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Analyst: Lifetime Switch sales to eclipse PS2, NO Switch Pro, new Nintendo console in 2024

NeoIkaruGAF

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would love to see Switch over take the PS2
I'd love to see it just to witness the amazeballs goalpost moving that would inevitably happen on any forum on the internet.

It's quite funny already to see people talking about households having multiple Switches because it's a handheld. Like we haven't always known that not a few people had to buy more than one PS2 due to the hardware not being exactly built like a tank.
 

Captain Toad

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Nintendo puts out the same software every gen. A mario kart game, a smash bros game, a few pokemon games and a couple zelda and mario games. Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, animal crossing and Luigis mansion! Yay
Halo, Forza, Gears
Uncharted, Spider-Man, God of War
Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, Street Fighter
Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Tomb Raider
Assassin's Creed, Assassin's Creed, Assassin's Creed
 
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Halo, Forza, Gears
Uncharted, Spider-Man, God of War
Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, Street Fighter
Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Tomb Raider
Assassin's Creed, Assassin's Creed, Assassin's Creed
Ain't you forgetting all the actual 3rd party support sony and Microsoft get? This adds tons of variety, quality and quantity and makes Nintendo look even worse. Their lineup is totally reliant on their 1st party which has been mostly the same for a long time with barely any new IP. What about the horrible droughts between releases. Why is this acceptable? Would it be acceptable for sony or microsoft?
 
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Captain Toad

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Ain't you forgetting all the actual 3rd party support sony and Microsoft get? This adds tons of variety, quality and quantity and makes Nintendo look even worse. Their lineup is totally reliant on their 1st party which has been mostly the same for a long time with barely any new IP. What about the horrible droughts between releases. Why is this acceptable? Would it be acceptable for sony or microsoft?
Capcom and Square put out plenty of Nintendo exclusives. There's more third-party support on Switch than any Nintendo console since the SNES.

You're wrong. Take the L.
 

MrA

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PS4 be like
john travolta GIF
ps4 sales have absolutely cratered, it might not even reach 120 million (as if that's bad sales right?) given the limited manufacturing and the 100% back-compatibility, I doubt Sony will make many more ps4 consoles as every ps4 they make reduces how many ps5s they can make
 

from1699

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Jun 9, 2021
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NSW is lagging behind NDS, despite pandemic-fueled growth (which won't last forever)

Year 4
NDS 96.22
NSW 84.59

Year 5
NDS 125.13
NSW 110.0 (Nintendo's Forecast)

Year 6
NDS 144.59

Year 7
NDS 151.06

Year 8
NDS 153.67

Year 9
NDS 153.98

Year 10
NDS 154.02

Yes.
But... Switch still has a number of cards up his sleeve that were used with the DS (and PS2) much more quickly. Starting with price reductions.
 

b6a6es

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The Switch is closing in on 90 million, and it hasn't even had a price drop. That's unprecedented. Traditionally, most of a console's sales happed after its price is reduced. This thing will take off like a rocket when it eventually starts selling for $150.
But … It had a massive price-drop, it’s called the switch lite
 
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Sleepwalker

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With 2 (3) pokemon games coming soon and botw 2 it's gonna fly of the shelves again, specially as they start releasing more collector editions etc.
 
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Capcom and Square put out plenty of Nintendo exclusives. There's more third-party support on Switch than any Nintendo console since the SNES.

You're wrong. Take the L.
Na. You cant change my opinion that the switch is lacking. I think they could be doing so much more. That's just how I feel and its totally fine if someone else feels the opposite. Im being genuine too and not debating in bad faith. I've owned every Nintendo hardware in existence. Yes, I was one of the 13m people to own the wii u.
 
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Marty-McFly

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But … It had a massive price-drop, it’s called the switch lite
That's like saying XSS is a massive pricedrop when in reality it's just a gimped model that much less consumers want to settle for.
 
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Marty-McFly

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With 2 (3) pokemon games coming soon and botw 2 it's gonna fly of the shelves again, specially as they start releasing more collector editions etc.
I would wager even less successful franchises like Dread, Prime 4, NMH3, SMTV, Bayonetta 3 ect. will do well for hardware sales even though they won't sell nearly as many software copies as they will pull in fans of those franchises as well.

There is still so much untapped potential, not to mention virtual console releases that Nintendo has been stingy about, to drag out Switch sales no less.

We haven't even seen the Prime Trilogy or the remasters of Windwaker and TTP that Nintendo already made for Wii U.

They must be sitting on a ton of content, ready to drop it when they need it.
 
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leo-j

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DS dropped after 3ds release. Pretty much every console's sales drop off a cliff after the next one comes out. PS2 is the glaring exception.

Wii sales dropped off quite a bit in 2011. And then Wii U was announced and released the next year which definitely killed it off. But it was a little more faddish because of WiiSports push into mainstream.


Switch will get to 100 million this year and the $350 OLED model is $350 ie no price drop but a price increase. Nintendo says 25 million sales this fiscal year which means 110 million by next March if they are correct. Usually their estimates are conservative but they are estimates and once in awhile they are wrong. Pandemic going away is surely an xfactor. Acceptance of the $350 OLED is another xfactor. And what games are coming in 2022 will also determine sales.

But I probably mentioned this before in this thread or another - Nintendo has room to drop the price and bundle games - inflation not withstanding.

btw PS2 had 1/3 of its sales after the PS3 was released if internets is correct. I think it was a combination of Sony getting the price way down thru costs cuts including slimmed down new skus and it having a DVD player plus Ps3 being $600 couldn't have hurt.
Wii sales started dropping in 2010. Partly imo because of kinect and move, and sony’s more blue market approach to marketing with a $299 ps3 redesign. But nintendo handheld sales peaked with DS at 150 million +. And 3DS fell hard after it hit 80 million (before the switch lite.) There is a saturation point is what I am saying. We shall see, but once xcloud and remoteplay features become more prominent and easier to stream in a couple years, and tablets like the steam platform become more prominent spec wise, I do not expect switch to be doing 15 million a year numbers . The switch will do well even after it hits 100 million I believe but idk how well it’s going to do passed 110 considering the trends i’ve seen with nintendo platforms.
 

Azelover

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Wii sales started dropping in 2010. Partly imo because of kinect and move, and sony’s more blue market approach to marketing with a $299 ps3 redesign. But nintendo handheld sales peaked with DS at 150 million +. And 3DS fell hard after it hit 80 million (before the switch lite.) There is a saturation point is what I am saying. We shall see, but once xcloud and remoteplay features become more prominent and easier to stream in a couple years, and tablets like the steam platform become more prominent spec wise, I do not expect switch to be doing 15 million a year numbers . The switch will do well even after it hits 100 million I believe but idk how well it’s going to do passed 110 considering the trends i’ve seen with nintendo platforms.
The Wii sales started to wane because Nintendo wasn't able to keep up the momentum. They screwed up by making Wii Music their holiday smash in 2008. For the moment sales were fine, but almost immediately after the year turned, it was clear the momentum was stopping. It could have continued to snowball into even higher sales, IMO.

It took a lot effort and energy to get the ball rolling again. And by the time it did, it didn't matter anymore, because the audience had moved onto the App Store and Google Play. It didn't have anything to do with Kinect or Move...If Nintendo hadn't lost the momentum to smarphones, they would have steamrolled right over Microsoft and Sony all over again.
 
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FStubbs

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The Wii sales started to wane because Nintendo wasn't able to keep up the momentum. They screwed up by making Wii Music their holiday smash in 2008. For the moment sales were fine, but almost immediately after the year turned, it was clear the momentum was stopping. It could have continued to snowball into even higher sales, IMO.

It took a lot effort and energy to get the ball rolling again. And by the time it did, it didn't matter anymore, because the audience had moved onto the App Store and Google Play. It didn't have anything to do with Kinect or Move...If Nintendo hadn't lost the momentum to smarphones, they would have steamrolled right over Microsoft and Sony all over again.
I never really understood that narrative. Wii Sports was a totally different experience than Candy Crush. Nintendo not following up Wii Sports with enough expanded gamer content was a separate issue than the rise of smartphones. If smartphone gaming killed anything, it was "Touch Generation" games on DS like Brain Age.
 

Marty-McFly

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The Wii sales started to wane because Nintendo wasn't able to keep up the momentum. They screwed up by making Wii Music their holiday smash in 2008. For the moment sales were fine, but almost immediately after the year turned, it was clear the momentum was stopping. It could have continued to snowball into even higher sales, IMO.

It took a lot effort and energy to get the ball rolling again. And by the time it did, it didn't matter anymore, because the audience had moved onto the App Store and Google Play. It didn't have anything to do with Kinect or Move...If Nintendo hadn't lost the momentum to smarphones, they would have steamrolled right over Microsoft and Sony all over again.
The Wii was much more of a casual device than the Switch and the games reflected it. Personally, I don't think it was Nintendo's finest moment. They were being innovative, but the motion tech was a novelty that was never good enough to replace the traditional control's, or polished enough, it was just an alternative for a console gaming minority and casuals who departed from it for smart phones. Switch's success feels more legitimate, which is why the fanbase it's building is more loyal.
 

leo-j

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The Wii sales started to wane because Nintendo wasn't able to keep up the momentum. They screwed up by making Wii Music their holiday smash in 2008. For the moment sales were fine, but almost immediately after the year turned, it was clear the momentum was stopping. It could have continued to snowball into even higher sales, IMO.

It took a lot effort and energy to get the ball rolling again. And by the time it did, it didn't matter anymore, because the audience had moved onto the App Store and Google Play. It didn't have anything to do with Kinect or Move...If Nintendo hadn't lost the momentum to smarphones, they would have steamrolled right over Microsoft and Sony all over again.
Right because releasing Wii motion plus and an entire new Zelda 3D game , Mario galaxy 2, monster hunter 3, Metroid other M, and Xenoblade was totally not keeping up the momentum. And they also released a $99 Wii late in its life cycle too, the console just stopped selling.
 

e&e

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How the hell do Nintendo do it? Shit hardware and barely any software yet they manage sales numbers that are unheard of! 28m in one year is insane. I guess Japan plays a huge part.
This is quite literally the dumbest question I’ve ever seen asked here. Here is a little nudge little Timmy since it’s so hard to use your brain:

Hardware…sells…because…of…lots…of…software…
Hardware…sells…because…hardware…is…good…
 
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b6a6es

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That's like saying XSS is a massive pricedrop when in reality it's just a gimped model that much less consumers want to settle for.
XSS is an entirely different console as it straight up less internal specs features than series x which causes the games to run differently (lacking 4K output as well as many games lacking Raytracing on XSS)

Switch lite basically plays exactly the same internal features & specs as the regular SKU minus the ability to play on TV (you can use a 3rd party adapter) & Joycon features (which you can buy them separately)

and it’s not the first time Nintendo done this, 2DS straight up lacked the 3d features & Wii mini which straight up removed all internet features as well as the Gamecube BC, both were made to cut costs similar to Switch lite
 
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MrA

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XSS is an entirely different console as it straight up less internal specs features than series x which causes the games to run differently (lacking 4K output as well as many games lacking Raytracing on XSS)

Switch lite basically plays exactly the same internal features & specs as the regular SKU minus the ability to play on TV (you can use a 3rd party adapter) & Joycon features (which you can buy them separately)

and it’s not the first time Nintendo done this, 2DS straight up lacked the 3d features & Wii mini which straight up removed all internet features as well as the Gamecube BC, both were made to cut costs similar to Switch lite
no you can't, try to be informed 2 seconds of research would have shown you this isn't possible
 

Yselacrey00

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Nov 20, 2018
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I doubt there will be stop-gap consoles this cycle. The only reason we got them last time was because they went cheap with mobile Jaguar CPUs. The CPUs this time around are more than enough to cover the entire generation.
Yeah, I think the same but there's competition, so I would expect for one of them to do it and the other one to follow through.
 

cartman414

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Best for them to wait it out anyways. Better HW will likely be due by then. (Though of course Nintendo will lowball to maximize their profits.)
 

CitizenZ

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So many things to say but I will just say, congrats on a system I have never seen, nor heard anyone ever say "Did you play X on Switch OMG!!!!!"
 

Marty-McFly

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XSS is an entirely different console as it straight up less internal specs features than series x which causes the games to run differently (lacking 4K output as well as many games lacking Raytracing on XSS)

Switch lite basically plays exactly the same internal features & specs as the regular SKU minus the ability to play on TV (you can use a 3rd party adapter) & Joycon features (which you can buy them separately)

and it’s not the first time Nintendo done this, 2DS straight up lacked the 3d features & Wii mini which straight up removed all internet features as well as the Gamecube BC, both were made to cut costs similar to Switch lite
Both Switch Lite and XSS are cheaper alternatives yet seen as inferior SKU's that are not selling as well the premium devices, Switch and XSX.

So the inference that Switch lowered is price is wrong. Lite is just a gimped SKU that is not as appealing to the mass market, just as XSS.
 
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Kataploom

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Nintendo puts out the same software every gen. A mario kart game, a smash bros game, a few pokemon games and a couple zelda and mario games. Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, animal crossing and Luigis mansion! Yay
I'm pretty sure you don't play Nintendo games and talk without knowing them in the slightest lol. Nintendo can keep Switch 1 or 2 years more with their IPs cause they rarely are more of the same... Actually, even more considering younger generations are very art style sensible and are very used to play much less visually impresive games on their phones
 

Marty-McFly

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I'm pretty sure you don't play Nintendo games and talk without knowing them in the slightest lol. Nintendo can keep Switch 1 or 2 years more with their IPs cause they rarely are more of the same... Actually, even more considering younger generations are very art style sensible and are very used to play much less visually impresive games on their phones
This is actually a great point. The mass market are used to playing games that usually look and play like crap on cell phones. Nintendo's offering's must seem like a dream come true to them, which is why the importance forums place on graphics doesn't translate to the real world, who are buying Switch's in droves, while devices like the more powerful Steam Deck (as seen in the OP post) cater to a much smaller audience.
 

Tschumi

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I mean.. I'm speaking as someone who has tried the vast majority of games available on switch across the half dozen other platforms, hacked and otherwise, i have (including pc) and it bothers me that a console with that kind of library could threaten PS2.

*Sniff* I'm gonna reroll FFXII
 
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I'm pretty sure you don't play Nintendo games and talk without knowing them in the slightest lol. Nintendo can keep Switch 1 or 2 years more with their IPs cause they rarely are more of the same... Actually, even more considering younger generations are very art style sensible and are very used to play much less visually impresive games on their phones

Man I'm so tempted to post a pic of my switch just to make you look like an ass but I will have mercy on you. Learn to accept other peoples opinions without resorting to personal accusations. You have no idea about my gaming history and tastes. I'm just giving my damn honest opinion. Did I personally attack anyone or make accusations? Do you act like this face to face with someone when they have differing opinions to you?
 
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I doubt there will be stop-gap consoles this cycle. The only reason we got them last time was because they went cheap with mobile Jaguar CPUs. The CPUs this time around are more than enough to cover the entire generation.
Nope. The CPU on those mid-gen consoles got barely improved (1.3x more) while the GPU was improved significantly (2.25x and 4.6x more)
 
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Mozza

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Man I'm so tempted to post a pic of my switch just to make you look like an ass but I will have mercy on you. Learn to accept other peoples opinions without resorting to personal accusations. You have no idea about my gaming history and tastes. I'm just giving my damn honest opinion. Did I personally attack anyone or make accusations? Do you act like this face to face with someone when they have differing opinions to you?
Most of the internet posting minorities are very closed off in terms of what they like, and what they think others should buy too, I like you are one of those gadget obsessed minorities, the only difference is we actually realize it, I am glad the Switch is having the success it has, as I feel Nintendo deserves it, I thought the Switch would be a hit as soon as it was revealed, but even I could not of imagined how well it would sell. ;)
 
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Mozza

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I'd love to see it just to witness the amazeballs goalpost moving that would inevitably happen on any forum on the internet.

It's quite funny already to see people talking about households having multiple Switches because it's a handheld. Like we haven't always known that not a few people had to buy more than one PS2 due to the hardware not being exactly built like a tank.
Without a doubt, prepare yourself for the it's a handheld console so it should not be compared to the dedicated home consoles arguments, of course if it had bombed then those very same comparisons would be fine. ;)
 
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Mozza

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Halo, Forza, Gears
Uncharted, Spider-Man, God of War
Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, Street Fighter
Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Tomb Raider
Assassin's Creed, Assassin's Creed, Assassin's Creed
It's called selective reasoning, heaven forbid a games developer should make a popular franchise than make more games in the series, what has the movie industry been doing since time began. ;)
 
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Bo_Hazem

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I think Steam Deck might slow down Switch sales a bit, even though if not directly buying Steam Deck itself but some people will start to question their investment.
 
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EDMIX

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Capcom and Square put out plenty of Nintendo exclusives. There's more third-party support on Switch than any Nintendo console since the SNES.

You're wrong. Take the L.

They do, but the 3rd party support MS and Sony receive is just far greater.

Even by the very publishers you stated. MS and Sony get stuff like Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, FF MMOs, Resident Evils etc day 1

I'm enjoying the shit out of Resident Evil 8 on PS4, something that literally doesn't exist on Switch, in fact.....most of the big AAA 3rd party titles coming this fall....are not coming to Switch.

So...I agree with you that Capcom and Square put out exclusive stuff on Nintendos system, but the amount that is being missed is massive.

Giving someone Monster Hunters stories and be like minus Monster Hunter World, DMC5, Resident Evil remake 2 and 3 and RE8 lol I agree they are getting support, but the support MS and Sony get by 3rd party is so fucking massive, its by default. As in, when they announce a new Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, AC, Call Of Duty, Yakuza etc come the fuck on, we all know 99% of the time, its PS, XB, PC annnnnnd skip Nintendo, like MOST times, in fact it would be a new story in and of its self if Ubisoft was like "Ok Watchdogs 4 coming out, PS5, PC, XB and ummm switch now we have new things pla-"

Fans "holy fucking shit did you just sa-"

Ubisoft " come on, folks relax, just trying to get thru this press event" lol

This is one of the platforms where if you own it, expect majority of the biggest titles to skip it entirely. I agree Square and Capcom put out some titles on it, but shit even the publishers you just name put the MAJORITY of their content on Sony and MS consoles.
 
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MrA

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Without a doubt, prepare yourself for the it's a handheld console so it should not be compared to the dedicated home consoles arguments, of course if it had bombed then those very same comparisons would be fine. ;)
Considering we've had user claim the switch only had success due to the pandemic, then turn around and claim the ps5 is doing so we'll despite the pandemic, you know the goal post shifts will be epic
I personally feel pitty for those that get mad that other people like what they don't like, I don't like gran turismo or forza (find sim racers boring ) but it doesn't bother me each series sell millions, or that halo and call of duty are huge hits even though I dont like them (though I do appreciate infinite restoring 4 player splitscreen ) though I do find it annoying when other game devs go lemming on copying stuff
 

michaelius

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I doubt there will be stop-gap consoles this cycle. The only reason we got them last time was because they went cheap with mobile Jaguar CPUs. The CPUs this time around are more than enough to cover the entire generation.

That doesn't make sense - Jaguar cpu was same in improved consoles. They made them to tap into 4K enthusiast market.

This time Sony has motivation to offer most powerfull console and Microsoft will try to defend their advntage in teoretical teraflops.
 

TheKratos

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This is quite literally the dumbest question I’ve ever seen asked here. Here is a little nudge little Timmy since it’s so hard to use your brain:

Hardware…sells…because…of…lots…of…software…
Hardware…sells…because…hardware…is…good…

I bet you clapped inbetween the typing.
 

Mozza

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Considering we've had user claim the switch only had success due to the pandemic, then turn around and claim the ps5 is doing so we'll despite the pandemic, you know the goal post shifts will be epic
I personally feel pitty for those that get mad that other people like what they don't like, I don't like gran turismo or forza (find sim racers boring ) but it doesn't bother me each series sell millions, or that halo and call of duty are huge hits even though I dont like them (though I do appreciate infinite restoring 4 player splitscreen ) though I do find it annoying when other game devs go lemming on copying stuff
The pandemic sales reasoning is insane , the Switch has sold awesome numbers since it's launch, way before the global pandemic came into the equation.
 

Papacheeks

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I think unless they do some price reductions, they won't beat PS2 in terms of lifetime sales in the span of time. They easily will break 100 Million for sure. But 150 Million without price reduction is a 50/50.
 

Mozza

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I think Steam Deck might slow down Switch sales a bit, even though if not directly buying Steam Deck itself but some people will start to question their investment.
I think it will have no impact whatsoever on the Switch's sales, it's a nice piece of kit, but in reality how many P.C gamers are going to want to give up their high spec rigs, and play on a small screen at much lower quality, niche market product at best, total bomb worst case scenario.
 
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Stuart360

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IMO Switch has zero chance of beating PS2, and there are a lot more gamers today than in PS2's glory years.
Unless you are going to include 'Switch 2' sales, which wouldnt be fair imo.