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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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TheContact

Member
Feelsbadman. If we get shut down and there isn’t any small business relief my wife could lose everything she worked for. Can’t deal with a second wave. Please wear masks and wash your hands my dudes. Just watched my friend leave work early with symptoms.
2rKzfm0.jpg
 

Joe T.

Member
Feelsbadman. If we get shut down and there isn’t any small business relief my wife could lose everything she worked for. Can’t deal with a second wave. Please wear masks and wash your hands my dudes. Just watched my friend leave work early with symptoms.
2rKzfm0.jpg

My brother held a similar position and we got into a heated argument because of it earlier this year, he was blaming the problems his company was facing on people for not wearing masks. That just doesn't fly, not when you're looking out your window and every one is mindlessly following orders and even going beyond what the government has recommended. Some people in my neighborhood are jumping in the street even when there's a good bit of traffic just to avoid coming within six feet of a person. It's madness and it has done absolutely nothing to slow the spread.

The numbers are artificially inflated and the government is using those useless test results to screw over small businesses. Channel your energy/anger towards the frauds taking you for a fool, not the people doing their best to live a somewhat dignified life.

My brother's since changed his tune. The truth is more stubborn than I am, it will get you sooner or later.
 

Liljagare

Member
Umm. What are you talking about? 35 people test positive and somehow you think this means there is a new strain? Because 35 people got it? That is your evidence? 35 people? Is this still science or are we just messing around now?

I think? No, this is what happened in Norway yesterday, I just reported it.

35 people got diagnosed, Norway quarantined 1000 people, , the doctors think from observation it is a new strain, was my english really that bad in the post?

My evidence? Dude, read again please.
 
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TheContact

Member
My brother held a similar position and we got into a heated argument because of it earlier this year, he was blaming the problems his company was facing on people for not wearing masks. That just doesn't fly, not when you're looking out your window and every one is mindlessly following orders and even going beyond what the government has recommended. Some people in my neighborhood are jumping in the street even when there's a good bit of traffic just to avoid coming within six feet of a person. It's madness and it has done absolutely nothing to slow the spread.

The numbers are artificially inflated and the government is using those useless test results to screw over small businesses. Channel your energy/anger towards the frauds taking you for a fool, not the people doing their best to live a somewhat dignified life.

My brother's since changed his tune. The truth is more stubborn than I am, it will get you sooner or later.

masks help, washing your hands help, maintaining social distancing helps. there isn't an argument you can genuinely make against that. the argument you can make is the repercussions of those things. (i have 2 kids in school and remote learning fucking sucks, my wife's business she worked so hard for was shut down for months, other small businesses can't recuperate even with the minimal stimulus loans they got, people can only be told to do something for so long until they can't take it anymore, etc...)

my boss is on trump's re-election campaign and he's been the biggest advocate I know of adhering to CDC guidelines and we've done a great job at making sure covid hasn't spread more than it can. covid doesn't care what political party you belong to. if we get hit with a second wave because people are fed up or don't think masks work, all they are doing is fucking over everyone else.
 
I think? No, this is what happened in Norway yesterday, I just reported it.

35 people got diagnosed, Norway quarantined 1000 people, , the doctors think from observation it is a new strain, was my english really that bad in the post?

My evidence? Lulz, reading comprehension much?
I guess I’m confused because you provided no link. Now obviously if it’s only in Norwegian, it wouldn’t be of use anyway. The only evidence you provided is that doctors observed 35 people were diagnosed and 1,000 people were quarantined. Was there some genetic testing you failed to mention?
 

Liljagare

Member
I guess I’m confused because you provided no link. Now obviously if it’s only in Norwegian, it wouldn’t be of use anyway. The only evidence you provided is that doctors observed 35 people were diagnosed and 1,000 people were quarantined. Was there some genetic testing you failed to mention?

Wth mate, maybe you can calm the fuck down and actually read.
 
Wth mate, maybe you can calm the fuck down and actually read.
I did read. You said tests are being conducted but there are no results. So as of right now, the only evidence you’ve presented for this new, more contagious strain, is that 35 people got infected and the Norwegian government quarantined a whole bunch more. Do you have anything else or is that it?
 

Liljagare

Member
I did read. You said tests are being conducted but there are no results. So as of right now, the only evidence you’ve presented for this new, more contagious strain, is that 35 people got infected and the Norwegian government quarantined a whole bunch more. Do you have anything else or is that it?

Uhm, why would you need anything more??
 
Uhm, why would you need anything more??
Because 35 people getting infected doesn’t indicate a new strain. I assumed that was obvious since there have been 40 million cases so far. 35 people getting infected in one place is not special or even interesting. A new strain can only be confirmed by genetic testing.
 

Liljagare

Member
Because 35 people getting infected doesn’t indicate a new strain. I assumed that was obvious since there have been 40 million cases so far. 35 people getting infected in one place is not special or even interesting. A new strain can only be confirmed by genetic testing.

Again, not something I stated.

I guess, if you can't fathom it, is that Norway, after seeing 35 cases reported, in a rapid fashion, quarantined 1000 people, because the Doctors seeing theese new cases in a short fashion, assumed that it might be a new strain.
 
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Again, not something I stated.
You stated the government says it’s potentially a new strain. Since I’m forced to take your word on all this, I guess I’ll just have to assume it’s based on more than 35 people testing positive, even though that’s the only thing you’ve posted here.
 
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Liljagare

Member
You stated the government says it’s potentially a new strain. Since I’m forced to take your word on all this, I guess I’ll just have to assume it’s based on more than 35 people testing positive, even though that’s the only thing you’ve posted here.


Uhm, you do know you can read news online right? As I said, I reported Norway did this, I am not claiming it is true.


 

Liljagare

Member
You stated the government says it’s potentially a new strain. Since I’m forced to take your word on all this, I guess I’ll just have to assume it’s based on more than 35 people testing positive, even though that’s the only thing you’ve posted here.

Maybe you can read slower. I did not state this, the Norwegian doctors did.
 
Uhm, you do know you can read news online right? As I said, I reported Norway did this, I am not claiming it is true.



I read your reddit link. I don’t speak Norwegian and I find google translate to be a waste of time. Sounds like they are saying it’s a variant which may spread more easily and present symptoms more quickly. The first part is bad but the second part is good.

See this is why it was confusing. If you put something out there (a new strain) and provide no links or evidence outside of 35 people tested positive and this is based on doctors observations. The link says preliminary testing has been completed. That is a substantial difference than what you said in the initial post.
 

Joe T.

Member
masks help, washing your hands help, maintaining social distancing helps. there isn't an argument you can genuinely make against that. the argument you can make is the repercussions of those things. (i have 2 kids in school and remote learning fucking sucks, my wife's business she worked so hard for was shut down for months, other small businesses can't recuperate even with the minimal stimulus loans they got, people can only be told to do something for so long until they can't take it anymore, etc...)

my boss is on trump's re-election campaign and he's been the biggest advocate I know of adhering to CDC guidelines and we've done a great job at making sure covid hasn't spread more than it can. covid doesn't care what political party you belong to. if we get hit with a second wave because people are fed up or don't think masks work, all they are doing is fucking over everyone else.

You missed the point. Reporting about the pandemic - not the virus itself - doesn't care about masks, social distancing and hand washing. There is nothing you can do to stop this spread because it's artificially inflated using oversensitive PCR tests for a virus that was never even properly isolated. The language in most of the reporting is suspect as hell and almost no one points it out. The reason it's suspect is because everyone's covering their ass legally.

Look into the PCR testing method, start with NYT if you still value their reporting. Then dig up local information about testing capacity/tests per day and compare that to the daily/weekly changes in positive results. Then take that a step further and do the same in other regions of the world - you'll notice a trend emerge.

The reason places like China, New Zealand and South Korea "succeeded" isn't because they're better than the rest of the world, look up their testing capacity and how they go about reporting their cases. That's the only reason their numbers were/are low. Well, that and the obvious differences in general health. The US, however, is destroying the rest of the world on testing capacity. 2 + 2...

Israel is reported as having one of the highest testing capacities per million and what's funny about that is their numbers are more or less in line with Quebec's when adjusted - similar pop size, but twice as many positives with about 75% more tests/day (slightly higher positivity rate). Correlation is causation, I'd love to see someone prove to me I'm wrong about this.

This isn't rocket science, but I can't blame anyone for being misguided given the overwhelming flood of propaganda coming from all directions. Seriously, look into the numbers for yourself. They apply absolutely everywhere around the world. We're being treated like idiots and after three years of political garbage that apparently half the world bought into I can't blame the sick bastards for thinking they could pull the wool over eyes with this scam, too.

Trump's been holding large rallies all over the country for months. Where are all the crazy explosions in cases, all the hospitalizations and all the dead bodies? The "super spreader event" that apparently got him and everyone around him saw even the most vulnerable targets come out of it fine.

This virus does not warrant the extreme measures that have scared people shitless and harmed businesses. Go yell at your elected leaders or put me on the phone with them and I'll do it for you. The elected leaders here are too scared to debate the matter with the public, lord knows I'd drop everything to do it if the opportunity came up.
 
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Liljagare

Member
I read your reddit link. I don’t speak Norwegian and I find google translate to be a waste of time. Sounds like they are saying it’s a variant which may spread more easily and present symptoms more quickly. The first part is bad but the second part is good.

See this is why it was confusing. If you put something out there (a new strain) and provide no links or evidence outside of 35 people tested positive and this is based on doctors observations. The link says preliminary testing has been completed. That is a substantial difference than what you said in the initial post.

Wth.
 
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CrapSandwich

former Navy SEAL
If you look at Japan's history with the flu, you see maybe 1000-2000 flu deaths per year (aside from 17-18 where it spiked to 3000+). They're a country of 150,000,000. The U.S.A., a country with a bit more than double that at 330,000,000, typically sees maybe 40,000 (aside from 17-18 where it spiked to 80,000) flu deaths. Similar numbers appear with covid. Some 1600+ deaths in Japan vs. 200,000+ in the U.S.A. So what's the big difference? Are the Japanese really good at containing viruses with their hygiene and technology and masks? No. Recurring seroprevalence tests for influenza consistently show 60% and higher of the Japanese population having flu antibodies. If it's not the masks and hygiene, etc., then what is the difference? Japanese have extremely low rates of obesity and vitamin-D deficiency. U.S.A. has obesity and vitamin-D deficiency rates running at 30-50%, respectively. These are the modifiers and the realistic focus of mitigation for covid or influenza. Yet the focus remains on unproven mitigations like masks and futile measures like social distancing and lockdowns. So long as the focus remains on things that don't make a difference, and the real difference makers go unconsidered, this counterproductive nonsense will continue. I don't know how to get more people to say it, but we need to slim down, get some sun or supplement, and stop prolonging the misery while causing unmeasured and unconsidered deaths and destruction in the process.
 
If you look at Japan's history with the flu, you see maybe 1000-2000 flu deaths per year (aside from 17-18 where it spiked to 3000+). They're a country of 150,000,000. The U.S.A., a country with a bit more than double that at 330,000,000, typically sees maybe 40,000 (aside from 17-18 where it spiked to 80,000) flu deaths. Similar numbers appear with covid. Some 1600+ deaths in Japan vs. 200,000+ in the U.S.A. So what's the big difference? Are the Japanese really good at containing viruses with their hygiene and technology and masks? No. Recurring seroprevalence tests for influenza consistently show 60% and higher of the Japanese population having flu antibodies. If it's not the masks and hygiene, etc., then what is the difference? Japanese have extremely low rates of obesity and vitamin-D deficiency. U.S.A. has obesity and vitamin-D deficiency rates running at 30-50%, respectively. These are the modifiers and the realistic focus of mitigation for covid or influenza. Yet the focus remains on unproven mitigations like masks and futile measures like social distancing and lockdowns. So long as the focus remains on things that don't make a difference, and the real difference makers go unconsidered, this counterproductive nonsense will continue. I don't know how to get more people to say it, but we need to slim down, get some sun or supplement, and stop prolonging the misery while causing unmeasured and unconsidered deaths and destruction in the process.

Stopping the spread is impossible. It remains in the air for hours, and on various surfaces for days. And it can hide in the body's immune privileged locations like eyes and the nervous system. It can also be contagious prior to showing symptoms, and also in those that never show overt symptoms(at the same time those not reporting symptoms, can fail to report symptoms even with internal organ damage sometimes severe organ damage).

People have to go to places like supermarkets weekly. The current measures do not stop payment machines from being contaminated or employees from potentially getting sick. Once a sick person enters the supermarket, they'll breathe it out and it will remain on air contaminating others who arrive even hours after, but the virus will also later be deposited on the various food items and remain contagious for days after.

(Even those wearing masks or faceshields will have virus deposition on their clothes and masks or faceshields, and once they remove them it can go from hand to face.)

The same will happen in all other shops, and businesses all doors and surfaces will have virus deposition, and airborne virus particles.

Once infected and they go home, basically everyone in the home will be contaminated, as it will linger in the air and deposit on all surfaces.


Rumor is immunity only last for a few months, and then you can get reinfected again. This is out in the world and is uncontainable, hopefully no worse mutation emerges.

But as you say vitamin D supplementation is a must if you're not getting enough sun light.
 
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Dr.Guru of Peru

played the long game
i'm just going off the study, i'd imagine if at 15 and 29 days there are reduced mortalities that should show that it helps, unless at day 30 everyone that was on remdesivir dropped dead. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764
The survival benefit of Remsidivir at 29 days was not statistically significant, i.e. could be due to chance. Perhaps a larger study will show a benefit, but there doesnt appear to be any evidence that it helps with mortality yet.
 
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Madeline Taylor was a healthy, happy 21-year-old mother. After beating COVID-19, she fully recovered. Only to die months later of a stroke, believed caused by COVID.

On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes.

In four separate studies with asymptomatic people, around 50% had ground-glass opacities in their lungs. The same opacities were found in the lungs of patients with severe coronavirus symptoms.

One study including over 3,500 passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship showed that 331 out of 712 people that tested positive for Covid-19 were asymptomatic. 76 asymptomatic passengers had their lungs examined and more than 50% of them had lungs with ground glass opacities.


“You look at a chest X-ray and say, ‘My God, this guy should be dead!’ And you talk to them, and they say, ‘No I feel fine. I’m not that bad,’ and they’re relatively asymptomatic,” said emergency medicine Dr. Frank Lovecchio.

 

FireFly

Member
You missed the point. Reporting about the pandemic - not the virus itself - doesn't care about masks, social distancing and hand washing. There is nothing you can do to stop this spread because it's artificially inflated using oversensitive PCR tests for a virus that was never even properly isolated. The language in most of the reporting is suspect as hell and almost no one points it out. The reason it's suspect is because everyone's covering their ass legally.
No one has been able to give me an explanation of why it is a problem that the PCR test is able to detect past cases, if we are interested in the infection rate, not the number of infectious individuals.

See the below clarifications about the NYT article:

 
No one has been able to give me an explanation of why it is a problem that the PCR test is able to detect past cases, if we are interested in the infection rate, not the number of infectious individuals.

See the below clarifications about the NYT article:

The issue is we then quarantine those people for 2 weeks when perhaps the vast majority are no longer infectious. It also makes contact tracing almost impossible.
 

Guileless

Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
Ireland going into six week lockdown to "save Christmas."

UK opposition leader Keir Starmer demanding national lockdown.

The Guardian dusting off articles from the spring about imminent ICU bed crisis.
 

bigsnack

Member

If these were widespread, common events then we would know. These are very rare given the infection rate, and someone could very easily show millions of examples where people have gotten the virus, recovered, and then moved on with their lives.

I had C19 in late January. This was before the hysteria, so there is literally nothing I could have done at the time to avoid getting the virus because it was a far away nothing burger here in the states. I was sick for about 7 days, and then sporadically tired for about 8-10 weeks, but now I feel fine. I could live in fear now that I have permanent damage that could eventually kill me, but what good would that do? I have zero control over that now, there was no way to avoid infection for me, so I'm not going to live in fear for the rest of my life over something I have no way to avoid either way.

FWIW, the only person that I know that likely died from C19 was someone who was sick, recovered, and then had a stroke 3-4 months afterwards. He was also obese and an alcoholic.
 

bigsnack

Member




If these were widespread, common events then we would know. These are very rare given the infection rate, and someone could very easily show millions of examples where people have gotten the virus, recovered, and then moved on with their lives.

I had C19 in late January. This was before the hysteria, so there is literally nothing I could have done at the time to avoid getting the virus because it was a far away nothing burger here in the states. I was sick for about 7 days, and then sporadically tired for about 8-10 weeks, but now I feel fine. I could live in fear now that I have permanent damage that could eventually kill me, but what good would that do? I have zero control over that now, there was no way to avoid infection for me, so I'm not going to live in fear for the rest of my life over something I have no way to avoid either way.

FWIW, the only person that I know that likely died from C19 was someone who was sick, recovered, and then had a stroke 3-4 months afterwards. He was also obese and an alcoholic.
 

diffusionx

Gold Member







Young people die from the flu every. single. year. Nobody cares though, because the media rarely reports on it. In fact, the regular old influenza appears to be deadlier than COVID for anyone under the age of 50 or so.

As for long term damage, whatever. It may be there, it may not be there, but we can't lock ourselves indoors into perpeuity because of potential lung damage in 10 years. They're hyping it up to scare people, but we are all going to get it anyway, so who cares? COVID is a real raw deal for people of this generation, but so much of the misery has been inflicted by the government and crazy busybodies.

Rumor is immunity only last for a few months, and then you can get reinfected again. This is out in the world and is uncontainable, hopefully no worse mutation emerges.

But as you say vitamin D supplementation is a must if you're not getting enough sun light.

If immunity only lasts for a few months and we can get reinfected, then vaccines are useless too. So what do we do, just stay home for the rest of our lives? Wear masks and never talk to another human being again? Cancel Thanksgiving permanently? This is insane.
 
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Birdo

Banned
The Guardian dusting off articles from the spring about imminent ICU bed crisis.

The funny thing about this, is that we didn't even run out of ICU beds during the absolute peak of the infection rate.

The Irish lockdown doesn't include pubs or school......... The main spreaders of the virus :messenger_grinning_squinting:
 

Joe T.

Member
No one has been able to give me an explanation of why it is a problem that the PCR test is able to detect past cases, if we are interested in the infection rate, not the number of infectious individuals.

How could you miss that explanation until now? It's at the core of the fearmongering during this entire pandemic story. Those positive test results going as high as 45 cycles have been used by both the media and government to scare the public into thinking the virus is currently spreading. It's driving policy change which is fucking insanity. This has been one giant fraud.

Restaurants, bars, movie theaters, etc were closed again for a full month over those rising positive test results which came accompanied with a massive increase in tests/day. Look at the disconnect here in Quebec (deaths in red, positive cases in blue):

Ekvu2PiXYAEWI18


Surely you understand the problem.
 
If these were widespread, common events then we would know. These are very rare given the infection rate, and someone could very easily show millions of examples where people have gotten the virus, recovered, and then moved on with their lives.

I had C19 in late January. This was before the hysteria, so there is literally nothing I could have done at the time to avoid getting the virus because it was a far away nothing burger here in the states. I was sick for about 7 days, and then sporadically tired for about 8-10 weeks, but now I feel fine. I could live in fear now that I have permanent damage that could eventually kill me, but what good would that do? I have zero control over that now, there was no way to avoid infection for me, so I'm not going to live in fear for the rest of my life over something I have no way to avoid either way.

FWIW, the only person that I know that likely died from C19 was someone who was sick, recovered, and then had a stroke 3-4 months afterwards. He was also obese and an alcoholic.
Researchers conducted serial assessments of patients 30 days after they were released from the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in Zhuhai, China. They found that, of the 40 non-severe and 17 severe cases, 31 patients (54.4%) still had abnormal findings on chest computed tomography (CT).

Aileen Marty, MD, professor of infectious diseases at Florida International University, says the hazy areas are areas of inflammation. It’s a sign that the lung is sick. She has seen it for herself. In her hospitals, 67% of people who don’t feel ill but test positive for COVID-19 have some changes in their lungs that can be seen on CT scans.

Nobody knows exactly what those changes mean yet or whether they will persist and form scar tissue or simply heal and go away after the infection is gone.

More than half of asymptomatic have lung issues visible on CT scan, some lung function may be temporarily or permanently lost.
Young people die from the flu every. single. year. Nobody cares though, because the media rarely reports on it. In fact, the regular old influenza appears to be deadlier than COVID for anyone under the age of 50 or so.

As for long term damage, whatever. It may be there, it may not be there, but we can't lock ourselves indoors into perpeuity because of potential lung damage in 10 years. They're hyping it up to scare people, but we are all going to get it anyway, so who cares? COVID is a real raw deal for people of this generation, but so much of the misery has been inflicted by the government and crazy busybodies.
It's not just lung damage, the lung damage is caused by microclots I hear, other organs are also affected.
If immunity only lasts for a few months and we can get reinfected, then vaccines are useless too. So what do we do, just stay home for the rest of our lives? Wear masks and never talk to another human being again? Cancel Thanksgiving permanently? This is insane.
We have to keep the economy going, even closed as I say you can't stop the spread(it lingers in the air and surfaces, and people have to go to the supermarkets at least, so they'll get contaminated sooner or later.). But I don't think these issues will go away. Maybe it'll evolve into a less severe strain, but if not it'll be problematic.
 

bigsnack

Member


More than half of asymptomatic have lung issues visible on CT scan, some lung function may be temporarily or permanently lost.

It's not just lung damage, the lung damage is caused by microclots I hear, other organs are also affected.

We have to keep the economy going, even closed as I say you can't stop the spread(it lingers in the air and surfaces, and people have to go to the supermarkets at least, so they'll get contaminated sooner or later.). But I don't think these issues will go away. Maybe it'll evolve into a less severe strain, but if not it'll be problematic.

I understand that it's something to watch out for, but really we shouldn't be concerned until we re-examine these same people in 12 months and see what's going on. Are they better than they were on first exam, the same, or worse? Since it's now obvious that nearly everyone under the age of 70 is going to survive getting this disease, the fear has been transferred from "People are going to DIE." to "People are going to have permanent damage that they can't recover from." It's a maybe, not a definite yes, and not enough time has passed to know either way.
 
Fuckers got me. (Edit: And I don't mean covid, I don't care about that, I mean the government.)

I don't see how I can get out of this. Commitments demand that I go. Voluntary, my ass.

If I was single I'd skip it, but the NWO got me over a barrel. Ka-hunts.

Global testing ground over here.

"Testing should be voluntary, but those who will not participate will be required to stay in isolation 10 days. These people will not be allowed to go out and police may ask to see their negative test result if approached on the street, he continued. If they do not have it, they can be fined €1,659."

 
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MilkyJoe

Member
So now we have the WHO ("science") saying don't do lockdowns, we know they don't work, we know they kill the economy, etc. - yet governments are still doing them.

The question is why? It's not because of coronavirus.

It's probably one of 2 reasons

A) If they abandon lockdown strategy they have then got to explain the 25K people that died because of the lockdown and face the up to 100k now terminal cancer cases that would otherwise have lived.

B)...


But I suspect it's a combination of both.
 
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FireFly

Member
The issue is we then quarantine those people for 2 weeks when perhaps the vast majority are no longer infectious. It also makes contact tracing almost impossible.
Sure. My question is about using PCR tests to track the infection rate, and not to determine who should quarantine. Obviously, we need to know whether a person is currently infectious to determine whether they should quarantine or not, so the PCR test isn't ideal for that application. But it would seem bizarre to me to suggest that simply knowing the total number of infections isn't helpful to determine whether the virus is spreading or not!

How could you miss that explanation until now? It's at the core of the fearmongering during this entire pandemic story. Those positive test results going as high as 45 cycles have been used by both the media and government to scare the public into thinking the virus is currently spreading.
I'm aware of the debate about whether increasing case counts are due to increased testing. My question is why is it not possible to track the infection rate using a test that can recognise historical infections?
Simply saying X test is too sensitive or too powerful, or whatever terms you want to use, isn't descriptive. Too sensitive for what?
 
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Joe T.

Member
I'm aware of the debate about whether increasing case counts are due to increased testing. My question is why is it not possible to track the infection rate using a test that can recognise historical infections?
Simply saying X test is too sensitive or too powerful, or whatever terms you want to use, isn't descriptive. Too sensitive for what?

You're getting caught up in semantics even though the argument is crystal clear.

As you made clear in the previous reply, you already know the answer. These positive test results do not necessarily mean you're infectious, but the mainstream media and governments around the world are treating them as such. This is lying by omission. The world would not have reacted the same way to this scamdemic had the most relevant/important facts about the testing method been made clear to everyone.

The vast majority of people with positive test results never develop symptoms and there's even question as to how infectious a person can be if he/she's asymptomatic, yet governments treat everyone as infectious, force them to quarantine/self-isolate and use those positive results to impose restrictions on large segments of the population. Why? "They're playing it safe" might have been an acceptable answer in March, not in October where the collateral damage caused by lockdowns, social distancing and masks far outweighs the damage caused by the virus itself.

There is absolutely no reason to change policy based simply on positive test results, especially when they're amplified to such a ridiculous degree. This gives me the impression they're seeking positive results rather than aiming to learn, improve and refine the way we handle this virus in the most effective manner possible. The scientific method has been completed flushed down the toilet.
 
Young people die from the flu every. single. year. Nobody cares though, because the media rarely reports on it. In fact, the regular old influenza appears to be deadlier than COVID for anyone under the age of 50 or so.

As for long term damage, whatever. It may be there, it may not be there, but we can't lock ourselves indoors into perpeuity because of potential lung damage in 10 years. They're hyping it up to scare people, but we are all going to get it anyway, so who cares? COVID is a real raw deal for people of this generation, but so much of the misery has been inflicted by the government and crazy busybodies.



If immunity only lasts for a few months and we can get reinfected, then vaccines are useless too. So what do we do, just stay home for the rest of our lives? Wear masks and never talk to another human being again? Cancel Thanksgiving permanently? This is insane.

Ok so, you believe they are saying this stuff to "scare people". But what is the reasoning? Why would countries all around the globe work simultaneously to create this great scare tactic? Countries that have historically been at odds are now all in on a grand scheme to scare the world? The world runs on money, there is much more money being lost than gained due to covid so it can't be a monetary thing. What are your guesses as to why they want everyone scared?
 
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FireFly

Member
You're getting caught up in semantics even though the argument is crystal clear.

As you made clear in the previous reply, you already know the answer. These positive test results do not necessarily mean you're infectious, but the mainstream media and governments around the world are treating them as such. This is lying by omission. The world would not have reacted the same way to this scamdemic had the most relevant/important facts about the testing method been made clear to everyone.
I am not focusing on semantics, but rather on the specific question as to whether PCR testing can be used to track the infection rate of the virus within a population. This is not the same question as to whether it can track the proportion of people who are currently infectious. (Nor is the same question as whether the government or media response is appropriate).

Think about it logically. Individuals transition from being infectious to non-infectious, so the proportion of (currently) infectious individuals is always a fraction of the total number of historical cases. So if all we know is the number of historical cases, we can't tell who is currently infectious. But if the number of cases is increasing, it certainly seems like the virus is spreading in the population!

The vast majority of people with positive test results never develop symptoms and there's even question as to how infectious a person can be if he/she's asymptomatic, yet governments treat everyone as infectious, force them to quarantine/self-isolate and use those positive results to impose restrictions on large segments of the population. Why? "They're playing it safe" might have been an acceptable answer in March, not in October where the collateral damage caused by lockdowns, social distancing and masks far outweighs the damage caused by the virus itself.
This is an entirely separate claim that does not depend on the accuracy of the PCR test. The PCR test results can be accurately tracking the virus spreading through the population, and the majority of infections can be asymptomatic. (But if the majority of people are not infectious then the virus probably wouldn't be spreading, since it would be hard for R to be above 1, especially when supressed).

I am sticking to addressing the test claim, because it's the easiest to verify and rests on logical arguments rather than complex questions about what governments should or shouldn't have done.
 

Joe T.

Member
I am not focusing on semantics, but rather on the specific question as to whether PCR testing can be used to track the infection rate of the virus within a population. This is not the same question as to whether it can track the proportion of people who are currently infectious. (Nor is the same question as whether the government or media response is appropriate).

Think about it logically. Individuals transition from being infectious to non-infectious, so the proportion of (currently) infectious individuals is always a fraction of the total number of historical cases. So if all we know is the number of historical cases, we can't tell who is currently infectious. But if the number of cases is increasing, it certainly seems like the virus is spreading in the population!


This is an entirely separate claim that does not depend on the accuracy of the PCR test. The PCR test results can be accurately tracking the virus spreading through the population, and the majority of infections can be asymptomatic. (But if the majority of people are not infectious then the virus probably wouldn't be spreading, since it would be hard for R to be above 1, especially when supressed).

I am sticking to addressing the test claim, because it's the easiest to verify and rests on logical arguments rather than complex questions about what governments should or shouldn't have done.

Whether they can or can't is irrelevant given that the vast majority aren't being used to do that, they're simply delivering binary positive/negative results. Let's be clear here, a positive PCR test with a cycle threshold of 18 or 19 and a positive PCR test with a cycle threshold of 45 are both reported the exact same way. If you were interested in finding viral load and whether or not someone is infectious you wouldn't be conducting tests with such high ct values. You'll have no difficulty finding a number of doctors, lab technicians, etc stating as much.
 

FireFly

Member
Whether they can or can't is irrelevant given that the vast majority aren't being used to do that, they're simply delivering binary positive/negative results. Let's be clear here, a positive PCR test with a cycle threshold of 18 or 19 and a positive PCR test with a cycle threshold of 45 are both reported the exact same way. If you were interested in finding viral load and whether or not someone is infectious you wouldn't be conducting tests with such high ct values. You'll have no difficulty finding a number of doctors, lab technicians, etc stating as much.
No, but the results of PCR tests are being used in aggregate to estimate the spread of the virus through the population. I interpreted your original claim to be that this was not a reasonable use of these tests – because it somehow inflates the case numbers – but perhaps I was incorrect about that?
 

Dr.Guru of Peru

played the long game
Whether they can or can't is irrelevant given that the vast majority aren't being used to do that, they're simply delivering binary positive/negative results. Let's be clear here, a positive PCR test with a cycle threshold of 18 or 19 and a positive PCR test with a cycle threshold of 45 are both reported the exact same way. If you were interested in finding viral load and whether or not someone is infectious you wouldn't be conducting tests with such high ct values. You'll have no difficulty finding a number of doctors, lab technicians, etc stating as much.
The PCR test is not used to determine whether someone is infectious. The test is simply not capable of distinguishing intact virus versus from fragmented virus. The number of cycle thresholds is irrelevant - you coud swab positive on the 40th cycle from a throat swab on day 9 of your illness, and then swab positive on the 2nd cycle day 10 from a nasopharyngeal swab. It doesn't mean you're more infectious on day 10.

The PCR test is used to determine the presence of an infection. That's it. As Firefly explained, the reproductive number is then calculated using this statistic to determine whether the virus is actually spreading in the community. If the majority of people were not infectious, we would not be seeing spread.
 

Joe T.

Member
No, but the results of PCR tests are being used in aggregate to estimate the spread of the virus through the population. I interpreted your original claim to be that this was not a reasonable use of these tests – because it somehow inflates the case numbers – but perhaps I was incorrect about that?

They're delivering a false representation of the true impact the virus is having on the region. Those overinflated numbers get used by sensationalist media to strike fear in the masses and by incompetent/sinister governments to impose unnecessary restrictions that wind up hurting the people they're supposed to be protecting. This is all one counterproductive exercise and Sweden is a daily reminder of that fact.

The number of cycle thresholds is irrelevant - you coud swab positive on the 40th cycle from a throat swab on day 9 of your illness, and then swab positive on the 2nd cycle day 10 from a nasopharyngeal swab. It doesn't mean you're more infectious on day 10.

That is flat out false. The cycle threshold is absolutely relevant to the topic at hand, we would not be finding as many positives with a much more reasonable threshold. Why run them so high? An infected patient, provided you believe the virus was properly isolated, that doesn't have live virus is nice to record on the books for statistical analysis but conflating it with the vague "positive cases" label does more harm than good in this environment of piss poor media coverage and government overreach.

The limitations of PCR testing need to be understood by the masses and they are not. Clouding this issue is profitable for mainstream media outlets because this story is a major cash cow for them as well as the pharmaceutical industry. Better informing the public would very quickly lower the level of fear and it would force governments to rethink the measures they're using.
 

FireFly

Member
They're delivering a false representation of the true impact the virus is having on the region. Those overinflated numbers get used by sensationalist media to strike fear in the masses and by incompetent/sinister governments to impose unnecessary restrictions that wind up hurting the people they're supposed to be protecting. This is all one counterproductive exercise and Sweden is a daily reminder of that fact.
Ok, but we're circling around the issue again. The question I am asking is not how they are represented by the media, but whether they have value in allowing us to estimate the spread of the virus. If I want to know how the virus is spreading for the purpose of discussing in a forum thread on NeoGAF, and I am not from CNN or any other news organisation, are they useful? Or to put it differently, if I am scientist and I want to estimate the spread of the virus from the aggregate PCR test results, can I do this?
 
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Dr.Guru of Peru

played the long game
They're delivering a false representation of the true impact the virus is having on the region. Those overinflated numbers get used by sensationalist media to strike fear in the masses and by incompetent/sinister governments to impose unnecessary restrictions that wind up hurting the people they're supposed to be protecting. This is all one counterproductive exercise and Sweden is a daily reminder of that fact.



That is flat out false. The cycle threshold is absolutely relevant to the topic at hand, we would not be finding as many positives with a much more reasonable threshold. Why run them so high? An infected patient, provided you believe the virus was properly isolated, that doesn't have live virus is nice to record on the books for statistical analysis but conflating it with the vague "positive cases" label does more harm than good in this environment of piss poor media coverage and government overreach.

The limitations of PCR testing need to be understood by the masses and they are not. Clouding this issue is profitable for mainstream media outlets because this story is a major cash cow for them as well as the pharmaceutical industry. Better informing the public would very quickly lower the level of fear and it would force governments to rethink the measures they're using.

What exactly did I say that is flat out false? Public health organizations do not recommend using COVID PCR test results to determine how contagious someone is. This is demonstrable. It's why any COVID positive patient is instructed to isolate for 10 days from symptom onset, not from date of diagnosis. Its why we don't routinely do repeat swabs to rule out contagiousness.

And to answer your question: the reason is because the test has low sensitivity. The ability of the test to pick up virus depends on a variety of factors, including site of sampling, sampling technique, and timing of sampling. None of this is related to the question of whether the person actually has the disease and variance here increases the number of false negatives. Increasing the cycles of the test increases its sensitivity. I've already posted numerous data in this thread that shows that the sensitivity of the test pales in comparison to its specificity.

Again, the PCR test does not distinguish between "live" or "dead" virus. This has nothing to o with cycle counts. Changing the cycle threshold will not affect this.
 
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Chittagong

Gold Member
Some of my friends figured out a couple months ago why the virus is so infectious, and can even get inside the brain and central nervous system.

One of them even got the ol’ rona on the flight back after submitting this paper, which was published today (he survived, but has long covid):


for us mere mortals:


To date, it is known that a portion of the peak binds to the cell surface ace-2 receptor. Now, two new studies in the prestigious journal Science show that the spike has another key inside the cell. It seems to make the virus particularly fierce.

The newly discovered key binds to another cell surface receptor, neuropilin.

...

“When we realized what it was, we were shocked. It was the same part that is in the most dangerous human viruses of all: Ebola, HIV, pathogenic lines of bird flu, and viruses that cause bleeding fever, ”Balistreri says.

That part of the genome forms the manufacturing instructions for the extra barb of the virus peak.

...

“The coronavirus is quite similar. It has thorns and barbs on their side – just like any other extremely dangerous virus. ”

There is no concentration in common seasonal coronary viruses that cause mild flu.

so, although the virus is not quite the apocalypse the press would have us think, it is also not ’just a flu’ mechanically. Rather it shares a much more dangerous cellular component with more sinister viruses.
 
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bigsnack

Member
Ok, but we're circling around the issue again. The question I am asking is not how they are represented by the media, but whether they have value in allowing us to estimate the spread of the virus. If I want to know how the virus is spreading for the purpose of discussing in a forum thread on NeoGAF, and I am not from CNN or any other news organisation, are they useful? Or to put it differently, if I am scientist and I want to estimate the spread of the virus from the aggregate PCR test results, can I do this?

Why focus on case count at all, why not focus on hospitalization rate. Wouldn't that be a more objective metric to track? I guess even that has problems because there were financial incentives to report admissions as COVID cases. But, wouldn't that help us decide how dangerous the virus truly is? If it's lethality is increasing / decreasing, isn't that the most important factor?
 
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