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Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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sinnergy

Member
It keeps the numbers down... temporarily, until you open again. That’s the problem. It doesn’t eradicate it. So the choice is to let the virus do what it does and manage best you can as it burns through a population or have this terrible and crushing lockdown-open-lockdown cycle into perpetuity.
But you can’t let it run because it collapses your health care system .. it’s not rocket science. You get it ?

meaning people with other illnesses also die, or accidents .. Cant be helped .
Pandemics cause this ... But why am I arguing, you have seen it in NY, Italy , Spain , France ..

after the lock down And social measures it seems manageable
 
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diffusionx

Gold Member
But you can’t let it run because it collapses your health care system .. it’s not rocket science. You get it ?

meaning people with other illnesses also die, or accidents ..


What health systems have collapsed? Covid had what looks like a full run in NYC and the health system managed fine. The health system in places like Florida have certainly strained but they did not collapse. And for the 50th time, the regular old flu overloads health systems every few years, this is NOT NEW.

dude I had stress most people won’t have in their entire life , never lost a hair .

Well that proves everything
 
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Except lock down kept the numbers down ... you see what happens if you don’t.

dude I had stress most people won’t have in their entire life , never lost a hair .
Well if it didn't happen to you, surely that means it doesn't happen. Feel free to continuing using that logic. People love that.
 
And you blame nothing on Covid 🤣 you are in one big denial that there is a pandemic.
you are probably one that goes protesting , bars and spreading it everywhere...

because some basic guidelines takes my freedom away.
Now now. You're confusing me with the voices inside your head again. I'm none of those things. I know you've got an active imagination, but try and stay grounded in reality with the rest of us.
 

Jooxed

Gold Member
I just did a horrendous liquid shit - it stank out the whole house. Do you think it's covid?


xnZvNyy.jpg



Well we just did your building wide testing for the third time. 80 Patients and 100 employee's tested hoping we have 0 cases, but I know that's a pipe dream in a health care building. This is the 4th time I have had something jammed up my nose.
 

bigsnack

Member
I understand both sides of this discussion, I truly do. Over the course of this pandemic I've floated over to both sides, although I've finally leaned very hard to one side as of late.

I think as a society, it would be a common courtesy to others if when you are ill / sick and you must leave the house, to wear a mask and keep away from folks. Other countries do it, and I think that's the least folks could do to show a little respect to everyone around you. Not just in a pandemic, but in general.

This pandemic has been fueled in the worst ways by the internet and social media. If this happened 25 years ago, it would have come and gone as a fart in the wind. My own interpretation of the state by state (and country by country) data is telling me that there is no stopping the spread of this virus. There have only been a few instances at the absolute beginning where it looked as though the medical system was being stretched too thin, but that's not really happening now and I don't think there will be another wave that's going to be worse than the one we just had. I still think folks should be focusing on their own general health (vitamin D, diet, etc.), as opposed to judging others for wearing a mask / not wearing a mask, or having a pool party or whatever.

California's data (where I live) is showing a sharp decline in hospital admissions and new cases. Based on my observation, that has nothing to do with social distancing / mask wearing. My family went to Laguna Beach two weekends ago, and it was an absolute mask-free party scene in every direction. I know our whole neighborhood has basically thrown social distancing and mask wearing out the window completely, aside from when forced inside of a restaurant or whatever. The only logical conclusion I can come to is that the virus is starting to peter out on it's own.

I believe that some people actually want the pandemic to get worse or be worse than it is, just so they can say "I told you so.".
 

pel1300

Member
Still no one can make sense of Thailand's low death toll despite highly criticized and slow response to the virus

Thailand may have a better health care system than most of SE Asia - but they are still a developing country. They do not have the testing capacity that the 1st world does. Hence only 3k cases and 58 people dead.
 
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Tell_men

Member
I understand both sides of this discussion, I truly do. Over the course of this pandemic I've floated over to both sides, although I've finally leaned very hard to one side as of late.

I think as a society, it would be a common courtesy to others if when you are ill / sick and you must leave the house, to wear a mask and keep away from folks. Other countries do it, and I think that's the least folks could do to show a little respect to everyone around you. Not just in a pandemic, but in general.

This pandemic has been fueled in the worst ways by the internet and social media. If this happened 25 years ago, it would have come and gone as a fart in the wind. My own interpretation of the state by state (and country by country) data is telling me that there is no stopping the spread of this virus. There have only been a few instances at the absolute beginning where it looked as though the medical system was being stretched too thin, but that's not really happening now and I don't think there will be another wave that's going to be worse than the one we just had. I still think folks should be focusing on their own general health (vitamin D, diet, etc.), as opposed to judging others for wearing a mask / not wearing a mask, or having a pool party or whatever.

California's data (where I live) is showing a sharp decline in hospital admissions and new cases. Based on my observation, that has nothing to do with social distancing / mask wearing. My family went to Laguna Beach two weekends ago, and it was an absolute mask-free party scene in every direction. I know our whole neighborhood has basically thrown social distancing and mask wearing out the window completely, aside from when forced inside of a restaurant or whatever. The only logical conclusion I can come to is that the virus is starting to peter out on it's own.

I believe that some people actually want the pandemic to get worse or be worse than it is, just so they can say "I told you so.".

California is reporting a statewide glitch that has caused severe undercounting of results and apparently Alyssa Milano had covid after testing twice negative for it.

Winter is coming.


 

bigsnack

Member
Still no one can make sense of Thailand's low death toll despite highly criticized and slow response to the virus

Thailand may have a better health care system than most of SE Asia - but they are still a developing country. They do not have the testing capacity that the 1st world does. Hence only 3k cases and 58 people dead.

Thailand's average daily sugar consumption is 1/4 of the US. I would say that people are likely in far better internal physical shape to avoid being killed by this virus, since it appears to thrive and do the most damage when there is inflammation / vascular issues within the body.
 

bigsnack

Member
California is reporting a statewide glitch that has caused severe undercounting of results and apparently Alyssa Milano had covid after testing twice negative for it.

Winter is coming.



What is your expectation for Winter?

Also:

"Ghaly said that the reporting system errors haven't affected numbers of hospitalizations and available beds in ICUs because those numbers are tallied using CALredie, a different system which connects labs to state and local health systems, according to the..."

I plucked this from one of the articles you referenced. Hospitalizations are falling aggressively as well, and those numbers were not affected by the error.
 
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Joe T.

Member
But you can’t let it run because it collapses your health care system .. it’s not rocket science. You get it ?

We already let this virus run its course for at least two to three months in regions where lockdowns were quickly imposed, longer than that in others.

In hindsight I think it's fair to ask whether the overreaction to this virus prematurely ended more lives than it saved. There are some powerful people that would see that as a benefit to society, an example of that in short video form here.
 

cryptoadam

Banned
We already let this virus run its course for at least two to three months in regions where lockdowns were quickly imposed, longer than that in others.

In hindsight I think it's fair to ask whether the overreaction to this virus prematurely ended more lives than it saved. There are some powerful people that would see that as a benefit to society, an example of that in short video form here.

No doubt the lock down killed many more than it was supposed to save.

Where we live 80% of our deaths are in LTC's. LTCs were abandoned due to lock downs, hospitals were scared of Corona so they sent sick patients into LTCs. Its what happened in places like NY and NJ etc...

The panic from the lock downs caused perverse decisions where instead of protecting the most vulnerable they were thrown to the proverbial wolf (the virus).

Looking a place like NY and saying the lock down did something is insanity when 30K people died. The lock down had the opposite effect. Cuomo even said so, 2/3rds of cases were from people who sheltered at home. 20% of the population was infected. Didn't stop the virus didn't stop deaths.

But of course if there wasn't a strict lockdown 100's of thousands would of died in NYC. Since there is no way to prove that we just gotta buy those crappy models put forth by Ferguson whose models have been wrong on everything. I will take the facts that 1000's died in old age homes and millions got infected, the vast majority were people who were sheltering at home.
 

FireFly

Member
What health systems have collapsed? Covid had what looks like a full run in NYC and the health system managed fine. The health system in places like Florida have certainly strained but they did not collapse. And for the 50th time, the regular old flu overloads health systems every few years, this is NOT NEW.
So 60%+ of the population of the New York were infected in a month and a half and now have immunity? Or cases peaked 3 weeks after the lockdown, precisely because the virus could no longer spread?

And if New York now has herd immunity, why have cases been almost flat for the past 2 months at several hundred a day? How can a virus continue to spread if the susceptible population has been exhausted?
 
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So 60%+ of the population of the New York were infected in a month and a half and now have immunity? Or cases peaked 3 weeks after the lockdown, precisely because the virus could no longer spread?

And if New York now has herd immunity, why have cases been almost flat for the past 2 months at several hundred a day? How can a virus continue to spread if the susceptible population has been exhausted?
So a couple of things. First a distinction needs to be made between New York City and New York state. Second herd immunity isn't an all or nothing proposition. It begins to effect the rate of transmission as the percentage of susceptible people decreases. Third New York locked down hard. Lock downs do slow the spread, clearly. I mean, if you can't contact anyone, you can't spread the virus. Its hard to determine where New York City was in terms of immunity prior to going into lockdown mode.

I say all this because its not like herd immunity for a virus like this is going to mean zero cases. Even with a vaccine, this is going to exist at a certain level. The question is whether it can be managed by the healthcare system without crippling it. The goal should be, in my opinion, to allow (not encourage) low risk people to contract the virus and recover without spreading to vulnerable people. And when they recover, as almost all will, they will no longer be at risk to others. This will naturally slow the spread.
 
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FireFly

Member
So a couple of things. First a distinction needs to be made between New York City and New York state. Second herd immunity isn't an all or nothing proposition. It begins to effect the rate of transmission as the percentage of susceptible people decreases. Third New York locked down hard. Lock downs do slow the spread, clearly. I mean, if you can't contact anyone, you can't spread the virus. Its hard to determine where New York City was in terms of immunity prior to going into lockdown mode.

I say all this because its not like herd immunity for a virus like this is going to mean zero cases. Even with a vaccine, this is going to exist at a certain level. The question is whether it can be managed by the healthcare system without crippling it. The goal should be, in my opinion, to allow (not encourage) low risk people to contract the virus and recover without spreading to vulnerable people. And when they recover, as almost all will, they will no longer be at risk to others. This will naturally slow the spread.
I feel like you're not really disagreeing with me. With regard to New York City, from what I can see new cases peaked at the same time there as they did in the state as a whole:


And though the numbers fluctuate, there are still hundreds of new cases daily.

By herd immunity, I mean the point at which enough of the population is immune that the virus will die off, irrespective of our behaviour. Which is probably at 60%-70% immunity. I totally agree that before that happens the rate at which new cases are increasing (rate of acceleration) will decrease. But they still will be accelerating! The claim I am addressing is not that having say 25% of NYC infected did nothing to slow the transmission rate. Obviously it did. The claim is that the virus has already peaked or, burnt itself out or whatever in NYC, and the people there can just go back to living their lives. (When in reality believing that requires a belief in an invisible immunity not seen on the antibody tests. Which may exist but is invisible precisely because we lack conclusive evidence for it!)

So if R0 was 2.39 say and R is now 1.79 taking into account new immunity, then it will still spread rapidly if we allow it. And to me saying "well everything was fine when we had the lockdown so we don't need to worry" is like calling the fire service when your house is on fire and then afterwards thinking "well, my house didn't burn down so why did I call those people?".
 
I feel like you're not really disagreeing with me. With regard to New York City, from what I can see new cases peaked at the same time there as they did in the state as a whole:


And though the numbers fluctuate, there are still hundreds of new cases daily.

By herd immunity, I mean the point at which enough of the population is immune that the virus will die off, irrespective of our behaviour. Which is probably at 60%-70% immunity. I totally agree that before that happens the rate at which new cases are increasing (rate of acceleration) will decrease. But they still will be accelerating! The claim I am addressing is not that having say 25% of NYC infected did nothing to slow the transmission rate. Obviously it did. The claim is that the virus has already peaked or, burnt itself out or whatever in NYC, and the people there can just go back to living their lives. (When in reality believing that requires a belief in an invisible immunity not seen on the antibody tests. Which may exist but is invisible precisely because we lack conclusive evidence for it!)

So if R0 was 2.39 say and R is now 1.79 taking into account new immunity, then it will still spread rapidly if we allow it. And to me saying "well everything was fine when we had the lockdown so we don't need to worry" is like calling the fire service when your house is on fire and then afterwards thinking "well, my house didn't burn down so why did I call those people?".
Oh I don't think we're disagreeing at all. You just asked why case numbers are so flat in New York, and I feel like that is why. And we can just make up numbers for the R0, but I don't believe that is helpful since we'd literally be talking about fake numbers at that point. The spread has been slowed. Deaths are about 10 per day in the whole state. They gotta start trying to live more normally (no completely normally).
 
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Saruhashi

Banned

It's stuff like this that just completely makes me question if there really is some kind of dark "something" going on in the background with all this.

How the hell could there ever be a situation where "demolish the entire" building could be a realistic solution here.

We ain't talking about radiation here. Or asbestos or mold or anything like that.

Surely worst case is you shut the building for a week or two then give it a clean and then you are good to go?

Same with a bus or car. How long can the virus survive in an effective state? Surely you just leave the bus sitting for 3 to 4 weeks at worst then give it a good wipe down and it's back to normal. No. We must destroy it.

Very, very, strange.

Either the virus is way more serious than we could ever imagine or this kind of bullshit is being added in so that government can use the virus as an excuse.

How could you even contemplate the possibility that a private home or car might need to be "destroyed" because of Covid?

I always feel like little snippets such as this do not help the public. Either is spreads fear or it erodes trust. Neither are desirable right now.
Unless they ARE actually desirable for some yet to be revealed reason.
 

Aarbron

Member
I understand both sides of this discussion, I truly do. Over the course of this pandemic I've floated over to both sides, although I've finally leaned very hard to one side as of late.

I largely felt the same through this whole pandemic. I remember having discussions about the virus at our university back in early January. As educators, we were shit scared about it given its Chinese origins. In some classrooms upwards of 90% of students were from mainland China. Our teaching year starts in March.

Now - perhaps it is lockdown fatigue, but apart from reading this thread in the morning and watching the local news for any rules updates I try to disengage from it all.
 

cryptoadam

Banned
You can't say when NY "peaked" when they were doing 10K test a day, or 50K, compared to now. Any numbers from Feb-May should be looked at as a joke. I would even wager a vast majority of people who wanted to get tested didn't get tested back then.

New York locked down hard and 30K died. Thats an epic failure. And all those dead has lead to no indoor dining till next summer and check points. Outside of BLM riots you can't do anything in New York.
 

Chaplain

Member
Infectious disease expert says COVID-19 will never be eradicated (8/6/20)

Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease at the University of Minnesota, spoke to an audience of more than 150 policymakers, local and state officials, and reporters in a Zoom briefing Wednesday and expressed a mostly negative outlook on the future of fighting the virus, the long-term efficacy of vaccines and the near-impossibility of contact tracing in the current environment... “Think of this coronavirus as one hell of a forest fire looking for as much human wood as it can find to burn, and it’s going to continue to do that. This is a leaky bucket virus that’s just going to keep on coming back and coming back and coming back.” Osterholm said he’s reluctant to go along with the concept of an “October Surprise” — that a vaccine will be ready for use before year’s end. But even If some vaccine comes to the forefront: “If we get 18 to 24 months out of it I think we will have a major success.”

But Osterholm says the problem is not only the efficacy but the safety of the vaccine — something he says “might not come to question until 12 to 18 months after it’s been administered; we can’t say what it will be.” “I don’t believe for the life of me that these vaccines are going to have long-term durable immunity,” he added. “If I had to give it a guess, I would say potentially in a month to several years. That will bring us to the issue to herd immunity, and we’re going to have to live with that. “I don’t think people have thought that through yet.” He also said that contact tracing in the current environment “would be like trying to plant your petunias in a Category 5 hurricane.” Osterholm said the United States has failed in its efforts to control the spread of the disease because it “declared victory over the virus when we had no business doing so.” “Public health can’t get rid of it but we surely can do a lot to limit it,” he said. “We’re going to be in this for the long haul, right now we estimate that about 8 to 10% of the U.S. population has been infected with this virus. This virus is not going to slow down in its transmission.”
 
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bigsnack

Member
Terrifying.

Is it really though? I’m sure this was the thinking In the midst of the Spanish flu pandemic, and look at how the flu is perceived now.

Also, if you could reduce the chance of COVID19 actually harming you in any meaningful way by simply removing refined sugar from your diet, would you do it? The data shows that unless you really let yourself go, this disease is not much more than one other thing that can take you out when you are over the age of 85. I’m not exactly sure if I define that as terrifying.
 
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Terrifying.
Ok. This expert gives the potential length of a immunity from a vaccine as “a month to several years”? I wonder how long you need to go to school to say something that fucking banal. First of all it’s nonsense to speculate and a guy like him should know better. Second MONTHS TO YEARS? That’s a pretty big range. If it’s years, that’s awesome! I get the flu shot every year for work. Just pack it in with that one.

The most interesting thing he said was the last part. They estimate 8-10% of the population in the US has had the disease. So let’s do some math with that. That’s 26-33 million. With a death toll of 160,000. That calculates to a death rate of 0.4-0.6. The majority of which are in the over 70 age group. Excluding them, you’re probably looking at a death rate of less than 0.2.
 

bigsnack

Member
Ok. This expert gives the potential length of a immunity from a vaccine as “a month to several years”? I wonder how long you need to go to school to say something that fucking banal. First of all it’s nonsense to speculate and a guy like him should know better. Second MONTHS TO YEARS? That’s a pretty big range. If it’s years, that’s awesome! I get the flu shot every year for work. Just pack it in with that one.

The most interesting thing he said was the last part. They estimate 8-10% of the population in the US has had the disease. So let’s do some math with that. That’s 26-33 million. With a death toll of 160,000. That calculates to a death rate of 0.4-0.6. The majority of which are in the over 70 age group. Excluding them, you’re probably looking at a death rate of less than 0.2.

Right! That's also assuming that they are accurately guessing the asymptomatic numbers, as well as folks who have cross immunity, and folks who can't even get it in the first place.
 
Right! That's also assuming that they are accurately guessing the asymptomatic numbers, as well as folks who have cross immunity, and folks who can't even get it in the first place.
I just think it’s wild people will find what he said scary. Except for his ridiculous speculation about vaccine acquired immunity only being one month, I found the entire quote pretty comforting.
 

diffusionx

Gold Member
So 60%+ of the population of the New York were infected in a month and a half and now have immunity? Or cases peaked 3 weeks after the lockdown, precisely because the virus could no longer spread?

And if New York now has herd immunity, why have cases been almost flat for the past 2 months at several hundred a day? How can a virus continue to spread if the susceptible population has been exhausted?

New York got COVID in January. It spread unimpeded for a good 2 months at least, and the system handled it just fine. We lived our normal lives. There were even massive parades and gatherings that the lockdown maniacs were telling us we should go to. When we got sick, and I got very sick with a flu-like illness that included a fever, hacking cough, and joint pain, we stayed home until we felt better.

NYC went into lockdown hysteria at the same time that everyone else did, when retard Rudy Gobert got that positive test that shut down the NBA. The truth is we have no idea how many people got COVID during this time, because nobody was testing, and nobody was implementing these insane procedures. We also have no idea how many people got or had the disease as late as May because there wasn't the test infrastructure to do so on a wide scale - the advice was, if you think you have it, stay home unless you have to go to the hospital. But just going by what living in this petri dish is like, it was a lot.

Terrifying.

It's really not terrifying at all. In all of human history, we have eradicated two diseases. Two. COVID is never going away, we have to either learn to live with it, or live in total and constant fear while everything around us and within us (like our mental health) is permanently destroyed. For a virus that 99.75% of people recover from. Your call.
 
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12Goblins

Lil’ Gobbie
I just think it’s wild people will find what he said scary. Except for his ridiculous speculation about vaccine acquired immunity only being one month, I found the entire quote pretty comforting.

It's a nightmare for ppl that work in health care. I'm so exhausted. Two of our staff members are intubated. No hazard pay. No end in sight. If we could just work together to curb this thing it would help
 

prag16

Banned
I just think it’s wild people will find what he said scary. Except for his ridiculous speculation about vaccine acquired immunity only being one month, I found the entire quote pretty comforting.
Not just scary, but terrifying. People have lost their minds, their common sense (if they ever had it to begin with), and the ability to engage in any semblance of critical thinking.
 
It's a nightmare for ppl that work in health care. I'm so exhausted. Two of our staff members are intubated. No hazard pay. No end in sight. If we could just work together to curb this thing it would help
I know it’s tough, but critical care is always tough. We had a staff member die of a heart attack in her late 30s last week. Nothing to do with COVID. Came into the ED and coded for an hour. It’s tough, but life is hard. This is nature of critical care and emergency medicine. I do sympathize. But this is how things are in hard times. Keep your head up. Things will get better in time.

As you get older, people you know will die. Sometimes unexpectedly. I know a guy in his low 40s who was diagnosed with end stage lung cancer a month ago. No significant history for anything including smoking. He’s going home on hospice in a couple days. I’m not sure he’ll actually make it home.

The point is, this is how life is. And if you work in critical care medicine, you have to find a way to compartmentalize this stuff. Its not always easy. I know that.
 

Jooxed

Gold Member
Well we got our buildings test results back today only 2 out of 160 staff and patients so that's not bad. One of them being 107 Years old and shes doing great. Dr Prescribed her Zythromax Zinc and Vitamin C hope she continues to do well.
 

CloudNull

Banned
Send another reminder when their Covid mortality has dropped below Denmark‘s.

= Never

Denmark has half the population of Sweden, also Denmark is in an upward swing of a second wave. This could be a fluke or minor bump.... we will have to wait and see.

Sweden has destroyed all projections made from the experts of other countries and they did it without closing down. It’s alright though all you people hating on Sweden can keep moving that goal post.
 
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