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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

renzolama

Member
Sep 16, 2016
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What is it with Nintendo hyperbole, it seems to infect everyone from internet forums all the way to massive banking executives. It's either doomed or going to take over the world, there's no in between.
 
Apr 10, 2007
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Nintendo cares a out selling new hardware, not just the latest tech.

You would think after 3DS, 3DS XL, 2DS, n3DS, n3DS XL and 2DS XL people would know they roll.

They are totally gonna release new Switch versions every 1-2 year, with the goal of making core use upgrade to the latest hardware and maybe sell/gift their old system to family members or friend. They are gonna push for multiple Switches per household.

Yup, it's a question of what kind of iteration it is going to be. Is it going to be the old Nintendo of just different form factors and some minor cpu upgrades with full backwards compatibility or is it going to be the smartphone iteration of form & cpu upgrade every year with full backwards compatibility that goes back only a couple years without launching a 'new brand' each time. I think ten years of smartphones sales data work in that iteration models' favor.
 
Dec 3, 2006
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Whether the Switch achieves this or not is not that important IMO. The fact that it is receiving this kind of "outrageous" predictions is a good sign, and shows that people are taking notice and it's not the WiiU all over agin.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
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Oh no I fully expect them to do like 5 versions of the Switch. Just like the 3DS though I don't think the actual hardware will change to the point where theres significant fragmentation in terms of older systems not being able to play games the same way you have with iOS/Android
While we have cases like Xenoblade and FE Warriors as new 3DS exclusives I also don't believe that's the road Nintendo will take. I absolutely believe that there will be more powerful Switch iterations but most devs will still develop the game so that they run on the base system, just because of the installed base. So not much different than we have nowadays with n3DS, PS4Pro and XOX.

Considering some games are hitting Switch now that we're developed with PS4/Xbox in mind like DQXI, Doom and NBA2K.... That Switch révision would have to much more powerful for devs to not have the game running on base systems as well. There is also the likelihood of that extra power in future iterations being used to enabl VR for the current library.
 

Malice215

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Aug 15, 2010
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I think it will outsell the 3DS at least if Nintendo keeps this momentum up, fleshes the system out with apps and VC, and drops the price some by year 3.

The wild predictions show that people are confident in the system when pre launch many thought it would flop at $300 with little 3rd party support. The flexibility of the Switch has been a huge selling point.
 

F4r0_Atak

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Nov 12, 2012
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I think it will outsell the 3DS at least if Nintendo keeps this momentum up, fleshes the system out with apps and VC, and drops the price some by year 3.

The wild predictions show that people are confident in the system when pre launch many thought it would flop at $300 with little 3rd party support. The flexibility of the Switch has been a huge selling point.

Sure the flexibility of the Switch is a valid selling point now... but I don't see this flexibility be any useful the further we go into this gen (unless there's some new design/visual mentality that affects all future projects). :/
 

D.Lo

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Aug 20, 2006
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Sure the flexibility of the Switch is a valid selling point now... but I don't see this flexibility be any useful the further we go into this gen (unless there's some new design/visual mentality that affects all future projects). :/
What It doesn't lose its flexibility as it gets older.

It is a great product for portable multiplayer. It's like having a mini TV, console and two controllers ready for some Mario Kart where ever you go. It does this better than anything else on the market and I can't see that changing in 2-3 years unless other companies jump in on the hybrid space.
 

F4r0_Atak

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Nov 12, 2012
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*bookmark*

See you naysayers in five years!

LOL... I am not a naysayers. It's not impossible for Nintendo to reach those numbers with the Switch, but it won't be an easy feat. The Nintendo Wii was cheap to develop for, hence why we had a "metric" ton of shovelwares. The system had games, but most importantly, a lot of 3rd and 1st party exclusives.
 
Jul 1, 2017
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What is it with Nintendo hyperbole, it seems to infect everyone from internet forums all the way to massive banking executives. It's either doomed or going to take over the world, there's no in between.
tbf this is exactly what they've been since the wii era,it'd be either a domination like the wii/ds/3ds or a total failure like the wii u
 

F4r0_Atak

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Nov 12, 2012
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What It doesn't lose its flexibility as it gets older.

It is a great product for portable multiplayer. It's like having a mini TV, console and two controllers ready for some Mario Kart where ever you go. It does this better than anything else on the market and I can't see that changing in 2-3 years unless other companies jump in on the hybrid space.

Its flexibility can also reflect in its raw power as both a home console and a portable device. In that sense, that "flexibility" will impact the kind of support it will have further down the line. The audience this system aims for is not just the casual now, it's trying to attract core gamers too, compared to the Wii and WiiU whose main focus was always the casual gamers. And the average core gamer will expect certain future titles to appear on the system despite its current success.
 

biglittleps

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Feb 4, 2014
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Things are changing very fast everywhere and people get addicted to something new out there. I don't think Nintendo can keep everyone attention that long to sell their hardware like now (sold to core users which can be around 20-30 million unique users max and expect them to sell around 3DS numbers only) even if they make revisions its hard to sell that much. Mobile industry is moving very fast and will be doing what gaming consoles can do in few years and so developers gonna consider that also a platform to develop for due to user base (they just need a standard controller).
 

snap

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Feb 20, 2017
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I am absolutely opposed to this idea not because I don't want Nintendo to see success but I can't accept the idea that this would mean that the Tegra X1 ended up being a successful SoC

Even after every other Tegra SoC either: started strong, but within a year ended up far behind competitors; or was a straight disgrace from the get go.
 

noshten

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Oct 20, 2014
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With the way technology and manufacturing prices go down, I personally think the current Switch model will cost them less than $200 to produce by the end of 2018. So if they want they could possibly have a $200 model by the time Pokemon is released.
Granted this will only happen if they've sold over 25 million by the time Pokemon releases. We know that their handheld sales are linked with households buying multiple models - and this will happen with the Switch as the price starts to go down.

In any case I've always expected additional Switch models and supplementary processing devices. With $20 per year subs, Pokemon mainline game, mobile efforts(Animal Crossing), theme parks and licensing of their properties for merchandising and movies/anime to me 2018 is going to be a huge year.

130m by the end of 2022 is not unthinkable but we've got to see how 2018 shapes up and what the pipeline looks like. If they get major Japanese third parties on-board for 2018 and get Pokemon, DQXI, new Yokai Watch, new Monster Hunter all within the next year - I've no doubt we'll see a +6mil year in Japan for 2018, which would be in line with the type of sales DS was doing in Japan. That would get it over 1/3 of total 3DS LTD sales in 2 years. This type of numbers will definitely signal that it will surpass 3DS LTD in Japan in 4-5 years which would show that 130m is something achievable.

In the end for the Switch to do 130m it needs to have a major breakthrough in the mobile market, it's well positioned as a Nintendo tablet you can plug into the TV - it's just a matter of seeing momentum in the holidays and next year. Nintendo need to ensure they have another killer year in terms of software and top it off with flagship titles like Pokemon, SSB and Animal Crossing.
 
Apr 10, 2007
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Things are changing very fast everywhere and people get addicted to something new out there. I don't think Nintendo can keep everyone attention that long to sell their hardware like now (sold to core users which can be around 20-30 million unique users max and expect them to sell around 3DS numbers only) even if they make revisions its hard to sell that much. Mobile industry is moving very fast and will be doing what gaming consoles can do in few years and so developers gonna consider that also a platform to develop for due to user base (they just need a standard controller).

We upgraded from 14M core Nintendo gamers to 20-30M core gamers now. I guess that's progress.

Mobile is still a threat but the Switch is actually getting some mobile games now, including a very popular MOBA. If anything, Nintendo can use that to their advantage especially when they launch Switch LTE.
 

Mark1

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Apr 6, 2013
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Could actually see it surpassing Wii sales. Especially when Pokemon is out. Followed by the inevitable Animal Crossing.

More third parties are jumping on board too
 

Danneee

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Jun 12, 2009
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I think a LOT of sales depends on if the Pokémon Go crowd will jump on a Switch Pokémon game. Maybe if they can combine the two games somehow, like if you can transfer over your Pokémon by logging in to you Go account or some online functionality for the Switch game.

In either case I totally see the Switch selling more than 70m units by 2022.
 

Cepheus

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People are saying that this won't happen but then again 99.9% of GAF thought the Switch would bomb following the January event and then everyone backpedalled after it came out.

Even I bought the Switch solely because I thought it would bomb and it would become a collectors' item like the Dreamcast. Now I have 15 games for it and play it every day.
 

Naked Snake

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Majukun

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Jun 19, 2009
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no way they'll get that high.. in fact I fuera the success of the switch will be rather short lived until Nintendo solves his problems with third parties... which they'll probably never do.
 

m00h

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Dec 11, 2013
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That ain't gonna happen, pal. I see the Switch selling 80m, maybe 90m at max. I expect the Switch to feel outdated quite soon. They can probably keep up the attention with new revisions, but not to that extent.
 
Apr 10, 2007
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no way they'll get that high.. in fact I fuera the success of the switch will be rather short lived until Nintendo solves his problems with third parties... which they'll probably never do.
After Doom and Wolfenstein 2, anything is possible. And if they sell well, then all bets are off.
 

MilkyJoe

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Jan 29, 2014
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After Doom and Wolfenstein 2, anything is possible. And if they sell well, then all bets are off.

The Wii sold 100 million, do you really think that the switch is going to outsell a console that even "non gamers" wanted? It'll do alright, but the second coming it 'aint.
 

MrCookiepants

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Oct 17, 2010
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lol why are people acting as if Wii sales are unattainable. If PS3 can sell 90 million then why can't Switch do 10 million more?

Ya'll clearly are missing a shift in the market that happened forever ago when the iPad launched. We're seeing it pushed even further with the iPhone X. People are willing to pay premium price for portable devices these days. Handhelds are not cheap lil kids toys anymore. The Switch is a powerful and desirable piece of tech with a solid niche and no competition. The sky's the limit.
 
Jun 14, 2016
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in fact I fuera the success of the switch will be rather short lived until Nintendo solves his problems with third parties... which they'll probably never do.

I don't think it really matters at this point.

- They've sorta demonstrated this year that their big releases are enough to generate buzz for their system to keep it flying off shelves.

- They won't be able to release a Zelda or Mario caliber title all of the time, but they have a pretty heavy portfolio of titles that they could release in the future to keep the system's momentum going. There's still Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, and Fire Emblem. We also haven't seen Retro's game, Pikmin 4, and whatever Next Level Games is working on.

- Pokemon pretty much ensures that the system will be successful in 2019 even if the system were to somehow die in 2018.

- There'll eventually be a point where the 3DS finally dies which will free up even more resources for the system.

- Should their release schedule dry up, they have a pretty big catalog of Wii U titles they could port pretty easily that may as well be new games for most people.

- They have FIFA, NBA 2K, and Minecraft. Those are like the bare minimum of very consistent selling third party staples. All they're really missing is Madden, CoD and GTA V.

- Late ports are actually valid because the portability makes inferior versions of games have a purpose in existing. Skyrim will most likely sell well, and I think Doom will too. We also live in a remaster/port heavy world, and the Switch is probably able to run all of those titles, not with the enhancements PS4/XBO get obviously, but competently for sure.

- They're pushing indie games pretty hard to make their lineup seem better.

This also doesn't take into account that there are some other third party games coming like Sonic Forces (bad 3D Sonic games sell well still), Dragon Quest IX, Project Octopath Traveler, Rocket League, No More Heroes, Wolfenstein, etc. Platinum Games likely has something going on and supposedly From Software did at some point. I don't know, the third party lineup honestly doesn't look terrible even compared to the 3DS, and their first party stuff is going to be insane regardless. Def not reaching 130 million though, that's like PS2/DS cultural phenomenon levels of success that I don't see happening anytime soon.
 

jariw

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Oct 14, 2014
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The Wii sold 100 million, do you really think that the switch is going to outsell a console that even "non gamers" wanted? It'll do alright, but the second coming it 'aint.

World-wide isn't one market. The Wii sold terribly in Japan.
 

Celine

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Oct 4, 2009
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"as it says the device sells like a handheld console rather than a traditional console"
But their previous handheld console will end up at 70M+ so why 130M?
I'm still baffled that many don't seem to understand that Switch strength is in it being a possible heir of Nintendo home console and handheld console and Vectrex console (lol).
It could be everything in a "switch".
It's not a case of one or the other.

World-wide isn't one market. The Wii sold terribly in Japan.
What?
Wii sold about 12.7M units in Japan, it's less than what one should expect from a console leader in the market (15M +) and surely it was disappointing after the initial very strong sales but it's not terrible at all.
 

Zoon

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Feb 8, 2013
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Can they even produce that much? Even then they would have to sell ~25m consoles per year on average. I think it's a bit too optimistic. Even with a cheaper model eventually releasing I don't see it selling more than 80-90m.
 

Nev

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Jun 27, 2013
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L fucking mao.

I'll eat a whole family of crows if this thing is at 50 million by 2019.

Good luck though.
 
Jul 28, 2014
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People are saying that this won't happen but then again 99.9% of GAF thought the Switch would bomb following the January event and then everyone backpedalled after it came out.

I dunno man, I'm one of the bigger advocates of the Switch and even I think this is on the far side.

L fucking mao.

I'll eat a whole family of crows if this thing is at 50 million by 2019.

Good luck though.

That being said, eat the crow you got first before asking for seconds.