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Analyst: Lifetime Switch sales to eclipse PS2, NO Switch Pro, new Nintendo console in 2024

Apr 5, 2021
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I mean you can think whatever you want about the software, but saying there is barely software is just flat-out false.

Even in comparison to other Nintendo systems, the software is lacking. A lot of the good stuff isnt even new but ports of wii u games and at full price too but lets just gloss over Nintendo's shitty decisions. Imagine the backlash if microsoft or Sony tried to pull even half the shit they do. Imo, the switch is one of Nintendo's worst systems. Even the wii had more redeeming qualities.
 
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Dec 12, 2018
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Even in comparison to other Nintendo systems, the software is lacking.
There is a huge library of games. Wherever you like the library or not is a matter of taste, but the number of software releases speaks for itself. It's the Nintendo system with the biggest amount of games, that is just how it is.

I agree that Nintendo shouldn't sell ports at full price (even if the games are very good) and makes decisions I don't like (their poor Online service, their stance on copyright, Nintendo Online lineup of retro games etc.), but the software lineup on Switch is great.
 

MagnesG

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Apr 20, 2019
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Even in comparison to other Nintendo systems, the software is lacking. A lot of the good stuff isnt even new but ports of wii u games and at full price too but lets just gloss over Nintendo's shitty decisions. Imagine the backlash if microsoft or Sony tried to pull even half the shit they do. Imo, the switch is one of Nintendo's worst systems. Even the wii had more redeeming qualities.
Did they have games or not? Anything else, your feelings are not important. Your imagination means shit.
 

MrA

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Even in comparison to other Nintendo systems, the software is lacking. A lot of the good stuff isnt even new but ports of wii u games and at full price too but lets just gloss over Nintendo's shitty decisions. Imagine the backlash if microsoft or Sony tried to pull even half the shit they do. Imo, the switch is one of Nintendo's worst systems. Even the wii had more redeeming qualities.
man, you just live in a fantasy wonderland, just because it is something you don't want doesn't mean other people don't
,
and of the top 100 highest rated Metacritic games on switch only 7 are wiiu ports, and it has over 330 games rated over 80 on Metacritic against 450 on ps4, (even better 5 of the ps4s top 10 are ps3 ports, so ouch on that for some reason) the switch has 900 games rated over 70 vs 1200 on ps4 (not to mention tons of switch digital releases go unreviewed included some that are genuinely good games (dark witch saga, a trio of nice megaman style games for example) even though there is tons of dreck
the switch has mountains of games, just because you choose not to recognize them doesn't mean they don't exist
 

Sub Boss

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Unlikely that its gonna outsell the legendary PS2, that is one of a kind.

But Switch is still awesome 🤟
 
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Apr 5, 2021
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There is a huge library of games. Wherever you like the library or not is a matter of taste, but the number of software releases speaks for itself. It's the Nintendo system with the biggest amount of games, that is just how it is.

I agree that Nintendo shouldn't sell ports at full price (even if the games are very good) and makes decisions I don't like (their poor Online service, their stance on copyright, Nintendo Online lineup of retro games etc.), but the software lineup on Switch is great.

i know its just my personal opinion and taste. clearly nintendo are doing something right with the switch selling ridiculous numbers. also thank you for replying to me like a respectful human being and not like some of these other guys who attack me for my fucking opinion. grow the fuck up! its just videogames.
 
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Roufianos

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I wouldn't be surprised, this thing is tapping into two markets - both handheld and console. Look at how much the Wii and DS sold combined.

I just wish I got more use out of mine. Mario Odyssey, Donkey Kong and BotW were awesome, so was going back to Sunshine, but I've barely got any use out of mine. Please let Legends: Arceus be good. Hyped for Metroid Dread too.
 
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Rikkori

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lol they'd have to compete with a RDNA 4 + Zen 5 Steam Deck version by then

Matthew Broderick Jewish GIF
 

Nico_D

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New console already? But analysts told me Switch pro is just around the corner.

Good for Nintendo anyway!
 

kingfey

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The thing is consoles have a sales curve: they start and end with lower sales, and have their sales yearly peak during mid gen, around aprox its 4th year.

What we saw in the recent year or two aprox. was Switch's sales peak that all consoles have, but in this case also extra boosted by the covid related boost the other digital entertainment and internet companies also experienced. Boost that cought the other consoles in the lower parts of their sales cycle: when they are ending or when they are starting, so the boost was smaller for them. And on top of that they were also affected by the chips shortage.

What I mean is that we shouldn't expect to continue see Switch with crazy sales numbers all the upcoming years, but instead will start slowly decreasing soon and some time later to decrease faster.

In addition to this, Sony home consoles keep in the market for over 10 years, can be there for a dozen years. As an example, we saw Jim Ryan mentioning in the 'we believe in generations' interview that they will continue supporting PS4 for at least 2 or 3 years after PS5 release because there's still a huge monthly active userbase on PS4 (over 80M MAU as of now) and will continue for a while there even if they continue selling PS5s at gaming history record levels.

Meanwhile Nintendo consoles have a shorter life cycle, of around 5-6 years for most home consoles and for 8-9 years for portables and Wii. So I think we expect Switch to last until 2022-2023 or to 2025-2026, and its next gen succesor to be released a year or so before.

So I think that even if Switch as of now ahead of PS2 and PS4 in launch aligned sales, I think that in the very long run will end behind them because Sony consoles have a longer tail. As an example, PS4 will turn 8 years old soon and early next year or so will get games like Horizon 2, God of War Ragnarok or Gran Turismo 7 plus many other top selling multi or exclusive crossgen games.
With BOW getting announced for switch, I doubt Nintendo are very stupid to stop this console, especially after the WII U disaster. They will capitalize on the switch, until they see upward down sales on the hardware, and software sales.

Currently, the switch has the highest software sales in any device, considering its games are top 10. And they are dominating the Playstation, in term of software sales in Japan. Famitsu weekly sales are all about the switch, being on the top.

With these performances, expect the switch to go upward, and getting sold alot. Announcing new hardware, will hinder the software sales of the switch.

And as for jim Ryan, he is businessman. That we believe in generation is just a crap talk to make people hype. Whether the media took out wrong or not, he saw something that we have haven't. The ps5 is new device, and won't have enough software sales, anytime soon. That is why they are supporting the ps4, to compensate the lack of software sales on ps5.

On main evidence is their performance in Japan. It seems the ps5 software is lacking in Japan, according to famitsu sales report.
 

KungFucius

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Even in comparison to other Nintendo systems, the software is lacking. A lot of the good stuff isnt even new but ports of wii u games and at full price too but lets just gloss over Nintendo's shitty decisions. Imagine the backlash if microsoft or Sony tried to pull even half the shit they do. Imo, the switch is one of Nintendo's worst systems. Even the wii had more redeeming qualities.
Neither MS or Sony ported games, with upgrades from a platform that sold less than 1/7th of units compared to their current one. For more than 6/7ths of Switch owners the ports are new. I don't know how anyone can call that a shitty decision. The WiiU was a shitty decision, trying to make money by porting those games is not. It was the responsible thing to do for the shareholders. I mean if you had a WiiU and think everything is about you then maybe you see it as shitty towards you, but the games sold well and the new players enjoyed them.
 
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Methos#1975

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How the hell do Nintendo do it? Shit hardware and barely any software yet they manage sales numbers that are unheard of! 28m in one year is insane. I guess Japan plays a huge part.
Because you are wrong. Personally I and many others think Nintendo and it's partners such as Capcom are knocking it out the park with the awesome games the Switch has given us so far. They by far have the best exclusives this year.
 
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zedinen

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NSW is lagging behind NDS, despite pandemic-fueled growth (which won't last forever)

Year 4
NDS 96.22
NSW 84.59

Year 5
NDS 125.13
NSW 110.0 (Nintendo's Forecast)

Year 6
NDS 144.59

Year 7
NDS 151.06

Year 8
NDS 153.67

Year 9
NDS 153.98

Year 10
NDS 154.02
 

KAL2006

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I think there is still plenty of life with the Switch. It hasn't even had a price drop yet. Once it gets a price drop it will have another sales surge.

I expect the following

November 2022 - Limited time sale for Switch OLED, Vanilla and Lite
March 2023 - Switch Lite, Vanilla and OLED permanent price drop
June 2024 - Switch 2 announced
October 2024 - Switch 2 released

I expect power level of Switch 2 to match Steam Deck thanks to DLSS (although by then there will be a Steam Deck successor already that's more powerful than Switch 2).

You maybe thinking what else can Nintendo release for another 3 years. I expect Metroid Prime 4, BotW2, another Pokémon Gen, more ports (Yoshi's Wooly World, Wind Waker, Twilight Princess, Prime Trilogy), new IP, Mario Kart + Nintendo Allstars (Mario Kart but with other Nintendo IP, characters, weapons and stages don't just pull from Mario). Another fitness game due to success of Ring Fit and etc. Another mainline 3D Mario (Oddyssey 2?) And 2D Mario.
 
Aug 17, 2014
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No upgrade until 2024? I love my switch but this is terrible if true... The hardware is already ancient
 
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Thankfully I won't be one of those five million dolts suckered in a bare-minimum-effort upgrade 😆

Also, 2024? Guess people will let badly-fogged nostalgia goggles cloud their judgement so Nintendo can get away with vastly outdated technology for almost an entire decade. Honestly can see why Sony are watching OLED sales; if Nintendo can get away with cheapening technological innovation and still sell a boatload, why can't Sony? Hell, why can't Microsoft?

Why should the other platform holders even try when the market rewards technological mediocrity throwing money at Nintendo and never holding them accountable for technological stagnation?
 
Jan 29, 2019
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This is such a bad use of statistics. While I will not say it's impossible that the switch replaces the PS2 as the top selling console in history, this analyst just projected sales to the future, the machine could very well hit a hard ceiling before then, just like the Wii did.

Another scenario would be them releasing a "pro" switch or a BC switch 2 then boosting hardware sales again... But that would be like counting PS5 sales with the PS4 (which arguably makes sense).
 

Mozza

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Yeah it's total nonsense. Switch has no shortage of great games to play from new to old.
What they mean is, the Switch has no games they do not personally like, games that even if they were available on the console, they would still not play, and buy them on the Xbox or Playstation. ;)
 

Mozza

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Thankfully I won't be one of those five million dolts suckered in a bare-minimum-effort upgrade 😆

Also, 2024? Guess people will let badly-fogged nostalgia goggles cloud their judgement so Nintendo can get away with vastly outdated technology for almost an entire decade. Honestly can see why Sony are watching OLED sales; if Nintendo can get away with cheapening technological innovation and still sell a boatload, why can't Sony? Hell, why can't Microsoft?

Why should the other platform holders even try when the market rewards technological mediocrity throwing money at Nintendo and never holding them accountable for technological stagnation?
The market does not reward mediocrity as you put it, the wider mass market just buys things they like, and are simply not obsessed with graphics and frame rates, and do not spend most of their lives playing video games, surley can't be that difficult to work out, but as usual the core internet minorities, thinking they are the majority. ';)
 
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Evilms

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Or you hope it does not sell those numbers. ;)
I have my doubts, you're forgetting that the switch is just half way through and I can tell you that it will have a hard time keeping this sales momentum for the next 5-6 years.

And if the PS2 if managed to reach that figure back in the day it's because it lasted over a decade taking advantage of emerging markets like brazil, third world with a lower price point, the switch's best years are behind it.
 
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Hugare

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This is true the base model wouldn't have been able to handle VR well at all the spec bump put it right with the GTX 970 level requirement at the time

4k/hdr on the PS4 Pro was always a marketing gimmick people who actually bought into that basically got scammed checkerboarding doesn't even come close to actual 4K
The Pro got some 1800p CB games that got pretty close to 4k in terms of image quality, like GoT, Death Stranding, GOW and Spiderman.

They all look great on the PS5. I honestly cant notice much difference between Rift Apart Performance and Quality mode, for example.

Sony studios AA sollution is always awesome

But yeah, there are some pretty low res games. TLOU 2 was 1440p and it was pretty blurry.

Wanted a 1800p update for the PS5 so bad ...
 
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UltimaKilo

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I still think it's too early to predict life-cycle sales until at least a year from now. We need more data. However, it is on pace to surpass the PS4 in sales.
 

Mozza

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I have my doubts, you're forgetting that the switch is just half way through and I can tell you that it will have a hard time keeping this sales momentum for the next 5-6 years.

And if the PS2 if managed to reach that figure back in the day it's because it lasted over a decade taking advantage of emerging markets like brazil, third world with a lower price point, the switch's best years are behind it.
Without a doubt it's a tough ask, the Ps2 pretty much had the market to itself and was a great DVD player at a very affordable price, but I still think the Switch has a lot of momentum, so could still get very close.
 

Mozza

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Great thread for a link to one of the all time classic NeoGaf threads, and when this was thread./topic was created, who would have fought that we would be discussing if the Switch could reach DS or Ps2 numbers, insane really. ;)

 

Evilms

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Without a doubt it's a tough ask, the Ps2 pretty much had the market to itself and was a great DVD player at a very affordable price, but I still think the Switch has a lot of momentum, so could still get very close.
Getting close is feasible, especially if the Switch 2 is not due until 2024, but overtaking the PS2 is another story, even the much cheaper Nintendo DS didn't make it.
 
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The market does not reward mediocrity as you put it, the wider mass market just buys things they like, and are simply not obsessed with graphics and frame rates, and do not spend most of their lives playing video games, surley can't be that difficult to work out, but as usual the core internet minorities, thinking they are the majority. ';)
It's the same thing; the mass market's rewarded technological competency and innovation before; PC-Engine in Japan, Genesis in the West, SNES globally, PS1, PS2, the Wii etc. and many of those systems were ALSO heavy on pushing graphics and framerate for their time so that doesn't fly as an excuse when it comes to the Switch.

You don't have to be "obsessed" with those things in order to put some value on them, and the mass market has done that in the past. I think hardcore/core gamers are to blame here; the mass market generally follows where the hardcore/core go and those types were very hyped for the Switch when it was revealed, myself included. But I couldn't picture at the time what impact that could have in terms of technological innovation in gaming space and what complacency that could lead to if it were heavily rewarded, sadly we're now in that timeline when it comes to Nintendo.

And potentially, that could be something Sony and Microsoft take inspiration from as well, if they are looking at Switch's market performance and go "HA! Why are we spending hundreds of billions on R&D and cutting-edge tech, when Nintendo's over here with outdated tech and outselling us!?". And knowing how hypocritical some people are, they will crucify Sony and Microsoft (especially Microsoft) for doing that, meanwhile give Nintendo a pass because of nostalgia goggles and, arguably, cult-like mentality.
 
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Marty-McFly

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I have my doubts, you're forgetting that the switch is just half way through and I can tell you that it will have a hard time keeping this sales momentum for the next 5-6 years.

And if the PS2 if managed to reach that figure back in the day it's because it lasted over a decade taking advantage of emerging markets like brazil, third world with a lower price point, the switch's best years are behind it.
The gaming market is much larger now in general. Saying Switch's best years are behind it is premature given that it was only recently announced it had the best year in console history and is tracking ahead of that year in Q1.

People citing a Covid bump are also not factoring that this bump may be sustained for the foreseeable future as not only is the world not nearly back to normal, or will be for some time, but it has likely had a long term impact on gaming habits bringing new gamer's into the fold.

There is also the ongoing Switch Pro rumors, which would all but cement it surpassing every platform in history. At the very least, we will see multiple revisions as we are already on our third with OLED. Not having a single pricedrop while nearing the 100 milllion mark is also very telling.
 
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Mozza

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It's the same thing; the mass market's rewarded technological competency and innovation before; PC-Engine in Japan, Genesis in the West, SNES globally, PS1, PS2, the Wii etc. and many of those systems were ALSO heavy on pushing graphics and framerate for their time so that doesn't fly as an excuse when it comes to the Switch.

You don't have to be "obsessed" with those things in order to put some value on them, and the mass market has done that in the past. I think hardcore/core gamers are to blame here; the mass market generally follows where the hardcore/core go and those types were very hyped for the Switch when it was revealed, myself included. But I couldn't picture at the time what impact that could have in terms of technological innovation in gaming space and what complacency that could lead to if it were heavily rewarded, sadly we're now in that timeline when it comes to Nintendo.

And potentially, that could be something Sony and Microsoft take inspiration from as well, if they are looking at Switch's market performance and go "HA! Why are we spending hundreds of billions on R&D and cutting-edge tech, when Nintendo's over here with outdated tech and outselling us!?". And knowing how hypocritical some people are, they will crucify Sony and Microsoft (especially Microsoft) for doing that, meanwhile give Nintendo a pass because of nostalgia goggles and, arguably, cult-like mentality.
Not the same thing at all, but I doubt I would change anyone's mind on here or any other forum, basically your own want's and needs applied to everyone else, then when the wider market does no care for any of this they are stupid or easily pleased. ;)
 
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MrA

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Getting close is feasible, especially if the Switch 2 is not due until 2024, but overtaking the PS2 is another story, even the much cheaper Nintendo DS didn't make it.
the ds didn't because its sales completely collapsed, ps4's sales seem to have also collapsed,
if the sales collapse at some point in the next 2 years in won't take the ps2, if they don't I think it will.
I think a long tale could be achieved if nintendo made an extremely cheap switch pocket or something after the switch 2 to give it a few more years on shelves as an impulse item.
 

leo-j

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Be careful, Nintendo consoles go from dramatically high sales to low sales rather quickly. Wii dropped dramatically as it was approaching 100M. Ds also dropped dramatically past 140 million. I totally suspect switch has a combo of the DS and Wii people are buying switch but I do not expect it to be soaring past 110 million as it’s selling right now. I’m expecting a drop once it gets through 100 million.
 

noshten

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This is what I imagine someone looks like whenever they say Switch has no games
Certainly it's lacking those gorgeous AAA games with their innovative mtxgame play and next level gamblingenemy AI but it has plenty of appealing titles for plebs like us that are too poor to afford a high end PSX system with $70 games
 
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TheBomb

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This is what I imagine someone looks like whenever they say Switch has no games
Certainly it's lacking those gorgeous AAA games with their innovative mtxgame play and next level gamblingenemy AI but it has plenty of appealing titles for plebs like us that are too poor to afford a high end PSX system with $70 games
tyler perry madea GIF
 

Marty-McFly

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Be careful, Nintendo consoles go from dramatically high sales to low sales rather quickly. Wii dropped dramatically as it was approaching 100M. Ds also dropped dramatically past 140 million. I totally suspect switch has a combo of the DS and Wii people are buying switch but I do not expect it to be soaring past 110 million as it’s selling right now. I’m expecting a drop once it gets through 100 million.
All consoles drop dramatically including Sony and MS consoles, but if I see longevity for any of them, it's Switch. It's not relying on power for third party support, as third party support on the console is trivial enough.

Nintendo's games will look good for a long time due to their artstyle and they are now pumping all of their resources into one platform. Looking at the best selling Switch games, they have several 20-30 million selling games already and are dominating the software charts with several evergreens that stay in the top 10 every month.

It doesn't even seem like first party development has hit its peak year in terms of the software development cycle with many of their biggest titles still to come.
 
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Marty-McFly

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Be careful, Nintendo consoles go from dramatically high sales to low sales rather quickly. Wii dropped dramatically as it was approaching 100M. Ds also dropped dramatically past 140 million. I totally suspect switch has a combo of the DS and Wii people are buying switch but I do not expect it to be soaring past 110 million as it’s selling right now. I’m expecting a drop once it gets through 100 million.
The data we have shows the exact opposite. Looking at the tail end of the graph, Switch is arc'ing upwards (selling faster) more so than any of the best selling consoles of all time at this stage in its lifecycle.




As stated before this is a little old, but at this point the Switch is closing in on 100 million and only further separating itself from the pack
 
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tr1p1ex

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Be careful, Nintendo consoles go from dramatically high sales to low sales rather quickly. Wii dropped dramatically as it was approaching 100M. Ds also dropped dramatically past 140 million. I totally suspect switch has a combo of the DS and Wii people are buying switch but I do not expect it to be soaring past 110 million as it’s selling right now. I’m expecting a drop once it gets through 100 million.
DS dropped after 3ds release. Pretty much every console's sales drop off a cliff after the next one comes out. PS2 is the glaring exception.

Wii sales dropped off quite a bit in 2011. And then Wii U was announced and released the next year which definitely killed it off. But it was a little more faddish because of WiiSports push into mainstream.


Switch will get to 100 million this year and the $350 OLED model is $350 ie no price drop but a price increase. Nintendo says 25 million sales this fiscal year which means 110 million by next March if they are correct. Usually their estimates are conservative but they are estimates and once in awhile they are wrong. Pandemic going away is surely an xfactor. Acceptance of the $350 OLED is another xfactor. And what games are coming in 2022 will also determine sales.

But I probably mentioned this before in this thread or another - Nintendo has room to drop the price and bundle games - inflation not withstanding.

btw PS2 had 1/3 of its sales after the PS3 was released if internets is correct. I think it was a combination of Sony getting the price way down thru costs cuts including slimmed down new skus and it having a DVD player plus Ps3 being $600 couldn't have hurt.
 
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StateofMajora

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Even in comparison to other Nintendo systems, the software is lacking. A lot of the good stuff isnt even new but ports of wii u games and at full price too but lets just gloss over Nintendo's shitty decisions. Imagine the backlash if microsoft or Sony tried to pull even half the shit they do. Imo, the switch is one of Nintendo's worst systems. Even the wii had more redeeming qualities.
It is true that there are a lot of ports. If you have a ps4, and have had a Wii U, that really limits what you can get out of the switch. Not to mention, some of the Wii U ports are inferior ; at least half.

In terms of unique software, it is very lacking compared to Wii and prior consoles. But it's had a few knockouts as well, and in particular i'm looking forward to No more heroes 3 next month which i've been waiting for a long time! At the same time, it hasn't been so dry that it's starving, and if you only have a switch the value proposition is huge. Bigger than it was for Wii U in terms of third party support by a huge margin. Particularly, even though I have a PC I really enjoyed the Witcher 3 port that switch got ; it's just hugely impressive for the machine and it's the only complete physical release among all the consoles.
 
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Captain Toad

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How the hell do Nintendo do it? Shit hardware and barely any software yet they manage sales numbers that are unheard of! 28m in one year is insane. I guess Japan plays a huge part.
Nintendo puts out more high quality first-party software than anyone.
 
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Nintendo puts out more high quality first-party software than anyone.

Nintendo puts out the same software every gen. A mario kart game, a smash bros game, a few pokemon games and a couple zelda and mario games. Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, animal crossing and Luigis mansion! Yay
 
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