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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022

Fiendcode

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Jan 15, 2017
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Switch outperforming 3DS 6 months into its life doesn't exactly paint the long term picture. No one on either side of the fence will really understand how this thing will do long term until the stock situation normalises and we have many more months worth of data. My prediction stands just as much chance of happening as your +100m prediction.
I never gave a prediction (+100m or otherwise), I was just pointing out the obvious issue with your generous ceiling.
 

Vanille

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Dec 9, 2009
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ok

it still lacked a mainline pokemon game, one of the best selling video game franchises of all time, which the Switch will receive

The point is that it had Wii Sports which was a bigger system seller than Pokemon could ever hope to be. And it still barely managed 100 million.
 

Si2k78

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Mar 22, 2017
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Switch is viral. The more is sold, the more word of mouth it will get. People will play FIFA, Doom, Mario, Splatoon everywhere and others will take notice. 130 is pretty much a lock.

The system practically sells itself.
 

Skittzo0413

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Jan 8, 2016
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The Wii cratered in year 4, yea because Nintendo suddenly stopped supporting it for whatever reason. I think they have learned this lesson hard.

The reason is well documented, they had shifted mostly to 3DS support for its launch. With the Switch being their sole platform this is no longer going to be an issue.

Whether the Switch achieves this or not is not that important IMO. The fact that it is receiving this kind of "outrageous" predictions is a good sign, and shows that people are taking notice and it's not the WiiU all over agin.

Yup, I said this much in the OP. I knew this would devolve a bit into console wars but what's really the amazing thing here is that Nintendo is bringing out this massive investor confidence again. Nobody could have predicted this a year ago.
 

MatrixMan.EXE

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Sep 1, 2014
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I never gave a prediction (+100m or otherwise), I was just pointing out the obvious issue with your generous ceiling.

I disagree that there's an issue with it. Like I said, until we have more long term data and the stock situation normalises, all of us are spitballing. Switch struggling to hit 80m is just as likely as it easily topping it. I'm excited to see what happens, personally. I'd like to be wrong to be honest.
 
Aug 15, 2017
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The point is that it had Wii Sports which was a bigger system seller than Pokemon could ever hope to be. And it still barely managed 100 million.

The single most lucrative franchise, not just gaming, in history, ever, is now not a big deal compared to... Wii Sports.

That's another one then to add to my list on the previous page.
 

z0m3le

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www.notenoughshaders.com
So I was trying to figure out how you'd even sell that many so fast, but if they are using march 31st, 2023 as the 2022 fy end, that could break down to something seriously optimistic but possible.

FY 2016 2.7m ltd
FY 2017 20m ltd (17.3m)
FY 2018 40m ltd (20m)
FY 2019 63m ltd (23m)
FY 2020 88m ltd (25m)
FY 2021 110m ltd (22m)
FY 2022 130m ltd (20m)

Seems even optimistic to me, and I'm pretty bullish on Nintendo, but it's not the 5 years I first thought it was, this is possible if it sells like the Wii but with a longer sales life cycle thanks to Nintendo's support and being far more future proof of a platform than Wii was.

Switch does benefit from revisions that Wii really never got, at least "upgrades" like the DS and 3DS received, and while Switch doesn't have a Wii Sports, it does seem to have a long life cycle infront of it, with Nvidia making comments about 20 year relationship and Nintendo is a poor position to introduce a new handheld that isn't part of the Switch brand.

Remember Nintendo didn't just sell 100m+ Wii units and 150m+ DS units, it sold about 260m gaming units during this time, if Switch doesn't have the driving force behind Wii and handheld gaming has suffered, Switch could still easily hit 130m LTD in just over 6 years with even a 50% reduction to their overall market share, and while some people might point out that Wii and DS had overlap, I assume Switch revisions will have overlaps too, I've owned 3 DS systems and 2 3DS systems, I'll pick up the next Switch revision with a power increase to put it on par with current gen consoles and the power increase after that.

Ultimately, my prediction for the Switch is 100m by April 1st 2022, but I don't expect the platform to see a replacement for at least 5 years after that. DS lasted 8 years, but I expect Switch to last 10 years minimum, so 150m? well given enough time and enough sustained demand, sure anything is possible.
 

Markoman

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May 3, 2015
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Hm, don't know. Kinda sounds unrealistic. But who knows, especially once the price gets down/ cheaper, smaller model arrives.
 

D.Lo

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It's pretty sad that you felt so hurt by my comment that you trawled through months of my post history to make a "gotcha" post.
You're reading into it too much with these emotional terms like 'sad' 'hurt' lol.

It's really not hard to look up post history. I just find it hilarious when people now doubting 100m is even possible were just a few months ago doubting it would do better than the Wii U. Your prediction then was way off, why would anyone listen to your take on the console now?

Your argument makes no sense. If it's silly to rule out 100m then we may as well not rule out any number. My previous prediction was based on my opinion. Sure, things turned out better than I expected and I've said as much. My prediction now is based on what we're actually seeing happen. Anything goes, but seeing the Switch as it is now, I see it topping at around 80m at best, which isn't even bad.
~100m is a perfectly reasonable metric to not rule out.

~100m is a level of the mega successful consoles, only five have gotten there (Game Boy, PS1, PS2, DS, Wii). A few others have gotten to the 80 tier (GBA, PSP, 360, PS3, 3DS). Switch's current pattern matches PS2/DS/Wii so it is on a path to have that potential. Long way to go, but it already had the 'strong first half year sales' building block, which 360, PS3, and 3DS didn't.

This is completely different from using something like 200m, which is world record phenomenon territory and has no precedent.
 

hanspampel

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Oct 5, 2016
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The success depends of 5 different factors

Price
SKUs/Models
Content
Competition
Execution

If everything is perfect for Nintendo sure this could happen. But right now there is no data to back this up. It's ap pure speculative bet. We don't know Nintendos plan and what the future brings.
And the Switch market is way harder to predict than the classic console market, were we have 3 years of sufficient data already and pretty much know Microsofts and Sonys strategy going forward.


I always thought up to 100m could be possible
 
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Is anyone actually having trouble finding a Switch these days? My local Target and Best Buy each have about 6 every time I go there (at least for the last couple months), with a mixture of Neon and Gray.

Maybe they'll become hard to find again during the holidays, but I don't think it's ever, ever going to break 130m. My estimate is more in the ballpark of 50-75m lifetime, as long as Nintendo keeps pumping out games at a steady pace.
 

Fiendcode

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Jan 15, 2017
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I disagree that there's an issue with it. Like I said, until we have more long term data and the stock situation normalises, all of us are spitballing. Switch struggling to hit 80m is just as likely as it easily topping it. I'm excited to see what happens, personally. I'd like to be wrong to be honest.
I agree with your assessment that a longer term analysis is tough at this point, not only because of the severe supply constraints so far masking true system potential but I'd also suggest there's a general longer term uncertainty in the console industry. Which also leaves me a bit perplexed as to why you'd cling to an arbitrary hard ceiling figure in the first place? But then again I guess you love to be wrong so here's hoping.
 

MatrixMan.EXE

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Sep 1, 2014
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You're reading into it too much with these emotional terms like 'sad' 'hurt' lol.

It's really not hard to look up post history. I just find it hilarious when people now doubting 100m is even possib;e were just a few months ago doubting it would do better than the Wii U. Your prediction then was way off, why would anyone listen to your take on the console now?

I don't care who listens to my take on the console. I'm not an analyst, I'm a gamer offering up their opinion on a message board. My prediction back then was off, but how does that invalidate my opinions now? I guess we should also ignore all of the people on GAF that predicted PS4 would bomb? Or all of the people here that were adamant that Wii U would dominate?

I agree with your assessment that a longer term analysis is tough at this point, not only because of the severe supply constraints so far masking true system potential but I'd also suggest there's a general longer term uncertainty in the console industry. Which also leaves me a bit perplexed as to why you'd cling to an arbitrary hard ceiling figure in the first place? But then again I guess you love to be wrong so here's hoping.

Yeah I'm not fussed. I just like discussing this stuff. Not looking for validation from other gaffers on sales predictions.
 

JonnyDBrit

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May 14, 2015
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Yes. 5.8 or 5.6 million
Don't remeber exactly
Have a look at the Nintendo IR page

4.7 Million according to the IR figures, but that's from June 30th. Based on Japanese sales alone since, it's north of 5.3 million, and I doubt it would be too difficult to see it as hovering around 6 million somewhere.

Next month is the release of the Six Month Earnings report, so I guess we'll have an update then?
 

Skittzo0413

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Jan 8, 2016
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Yes. 5.8 or 5.6 million
Don't remeber exactly
Have a look at the Nintendo IR page

I don't think this is true. Their last officially reported number as of the end of June was 4.7m, and it should be closer to 6.5 or 7m worldwide now going by US and JP numbers.
 

D.Lo

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Aug 20, 2006
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I don't care who listens to my take on the console. I'm not an analyst, I'm a gamer offering up their opinion on a message board. My prediction back then was off, but how does that invalidate my opinions now? I guess we should also ignore all of the people on GAF that predicted PS4 would bomb? Or all of the people here that were adamant that Wii U would dominate?
Lol yes, anyone who made such predictions with any kind of certainty proved themselves wrong too and should have any future predictions taken less seriously.

Yes you've changed your opinion as things have played out, but then you still used disparaging words like 'delusional' to ridicule other people's take on things. Just like how you used 'people are kidding themselves' last time. If you've been outright proven so wrong in the past, it's best to temper your language when attacking others for their predictions.
 
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Lol yes, anyone who made such predictions with any kind of certainty proved themselves wrong too and should have any future predictions taken less seriously.

Yes you've changed your opinion as things have played out, but then you used disparaging words like 'delusional' to ridicule other people's take on things. If you've been outright proven so wrong in the past, it's best to temper your language when attacking others for their predictions.

.

Don't get why that user feels the way they do. They got their initial hot take prediction waaaaaay off and are now calling others deluded only 6 months on, and only the optimists too which is very interesting.

There's nowt wrong with being wrong, even really wrong as is the case here, but maybe just think about that before trying to assert your stance/predictions/opinions as the only ones that are not deluded?

It's not hard lol.
 

Vanille

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Dec 9, 2009
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The single most lucrative franchise, not just gaming, in history, ever, is now not a big deal compared to... Wii Sports.

That's another one then to add to my list on the previous page.

In terms of raw system selling potential? Yeah, Wii Sports was on a completely different level. Keyword being "was".
 

hanspampel

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Oct 5, 2016
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4.7 Million according to the IR figures, but that's from June 30th. Based on Japanese sales alone since, it's north of 5.3 million, and I doubt it would be too difficult to see it as hovering around 6 million somewhere.

Next month is the release of the Six Month Earnings report, so I guess we'll have an update then?

I don't think this is true. Their last officially reported number as of the end of June was 4.7m, and it should be closer to 6.5 or 7m worldwide now going by US and JP numbers.

Okay so i mixed up 4 and 5
My apologies
 

MatrixMan.EXE

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Sep 1, 2014
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Lol yes, anyone who made such predictions with any kind of certainty proved themselves wrong too and should have any future predictions taken less seriously.

Yes you've changed your opinion as things have played out, but then you used disparaging words like 'delusional' to ridicule other people's take on things. If you've been outright proven so wrong in the past, it's best to temper your language when attacking others for their predictions.

Sorry, Mom. If my opinion is that the prediction the guy is making is delusional then I'm free to say that. You don't have to listen to what I have to say. No one does. Stop being ridiculous.
 

Skulldead

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Nov 20, 2014
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The point is that it had Wii Sports which was a bigger system seller than Pokemon could ever hope to be. And it still barely managed 100 million.

I think the same thing, wii sport make was the biggest system seller i ever see in as a employes in a videogame store. It was just crazy to see how much poeple that bought that system that never bought any video game console before.... I don't think switch can hit that level again, no even a pokemon game.

But the ps2 got 155 million unit and it took 12 years.... the 130 millions unit make no sense at all.
 

gtj1092

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Feb 16, 2008
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I never said that at all. But I see people who come here daily predicting 40 million lifetime and wonder why only the predictions on the more positive end of things are being considered ludicrous.

It's going to sell *well* over 10 million in its first 12 months on the market which only includes one holiday period and I'm to take 40 million seriously? Come on...

So the people calling this a lock and those predicting 200 million aren't crazy?
 
Aug 15, 2017
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So the people calling this a lock and those predicting 200 million aren't crazy?

What is difficult about what I said that is causing this confusion?

I never said anything like that I agree with the article. I just said that there's equally ludicrous downplaying and lowballing that is not being called out anywhere near as much.

It's not hard.
 

CaviarMeths

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Mar 20, 2015
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Man, this thing. Everyone expected the Switch to bomb like the Wii U and now that it's clear that that's not going to happen, analysts are going nuts trying to get a read on it. 130m is insane and highly unlikely, but I think 100m is on the table. It's nearly impossible to tell until Nintendo has the supply issues sorted. Right now we have no idea how high demand actually is. All we know is that it's > supply.

You can absolutely expect revisions/family to bolster numbers though. We might even be looking at a GB/GBC-like "cheat" in the numbers.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Jun 1, 2013
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To the ppl saying Switch is far ahead of PS4 in Japan...I thought you guys meant LTD.

I see that's not what y'all meant.
 

Bitch Pudding

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Oct 3, 2014
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The success depends of 5 different factors

Price
SKUs/Models
Content
Competition
Execution

If everything is perfect for Nintendo sure this could happen. But right now there is no data to back this up. It's ap pure speculative bet. We don't know Nintendos plan and what the future brings.
And the Switch market is way harder to predict than the classic console market, were we have 3 years of sufficient data already and pretty much know Microsofts and Sonys strategy going forward.


I always thought up to 100m could be possible

I agree with this.

We don't know yet what Nintendo has in mind for the future. 2/3DS maybe abandoned at some point for example, with Nintendo completely focussing on the Switch platform. They also may introduce a mobile-only SKU as well as as home console-only one (which both would be cheaper than the hybrid one). Getting some 3rd party support momentum wouldn't probably hurt, either.

Long story short, yes, 100mn+ is possible indeed, but not at it's current price and 3rd party support level.
 

Heckler456

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Apr 21, 2016
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I'm definitely buying one at some point, if only to play Zelda. And I haven't owned a Nintendo console since... Heck, probably the N64.

By the way, are we foreseeing an actual 3D pokemon game at some point?
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
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Switch is quite expensive for a Nintendo system but is performing already on a very high level. People bring up DS, Wii and even 3DS post price drop as. Examples for why Switch can't reach those high numbers, but these systems were much cheaper than the Switch right now.

The sales potential is very high, once they can get to 250 including a game like the OG Wii we are really gonna see what is possible with the device. Add in a more compact smaller version got sub200 replacing the 3DS completely and even more is possible.

Nintendo usually sells +80 million systems per generation, they managed to sell that much eve though they had plenty of screw ups with the 3DS launch and the WiiU later. Switch is starting out very strong from Day 1...something that only the Wii managed to do, while being priced lower... Especially compared to the competition.

"This isn't even my final form" is a fitting statement when it comes to Switch...once the price drops a bit and the big handheld IPs like Pokemon and Animal Crossing move over, we can talk.
 

bionic77

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That seems like a reach.

I won't guess numbers but I wonder how fast they can drop the price and how low they can sell this. $150/$200 in 3 years seems doable.

Doubt they can get it below that.
 

Zedark

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Feb 22, 2016
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I'm definitely buying one at some point, if only to play Zelda. And I haven't owned a Nintendo console since... Heck, probably the N64.

By the way, are we foreseeing an actual 3D pokemon game at some point?

Do you mean "Pokémon: Breath of the Wild" or the next mainline Pokémon? The latter has been confirmed already, but I wouldn't hold my breath for the former.
 

D.Lo

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Sorry, Mom. If my opinion is that the prediction the guy is making is delusional then I'm free to say that. You don't have to listen to what I have to say. No one does. Stop being ridiculous.
When your own predictions have been so far off in the (very recent!) past, you forfeit the right to describe someone else's prediction as stupid or delusional. Surely, given you were so wrong in the past, a more appropriate response would be to have some humility and treat others with more respect.
 

giapel

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Apr 12, 2013
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Why are we even comparing to the 3DS? The 3DS was always a hard sell, in the face of dwindling handheld sales, a monumental rise of mobile, and an impressive(on paper) competitor product. And the vibe in general wasn't very positive (hence ambassador program etc...)
In contrast, the switch sells itself. Mobile is still huge, but it has now settled a bit and people realise what genres they can and can't get. And let's face it, mobile won't get Zelda, Mario and Splatoon type of games. The competition in the handheld space is dead. So in that sense, Nintendo's proposition is not similar to any other product. And the vibe since the beggining has been incredible positive. This is a product that people actually want.
Oh, and of course it helps that Nintendo's software teams are completely on fire!
Any predictions based on past products performance is irrelevant. So it could end at 70M, it could end at 100M, it could end at 130M. But how it's tracking against the 3DS or the PS4 or the Wii isn't really insightful.
 

Heckler456

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Apr 21, 2016
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Do you mean "Pokémon: Breath of the Wild" or the next mainline Pokémon? The latter has been confirmed already, but I wouldn't hold my breath for the former.

I'm not expecting anything to the scale of Breath of the Wild, but basically something akin to a modern digimon game, if a bit more expansive than that.
 

JonnyDBrit

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May 14, 2015
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Switch is quite expensive for a Nintendo system but is performing already on a very high level. People bring up DS, Wii and even 3DS post price drop as. Examples for why Switch can't reach those high numbers, but these systems were much cheaper than the Switch right now.

The sales potential is very high, once they can get to 250 including a game like the OG Wii we are really gonna see what is possible with the device. Add in a more compact smaller version got sub200 replacing the 3DS completely and even more is possible.

Nintendo usually sells +80 million systems per generation, they managed to sell that much eve though they had plenty of screw ups with the 3DS launch and the WiiU later. Switch is starting out very strong from Day 1...something that only the Wii managed to do, while being priced lower... Especially compared to the competition.

"This isn't even my final form" is a fitting statement when it comes to Switch...once the price drops a bit and the big handheld IPs like Pokemon and Animal Crossing move over, we can talk.

Japan's market makes for an interesting comparison in this regard, because the Switch is selling close to the 3DS, but the Switch is supply constrained, and as you say, more expensive. There is untapped potential yet.

For me it really is dependent on how/when Nintendo are able to get the price down, or release a cheaper form factor - which to be honest isn't entirely in their hands.
 
Aug 15, 2017
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Switch is quite expensive for a Nintendo system but is performing already on a very high level. People bring up DS, Wii and even 3DS post price drop as. Examples for why Switch can't reach those high numbers, but these systems were much cheaper than the Switch right now.

The sales potential is very high, once they can get to 250 including a game like the OG Wii we are really gonna see what is possible with the device. Add in a more compact smaller version got sub200 replacing the 3DS completely and even more is possible.

Nintendo usually sells +80 million systems per generation, they managed to sell that much eve though they had plenty of screw ups with the 3DS launch and the WiiU later. Switch is starting out very strong from Day 1...something that only the Wii managed to do, while being priced lower... Especially compared to the competition.

"This isn't even my final form" is a fitting statement when it comes to Switch...once the price drops a bit and the big handheld IPs like Pokemon and Animal Crossing move over, we can talk.

Yeah very good post, and this is why all predictions here aren't worth anything really, it's just way too early to predict with any certainty.

When will Metroid Prime 4/Pokémon/Smash/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart 9 release? Will Nintendo have another smash hit new IP within the next few years? What about 3rd parties? It's only going to get more support from here on in surely? Are they going to go smaller & cheaper with revisions, or try to take the tech to a new level with a Switch Pro? How will their mobile efforts affect things? What about compliantly devices, VR/AR etc will we see anything like that to drive sales & interest?

All those questions with very, very little to go on along with you excellent post about the inevitable price drop and hardware redesigns.

We just don't know.
 

CaviarMeths

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I'm not expecting anything to the scale of Breath of the Wild, but basically something akin to a modern digimon game, if a bit more expansive than that.

Doesn't it seem backwards for Digimon to be taking design cues from Pokemon? I mean one sells a couple orders of magnitude greater than the other.
 

MatrixMan.EXE

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Sep 1, 2014
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When your own predictions have been so far off in the (very recent!) past, you forfeit the right to describe someone else's prediction as stupid or delusional. Surely, given you were so wrong in the past, a more appropriate response would be to have some humility and treat others with more respect.

Firstly, I never even said the Switch would bomb. I said that it would only appeal to Nintendo fans which so far, isn't actually that far away from the truth. How it breaks into the mainstream or into the PC/PS4/XB1 market remains to be seen.

Secondly, no? You seem to have a vendetta against my previous posts when there are plenty of posters on this forum that have made wrong predictions on and haven't shown the same humility you're essentially scolding me for not having. I can think of several posters who ridiculed me when for months I said the next MH game wouldn't appear on Nintendo platforms and I'm not seeing any humility from them. Do I care? Not really. They were wrong, I was right but I'm not expecting them to come and apologise or whatever. To that end, if I think a post is ludicrous then I'll point it out. You're free to as well. As you were.
 

cw_sasuke

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Sep 9, 2006
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3DS was a portable system released in 2011 that took 6years to get its own version of Minecraft meanwhile Switch is getting titles like Skyrim, Rocket League and Doom in its first year.

Nothing against the 3DS and its great library of exclusives.... But Switch as a gaming system and a product just has a way higher potential.