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
- [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
- [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
- [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
- [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
- [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
- [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
- [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
- [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
- [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
- [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
- [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW
NSW -
20
PS4 -
10
TOTAL:
11.783.143
NSW TOTAL:
9.312.518 (79%)
PS4 TOTAL:
2.470.625 (21%)
TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:
- [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.970.371 NEW
- [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 892.038
- [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 674.662 NEW
- [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 435.704
- [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 365.329
- [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 336.769
- [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 274.926 NEW
- [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 236.322
- [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 207.660
- [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 199.916
- [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 165.728
- [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 157.332
- [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091 NEW
- [NSW] Super Mario Party - 135.788
- [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 108.838 NEW
- [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 94.458
- [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
- [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 80.924
- [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 70.674
- [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 66.414 NEW
- [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
- [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 58.739
- [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 56.153
- [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
- [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 53.252
- [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 52.981
- [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 49.865
- [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
- [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
- [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 35.247
NSW -
30
PS4/PS5 -
1
TOTAL:
7.196.442
NSW TOTAL:
7.087.604 (98%)
PS4 TOTAL:
108.838 (2%)
This situation will be further accelerated by Nintendo securing both multi-plats and exclusives from Third Parties and having a constant momentum from November last year, that will further accelerate in Q3... there is just a lot of major third party titles launching this year on the market leading platform in Japan that should do very well -
Rune Factory 5 being the next game likely to set a franchise record for
Marvelous.
Monster Hunter Rise has already outsold
Monster Hunter World in Japan and it sounds like Golden Week should give it further boost allowing it to almost catch up to the best selling third party game on the Switch -
Momotaro.
Momotaro is also not slowing down, so it's likely that
Konami will double it's previous record of
2 million by ending up with their first game to break the
4 million barrier in Japan.
Momotaro/Sakuna/Age of Calamity(Q4 2020)
Olive Town/Bravely Default 2/Monster Hunter Rise(Q1 2021)
Rune Factory 5/Samurai Warriors 5(Q2 2021)
Pro eBaseball Spirits 2021/Monster Hunter Stories 2/Shin-Chan: My Summer Vacation/Yu-Gi-Oh Rush Duel/Shin Megami Tensei V(Q3 2021)
Resident Evil: Village is the first high profile game on the PS5, and due to the PS4 SKU it's still questionable if the PS5 physical version will actually surpass
50K physical sales. Beyond
Village, we have
Scarlet Nexus coming out in June, than a lack of high profile exclusive title until September. So there is precious little reasons to expect this summer continue to demonstrate the trends we've already seen in terms of Software. Last year only across the Top 30 titles PlayStation 4 games managed
2.5 million physical sales,
Nier Replicant is the first entry of a PS4 game into this year's Top 30. In terms of third parties,
Sega demoted the guy who was a big Sony supporter,
Bandai are the other company closely aligned to the PS ecosystem but if their titles flop.. well they might also demote the guy who is a big Sony supporter and we have
Square and
Capcom who now both seem to spend an equal amount of resources supporting both Nintendo/Sony with exclusive titles & multiplats. When you have a multiplat release it's fairly obvious that this isn't really helping Sony in terms of winning back their Japanese audience, which is likely entirely lost unless they make a pretty sweeping change in their overall strategy for both Japan and the region.
Cyberpunk 2077(Q4 2020)
nothing(Q1 2021)
Nier Replicant/Resident Evil:Village/Scarlet Nexus(Q2 2021)
Final Fantasy 7 Remake Intergrade/
Tails of Arise(Q3 2021)