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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

ksamedi

Member
Sep 7, 2006
5,854
0
1,290
Rotterdam
Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.
 

tsab

Member
Apr 26, 2010
4,272
0
0
mostly at work :(
130mil only if Nintendo makes 2-3 more models.

Switch Mini (like a Vita)
Switch TV (like PS TV)
2nd revision with cheaper materials (like 2ds)
Switch Pro


commence product confusion
 

jariw

Member
Oct 14, 2014
3,812
0
0
What?
Wii sold about 12.7M units in Japan, it's less than what one should expect from a console leader in the market (15M +) and surely it was disappointing after the initial very strong sales but it's not terrible at all.

12.7 M for Wii in Japan is terrible, compared to the almost 50M in the US. Compare that to the 3DS, where Japan is the largest single market. The OT prediction is based on that the Switch will sell a lot in Japan.
 

120v

Member
Mar 14, 2013
9,445
270
660
these projections are nearly impossible to game out given how many SKUs it may or may not have. especially when we're talking about half a decade out

these things are fun and all but kind of irrelevant
 

febLey

Member
Aug 24, 2015
488
0
0
Seems pretty optimistic. I'd bet 70 - 90 Mil

��

Switch ain't no DS, guys.
I love how your avatar underlines your post.

 
Nov 8, 2010
10,111
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That seems a bit unlikely, maybe if Nintendo releases bi-yearly hardware refreshes and they all count towards the Switch total.

I think the Switch will do fine, but nowhere near those numbers.
 

Omnistalgic

Member
Mar 20, 2012
10,662
0
0
Jersey
Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.
Eh disagree there. That's a lot of consoles, even if it is popular. Doesn't seem like a lock to me, but something that would be surprising.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
3
0
It's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.

Let me refresh your memory again:

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=228248367&postcount=12595
lol

Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.
I don't think that 130 is a lock but yeah... We are still very early in the Switch cycle, once all the puzzle pieces come together we could see some massive sales worldwide.
 

Boy Wander

Member
Oct 20, 2012
3,346
83
585
If you have money to invest guys, don't listen to investment firms like Credit Suisse who have their ears to the ground because it's like their fucking job - listen to Nev . This guy is clearly a modern day Nintendradamus. On topic: 130 seems a little high, I'm guessing it'll finish somewhere between 3DS and Wii, which all things considered is a triumph given where they were a year ago.
 
Aug 15, 2017
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Yep this thread went about as expected. 3DS sales the ceiling, Japan a dead market, 40 million lifetime as an actual prediction, the Wii a one-off success that is unattainable again, Nintendo success being "threatening" and people predicting less than Wii U sales in January still are in denial.

And apparently the only ones out of their minds and don't know what they're talking about are Credit Suisse lol.
 

get2sammyb

Member
Feb 9, 2009
2,575
1
0
England
You guys do realise that even if the Switch reaches 20 million by the end of this year (stock shortages look like they'll make that impossible, but let's be optimistic) it'll need to sell 27.5 million units per year every year to hit this target, right?

EDIT: Just to add, I think Switch is going to be very successful, but there are shades of grey. I don't know how they arrived at this kind of figure.
 
Aug 15, 2017
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Yeah no


So then you expect the switch to move a staggering 130m units by 2022?

I never said that at all. But I see people who come here daily predicting 40 million lifetime and wonder why only the predictions on the more positive end of things are being considered ludicrous.

It's going to sell *well* over 10 million in its first 12 months on the market which only includes one holiday period and I'm to take 40 million seriously? Come on...
 

iswasdoes

Member
Aug 19, 2016
377
0
0
Couple of things that make this not crazy:

How low the price will go
Switch is already running on an old chip (and doing very well with it) - we could see bigger and bolder price drops than with other consoles. Once it gets down into $150/$99 territory, i expect even the most anti nintendo people might start to consider picking one up

mainly because of

How good the library is gonna get
First party line up has already been extraordinary, and there is shitloads of IP yet to be mined. Indie support is really encouraging and exciting. Last gen ports, rather than being seen as a negative, are driving more interest because everyone wants their favorite games on the go. 3rd parties are getting on board way more than anticipated (Who would have thought bethesda and rockstar would show support already?). And of coursem the Virtual frikkin console.

Within 3 years, you will have a sub $200 hybrid with a library that reads like a best of gaming for the past two, nay, four decades.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 4, 2009
12,715
283
1,035
12.7 M for Wii in Japan is terrible, compared to the almost 50M in the US. Compare that to the 3DS, where Japan is the largest single market. The OT prediction is based on that the Switch will sell a lot in Japan.
12.7M for XX console in Japan cannot be categorized as terrible.

I would rephrase your sentence as:
12.7 M for Wii in Japan was disappointing, compared to the almost 50M in the US (actually almost 45M) and how it performed in the japanese market in the first few years.

Just like I don't think 3DS sales outside Japan to be terrible but surely disappointing compared to the penetration in the japanese market (and past Nintendo handhelds).
 

blu

Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
May 4, 2007
13,696
272
1,285
I'll take whatever those analysts are smoking.
 

13ruce

Banned
Aug 29, 2016
8,330
10
0
Netherlands
Portable GTA V on Switch and i will believe it well atleast 100m. That + Pokemon and alot more will help it alot and if theyvprice cut on time and do new skus + msrp bundles then woop woop.

Now i am at a safe bet of like 75m.
 

ozfunghi

Member
Jun 19, 2010
5,469
0
580
What even is this argument?

"If it can sell 130 million, what's to stop it from selling 160?"

100 million would put it on par with the PS1 and Wii lifetime sales (And with the way things are going, the PS4's). That's a fucking lot of units, and it's hard to significantly push past that. Only two consoles have managed to pass 130 million in the history of the industry.

Because other gaming devices have already reached that number, that means the market can absorb those numbers. Only 4 have reached 100m as well, so the same can be said of your argument "what even is this argument". The market has proven before that 130m is possible, it has never gone beyond that. So 2 out of 4 consoles that sold 100m have gone through to sell 30m more. That's 50% of the consoles that sold 100m also selling 130m, but all 4 of them were cultural phenomenons. Had Nintendo supported the Wii the two final years of its life, it also might have gone higher as well. But it's silly to say "100 is possible, but 130 is not". I think Nintendo should be happy if it sells 3DS/PSP/360 numbers at this point, but it's just as silly to project 100m as it is 130m for the moment. But there is no reason why it should be possible to sell 100, but impossible to sell 130. There is a good reason why it might not sell 160 if it reaches 130, as the market never supported a device with those numbers before.
 

MatrixMan.EXE

Member
Sep 1, 2014
9,210
0
475
Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.

Delusional. I don't think you realise how much of a sales monster this system needs to be to reach that number. To outsell the Wii even. It's selling well but I get the feeling that there are some of you who think this thing is going to be the next PS2.

I think it'll just about outsell the 3DS at best. 80m tops and that's being generous.
 

SgtCobra

Member
Mar 11, 2011
7,963
0
0
I never said that at all. But I see people who come here daily predicting 40 million lifetime and wonder why only the predictions on the more positive end of things are being considered ludicrous.

It's going to sell *well* over 10 million in its first 12 months on the market which only includes one holiday period and I'm to take 40 million seriously? Come on...
It was a question from me to you, Credit Suisse is pretty much out of their minds if they expect the Switch to do 130 million by 2022.
40 million is also a stupid amount and it will get well past that.
Apparently? Haha. Funny. Videogame forum

I work for Credit Suisse and I can assure you these guys do little mistake.

Behold the new 3DS phenomenon.
Wrap it up then ladies and gents! Switch to become the new PS2/Wii confirmed.
 

tenderbrew

Member
Jan 27, 2015
1,191
3
415
Philadelphia, PA
On one hand, these guys are betting on this for investment guidance, so they have put way more rigorous thought into it than the average GAF-er.

On the other hand, financial analysts are wrong every day.

Really the take away should be less the specific number, and more the trajectory of success that they think this thing will take. Regardless of whether it sells 100mm or 130mm, investors see it being one of the best selling consoles of all time in a 5 year horizon and Nintendo being massively successful. So take that as you will.
 

Usobuko

Banned
Feb 3, 2013
12,694
0
515
On one hand, these guys are betting on this for investment guidance, so they have put way more rigorous thought into it than the average GAF-er.

On the other hand, financial analysts are wrong every day.

Really the take away should be less the specific number, and more the trajectory of success that they think this thing will take. Regardless of whether it sells 100mm or 130mm, investors see it being one of the best selling consoles of all time in a 5 year horizon and Nintendo being massively successful. So take that as you will.

Yep, if not I'm still waiting for Credit Suisse rating for Tuniu to come true. It's been almost year since they revised.
 
Aug 15, 2017
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It was a question from me to you, Credit Suisse is pretty much out of their minds if they expect the Switch to do 130 million by 2022.
40 million is also a stupid amount and it will get well past that.

Well if you want my opinion I am afraid you're out of luck, I don't do these predictions because the more you asset yourself the more silly you look when/if you're wrong. Especially in this instance, it's a 6 month old system and we barley know anything about future system sellers it'll have beyond 2017.

Your original comment was implying I did agree with the article which is what I took issue with, don't put words into my mouth.

I'll continue to watch others make fools of themselves then.
 

faint.

Member
Jul 24, 2012
785
0
395
I don't see this happening for any console in the world of the smartphone. Then again, I know the PS4 is doing crazy well, and recall people comparing it to the PS2, but I don't know if that was hyperbole.
 

D.Lo

Member
Aug 20, 2006
9,836
1
1,470
Sydney Australia
Delusional. I don't think you realise how much of a sales monster this system needs to be to reach that number. To outsell the Wii even. It's selling well but I get the feeling that there are some of you who think this thing is going to be the next PS2.

I think it'll just about outsell the 3DS at best. 80m tops and that's being generous.
Given you now expect it to sell 'well' and maybe 80m, let's see what you said pre-launch:

Question: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
Nope. They're making the exact same mistakes they did with the Wii U and then some. The price, bare bones launch line up and the complete fumbling of their online services will ensure Nintendo fans are yet again the only people that give a damn.

People who think Joycons and Zelda are going to be a good enough hook here are kidding themselves.

I think it's just as insane to rule out 100 million as it is to guarantee it.
 

kitchenmotors

Banned
Jun 7, 2004
9,293
0
1,425
39
It's actually kind of amazing you have posted here considering I quoted your outrageous pre-release prediction that has already been proven completely insane earlier on the same page.

Let me refresh your memory again:

http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=228248367&postcount=12595

Fucking dragged.

I honestly can see this number being a reality by 2022. With refreshes and costs eventually decreasing, making a variant of the system cheaper and more accessible, 130m is possible.
 

MatrixMan.EXE

Member
Sep 1, 2014
9,210
0
475
I don't see this happening for any console in the world of the smartphone. Then again, I know the PS4 is doing crazy well, and recall people comparing it to the PS2, but I don't know if that was hyperbole.

Exactly. The console market has shrunk considerably. There isn't a market for appx 300m consoles to be sold in this day and age. It's partly why Xbox One has been selling the way it has. PS4 will likely settle at around 100m.

I'm not entirely sure what it is about Switch that makes people think it's exempt from the current market conditions, especially when there's zero indication of it being the sales monster many seem to think it will be.

Given you now expect it to sell 'well' and maybe 80m, let's see what you said pre-launch:

Question: Do you think the Switch will be a success?


I think it's just as insane to rule out 100 million as it is to guarantee it.

It's pretty sad that you felt so hurt by my comment that you trawled through months of my post history to make a "gotcha" post.

Your argument makes no sense. If it's silly to rule out 100m then we may as well not rule out any number. My previous prediction was based on my opinion. Sure, things turned out better than I expected and I've said as much. My prediction now is based on what we're actually seeing happen. Anything goes, but seeing the Switch as it is now, I see it topping at around 80m at best, which isn't even bad.
 

JonnyDBrit

Member
May 14, 2015
7,470
5
0
I feel like it's gonna be three bits of hardware that will affect whether or Nintendo can sell anything close to that proposed number.

1) The NAND storage. The current shortage limits how much Nintendo can acquire, particularly vs mobile phone makers whose orders are another order of magnitude above what Nintendo wants/needs. If this gets resolved over the course of the next year, great, but if not it's going to be a constant bottleneck.
2) The RAM. Similar deal with NAND, there's a shortage and it's putting prices up, which no doubt factors into what Nintendo have to pay even for the modules they use. If prices come down on that, then Nintendo can ease on the console price further as well.
3) The Tegra X1, maybe X2. Obviously, the Tegra SoC is the core component of the system, and how much Nintendo is able to get at a given price likely has an effect on the overall price. But well, it's also one of the pieces of hardware that's least subject to other external forces, and so I can imagine its production may be limited as according to the limitations on everything else. Not hard to picture Nintendo not wanting another Wii U situation in which they order and then sit on unsold stock, in this case because they can't get enough NAND to build Switches to put the SoCs in. If they can't order more, then they're less likely to get a better discount per unit from Nvidia, without some order promises being made.

If that can be sorted, along with simply getting units onto shelves, that can bring the price down towards the impulse buy territory that really fuels 100+ million sellers in the long run. But that's also assuming Nintendo keeps the system overall appealing, which is just too much speculation.
 

SgtCobra

Member
Mar 11, 2011
7,963
0
0
Well if you want my opinion I am afraid you're out of luck, I don't do these predictions because the more you asset yourself the more silly you look when/if you're wrong. Especially in this instance, it's a 6 month old system and we barley know anything about future system sellers it'll have beyond 2017.

Your original comment was implying I did agree with the article which is what I took issue with, don't put words into my mouth.

I'll continue to watch others make fools of themselves then.
I understand, I'll gladly take that risk though. I mean, if I'm wrong then that means a more healthy system and industry so it wouldn't be a disaster at all for me if I misprojected.

And it is true that we don't know much about the system's future but we also don't know what the competition is gonna do, we also don't know how long the shortages may impact the system (especially in Japan as in Europe it is pretty widely available).

And no I wasn't implying anything, now you're putting words in my mouth. I was asking you something, that's it, if you interpret it differently then that's up to you.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Jan 15, 2017
1,602
0
290
Because other gaming devices have already reached that number, that means the market can absorb those numbers. Only 4 have reached 100m as well, so the same can be said of your argument "what even is this argument". The market has proven before that 130m is possible, it has never gone beyond that. So 2 out of 4 consoles that sold 100m have gone through to sell 30m more. That's 50% of the consoles that sold 100m also selling 130m, but all 4 of them were cultural phenomenons. Had Nintendo supported the Wii the two final years of its life, it also might have gone higher as well. But it's silly to say "100 is possible, but 130 is not". I think Nintendo should be happy if it sells 3DS/PSP/360 numbers at this point, but it's just as silly to project 100m as it is 130m for the moment. But there is no reason why it should be possible to sell 100, but impossible to sell 130. There is a good reason why it might not sell 160 if it reaches 130, as the market never supported a device with those numbers before.
5 game platforms hit 100m (Game Boy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2, Nintendo DS, Wii).

Delusional. I don't think you realise how much of a sales monster this system needs to be to reach that number. To outsell the Wii even. It's selling well but I get the feeling that there are some of you who think this thing is going to be the next PS2.

I think it'll just about outsell the 3DS at best. 80m tops and that's being generous.
80m isn't really that 'generous' a ceiling. Switch is vastly outperforming 3DS globally, if that continues 80m would be a more reasonable floor.
 

Frodo

Member
Nov 6, 2012
10,033
1
635
I'll wait to see how Pokemon affects the sales, and how fast can Nintendo ramp up the production.
 

MatrixMan.EXE

Member
Sep 1, 2014
9,210
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475
5 game platforms hit 100m (Game Boy, PlayStation, PlayStation 2, Nintendo DS, Wii).


80m isn't really that 'generous' a ceiling. Switch is vastly outperforming 3DS globally, if that continues 80m would be a more reasonable floor.

Switch outperforming 3DS 6 months into its life doesn't exactly paint the long term picture. No one on either side of the fence will really understand how this thing will do long term until the stock situation normalises and we have many more months worth of data. My prediction stands just as much chance of happening as your +100m prediction.