-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022
- Thread starter Skittzo0413
- Start date
ToysAndMoreClub
Member
I don't think that's as far fetched as some people think, but it's still a large amount.
For example:
I've already bought two Nintendo Switch systems and will buy a third one once the Super Mario Odyssey bundles comes out. (One for myself and two for my two kids). And if the wife wants one, I will get a fourth one.
Nintendo Switch is the first system I would have bought like that. Usually people get one, maybe two PS4 or Xbox One systems for a household. Switch has the chance of selling a system per person in a house.
For example:
I've already bought two Nintendo Switch systems and will buy a third one once the Super Mario Odyssey bundles comes out. (One for myself and two for my two kids). And if the wife wants one, I will get a fourth one.
Nintendo Switch is the first system I would have bought like that. Usually people get one, maybe two PS4 or Xbox One systems for a household. Switch has the chance of selling a system per person in a house.
Switch will sell better than 3DS, so you better start preparing
After Pokémon Go it feels like the company's fortunes completely improved. It was a major turning point for them.
I credit Iwata with their success.
The Hermit
Member
Easily beat that
Heckler456
Banned
Not really. A good design choice is a good design choice, no matter where it comes from. I think that a pokemon game will sell no matter what package it comes in, but I'd be supremely disappointed if we'd be getting a slightly spiffed up portable pokemon game on the Switch instead of what it could potentially be.
OrbitalBeard
Member
It'll be interesting to see if something like this becomes normal over time. Momentum will need to continue and the price will need to drop first, obviously.
I worked retail during the height of the DS and it was completely normal for a family to purchase two or three DS systems during the holidays.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
I think you don't have to use those strawmans for this.If you didn't have that attitude when you were talking to him,he wouldn't be that harsh to you.
I took Nintendo at their word when they put out that ad. I think the Switch (and its relatively frequent revisions) will be around for a long time. It's eventually going to be the host of the vast majority of Nintendo's entire software catalog. Its hybrid nature will allow it to fuck with both the "I prefer to play on handhelds" and "I have no interest in portability" markets.
Eventually, the Switch is going to drop in price enough, it's going to have enough Zeldas, Marios and Pokemons + the back catalog that it will be silly not to just go get a Switch why don't you have a Switch yet Steve you idiot. If they do the Netflix-style "here's all our big games from NES through GameCube" emulation thing that I feel like is a no-brainer (and the only excuse I'll accept for their VC stalling), then that's just icing on the "you're a goddamn idiot for not getting a Switch, Steve" cake.
Plus, I think the AAA software developer bubble is going to fucking explode relatively soon. I think the modest specs of the Switch will provide a good, built in excuse to scale back budgets and focus more on smaller, more manageable, less risky projects and serve as a stopgap between the bubble bursting and all of the Bungies of the world moving on from Destiny to "Clash of War Clanz Game of Fight play now for free on IOS and Android."
I don't know about the next five years but 130 million ltd is probably a foregone conclusion for the Switch as a platform.
I took Nintendo at their word when they put out that ad. I think the Switch (and its relatively frequent revisions) will be around for a long time. It's eventually going to be the host of the vast majority of Nintendo's entire software catalog. Its hybrid nature will allow it to fuck with both the "I prefer to play on handhelds" and "I have no interest in portability" markets.
Eventually, the Switch is going to drop in price enough, it's going to have enough Zeldas, Marios and Pokemons + the back catalog that it will be silly not to just go get a Switch why don't you have a Switch yet Steve you idiot. If they do the Netflix-style "here's all our big games from NES through GameCube" emulation thing that I feel like is a no-brainer and the only excuse I'll accept for their VC stalling, then that's just icing on the "you're a goddamn idiot for not getting a Switch, Steve" cake.
Plus, I think the AAA software developer bubble is going to fucking explode relatively soon. I think the modest specs of the Switch will provide a good, built in excuse to scale back budgets and focus more on smaller, more manageable, less risky projects and serve as a stopgap between the bubble bursting and all of the Bungies of the world moving on from Destiny to "Clash of War Clanz Game of Fight play now for free on IOS and Android."
I totally believe that today's Credit Suisse estimate is out of mind, but I must admit that the ADV you just posted is ACE.
BobbyColtrane
Member
I have one for me and my sons share one. Put me down for one more so they don't have to share over the next year or so.
See, haters, there's one more unit sold right there!!
See, haters, there's one more unit sold right there!!
No offense but your behavior in here hasn't exactly been "not fussed", in fact you've been vigilantly defensive. Frankly I don't care what you're looking for or not, I'm not here to cushion my criticism, I just want to talk sales and not your feelings.
OrbitalBeard
Member
It's very cool, but I'm almost certain it's fan made.
Weltall Zero
Member
Can Nintendo even make that many of them? They seem to be manufacturing in the ballpark of 1.5m units a month, if that. That's 90 million units by 2022 unless they find a way to ramp up production considerably.
I took Nintendo at their word when they put out that ad. I think the Switch (and its relatively frequent revisions) will be around for a long time. It's eventually going to be the host of the vast majority of Nintendo's entire software catalog. Its hybrid nature will allow it to fuck with both the "I prefer to play on handhelds" and "I have no interest in portability" markets.
Eventually, the Switch is going to drop in price enough, it's going to have enough Zeldas, Marios and Pokemons + the back catalog that it will be silly not to just go get a Switch why don't you have a Switch yet Steve you idiot. If they do the Netflix-style "here's all our big games from NES through GameCube" emulation thing that I feel like is a no-brainer (and the only excuse I'll accept for their VC stalling), then that's just icing on the "you're a goddamn idiot for not getting a Switch, Steve" cake.
Plus, I think the AAA software developer bubble is going to fucking explode relatively soon. I think the modest specs of the Switch will provide a good, built in excuse to scale back budgets and focus more on smaller, more manageable, less risky projects and serve as a stopgap between the bubble bursting and all of the Bungies of the world moving on from Destiny to "Clash of War Clanz Game of Fight play now for free on IOS and Android."
I don't know about the next five years but 130 million ltd is probably a foregone conclusion for the Switch as a platform.
this is a good post.
Theonik
Member
Doubtful. Also by 2020? You understand that Nintendo can't even shift much more than 10m this year? Say they can double this to 20m in 2018, they'd need to do an average of 25m for 2019 and 2020.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Again, it depends on how the situation with NAND and RAM develops, and how much Nintendo are willing to pay in relation to that.
Someone from Nintendo Spain tweeted it out but it's certainly possible that it was originally a fan made creation: https://www.google.com/amp/s/press-...-nes-ad-recreated-nintendo-switch-reveal/amp/
Either way, I think it's pretty poignant and goes with some of the "look at all of the consoles we've had before and how we took what we learned from each and applied them to the Switch" messaging from the reveal event.
OrbitalBeard
Member
It was made by Nintendo of Spain PR person, I think?
Btw, it is lovely
It was retweeted by @NintendoES.
It was made by this individual on their personal Twitter account.
Honestly not sure if they work for Nintendo or not, but it's not an official ad.
Jaded Alyx
Member
Theonik
Member
Consider the following: For Nintendo to have any chance at those numbers they need to hit a more competitive price-point /and/ be able to produce more units. I don't think they are willing to pay more for RAM taking a hit to make that work so it looks like Nintendo is satisfied with selling less units.
I said by 2020. I will be eating no hats. No siiiir.
Pickle a hat
Give War A Chance
Member
That is ambitious, to say the least.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
What attitude? Let's stop acting as if what I said was the height of rudeness. I explained my position. I think it's delusional to so easily suggest that Switch will be some kind of PS2-level success. Take it or leave it.
That makes two of us.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Certainly without the shortages easing and prices going back down at least. If they're able to get more bang for their buck, then maybe, but until then I do imagine they're going to have something of an upper limit for how much they're wanting to spend.
Prithee Be Careful
Industry Professional
Theonik
Member
I don't think the shortages will ease any time soon. Nintendo is competing with much bigger orders from companies actually shipping to mass market. Apple alone is shipping more than 200m orders a year.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Apple especially is gonna be troublesome with their new iPhone launch.
It's foolish to claim PSP level sales are Switch's absolute ceiling. By your own admission we don't have a good handle on the true demand for the system so I'm still not understanding why you put everything behind this seemingly random figure?
Fwiw, that same guy clarified that Nintendo Spain made it: https://twitter.com/VicJunquera/status/818529432080150528
It's way too "on message" for the Switch reveal for it to be a coincidence.
And NoA is downright silly for not borrowing it and pointing out that it's a play on their NES ad. It's fucking brilliant.
Skittzo0413
Member
They're already ahead of the 3DS worldwide and the stock situation has improved drastically at least in the US. Their official forecast is 10 million for this FY but the rumor is they're aiming for 18 million, which would give them 20 million by next April.
May wanna prep that hat.
EDIT: 130 by 2021 seems outrageous, I agree, and I'm willing to bet that will not happen. Now, 130 by the end of 2021 is slightly more possible but still ridiculous, but I also think this can continue to track ahead of the 3DS this year and then explode a bit in 2018 and 2019 to be closer to the DS rate.
All of this depends entirely on Nintendo continuing to nail everything software wise, which isn't guaranteed but is actually looking promising nonetheless.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Hedging my bets because I think 130m is outrageous. Fair enough if you think my 80m ceiling prediction is foolish though.
LiquidSolid
Member
To use your own little shtick:
So why would anyone listen to your take on the Switch when you were way off on Nintendo's last console? The 3DS too, for that matter. /s
While I enjoy looking back at old, wrong predictions and laughing at them, dragging up old posts just to rub it in someone's face and try and discredit their opinion is some petty shit.
I think 130m (in just 5 years no less) is outrageous too. But so is your hard arbitrary ceiling.
And to clairify I think 80m is a fine target and not at all unreasonable. The issue is claiming that's peak potential, while in the next breath saying you have no clue what the actual sales potential is. You're promoting a logical fallacy.
OrbitalBeard
Member
That's weird as hell. He posted it first and they retweeted it.
I guess it was maybe something they were never given permission to create by NCL, so they went this angle.
Edit - Actually, maybe it was used in a PR e-mail invitation/promotion for the press and he just posted it on Twitter. That'd make sense.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
That's due to supply problems not demand.
Theonik
Member
Please explain how they are selling 70m between 2018 and 2019.
That doesn't really matter. Nintendo needs to be able to sell these units by 2020. I don't care how.
D.Lo
Member
130m by 2020 is indeed outrageous. I think it's likely impossible, it essentially means 'bigger hit than Wii or DS'. It's PS2 numbers in half the time. Crazy.
130m LTD though, with no time limit, is possible, if still a complete unknown.
80m LTD (aka Wii U+3DS) is IMO maybe 60/40. As in a 40% chance it will sell more than that.
40-50m is probably the floor at this point. Ceilings as a rule make no sense because anything can happen, new console selling smash hits come from nowhere (eg Pokemon, Wii Sports), even mid franchise (GTA3, Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter, COD4), and consoles can even take-off mid generation if the right thing happens (Kinect, Pokemon).
Holy shit, well played. I was super wrong on the Wii U in that post. It had had a very good launch at that point (record numbers etc), but it's absolutely incredible how they screwed it up so badly. Ironically even the person I was arguing was lowballing was also too high at 20+ million. I'd turned my opinion around on Wii U within a year and had forgotten all about that.
3DS is still on track to hit 80 million though. It will likely not hit 100 but there's no order of magnitude wrong there though.
Prithee Be Careful
Industry Professional
Personally, I think it all depends on how parents take to it. The Wii and DS both sold a huge amount of their stock to parents for their children. Parents still by far and away prefer Nintendo as a child-friendly environment, but there's certainly a question that hangs over pricepoint and possibly the perceived fragitlity/unsuitability of something styled much more as modern consumer hardware than a 'toy'. Ports of games like Wolfenstein II and DOOM, might compound this and push parents to the 3DS in the meantime.
The Wii was a huge success, but achieved much of that selling to non-gamers (the 'blue sky' approach, as it was termed when I worked there). The Switch doesn't necessarily have these factors in its favour, making the predictions for long term sales diffiicult.
The Wii was a huge success, but achieved much of that selling to non-gamers (the 'blue sky' approach, as it was termed when I worked there). The Switch doesn't necessarily have these factors in its favour, making the predictions for long term sales diffiicult.
That's a good theory. Either way, it seems weird to me that nobody wants to take credit for an awesome ad lol.
Skittzo0413
Member
Good point, I missed your initial post which said by 2020. I thought you were talking through 2020 for some reason.
I do think they can get close to 20m this year actually, but another 60m in the next two is incredibly unlikely. The analyst in the article expects the peak year to be around 31m, so if that actually happens then we might see 80m by 2020 but that's incredibly optimistic in my opinion.
So nevermind, unprep your hat.