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Sales-Age Famitsu sales week 16

Bodomism

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It is not scalpers.
And even if it was the scalpers consoles ends in consumers hands that guy games anyway.

That scalper excuse is the most bullshit narrative I believe ever saw in the forum.
Guy from another country.

Sales data > Your sales imagination
 
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ethomaz

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Guy from another country.

Sales data > Your sales imagination
Except he doesn’t have the full sales data lol

Scalper imagination is just the worst... consoles ends in consumers hands no matter how many scalpers exists and consumers buy games... in simple terms scalpers doesn’t affect game sales... the guy that buys from scalpers still needs to buy games.

If the physical tracking is not showing that it is because two options:

1) Small user base so games sells small numbers
2) Digital add more sales than you guys believes

BTW consoles in hand of scalpers is a small part of shipment like 10% and they don’t stay longer on scalpers hands... they end in consumer hands.
 
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Bodomism

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Except he doesn’t have the full sales data lol

Scalper imagination is just the worst... consoles ends in consumers hands no matter how many scalpers exists and consumers buy games.

If the physical tracking is not showing that it is because two options:

1) Small user base só games sells small numbers
2) Digital add more sales than you guy believes

BTW consoles in hand of scalpers is a small part of shipment like 10%.
We have tons of confirmation about scalping issues in Japan for PS5 from the biggest japanese board, news, eye witnessed, kaito rudeya, and etc.

Japanese gamers in Japan : " Sony you need to address this scalping issues "

Brazilian guy : " Stop spreading FUD japanese people "
 
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MagnesG

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Just check Monster Hunter Rise numbers... I even said it is one example.

Facts > scalpers narratives.
Except that is just one data, from another popular long standing platform, for a highly regarded million seller franchise, with stock issue throughout launch. Yeah so accurate.

How much retarded could you be? There's nothing definite here about your narrative and now you're perpetuating other people's as fake while you yourself standing a pile of unconfirmed bullshit.
 
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ethomaz

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Except that is just one data, from another popular long standing platform, for a highly regarded million seller franchise, with stock issue throughout launch. Yeah so accurate.

How much retarded could you be? There's nothing definite here about your narrative and now you're perpetuating other people's as fake while you yourself standing a pile of unconfirmed bullshit.
Mod of War Mod of War
 
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ethomaz

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We have tons of confirmation about scalping issues in Japan for PS5 from the biggest japanese board, news, eye witnessed, kaito rudeya, and etc.

Japanese gamers in Japan : " Sony you need to address this scalping issues "

Brazilian guy : " Stop spreading FUD japanese people "
Scalper’s consoles ends in consumers hands that buy games.
C’mon. They didn’t disappear from the planet earth.

Scalpers are a issue? Yes, a big issue... not just in Japan.
But they doesn’t affect game sales.... who buy from scalpers have to buy new games.

The scalper excuse makes zero sense.
 
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Bodomism

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Stop being childish dude, just accepted the fact you're trying to spread fake news about no scalping issues in Japan.

We have our own user here in Japan reporting Scalping issues and yet you are still denying it
 

Bodomism

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Scalper’s consoles ends in consumers hands that buy games.
C’mon. They didn’t disappear from the planet earth.

Scalpers are a issue... yes but they didn’t affect game sales.

The scalper excuse makes zero sense.
And 0 games appeared on the chart. There's a clear correlation between scalping and games on sales ranking.
 

ethomaz

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And 0 games appeared on the chart. There's a clear correlation between scalping and games on sales ranking.
The chart is TOP30, no?
The chart doesn’t include digital, no?
Are you really sure games are not being sold?

Edit - I just checked.... the lower sales game in TOP30 is 1233 units... so it is not possible to have games selling around 1k every week in a 500k userbase? Plus how many digital add?

Stop being childish dude, just accepted the fact you're trying to spread fake news about no scalping issues in Japan.

We have our own user here in Japan reporting Scalping issues and yet you are still denying it
Because create a narrative based in scalpers = no game sales defy logic.

Scalpers only exists because they can sell at higher price fast (due shortage)... the moment they sell to a consumer they have to buy games like usual.

Scalpers selling consoles = games being brought.... not the opposite.

If a scalper start to take too long to sell the console he won’t do scalper anymore because that means there is no more supply issues.

The only hypothesis that the consoles sold by scalper are not generating new games sales is if the scalper or the consumer are just holding the console without doing nothing with it... scalpers doesn’t want and doesn’t do that... they want to sell it and most consumers will buy at least one game.
 
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MagnesG

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What? Can't argue with facts? You're fake af right now.

People are not even saying that all stocks are bought by scalpers, but a large amount are definitely siphoned to other countries every week.

Think with your brain, how do you figure out PS5 supplies coming out of nowhere on China and East Asia countries? We had been buying game products and merchandise since the DS days, PS5 aren't gonna stop that.
 

ethomaz

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What? Can't argue with facts? You're fake af right now.

People are not even saying that all stocks are bought by scalpers, but a large amount are definitely siphoned to other countries every week.

Think with your brain, how do you figure out PS5 supplies coming out of nowhere on China and East Asia countries? We had been buying game products and merchandise since the DS days, PS5 aren't gonna stop that.
I was arguing with facts... you were calling others retard without any fact.

You can take your own advice... think a bit... even consoles sold by scalpers have to buy games.
 
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MagnesG

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I was arguing with facts... you were calling others retard without any fact.

You can take your own advice... think a bit... even consoles sold by scalpers have to buy games.
They bought them on online stores of another countries mostly US sometimes countries with lower rates, buying physicals are no no because it is too expensive most of the local suppliers would only buy them on orders. Even rentals/shared account are more viable.
 
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onesvenus

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ComG! / Famitsu

First week
MHW: 2410 pt / 1.350.412
MHR: 1843 pt / 1.302.132

Second week:
MHW: 332 pt / 223.274
MHR: 265 pt / 277.604

Third week:
MHW: 219 pt / 125.527
MHR: 185 pt / 194.327

Fourth week:
MHW: 84 pt / 85.322
MHR: 83 pt / 110.050

MHW: 3045 pt / 1.784.535
MHR: 2376 pt / 1.884.113

Sorry about not knowing this but what does the pt metric measure?

it is not possible to have games selling around 1k every week in a 500k userbase? Plus how many digital add?
Of course it is but by your own numbers digital is around 30%. That means that games are at most, selling 1300 copies weekly.
As they have shown you before, there are multiple instances when a console with around 400k units have sold more than those numbers.
The software market on PS5 is not healthy at all. Let's see what happens when more Japanese centric games are released but I'd be concerned if I'm developing an exclusive game
 

ethomaz

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Digital will probably rise even more.

From April 25 the stores in Japan will be closed due the pandemic... they entered in State of Emergency.
Seems like Japan is living the worst period of the COVID-19.
 
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ethomaz

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BTW I took my time to make a comparison between physical x digital with 2020 Japan data.

Animal Crossing: New Horizons - Physical: 6.378.103; Digital: > 2.500.00 (>28%)
Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - Physical: 519.649; Digital: 450.000 (46%)
Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! - Physical: 1.233.023; Digital: 450.000 (27%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - Physical: 798.174; Digital: 450.000 (36%)
Splatoon 2 - Physical: 435.629; Digital: 350.000 (45%)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - Physical: 560.122; Digital: 350.000 (38%)
Super Mario 3D All-Stars - Physical: 492.620; Digital: 300.000 (38%)
Pikmin 3 Deluxe - Physical: 462.806; Digital: 250.000 (35%)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Physical: 246.688; Digital: 250.000 (50%)
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - Physical: 279.162; Digital: 150.000 (35%)
Super Mario Party - Physical: 466.086; Digital: 150.000 (24%)
Paper Mario: The Origami King - Physical: 294.697; Digital: 150.000 (34%)
Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - Physical: 142.710; Digital: 150.000 (51%)

Avg. 37.2%

I was using Avg. of 30% for digital in Japan... it seems a bit higher in 2020 but not enough to break 40% (I expect that to happen in 2021) so I can continue using 30%.
That is enough data for you MagnesG MagnesG ? I did not even use MHRise data.

That is Nintendo only... for some reasons I believe Sony digital is a bit higher than Nintendo.... Sony has average 62% digital Worldwide for 2020.
Just to break the bubble create here that Japan doesn't buy digital lol it is growing and fast.
 
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Woopah

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We are talking about 2-3k difference here.
Digital is way better today than it was in 2014... that include COVID-19... the 2-3k difference to games enter in TOP10 or TOP30 is probably due the digital.

But hey when I evidence nobody shows anything solid just that minor differences.
The evidence you asked for was "Show me games selling more than 5k units in 500k userbase outside launch week". That was your criteria and I provided exactly what you asked for.

Let's ask ourselves two simple questions:

Is an install base of 530,000 enough for games to sell over 4,000 outside launch week? - Absolutely. We have multiple examples of this, just not on PS5
Is an install base of 530,000 enough for games to sell over 100,000 ltd? - Absolutely. We have multiple examples of this, just not on PS5

Therefore, we know for a fact that PS5's install base is not the limiting factor. Several platforms have achieved better software sales with the same amount of hardware sales.

So what can it be? Well digital can certainly be a factor. The latest information on Sony's digital ratio I could find was 53% worldwide. (if you have a source for that 62% that would be great).

Let's say that in Japan the digital ratio for PS5 is 50%, that still means that the total physical and digital sales of the best selling PS5 software is below the physical only sales of the best selling Wii U, PS4 and Switch software. It's not a 'minor difference' in software sales, it's a significant one.

That's why lineup seems to me to be the biggest factor. By the time they hit 560,000 in hardware, Wii U had a new 2D Mario, PS4 has a new Yakuza and Metal Gear, and Switch had a new Zelda. PS5 won't have anything close to that until Village.
 
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Lionel Richie

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How much retarded could you be? There's nothing definite here about your narrative and now you're perpetuating other people's as fake while you yourself standing a pile of unconfirmed bullshit.

Bro I agree with you, but let's not call each other names. I think ethomaz is wrong here, but he's presenting his argument in a respectful manner. I'm not against calling his argument retarded, just not him directly.
 

Woopah

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Yeah the question of software taste is a very interesting one. I think over the short term people buy the console that has the games they want to play, but over the long term people want to play the games that are on the console that they've purchased. So if you can give a market a good reason to buy your console that has nothing to do with games (i.e. portability or price), that market will gradually begin to play the games that are available on your console whether they were originally interested in them or not. This has clearly happened in Japan, which used to be Sony country but where a significant portion of Switch gamers logically have to be lapsed FF/MGS/RE fans who have started to play Zelda and Mario instead (with Monster Hunter being the franchise that bridges the gap).

You're always going to have oddball exceptions like France, which is Nintendo country for seemingly no reason amidst Sony-dominated neighbors (I personally think the French love Nintendo for the same reason they love Hayao Miyazaki), but I think at the moment the developing world outside of China is pretty close to Italy in terms of its latent gaming preferences. Competitive multiplayer games like FIFA (!!!!!!), CoD, Gran Turismo and other driving games, and in a lot of places Tekken are the major franchises (the latter is an interesting case - look up what's been happening in competitive Tekken now that the scene has discovered how popular the game is in Pakistan). But if Sony doesn't release a budget PS4 for the developing market and Nintendo does release a budget Switch you might see these countries gradually defect to Nintendo franchises.
To continue our interesting conversation from the previous thread:

I disagree that hardware factors like price or portability are more important than software, even in the long term. In Japan DS, PSP, 3DS, PS Vita and Switch all offered the market portability, but their sales curves are very very different. PSP was portable from the very beginning, but its sales only exploded when it got Monster Hunter.

People in Japan aren't picking up a Switch or a PS4 and then looking at what games they might be interested in, they're picking up a Switch or PS4 because that's where the games they are interested in are.

I do agree with you that, for most of the developing world outside East Asia, its gaming tastes are more similar to Italy or New Zealand than they are to Japan. Nintendo is making some right moves by opening more local branches in these markets, but its is infrastructure is way behind Sony's and its software strength isn't as good either.

I could be wrong, but I think Sony is moving on from PS4 and isn't going to put out a budget model. Whereas I could see Nintendo offering the Lite at $149 in 2023. But as I said above, hardware is nothing without software and I don't think Nintendo can make much too many inroads into MENA or LATAM until they improve third party support or create their own titles that appeal to those regions.
 
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ethomaz

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The evidence you asked for was "Show me games selling more than 5k units in 500k userbase outside launch week". That was your criteria and I provided exactly what you asked for.

Let's ask ourselves two simple questions:

Is an install base of 530,000 enough for games to sell over 4,000 outside launch week? - Absolutely. We have multiple examples of this, just not on PS5
Is an install base of 530,000 enough for games to sell over 100,000 ltd? - Absolutely. We have multiple examples of this, just not on PS5

Therefore, we know for a fact that PS5's install base is not the limiting factor. Several platforms have achieved better software sales with the same amount of hardware sales.

So what can it be? Well digital can certainly be a factor. The latest information on Sony's digital ratio I could find was 53% worldwide. (if you have a source for that 62% that would be great).

Let's say that in Japan the digital ratio for PS5 is 50%, that still means that the total physical and digital sales of the best selling PS5 software is below the physical only sales of the best selling Wii U, PS4 and Switch software. It's not a 'minor difference' in software sales, it's a significant one.

That's why lineup seems to me to be the biggest factor. By the time they hit 560,000 in hardware, Wii U had a new 2D Mario, PS4 has a new Yakuza and Metal Gear, and Switch had a new Zelda. PS5 won't have anything close to that until Village.
55% was 2019.
62% was 2020.


Where is that game sales data for 500k userbase consoles? Do you have it to share with us?

You have to realize PS5 has around 25 retails games in Japan... if each PS5 user brought one game you will have 20k sales for each game but we know games that already broke that by a good margin... that is LTD... if you will factor weekly basis you will see the user base doesn't allow games to sell that much to enter in the ranking.

Unless it is a heavy hit that that most of the userbase will buy it.
PS5 didn't have any heavy hit yet for Japan but games are selling like any other previous consoles.

A good ideia is to have the full retail sales for each week but Famitsu doesn't release that and that gives the impression to some users create the narrative PS5 is not selling games due scalpers (that makes no sense because Scalpers consoles ends in consumers hands).
 
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Woopah

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55% was 2019.
62% was 2020.


Where is that game sales data for 500k userbase consoles? Do you have it to share with us?

You have to realize PS5 has around 25 retails games in Japan... if each PS5 user brought one game you will have 20k sales for each game but we know games that already broke that by a good margin... that is LTD... if you will factor weekly bases you will see the user base doesn't allow games to sell that much to enter in the ranking.

Thanks for the source! My 53% was specifically for the quarter where PS5 launched, whereas that 62% figure was for the whole 2020 calendar year (and judging by this chart the ratio was lower in the final quarter of the year than during the height of the lockdowns)

Do you agree now that hardware sales aren't the limiting factor?
 

ethomaz

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Thanks for the source! My 53% was specifically for the quarter where PS5 launched, whereas that 62% figure was for the whole 2020 calendar year (and judging by this chart the ratio was lower in the final quarter of the year than during the height of the lockdowns)

Do you agree now that hardware sales aren't the limiting factor?
Hardware sales will always be a limiting factor... you can’t sell a lot if you don’t have consoles active to buy your games.

That is exactly why early console life game used to have bigger legs than late console life games that are more front-lodes sales.

A big launch on PS5 today will hardly break 100k at launch that is over 20% of the consoles sold. While for PS4 you can reach 500k or even more with big releases.

Let’s wait PS5 build userbase and start to track games sales... you will see a lot of PS5 games on the TOP30... that happens with all consoles.

I will say more if PS5 launched in 2014 you guys will be saying the TOP10 were dimmed... it turn out that Switch games are selling very well something Wii U didn’t in 2014.

Edit - Fixed some typos.
 
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I could be wrong, but I think Sony is moving on from PS4 and isn't going to put out a budget model. Whereas I could see Nintendo offering the Lite at $149 in 2023. But as I said above, hardware is nothing without software and I don't think Nintendo can make much too many inroads into MENA or LATAM until they improve third party support or create their own titles that appeal to those regions.
Nah, the problem isn't the software. People in LATAM have the same tastes, the difference is budget. Everyone would be buying more Switch and PS4 if it wasn't for the fact that Steam prices are way lower than those two.
 

Woopah

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Hardware sales will always be a limiting factor... you can’t sell a lot if you don’t have consoles active to buy your games.

That is exactly why early console life game users to have bigger legs than late console life games that are more front-lodes sales.

A big launch on PS5 today will handle break 100k at launch that is over 20% of the consoles sold.

While for PS4 you can reach 500k or even more with big releases.

Let’s wait PS5 build userbase and start to track games sales... you will see a lot of PS5 games on the TOP30.
That's exactly my argument. Right now PS5 doesn't have any games with over 70,000 physical sales. That'd not because there isn't enough hardware out there, its because it doesn't have big games yet.

It doesn't make sense to say that a hardware base of 530,000 is not enough for a game to sell over 70,000, or even over 100,000. We know for a fact that isn't true.
 
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Woopah

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Nah, the problem isn't the software. People in LATAM have the same tastes, the difference is budget. Everyone would be buying more Switch and PS4 if it wasn't for the fact that Steam prices are way lower than those two.
Thanks for the insight! So if Nintendo were able to offer a cheaper priced hardware do you think it would do well in LATAM? I have no idea how popular Nintendo's first party IP is there.
 

MagnesG

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BTW I took my time to make a comparison between physical x digital with 2020 Japan data.

Animal Crossing: New Horizons - Physical: 6.378.103; Digital: > 2.500.00 (>28%)
Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - Physical: 519.649; Digital: 450.000 (46%)
Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! - Physical: 1.233.023; Digital: 450.000 (27%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - Physical: 798.174; Digital: 450.000 (36%)
Splatoon 2 - Physical: 435.629; Digital: 350.000 (45%)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - Physical: 560.122; Digital: 350.000 (38%)
Super Mario 3D All-Stars - Physical: 492.620; Digital: 300.000 (38%)
Pikmin 3 Deluxe - Physical: 462.806; Digital: 250.000 (35%)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Physical: 246.688; Digital: 250.000 (50%)
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - Physical: 279.162; Digital: 150.000 (35%)
Super Mario Party - Physical: 466.086; Digital: 150.000 (24%)
Paper Mario: The Origami King - Physical: 294.697; Digital: 150.000 (34%)
Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - Physical: 142.710; Digital: 150.000 (51%)

Avg. 37.2%

I was using Avg. of 30% for digital in Japan... it seems a bit higher in 2020 but not enough to break 40% (I expect that to happen in 2021) so I can continue using 30%.
That is enough data for you MagnesG MagnesG ? I did not even use MHRise data.

That is Nintendo only... for some reasons I believe Sony digital is a bit higher than Nintendo.... Sony has average 62% digital Worldwide for 2020.
Just to break the bubble create here that Japan doesn't buy digital lol it is growing and fast.
Fair enough, but that is purely on Switch, not even PS4 let alone PS5. Then again I'm not even against the fact that digital sales are growing, pretty much everywhere, I just find it hilarious you yourself are asking numbers for others aka I don't buy it blablablabla but you also only speculate all the same. Ironic, and it makes people doesn't wanna believe you half the time.

Bro I agree with you, but let's not call each other names. I think ethomaz is wrong here, but he's presenting his argument in a respectful manner. I'm not against calling his argument retarded, just not him directly.
I will probably stop when he stop mocking other people's narrative yet still he doesn't have a clue on what he said. It's kinda pathetic I can't help piling on him.

But I'll stop lol, now I see that was unhealthy of me. Maybe I care too much for something today.

I apologize to everyone involved.
 

Lionel Richie

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I will probably stop when he stop mocking other people's narrative yet still he doesn't have a clue on what he said. It's kinda pathetic I can't help piling on him.

But I'll stop lol, now I see that was unhealthy of me. Maybe I care too much for something today.

I apologize to everyone involved.

I get you bro, we get passionate here. I called plenty of people retarded in the past, but I've seen Jesus Christ (via pm) and now I know there's a difference between calling SOMETHING stupid and calling someone stupid. Keeping that in mind does keep us healthy.
 

Krappadizzle

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I'm always surprised how much the Switch sales. I dunno why. I've been playing it a lot lately and have enjoyed the hell out of it, but I've only recently turned it on after being off for more than a year. That thing is a sales juggernaut.
 
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MrA

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I was arguing with facts... you were calling others retard without any fact.

You can take your own advice... think a bit... even consoles sold by scalpers have to buy games.
Japan is s little different than the us or eu countries, scalpers sell to china and other gray markets,
 
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Woopah

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I'm always surprised how much the Switch sales. I dunno why. I've been playing it a lot lately and have enjoyed the hell out of it, but I've only recently turned it on after being off for more than a year. That thing is a sales juggernaut.
2020 was a pretty bad year for the platform (game wise, not sales wise) but 2021 is way better. We may finally be at a point where Nintendo is getting strong support from Japanese third parties and so the gaps between first party releases can be filled.
 

Dream-Knife

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2020 was a pretty bad year for the platform (game wise, not sales wise) but 2021 is way better. We may finally be at a point where Nintendo is getting strong support from Japanese third parties and so the gaps between first party releases can be filled.
To be fair, after 2017 every year has been a disappointment. But that applies to gaming as a whole really.
 
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Bodomism

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Holy Sh*t, after Momochadbro we could potentially see another million seller from Konami for Nintendo Switch in this year!



Not only that with the announcement of eBaseball spirits 2021 exclusive to Nintendo Switch, Konami has 2 big games in this year for Switch.



Who would've thought Konami could potentially end up as the best selling publisher in Japan when mainline Monster Hunter and Resident Evil were released in the same year.

Meanwhile SQE and Namco Bandai ..... With 0 mega projects for Nintendo Switch.
 
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Thanks for the insight! So if Nintendo were able to offer a cheaper priced hardware do you think it would do well in LATAM? I have no idea how popular Nintendo's first party IP is there.
Yeah, of course!
But it's not Nintendo's fault. Many latam contries have high taxes too.
For example, in my country a Nintendo Switch costs US$435. A game costs US$41 with the regional pricing on the Nintendo store. The bad thing is that salary is normally ~US$300. So a console costs more than your salary and each game costs around 1/8 of your salary. No one buys that, or you have to save for months to buy your kid a Switch.

PS1 got a lot of sales because it was easily hacked. It had great games, but the main selling point was 'free games'. Well, not free because you had to buy them from stores. I don't know anyone that had an original copy of a game back in the day.
The same happened with PS2 only that that time everyone knew PlayStation.
With PS3 they lost sales because the console was pricier and it was more difficult to hack it. The advantage was that now people relied on account sharing to buy games cheap with the risk of losing them.
PS4 was only hackable if you kept it offline so only account sharing was possible. Also the situation of the country worsened so less people bought them.

Check Steam. I'm able to buy Nier Replicant now at US$23.80. An original copy, without any hassle and in a PC, that in many families is shared by every member.
 
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noshten

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530
Sofia
2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 2.518.407
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 2.070.366 (72%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 448.041 (18%)

At current pace Switch needs around 6 weeks to surpass last year's first half total. Overall I'd expect in the first half of the year Switch to surpass 3 million units in Japan according to Famitsu. Which will be momentum heading into a much stronger Q3/Q4 especially if some of the rumored 1st and 3rd Party games end up launching in the holidays.

PS4/PS5 have already outsold the total Hardware sales PS4 achieved during the first half of last year, as we can remember at the time Sony had limited shipments of the PS4 in Japan. Overall if 20K per week is maintained we would be looking at 650K units sold by the middle of 2021 across the PS4/PS5.

Overall I think we would see around 3.7 million hardware sold across the Switch/PlayStation 4/PlayStation 5 in the first half of the year.

Switch meanwhile is around

Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:
  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
  6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
  8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
  9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
  10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
  11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
  13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
  14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
  15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
  16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
  17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
  18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
  19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
  20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
  21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
  22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
  23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
  24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
  25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
  26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
  27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
  28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
  29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
  30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143
NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)
PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)

TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.884.113 NEW
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 879.623
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 658.642 NEW
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 423.417
  5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 357.060
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 326.438
  7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 272.267 NEW
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 229.552
  9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 198.436
  10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 195.375
  11. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 161.232
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 152.586
  13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091 NEW
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 131.913
  15. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 94.458
  16. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
  17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 78.900
  18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 68.969
  19. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  20. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 64.558 NEW
  21. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 56.954
  22. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 56.153
  23. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
  24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 51.437
  25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 51.006
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 49.865
  27. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  28. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  29. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 35.247
  30. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 34.622
NSW - 30
PS4/PS5 - 0

TOTAL: 6.929.175

On the Software side Switch is only 2.4 million from overtaking last year's first half result with Rise, Pokemon Snap, Rune Factory 5, Miitopia & MarioGolf being the major titles set to launch on the system for the reminder of the first half of the year. With this line-up I think we are likely to see the Top 30 to have around 10.5 million software sales on the Switch by mid year.
Based on the number of games set to launch in Q3, its entirely possible for software in the Top 30 to surpass 15 million by the end of Q3.

Outside of Bandai, Square and Sega, this year most Japanese third parties are targeting the Switch by either making multiplat titles or going full exclusive, combine that with Nintendo & Pokemon Co also having more titles launching and it's a first for the Switch as it's likely that in terms of software results by the end of Q3 it will be close to the software sales achieved on the system for the entirety of last year.

Switch Exclusives 2021
Q1: Bowser's Fury(Nintendo), Olive Town(Marvelous), Bravely Default 2(Square Enix), Monster Hunter Rise(Capcom)​
Q2: Pokemon Snap(Pokemon Co.), Rune Factory 5(Marvelous), Famicom Detective Club(Nintendo), Miitopia(Nintendo), Mario Golf(Nintendo),​
Q3: Pro eBaseball Spirits 2021(Konami), Monster Hunter Stories 2(Capcom), Shin-Chan: My Summer Vacation(Neos), Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD(Nintendo), Yu-Gi-Oh Rush Duel(Konami), Shin Megami Tensei V(Atlus)​

Combine this exclusive list with the fact that a lot of publishers are also going with a multiplat strategy and games like Little Nightmares 2, Disgaea 6, Samurai Warriors 5, Ace Attorney Chronicles etc also selling best on the Switch, this year has totally accelerated the need for Japanese third party publishers to fully embrace Nintendo. Especially with Asia trending in a similar direction there would likely be a divergence in East/West in terms of which platforms are targeted at launch, especially as most Japanese third parties have focused on also growing an audience on PC in the past 4-5 years.

This basically spells out the situation for Sony this year and likely heading into 2022. This impact will be most heavily felt by Japanese third parties aligned to them and also their Western partners.

Overall PlayStation needs to basically invest heavily into securing exclusivity or M&A in order to keep even 5% of the market in Japan in 2021/2022.
If Resident Evil, Scarlet Nexus, Tails of Arise & Replicant all under perform than it would take a lot for Japanese third party to invest into PlayStation exclusivity and the development & marketing costs associated with competing with Western AAA efforts.

When we look to the future, it's rather loopsided in Japan and we haven't really felt the full impact of PS5 reality setting in or internal pipelines being entirely focused on Switch. Just in terms dated games

PS4/PS5 Exclusives >100K
Q1 2020: Nioh 2(Koei Tecmo), Yakuza 7(Sega), Granblue Fantasy: Versus(Cygames), Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot(Bandai Namco)​
Q2 2020: FFVII Remake(Square Enix), Resident Evil 3(Capcom), The Last of Us Part II(Sony),​
Q3 2020: Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs(Bandai Namco), Ghost of Tsushima(Sony), The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki(Falcom)​
Q4 2020: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony), Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft)​
Q1 2021: nothing​
Q2 2021: Nier Replicant(Square Enix), Resident Evil: Village(Capcom), Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco),​
Q3 2021: Final Fantasy 7 Remake Intergrade(Square Enix), Tails of Arise(Bandai Namco)​

Basically up until September the only significant titles are RE:Village, Scarlet Nexus, Tails of Arise, FFVIIRI, and Nier Replicant. With no title really guaranteed to surpass 200K physical sales, compare that to last year where we had Resident Evil 3, Yakuza 7, FFVII Remake & TLOU2 all surpassing 200K in the first half of the year and six other titles surpassing 100K.
Overall the second half of 2020 was the first signs of the accelerated decline in terms of sales for the PlayStation 4, as supply for the system slowed down in preparation for PS5 launch and the biggest game of the 2nd half of the year Ghost of Tsushima actually was hampered by the lack of hardware availability. There was no other title that surpassed 200K on the system and PS5's launch didn't really have any hit software in the fall or early parts of 2021.

Replicant will be the first tile to launch on the PS4 that has a chance of entering the Top 30 for the year; shortly followed by Village and the software performance will tell us a lot about future Japanese third party support. If everyone is starting to make bank on the Switch like Konami, Marvelous, Koei, Capcom have managed in the past 9 months there is little incentive to support the PS5 with exclusive games which in the past gave it a competitive advantage over the Nintendo ecosystems.
 

Woopah

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55% was 2019.
62% was 2020.


Where is that game sales data for 500k userbase consoles? Do you have it to share with us?

You have to realize PS5 has around 25 retails games in Japan... if each PS5 user brought one game you will have 20k sales for each game but we know games that already broke that by a good margin... that is LTD... if you will factor weekly basis you will see the user base doesn't allow games to sell that much to enter in the ranking.

Unless it is a heavy hit that that most of the userbase will buy it.
PS5 didn't have any heavy hit yet for Japan but games are selling like any other previous consoles.

A good ideia is to have the full retail sales for each week but Famitsu doesn't release that and that gives the impression to some users create the narrative PS5 is not selling games due scalpers (that makes no sense because Scalpers consoles ends in consumers hands).
I was just looking at previous threads so its not consolidated in one place I'm afraid.

Let's look at it this way and take digital into account (applying your 62% figure).

On hardware of 638.621, the highest a PS5 game could have gone this week (physical and digital) is 3,244. There are plenty of examples that show install bases of 638.621 are enough to support weekly game sales of higher than 3,244, even if we only look at physical. I've listed some below just for PS4 (but can provide more from PS4 and other systems if you want):

Week 28 2014 (PS4 hardware: 635.645): FIFA 14 - 4.569 / 63.447 & Watch Dogs - 6.000 / 82.378
Week 23 2014 (PS4 hardware: 597.156): FIFA 14 - 5.126 / 35.172 & Infamous: Second Son - 3.973 / 47.396
Week 17 2014 (PS4 hardware: 546.881 ): Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Real Reborn - 4.858 / 36.185
Week 14 2014 (PS4 hardware: 506.739): Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes 7.859 / 112.13

PS5's hardware sales are absolutely enough to support higher software sales than we are currently seeing. Its the lineup which is the cause, not the install base.




Holy Sh*t, after Momochadbro we could potentially see another million seller from Konami for Nintendo Switch in this year!



Not only that with the announcement of eBaseball spirits 2021 exclusive to Nintendo Switch, Konami has 2 big games in this year for Switch.



Who would've thought Konami could potentially end up as the best selling publisher in Japan when mainline Monster Hunter and Resident Evil were released in the same year.

Meanwhile SQE and Namco Bandai ..... With 0 mega projects for Nintendo Switch.
Konami: The turnaround for Konami on Nintendo is quite interesting. They were massive supporters of the DS, did very little on 3DS or Wii U, but are now investing in multiple exclusives for Switch. The only caveat is that the games announced for the platform so far are ones which are very Japan-focused. Will be interesting to see if they include Switch in their plans for franchises like Metal Gear, Silent Hill and Castlevania (maybe something we see at E3 since Konami is attending?)

Best selling publisher: I didn't even think about this, but you could be right. Momotaro, Yu-gi-oh and Baseball Spirits could do about 2 million between them, but I'm not sure if that would be enough to outdo Rise, Monster Stories 2 and Village. We could also see Winning 11 and Resident Evil: Outrage come out this year so we'd have to take this into account

SE & NB: I think you're too harsh on SE here. To me SE are currently closer to Capcom and being a good supporter of Switch, whereas Namco is closer to Sega and being a baffling supporter of Switch. When a SE game skips Switch I usually get the reason why. The Namco games that skip Switch are just ridiculous. Square has already released BD2 and announced Triangle Strategy this year, plus they have The World Ends With You: Neo coming later. I'm confident we'll see more big Switch projects coming from Square, but I don't have the same confidence in Namco as long as Harada is in charge.
Yeah, of course!
But it's not Nintendo's fault. Many latam contries have high taxes too.
For example, in my country a Nintendo Switch costs US$435. A game costs US$41 with the regional pricing on the Nintendo store. The bad thing is that salary is normally ~US$300. So a console costs more than your salary and each game costs around 1/8 of your salary. No one buys that, or you have to save for months to buy your kid a Switch.

PS1 got a lot of sales because it was easily hacked. It had great games, but the main selling point was 'free games'. Well, not free because you had to buy them from stores. I don't know anyone that had an original copy of a game back in the day.
The same happened with PS2 only that that time everyone knew PlayStation.
With PS3 they lost sales because the console was pricier and it was more difficult to hack it. The advantage was that now people relied on account sharing to buy games cheap with the risk of losing them.
PS4 was only hackable if you kept it offline so only account sharing was possible. Also the situation of the country worsened so less people bought them.

Check Steam. I'm able to buy Nier Replicant now at US$23.80. An original copy, without any hassle and in a PC, that in many families is shared by every member.
Very interesting! So basically unless Nintendo can offer cheap game prices (not exactly something they are known for...) then they are not going to grow much in the region. They did return to Brazil last year so they must have plans to try something at least.
 
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MastaKiiLA

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The scalpers argument is pretty idiotic. Scalpers wouldn't keep buying a system that isn't selling. So, it has to be assumed that what's bought by scalpers lands in the hands of end-users anyway. So unit sales should translate the same. So the software charts disparity could be any number of reasons. I assume the most likely scenario is digital sales. If demand is high enough, digital-only gamers would still be likely to scoop up a disc system, just so they have a PS5 to play on.
 
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MrA

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The scalpers argument is pretty idiotic. Scalpers wouldn't keep buying a system that isn't selling. So, it has to be assumed that what's bought by scalpers lands in the hands of end-users anyway. So unit sales should translate the same. So the software charts disparity could be any number of reasons. I assume the most likely scenario is digital sales. If demand is high enough, digital-only gamers would still be likely to scoop up a disc system, just so they have a PS5 to play on.
I've mentioned it before but scalpers in Japan don't only sell to Japan, they sell to China and othe asiqn counties which wouldn't lead to physical software sales, I don't know how many are being sold like this but it isn't like the us or eu where scalped unit still result in 1 to 1 units to actual consumers in the region, from the last article I can find on the subject they wer selling at like 3x the price on the chinese grey market so the incentive to scalp exports
how many are being exported I don't know (scalpers in the us seem to have 10 to 20 % pass thru their hands) but the rules and incentives are different in Japan
 
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Bodomism

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The scalpers argument is pretty idiotic. Scalpers wouldn't keep buying a system that isn't selling. So, it has to be assumed that what's bought by scalpers lands in the hands of end-users anyway. So unit sales should translate the same. So the software charts disparity could be any number of reasons. I assume the most likely scenario is digital sales. If demand is high enough, digital-only gamers would still be likely to scoop up a disc system, just so they have a PS5 to play on.
China's grey market and south asian countries market.

You can go to any japanese gaming board and the answer you will get is mostly about China and scalpers.

Digital sales excuse is probably the most stupid reason of low physical sales for PS5. Japan isn't like UK with digital being a huge part of the market and yet UK physical sales attach rate is much better than Japan.
 
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HeresJohnny

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Sony's Japanese strategy needs to step up its game. I mean, the PS5 has been out for over 6 months and not one game on the charts. They're selling systems but no games. Has to be quite alarming if you're a publisher.
 
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I could be wrong, but I think Sony is moving on from PS4 and isn't going to put out a budget model. Whereas I could see Nintendo offering the Lite at $149 in 2023. But as I said above, hardware is nothing without software and I don't think Nintendo can make much too many inroads into MENA or LATAM until they improve third party support or create their own titles that appeal to those regions.
A Lite at $150 won't do the trick, particularly if Nintendo refuses to add HDMI out - handhelds have been discounted to that price before. You might be right about Sony having moved on from the PS4, but if so that's extremely foolish in my view. Part of the reason PlayStation is dominant in so many markets is because of the omnipresence of the PS2 in those markets fifteen years ago. Pushing the PS4 to the same levels of market penetration would garner them invaluable mindshare, plus it would probably be more profitable than the PS2 because of reduced piracy.
 
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MagnesG

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The scalpers argument is pretty idiotic. Scalpers wouldn't keep buying a system that isn't selling. So, it has to be assumed that what's bought by scalpers lands in the hands of end-users anyway. So unit sales should translate the same. So the software charts disparity could be any number of reasons. I assume the most likely scenario is digital sales. If demand is high enough, digital-only gamers would still be likely to scoop up a disc system, just so they have a PS5 to play on.
End-users in other countries. Please be more informed next time. A local supplier in my country (East Asia) has PS5 stock coming from China ranging on double-digit every week, and that's just a small supplier from a small country. Multiply by at least tens of them suppliers, multiply it again with the countries involved. It's like a legal syndicate here, been going on for years, with Japan as the target because it's the closest, most efficient one.
 
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noshten

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Konami: The turnaround for Konami on Nintendo is quite interesting. They were massive supporters of the DS, did very little on 3DS or Wii U, but are now investing in multiple exclusives for Switch. The only caveat is that the games announced for the platform so far are ones which are very Japan-focused. Will be interesting to see if they include Switch in their plans for franchises like Metal Gear, Silent Hill and Castlevania (maybe something we see at E3 since Konami is attending?)

Best selling publisher: I didn't even think about this, but you could be right. Momotaro, Yu-gi-oh and Baseball Spirits could do about 2 million between them, but I'm not sure if that would be enough to outdo Rise, Monster Stories 2 and Village. We could also see Winning 11 and Resident Evil: Outrage come out this year so we'd have to take this into account

SE & NB: I think you're too harsh on SE here. To me SE are currently closer to Capcom and being a good supporter of Switch, whereas Namco is closer to Sega and being a baffling supporter of Switch. When a SE game skips Switch I usually get the reason why. The Namco games that skip Switch are just ridiculous. Square has already released BD2 and announced Triangle Strategy this year, plus they have The World Ends With You: Neo coming later. I'm confident we'll see more big Switch projects coming from Square, but I don't have the same confidence in Namco as long as Harada is in charge.

The thing about Konami is that they could also drop Winning Eleven on the Switch this year and considering how much EA has dropped the ball it could end up pay off in a massive way for them. Outselling Capcom this year is certainly tough but just the fact they might actually be competing is definitely great for them. Momotaro is already their best selling game in Japan of all time, and all of the games they've launched on the Switch thus far have surpassed 200K.
In terms of their future growth outside of Winning Eleven it could be reviving Metal Gear, Silent Hill & Castlevania also I think Bomberman with a higher budget could build upon Bomberman R.

SE & NB are likely to end up below Marvelous in Japan this year, as in the case of Square they basically need to announce something DQ related to put them into position to outsell Rune Factory 5, Olive Town & Sakuna this year, while with Bandai we already know that their major efforts are focused on PS4/PS5 limiting their potential by a pretty big amount, it's not very surprising to see Little Nightmares 2 continue to be their best selling game of the year thus far up until Scarlet Nexus drops but in the very near future Village/Replicant will tell us about it's potential.



In terms of the PS5 demand in Japan will become clear once it launches officially in China, which is expected to happen by the middle of the year. Much like Ring Fit once it got it's official launch in China we can expect to see the actual situation in Japan.
 
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smbu2000

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Interesting to see Pro Baseball Spirits coming to Switch (only Switch?) as it’s primarily been a Playstation only franchise on both console as well as portable, besides a one-off on 3ds in 2011.

Konami has mainly been focused on the Mobile version, but it’s nice to see it coming to Switch.
It used to release yearly until 2015, after that the next console version was in 2019 on ps4/vita. This new one will be the first non-mobile version since then.
 

Kerotan

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Interesting to see Pro Baseball Spirits coming to Switch (only Switch?) as it’s primarily been a Playstation only franchise on both console as well as portable, besides a one-off on 3ds in 2011.

Konami has mainly been focused on the Mobile version, but it’s nice to see it coming to Switch.
It used to release yearly until 2015, after that the next console version was in 2019 on ps4/vita. This new one will be the first non-mobile version since then.
Is there another PlayStation version coming?
 

Woopah

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2020 H1 TOTAL: 3.102.694
2020 H1 NSW HW: 2.666.882 (86%)
2020 H1 PS4 HW: 435.812 (14%)

2021 TOTAL HW: 2.518.407
2021 TOTAL NSW HW: 2.070.366 (72%)
2021 TOTAL PS4/PS5 HW: 448.041 (18%)

At current pace Switch needs around 6 weeks to surpass last year's first half total. Overall I'd expect in the first half of the year Switch to surpass 3 million units in Japan according to Famitsu. Which will be momentum heading into a much stronger Q3/Q4 especially if some of the rumored 1st and 3rd Party games end up launching in the holidays.

PS4/PS5 have already outsold the total Hardware sales PS4 achieved during the first half of last year, as we can remember at the time Sony had limited shipments of the PS4 in Japan. Overall if 20K per week is maintained we would be looking at 650K units sold by the middle of 2021 across the PS4/PS5.

Overall I think we would see around 3.7 million hardware sold across the Switch/PlayStation 4/PlayStation 5 in the first half of the year.

Switch meanwhile is around

Top 30 2020 H1 Famitsu:
  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 5.004.720 NEW
  2. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix) - 931.165 NEW
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 650.859
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 577.875
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 346.034
  6. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 284.717
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 280.662
  8. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon Co) - 259.513 NEW
  9. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 NEW
  10. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 NEW
  11. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training - 219.039
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 217.875
  13. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 212.515
  14. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 204.689 NEW
  15. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 171.620 NEW
  16. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772 NEW
  17. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 152.239
  18. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble (Atlus) - 149.898 NEW
  19. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 NEW
  20. [PS4] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 133.593 NEW
  21. [PS4] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai) - 131.315 NEW
  22. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 130.369
  23. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 123.920 NEW
  24. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 122.091
  25. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Sega) 119.007
  26. [NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 (Bandai Namco) - 117.954 NEW
  27. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 111.474
  28. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy Versus (Cygames) - 111.094 NEW
  29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 109.584
  30. [NSW] Trials of Mana (Square Enix) - 100.451 NEW
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 11.783.143
NSW TOTAL: 9.312.518 (79%)
PS4 TOTAL: 2.470.625 (21%)

TOP 30 2021 Famitsu:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 1.884.113 NEW
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) - 879.623
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury - 658.642 NEW
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 423.417
  5. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 357.060
  6. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 326.438
  7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 272.267 NEW
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 229.552
  9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 198.436
  10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass - 195.375
  11. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 161.232
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 152.586
  13. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091 NEW
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 131.913
  15. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe - 94.458
  16. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 89.899
  17. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 78.900
  18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 68.969
  19. [NSW] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 65.620
  20. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 64.558 NEW
  21. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 56.954
  22. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 56.153
  23. [NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (Koei Tecmo) - 53.364
  24. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan) - 51.437
  25. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 - 51.006
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey - 49.865
  27. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 (Sega) - 36.105
  28. [NSW] Family Trainer (Bandai Namco) - 35.273
  29. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 35.247
  30. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 - 34.622
NSW - 30
PS4/PS5 - 0

TOTAL: 6.929.175

On the Software side Switch is only 2.4 million from overtaking last year's first half result with Rise, Pokemon Snap, Rune Factory 5, Miitopia & MarioGolf being the major titles set to launch on the system for the reminder of the first half of the year. With this line-up I think we are likely to see the Top 30 to have around 10.5 million software sales on the Switch by mid year.
Based on the number of games set to launch in Q3, its entirely possible for software in the Top 30 to surpass 15 million by the end of Q3.

Outside of Bandai, Square and Sega, this year most Japanese third parties are targeting the Switch by either making multiplat titles or going full exclusive, combine that with Nintendo & Pokemon Co also having more titles launching and it's a first for the Switch as it's likely that in terms of software results by the end of Q3 it will be close to the software sales achieved on the system for the entirety of last year.

Switch Exclusives 2021
Q1: Bowser's Fury(Nintendo), Olive Town(Marvelous), Bravely Default 2(Square Enix), Monster Hunter Rise(Capcom)​
Q2: Pokemon Snap(Pokemon Co.), Rune Factory 5(Marvelous), Famicom Detective Club(Nintendo), Miitopia(Nintendo), Mario Golf(Nintendo),​
Q3: Pro eBaseball Spirits 2021(Konami), Monster Hunter Stories 2(Capcom), Shin-Chan: My Summer Vacation(Neos), Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD(Nintendo), Yu-Gi-Oh Rush Duel(Konami), Shin Megami Tensei V(Atlus)​

Combine this exclusive list with the fact that a lot of publishers are also going with a multiplat strategy and games like Little Nightmares 2, Disgaea 6, Samurai Warriors 5, Ace Attorney Chronicles etc also selling best on the Switch, this year has totally accelerated the need for Japanese third party publishers to fully embrace Nintendo. Especially with Asia trending in a similar direction there would likely be a divergence in East/West in terms of which platforms are targeted at launch, especially as most Japanese third parties have focused on also growing an audience on PC in the past 4-5 years.

This basically spells out the situation for Sony this year and likely heading into 2022. This impact will be most heavily felt by Japanese third parties aligned to them and also their Western partners.

Overall PlayStation needs to basically invest heavily into securing exclusivity or M&A in order to keep even 5% of the market in Japan in 2021/2022.
If Resident Evil, Scarlet Nexus, Tails of Arise & Replicant all under perform than it would take a lot for Japanese third party to invest into PlayStation exclusivity and the development & marketing costs associated with competing with Western AAA efforts.

When we look to the future, it's rather loopsided in Japan and we haven't really felt the full impact of PS5 reality setting in or internal pipelines being entirely focused on Switch. Just in terms dated games

PS4/PS5 Exclusives >100K
Q1 2020: Nioh 2(Koei Tecmo), Yakuza 7(Sega), Granblue Fantasy: Versus(Cygames), Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot(Bandai Namco)​
Q2 2020: FFVII Remake(Square Enix), Resident Evil 3(Capcom), The Last of Us Part II(Sony),​
Q3 2020: Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs(Bandai Namco), Ghost of Tsushima(Sony), The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki(Falcom)​
Q4 2020: Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War(Sony), Cyberpunk 2077(Spike Chunsoft)​
Q1 2021: nothing​
Q2 2021: Nier Replicant(Square Enix), Resident Evil: Village(Capcom), Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco),​
Q3 2021: Final Fantasy 7 Remake Intergrade(Square Enix), Tails of Arise(Bandai Namco)​

Basically up until September the only significant titles are RE:Village, Scarlet Nexus, Tails of Arise, FFVIIRI, and Nier Replicant. With no title really guaranteed to surpass 200K physical sales, compare that to last year where we had Resident Evil 3, Yakuza 7, FFVII Remake & TLOU2 all surpassing 200K in the first half of the year and six other titles surpassing 100K.
Overall the second half of 2020 was the first signs of the accelerated decline in terms of sales for the PlayStation 4, as supply for the system slowed down in preparation for PS5 launch and the biggest game of the 2nd half of the year Ghost of Tsushima actually was hampered by the lack of hardware availability. There was no other title that surpassed 200K on the system and PS5's launch didn't really have any hit software in the fall or early parts of 2021.

Replicant will be the first tile to launch on the PS4 that has a chance of entering the Top 30 for the year; shortly followed by Village and the software performance will tell us a lot about future Japanese third party support. If everyone is starting to make bank on the Switch like Konami, Marvelous, Koei, Capcom have managed in the past 9 months there is little incentive to support the PS5 with exclusive games which in the past gave it a competitive advantage over the Nintendo ecosystems.
In a worldwide context there's plenty of of incentive to make PS5 games. It'll be a console with a large global userbase and Sony is willing to pay for exclusivity for AAA games, so it makes sense why higher end games like Forspoken or FF16 would be made for it. It's performance in Japan won't effect those big games, but it can effect smaller games from Japanese publishers I think

A Lite at $150 won't do the trick, particularly if Nintendo refuses to add HDMI out - handhelds have been discounted to that price before. You might be right about Sony having moved on from the PS4, but if so that's extremely foolish in my view. Part of the reason PlayStation is dominant in so many markets is because of the omnipresence of the PS2 in those markets fifteen years ago. Pushing the PS4 to the same levels of market penetration would garner them invaluable mindshare, plus it would probably be more profitable than the PS2 because of reduced piracy.
I do agree it would be good for Sony and Nintendo to offer cheaper hardware for markets like LATAM, I just don't have any confidence in them actually doing it. As Floating Islands pointed out, piracy played a big role in PS2's success in LATAM and that's not something Sony or Nintendo wants to happen with their current platforms.
The thing about Konami is that they could also drop Winning Eleven on the Switch this year and considering how much EA has dropped the ball it could end up pay off in a massive way for them. Outselling Capcom this year is certainly tough but just the fact they might actually be competing is definitely great for them. Momotaro is already their best selling game in Japan of all time, and all of the games they've launched on the Switch thus far have surpassed 200K.
In terms of their future growth outside of Winning Eleven it could be reviving Metal Gear, Silent Hill & Castlevania also I think Bomberman with a higher budget could build upon Bomberman R.

SE & NB are likely to end up below Marvelous in Japan this year, as in the case of Square they basically need to announce something DQ related to put them into position to outsell Rune Factory 5, Olive Town & Sakuna this year, while with Bandai we already know that their major efforts are focused on PS4/PS5 limiting their potential by a pretty big amount, it's not very surprising to see Little Nightmares 2 continue to be their best selling game of the year thus far up until Scarlet Nexus drops but in the very near future Village/Replicant will tell us about it's potential.



In terms of the PS5 demand in Japan will become clear once it launches officially in China, which is expected to happen by the middle of the year. Much like Ring Fit once it got it's official launch in China we can expect to see the actual situation in Japan.
I do think Switch will get a version of Winning 11 this year, and hopefully some more Konami projects for future years as well (we'll see some at E3 maybe). We now Square will be at E3 too so we could see more projects from them dated/announced. It is Dragon Quests 25th anniversay so maybe we'll see something about DQ Infinity Strash and DQ Monsters and maybe one of them could come this year.