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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

TwistedFreeze

Member
Dec 15, 2015
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All good.

Switch shouldn't peak for a couple more years barring a 3DS-like sales collapse. I expect the PS4 to start declining next year since it'll be in its 5th year on the market. And the successor will probably out 2019-2020.
Well hopefully Nintendo will do regular price drops for their console, keep pumping out games at a good rate and building support. The 3DS suffered because a notable number of big releases stopped coming after a little while

Hmm...maybe but I personally don't think we'll see any significant decline till the PS5 comes out. Until then, it should keep selling well
 

Menchi

Member
Jan 14, 2013
409
0
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UK
Not a chance. I'm even thinking 70M is optimistic, but certainly doable.

Has Switch taken off in Europe at all? Only thing I can find is "biggest launch" but then absolutely nothing since. They're consistently in stock over here too (UK)

Mario Oddyssey will almost certainly bring the numbers up here though, everyone loves Mario
 

KrawlMan

Member
May 19, 2007
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1,120
PS4 and Switch actually seem to have synergy. Neither is eating at the other. PS4 is having its best year so far despite the Switch launch.

I bought both in March/April - definitely feeling the synergy. Nintendo isn't delivering all the goods (see major third party releases), but the goods they are delivering I really don't wanna miss out on. Until that changes, I expect both systems to continue to thrive.
 

hipsterpants

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Aug 12, 2013
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I'm not really sure why people here would think the PS5 would affect the Switch in any way. The strength of the Switch is it's portability, nobody buys it for the power.

Anyway I think it's obviously too early, but things could increase exponentially with the good WoM it gets and Nintendo actually making enough units.
 

spelen

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Sep 24, 2016
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tho this 130 million is crazy talk I must say all you ppl trying to compare ps4 first year to switch first year are forgetting that ps4 launched in Nov vs switch in march. so lets pump the brakes on the hyperbole until switch enjoys its first holiday then we can properly compare sales data
 

Instro

Member
Jan 14, 2009
24,476
1
705
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California
Not a chance. I'm even thinking 70M is optimistic, but certainly doable.

Has Switch taken off in Europe at all? Only thing I can find is "biggest launch" but then absolutely nothing since. They're consistently in stock over here too (UK)

Mario Oddyssey will almost certainly bring the numbers up here though, everyone loves Mario

Based on what little I've read about EU sales, UK seems to be the outlier. Maybe someone else can shed more light there though
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Aug 30, 2009
16,960
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1,060
The Switch has outsold the PS4 in most of its months since released (in the US). All this with a lot of production issues.

Japan is a dying market for Sony. Nintendo is doing as good as ever.

You do know that switch is not even close to PS4 first 2 months on the market in USA .
Truth is PS4 has the advantage there since it came out in NOV .
Still we will see how the numbers line up after switch first holiday in USA.
Also if switch could not out sell PS4 in it's 4th year it would have been a problem for Nintendo ( it's also not doing it by much since supply so low )
 

Oresama

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Oct 24, 2016
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Do AAA publishers take these analysis numbers seriously when considering support for a console, or are they more concerned about actual console sales numbers?
 

AzaK

Member
Jun 11, 2011
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So Nintendo is moving into the home electrical game? That's the only way they'll hit 130 mill.
 

Menchi

Member
Jan 14, 2013
409
0
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UK
Based on what little I've read about EU sales, UK seems to be the outlier. Maybe someone else can shed more light there though

Yeah, I thought that too, though it is in stock across Europe (Amazon, at least) right now, so not entirely sure the demand is the same EU wide as it is JP/US. Still, it'll be nice to get some solid numbers from Ninty soon.
 

Lothars

Member
Dec 5, 2008
10,594
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Regina SK Canada
We'll see after the first holiday if people in this thread really think 3DS numbers are the ceiling.
I don't agree is 3DS numbers and I would be shocked if it hits a 100 million sold. I like the system It's going to have a great first year with Mario and Zelda and hopefully they can keep it up with no long term droughts but I will believe it when I see it.
 

starmud

Member
Jul 19, 2007
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Apple Valley, CA
Depends on how fast they can lower costs and be a value... imagine even at $200 what numbers the system will push with pokemon... much less animal crossing in japan alone. If they can maintain some western support of larger titles who's to say 100m or more can't be done.
 

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
Mar 2, 2006
19,523
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PS4 and Switch actually seem to have synergy. Neither is eating at the other. PS4 is having its best year so far despite the Switch launch.
If the Switch continues to receive games of the caliber of DOOM and Wolfenstein, the platform might become a viable option for some people over the PS4 who mainly values portability and local multiplayer over graphical performance.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
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Considering what Switch I able to sell at +300 with a limited library and a bunch of core features like VC, Browser and Online system missing or being incomplete. Who know where it will end. Especially once the 3DS dies and the Switch replaces it completely.

Imagine that 2-3 years from now you could get a redesigned Switch for like 200 bucks with a massive library including many of Nintendos evergreen titles. The 3DS is still selling 6 years later based on that software library alone....i really wouldn't underestimate Switch overall potential - it's definitely higher than the 3DSes.
 

Cuburt

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Nov 14, 2012
6,298
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Given that we have multiple months of sales data now that show the Switch has great momentum and a nice tragectary under constrained supplies, I don't know why people here are attempting to refute an analysis firm's predictions based on prelaunch assumptions like the price is too high or there is not enough games. People are living in the past.

It has been said that the appeal of the Switch isn't just some vague hope that it sells like a handheld (in a market where people believe handhelds no longer sell), but that it captures the hearts of the diehard Nintendo fans that supported them through a lack luster Wii U and an initially underwhelming 3ds combined. Even without a more casual audience, overlapping consumers, and all the families that feel a Switch is too expensive (though I'd argue that kids getting their own individual Switch is less necessary than a 3DS since multiplayer is available on TV and on the go, which makes it a better deal for many families), just combining core handheld and console Nintendo fans should put them comfortably in range of the 3DS without having to "sell like a handheld", essentially because it's instead "selling like a Nintendo AAA handheld-and-console-development-teams-combined 1st party supported device with some of their biggest franchises already released in just the first 9 months".

I think this is analysts predicting that lapsed Nintendo fans (whether from the Wii days or further back) are interested in getting this as well as possibly other gamers who may be new to Nintendo. Just that the Switch is doing so well before even having it's first holiday shows great potential for the system.
 

inner-G

Banned
Jul 28, 2007
17,369
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Once you play it, it really does feel like the next SNES/PS2/DS so I can see why they're optimistic.
 

Fukuzatsu

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Aug 29, 2015
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If the Switch continues to receive games of the caliber of DOOM and Wolfenstein, the platform might become a viable option for some people over the PS4 who mainly values portability and local multiplayer over graphical performance.

I suspect that number isn't as big as some think, but even so I am sceptical of what ports Switch will ultimately get. The recent announcements of LA Noire, DOOM, and Wolfenstein are quite a boon, but it's important to remember that '3rd-party support', at least for Sony, is a much larger beast than just a few titles here and there.
 

DasPenguin

Member
Jul 31, 2014
1,289
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445
Finland
Not a chance. I'm even thinking 70M is optimistic, but certainly doable.

Has Switch taken off in Europe at all? Only thing I can find is "biggest launch" but then absolutely nothing since. They're consistently in stock over here too (UK)

Mario Oddyssey will almost certainly bring the numbers up here though, everyone loves Mario

Finland here, and I don't think they sell at all here. No marketing, no nothing. You go to a store and they always have two models in some corner next to a huge Playstation shelf.I guess Nintendo just doesn't care about smaller markets.
 

Sulik2

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Apr 17, 2012
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Excuse me while I laugh hysterically at that number of consoles. What are they smoking?
 

Cuburt

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Nov 14, 2012
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I'm not really sure why people here would think the PS5 would affect the Switch in any way. The strength of the Switch is it's portability, nobody buys it for the power.

Anyway I think it's obviously too early, but things could increase exponentially with the good WoM it gets and Nintendo actually making enough units.
I'd even go a step further and say the strength of the Switch is it's flexibility in adapting to how you want to play.

I think that is something many overlook because it's not just that you can play a game on TV and then on the bus, you can switch between the two seemlessly without skipping a beat using the exact same controllers. Or you can play with a full-sized gamepad if you wish. Or you can play it like a mini TV screen with your friends using the built-in controllers. You don't even have to leave your house to play it portability, because maybe you want to be comfortable laying down while playing on your couch or in your bed or briefly going into the other room. Even the way the sleep function works means gaming adapts to how and when you want to play rather than the other way around.

Once people realize the freedom that gives you, that is beyond just playing on the TV and then on the go, it's really hard to go back.
 

Lord_Byron28

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Nov 9, 2010
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I suspect that number isn't as big as some think, but even so I am sceptical of what ports Switch will ultimately get. The recent announcements of LA Noire, DOOM, and Wolfenstein are quite a boon, but it's important to remember that '3rd-party support', at least for Sony, is a much larger beast than just a few titles here and there.
Yeah but it's not as if the Switch isn't receiving other 3rd party support outside of those three titles and Skyrim. With the exception of Capcom and Level 5, all other major Japanese 3rd party developers and publishers seem to be full steam ahead on Switch. Switch has been receiving game announcements for titles that would have or did release on 3DS, Vita, Wii U and PS4 from Japanese developers. On top of indie developers. What's significant about those other titles is more significant western 3rd party support from 2K Games and Bethesda. Both of these big 3rd party publishers are non-existent on Nintendo platforms in recent memory. EA and Activision are also likely looking at Switch's sales and other support. They will support anything that sells decent so I'd expect to see more of their annual franchises release on Switch starting next year as well.
 

Zambayoshi

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Oct 13, 2014
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I think it's optimistic to predict that the Switch will even be around in its current form in 5 years. Yeah, there may be something called the Switch XL Lite Pro, but are we just going to bundle all hardware revisions into the same box where sales are concerned? If so, 130 million might be achieved, considering Switch will be Nintendo's ONLY hardware within a year or two (my prediction).
 
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I think it's optimistic to predict that the Switch will even be around in its current form in 5 years. Yeah, there may be something called the Switch XL Lite Pro, but are we just going to bundle all hardware revisions into the same box where sales are concerned? If so, 130 million might be achieved, considering Switch will be Nintendo's ONLY hardware within a year or two (my prediction).

Why wouldn't we bundle them all together? We have for Xbox, PS4, 3DS, DS, ect.
 
Apr 10, 2007
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I can see it, especially if Nintendo follows the smartphone iteration model. A new unit every year but each one is an evolution rather than a revolution. The last three models will always play the latest games, with last year's model getting a price drop.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
May 31, 2011
34,803
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I can see it, especially if Nintendo follows the smartphone iteration model. A new unit every year but each one is an evolution rather than a revolution. The last three models will always play the latest games, with last year's model getting a price drop.

There is like no reason for a company that couldn't care less about having the most recent tech to go down this road. They might do a half-step hardware upgrade but it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.

Also my mind might be remembering it incorrectly but didn't the Wii basically crater hard after 4 years? Like the sales were in steep decline well before the Wii U was out. I don't know how well you can predict sales for a thing 4+ years out either way but 130 million certainly is ambitious.
 

Biske

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Apr 5, 2016
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I could see it maybe.

Saw a Switch in the shelf tonight at the Walmart. A Splatoon 2 bundle at that. It's still a rare site
 
Apr 10, 2007
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Do AAA publishers take these analysis numbers seriously when considering support for a console, or are they more concerned about actual console sales numbers?

They probably get shareholder pressure to take it into account.

There is like no reason for a company that couldn't care less about having the most recent tech to go down this road. They might do a half-step hardware upgrade but it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.

Also my mind might be remembering it incorrectly but didn't the Wii basically crater hard after 4 years? Like the sales were in steep decline well before the Wii U was out. I don't know how well you can predict sales for a thing 4+ years out either way but 130 million certainly is ambitious.

They are already experimenting with it with the 3DS. There was essentially an iteration of the 3DS almost every year. The Switch tellls me that Nintendo is closely following the strategy of the smartphone makers.

The Wii cratered in year 4, yea because Nintendo suddenly stopped supporting it for whatever reason. I think they have learned this lesson hard.
 

Ecotic

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Sep 30, 2006
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0
1,010
130 million is incredibly optimistic. I think if Nintendo were to sell the 70 million as originally forecasted they could declare that a big win, although it depends on if a huge chunk of those 70 million is just cannibalizing the old 3DS market.

Part of me is just glad to see Nintendo having some success again. I want them to do more than just stay healthy and 'hang in there', I want them to thrive and thrill consumers again.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
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There is like no reason for a company that couldn't care less about having the most recent tech to go down this road. They might do a half-step hardware upgrade but it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.

Also my mind might be remembering it incorrectly but didn't the Wii basically crater hard after 4 years? Like the sales were in steep decline well before the Wii U was out. I don't know how well you can predict sales for a thing 4+ years out either way but 130 million certainly is ambitious.

Nintendo cares a out selling new hardware, not just the latest tech.

You would think after 3DS, 3DS XL, 2DS, n3DS, n3DS XL and 2DS XL people would know they roll.

They are totally gonna release new Switch versions every 1-2 year, with the goal of making core use upgrade to the latest hardware and maybe sell/gift their old system to family members or friend. They are gonna push for multiple Switches per household.
 

takriel

Member
Apr 11, 2012
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I'm sure Nintendo Switch will become a family of systems.

The current Switch as it is, but eventually lower price.

Switch Go (smaller 5 inch screen, joycons built in)

Switch Pro (more powerful unit, fully BC like New 3DS, DSi, GameBoy Color, etc)

I'm thinking 80m to a max of 110m lifetime sales. Betting on the lower end of that.
Switch Pro WHEN?
 

joecanada

Member
Nov 15, 2013
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Err, this prediction is really high even for me, and I’ve been damn bullish on Nintendo’s prospects for this hardware. I think the realistic / slightly optimistic even prediction is 80M lifetime, which is just about Wii U and 3DS sales combined.

Yeah I predicted slight decline at 60 million . This seems insane but who knows
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
May 31, 2011
34,803
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Nintendo cares a out selling new hardware, not just the latest tech.

You would think after 3DS, 3DS XL, 2DS, n3DS, n3DS XL and 2DS XL people would know they roll.

They are totally gonna release new Switch versions every 1-2 year, with the goal of making core use upgrade to the latest hardware and maybe sell/gift their old system to family members or friend. They are gonna push for multiple Switches per household.

Oh no I fully expect them to do like 5 versions of the Switch. Just like the 3DS though I don't think the actual hardware will change to the point where theres significant fragmentation in terms of older systems not being able to play games the same way you have with iOS/Android
 

Usobuko

Banned
Feb 3, 2013
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We live in a post mobile world and the ever increasing presence of steam that offers much more alternatives to play than just PS and Xbox as competitors. Especially mobile scene in Japan.

130m is irrational unless they includes Super Switch or Switch 2 etc.

Anyone down for betting money for fun?