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Analysts expect Switch to outsell PS5 and Xbox Series consoles in 2021, boosted by new ‘Pro’ model

Bullet Club

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Analysts expect Switch to outsell PS5 and Xbox Series consoles in 2021, boosted by new ‘Pro’ model​

Industry observers forecast another strong year for Nintendo’s console

Multiple analysts have forecast that Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console of 2021.

Offering predictions for the year ahead in a GamesIndustry.biz article published on Monday, three industry observers suggested Nintendo’s near four-year-old platform will outsell Sony’s and Microsoft’s latest consoles, which have been supply constrained since launching in November 2020.

Two of the analysts, Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls and Kantan Games’ Dr. Serkan Toto, also forecast that a new Switch model will help drive strong sales for Nintendo’s system this year.

“I expect Nintendo’s Switch family of devices to be the best-selling consoles again in 2021 following a very strong 2020,” said Harding-Rolls.

“Last year I was unconvinced there would be a new flagship model Switch in 2020, but it makes more commercial sense to release an updated version in 2021. I currently have an updated version of the Switch in my forecasts for 2021.”

Harding-Rolls expects Switch to sell approximately 24 million units this year and combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S sales to hit 25 million.

Kantan Games’ Toto predicts Nintendo will launch “a beefed-up 4K” Switch model during its next financial year, which begins in April 2021.

“Everybody expecting the Switch to run out of steam in 2021 is in for a bitter disappointment,” he said. “The Switch will be the best-selling console this year as well, driven by more first-party games, a hardware refresh (see above), and the device having developed into a lifestyle product for the mass market over the course of 2020.”

The NPD Group’s Mat Piscatella also expects Nintendo’s console to come out on top in 2021.

“Despite the launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, it will be the Nintendo Switch that ends up selling the most units of console hardware in 2021,” he predicted.

“I will go a step further and suggest this will be driven by content and promotional efforts rather than the release of a new iterative model.”

Multiple outlets have reported that Nintendo is preparing to launch new Switch hardware in early 2021 and that it might feature upgraded computing power and support for 4K graphics.

Asked about ‘Switch Pro’, as it’s been nicknamed, during a Polygon interview published last month, Nintendo of America president Doug Bowser played down reports that the company is planning an imminent Switch revamp.

“Right now, with the momentum that we have, our focus will be on the existing form factors,” he said.

“First, we’re always looking at technology,” Bowser added. “And as we know, technology is constantly evolving and changing. And we’re always looking at what is coming to determine: How can it enhance and improve the gameplay experience? And whether that’s on a current platform, or whether that’s on a future platform, we’re always looking at that.

“However, we also see right now — and we just talked about it — that the momentum on Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch Lite in the fourth year is strong. And we believe we’re changing the trajectory of another typical console life cycle.

“And we will continue, for the foreseeable future, to really lean into both of those platforms and the content that comes with it, because it’s the symbiotic relationship that makes the real difference. And it’s why Nintendo Switch is so differentiated.”

Bowser also reiterated Nintendo’s belief that the Switch platform is “just at the midpoint” of its life cycle.

Switch launched in March 2017 and had sold over 68 million units as of September 2020, according to Nintendo.

Source: VGC
 

MrA

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not really surprising, the ps5's library is still limited, the price is high, and the availability won't be 100% there yet, the switch should have little trouble outselling it this year, next year should be interesting to see how the ps5 and switch jockey for position.
 
Mar 12, 2015
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My sister has expressed interest in getting each of her four kids a Switch lite. The Switch ain't slowing down soon, not when you can sell 4+ to families that wouldn't dare buy 4+ of either Sony or Microsoft's home consoles.
 

kiphalfton

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My sister has expressed interest in getting each of her four kids a Switch lite. The Switch ain't slowing down soon, not when you can sell 4+ to families that wouldn't dare buy 4+ of either Sony or Microsoft's home consoles.

Why? I mean get something to keep them active instead... like a basketball hoop, trampoline, pool, pool table, instruments, etc.
 

Ten_Fold

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Zelda collection and possible BOTW2, along with new Pokémon this year? If you add a pro model then yeah the switch will out sell the ps5/Xbox series X.
 
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cryptoadam

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Combined. Will be tough. Japan though is dead for them and Nintendo will sell like crazy there. Sony will do well in Europe but they need games.

Switch pro will hit some time in q1. They dont want to take away sales from the last quarter of the year. A few weeks after Rise with maybe a MH theme/Bundle?

Nintendo still has MK9 splatoon 3 another 3d Mario along with BoTW 2 and Metroid.
 

SLoWMoTIoN

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lol
 

jaysius

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Imagine of Nintendo realized that it's fanbase will buy ANYTHING it puts out, no matter HOW FEW GAMES it has.

Then imagine a Nintendo that takes that fact into consideration and actually releases a machine WITH 3rd PARTY AAA dev support.

The old trash the Switch is made out of must mean pure profit for Nintendo at this point.
 
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carlosrox

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Day 1 for any hardware upgrade they give us, fingers crossed for something solid and not just some battery upgrade and a redesign or something.
 
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Silvawuff

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Whoa there, who are these Analysts? They have no idea how hard Nintendo will dig its heels into their current strategy. New hardware this year? I’d be very surprised.
 

carlosrox

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New hardware this year? I’d be very surprised.

More than likely just a revision. I dunno about the 4k, that sounds like a pipe dream for a revision.

If it has a significant power upgrade than it won't be treated as just a revision but a true Pro upgrade like the PS4 Pro and 1X were.

That's what I want ideally but I'm not counting on it. I'm expecting a small increase in power at best. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised.


Although it is in Nintendo's best interest to stay competitive and relevant to keep another 'end of Wii generation' from happening again.
They'd be stupid to let that happen again.
 

Kerotan

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Could a switch 4k become what the wii u was to the wii? Having a 4k handheld isn't a big deal. Either way 2022 is my guess.
 

MayauMiao

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Definitely getting the Switch Pro. I doubt 4k is what the Pro will improve on and likely improve it to allow nice 1080p/60fps.
 

Hudo

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I am quite interested in the PowerSwitch myself (plebs call it Switch Pro)
 

Ryu Kaiba

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Imagine of Nintendo realized that it's fanbase will buy ANYTHING it puts out, no matter HOW FEW GAMES it has.

Then imagine a Nintendo that takes that fact into consideration and actually releases a machine WITH 3rd PARTY AAA dev support.

The old trash the Switch is made out of must mean pure profit for Nintendo at this point.
1) They don't Wii U is proof of that.
2) Making more expensive hardware to compete on power and online services with the other 2 much larger companies won't work. People will go to other platforms for AAA 3rd parties.
3) Yes Switch is printing money, they don't need a new equation, just make a better Switch occasionally. And the hardware isn't trash when you accept the fact that It's a handheld.
 
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Why? I mean get something to keep them active instead... like a basketball hoop, trampoline, pool, pool table, instruments, etc.
Don't tell me how to tell my sister how to parent her kids lol

But honestly, the why of it is because they enjoy video games, and they already have plenty of other toys and gizmos to keep them active and busy, and sharing the main switch gets to be a bit of a hassle among four kids.
 
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Spukc

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I sold my day 1 SWITCH for a premium 3 weeks ago.
waiting currently for this damn PRO model
 

SaucyJack

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Will Switch be the best selling console of 2021? Very likely.

Will it outsell PS5 and XSX|S combined? Nah, no way. PS5 will sell every unit it can produce and they’re forecasting what, 18 million? XSX|S will easy do another 10-15 on top of that.

Will there be a Pro Switch? Doubt, and not convinced it would do that much for sales.
 

Chytin

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In my dreams, a new Nintendo Switch and Apple's M1 would be a great fit. Very capable and efficiënt.
The M1 is already able to emulate Switch games. Apple likes money, Nintendo should try to license the tech.
 
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MagnesG

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Metroid Prime, anything 2D Metroid (Samus port, remakes, or Metroid 5) :messenger_crying:

More than likely just a revision. I dunno about the 4k, that sounds like a pipe dream for a revision.

If it has a significant power upgrade than it won't be treated as just a revision but a true Pro upgrade like the PS4 Pro and 1X were.

That's what I want ideally but I'm not counting on it. I'm expecting a small increase in power at best. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised.


Although it is in Nintendo's best interest to stay competitive and relevant to keep another 'end of Wii generation' from happening again.
They'd be stupid to let that happen again.
I also don't believe that the "Pro" upgrades will be big, it's just that even the current Switch is heavily underclocked right now to conserve the battery and rectifying heat issues. Even a new hardware capable clocking higher than the current Switch would be significant in terms of upgrade, now with a little boost on the specs these upgrades would be massive.
 

Zannegan

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I just hope they plan to launch the pro with a buttload of unannounced games. A spec bump alone won't drive its sales, and they won't get struck by lightning (Animal Crossing) twice.

Plus, I just selfishly want new games with my pro, which I will absolutely buy for its spec bump.

Hmm...
 
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gela94

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If there really will be a pro version then Nintendo better not fucking that up like with the 3ds and "new" 3ds bullshit !! They got me once I won't fall for it again.
 

MagnesG

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I just hope they plan to launch the pro with a buttload of unannounced games. A spec bump alone won't drive its sales, and they won't get struck by lightning (Animal Crossing) twice.

Plus, I just selfishly want new games with my pro, which I will absolutely buy for its spec bump.

Hmm...
10 mil++ new hardware seller games wildcard

MH Rise
BOTW2
Mario Kart 9
New 3D Mario
New Pokemon

Also the past hardware seller evergreen games (AC, MK 8, BOTW, SSBU, Pokemon SwSh) are still selling hard, probably are bought with every new system purchase.
 
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Mister Wolf

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If the Pro can provide high resolution Xenoblade then its a day one purchase for me. Detailed world and textures crippled by being displayed at 720p on the Switch. Biggest travesty on the console.
 
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KungFucius

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I don't see the business need for a pro. They are selling units fast and they frequently go out of stock still. They make money on the games and accessories and just a little on the system, though more today on it than in 2017. If it is just for the fans that would upgrade their current switch, what is the angle? Get them to upgrade, make more used switches available for new customers? Does it gain them an advantage longer term? Can they keep from launching a switch 2 a couple of years due to a mid gen refresh? I just don't see it really increasing their market share so why waste time designing it when you could spend those resources developing a switch 2?
 
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Loope

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I only game on PC and this is the only console that interests me altough i never had a Nintendo console.
 

Bryank75

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200 dollar machine vs 500 dollar machines (That have just started production really)

Better comparison would be dollar sales. My bet is that PS5 has the highest dollar sales of them.
 

MagnesG

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I don't see the business need for a pro. They are selling units fast and they frequently go out of stock still. They make money on the games and accessories and just a little on the system, though more today on it than in 2017. If it is just for the fans that would upgrade their current switch, what is the angle? Get them to upgrade, make more used switches available for new customers? Does it gain them an advantage longer term? Can they keep from launching a switch 2 a couple of years due to a mid gen refresh? I just don't see it really increasing their market share so why waste time designing it when you could spend those resources developing a switch 2?
Works well if we look at their handheld line history, and Switch is pretty much a one system per person unlike classic consoles, families owning 2+ Switch systems are normal.

200 dollar machine vs 500 dollar machines (That have just started production really)

Better comparison would be dollar sales. My bet is that PS5 has the highest dollar sales of them.
Switch lite is $200 while Switch is still $300, what about the $400 PS5 DE? We also have the 4:1 ratio for original Switch vs Switch lite.
Also selling it at a loss is not a pretty good metric lol.
 
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