Support NeoGAF

[Oberstein]

Oh! A Switch 2 thread...

 

[BlackTron]

Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

I doubt Nintendo thinks they can make more money by becoming platform-agnostic and I suspect that they are correct.

Nintendo does not only profit from first party game sales. They make money on hardware too. And then they make money on the third party games as well sold within their ecosystem, games they didn't even have to work on.

Once Switch took off, it was like a race to publish more games on the system. Old games, new games, last gen ports, anything a publisher could throw at it, even DOOM. Nintendo makes money on all of that, they don't just count how many copies of Mario and Zelda. Those games lead the charge to build a platform that in turn generates cash on autopilot.

Also, Steam Deck is completely meaningless to Nintendo's business.

 

[Robb]

Nintendo does not only profit from first party game sales. They make money on hardware too. And then they make money on the third party games as well sold within their ecosystem, games they didn't even have to work on.

Yeah, not to mention their ‘new’ online subscription service they started with Switch. That must be generating a lot of money as well, despite being relatively cheap.

 

[Umbasaborne]

For sure. It will launch with zelda.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

God I hope they bring out something. It’s been 6 years and I e gotten to the point where I’m no longer buying software for it outside of like a new Zelda or Mario or some major big first-party game. Even like a New 3DS-like upgrade I would take. Like, c’mon Nintendo, it’s time for something new.

 

[Woopah]

With what? No Mario Kart 9, no new Splatoon, or Xenoblade, or FE, Bayo, AC, even the casual multiplayer team is accounted for with Switch Sports.

With Zelda TotK, Pikmin 4, and Metroid Prime Remake/4 (and whatever else is unannounced yet)

There are also several other devs that could have games ready for 2023. The big one being EPD8, the 3D Mario (and also possibly the new Donkey Kong team). But there are others such as:

• Good Feel - worked on various 2D platformers, not released anything since Yoshi's Crafted World in 2019
• Grezzo - Worked on Zelda remakes and Ever Oasis, currently making a 3D action game and haven't released anything since Link's Awakening in 2019
• Bandai Namco Studios - There's a team there that works on Nintendo collaborations. They last released New Pokemon Snap in 2020 and are working next on an action game remake / remaster

Then there's always some surprise collaborations that no one was expecting. We probably know less than half of Nintendo's 2023 games currently.

Nah.

If they were going to launch a Switch 2 they would have done so in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.
They usually announce their new console about a year before releasing it, and there hasn't been anything but Nintendo execs claiming "there's still so much life left on the platform". There hasn't been anything in Nintendo's investor reports suggesting there's new hardware, either.

Takashi Mochisuki probably did break the story about a planned Switch 2 back in 2019 (and then again in 2020), but then covid came and the lockdowns printed so much money to Nintendo that they thought why give a shit and instead just made demanding games available through streaming.


It looks like making new hardware is becoming an inconvenience to Nintendo, and they see it as something that comes in the way of selling software.
I think they'll be the first ones to leave the hardware race and become a software company.

Sure, there were some leaks about a "nvn2" SoC early this year, supposedly with an Ampere GPU and DLSS, but nothing came out of it. Perhaps Nvidia was counting on the ARM acquisition to avoid royalties or something, and they're the ones who canceled the console. Who knows..


Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

So a few points here:

1. nvn2 was for an SoC that was nearing completion. Its not something that was cancelled, its something that will be used in a product coming soon.
2. Mochisuki's 2019 article wasn't referring to a Switch 2, but the new standard Switch that launched that Summer. The 2020 article was indeed referring to a future Switch model, but what he didn't realise is that the OLED model and the DLSS model were not one and the same
3. Hardware sales accounted for 41.7% of Nintnedo' revenue in the last 6 months. They definutely don't see that as an "inconvenience"

It will come out in 2023 and cost $349.99. You can quote me on that.

if they are already selling the OLED at $349.99, I can't see the next model being any lower than $399.99

Who said they need to aim at PS4 levels? You are making things up in your head. Nintendo makes hardware that works for their 1st party developers first and then maybe they take into consideration the needs of third party devs.

Most devs I've heard said Switch's biggest bottleneck for porting is Ram and especially memory bandwidth.

It won't take much for a Switch 2 to be more developer friendly.

At some point or another third party devs will stop making games for PS4/XB1 and start making only current gen games. Nintendo will want to keep improving third party support, and to do that they will eventually need a system that can get PS5 / XB Series ports. DLSS will help them a lot here.

This is not true. The switch was announced in October 2016, then launched March 2017. Nintendo likely won’t want to discourage hardware sales by having a long gap between announcing and releasing.

While the Switch itself was announced October 2016, Nintendo was referring to the NX long before that.

I honestly don't understand why people love the Switch so much. Besides 3 or 4 games, there's nothing really interesting about the console.

It has a large number of popular games, a steady stream of small/medium releases and gives you options as to where and how you play them. That's it essentially.

 

[RoadHazard]

It could or it could not. I wouldn't buy a Switch right now, it's incredibly underpowered at this point. Only worth it if you NEED TO play the next Zelda or whatever (which I do need to...).

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

BoTW2 + Switch 2 pack.

At this point it’s more likely it’ll get a special limited designed Switch OLED like Splatoon 3 got. And not bundled with the game.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

There are also several other devs that could have games ready for 2023. The big one being EPD8, the 3D Mario (and also possibly the new Donkey Kong team). But there are others such as:

• Good Feel - worked on various 2D platformers, not released anything since Yoshi's Crafted World in 2019
• Grezzo - Worked on Zelda remakes and Ever Oasis, currently making a 3D action game and haven't released anything since Link's Awakening in 2019
• Bandai Namco Studios - There's a team there that works on Nintendo collaborations. They last released New Pokemon Snap in 2020 and are working next on an action game remake / remaster

Then there's always some surprise collaborations that no one was expecting. We probably know less than half of Nintendo's 2023 games currently.

Pokémon Snap was April 2021, so their next project whatever that might be is still a ways off.

I’ve mentioned here before, but I think Nintendo clearly punted on holiday 2022 in the same way they punted on holiday 2016, where they released basically nothing. There are since clear parallels there, the only difference is Switch is popular and Wii U was not. But output-wise, it’s a repeat of holiday 2016.

The last first-party release of 2022 was Splatoon 3, in September. Everything else this holiday is third-party, or Pokemon which is Game Freak/ TPC. So to me it’s as clear an indication as any that their big teams are gearing up for something big next year, beyond just a huge new title like TotK. There has to be more, and I agree that we haven’t seen most of their lineup for the next 12 months yet.

Outside of Fire Emblem in a few weeks, their Q1 lineup is also basically non-existent, too. Bayonetta Origins in March? Another non-Nintendo developed title.

 

[kiphalfton]

No

And people need to stop asking.

Nintendo could (and very likely will) ride the switch out for years, and continue having strong sales numbers.

 

[Chukhopops]

If there was a new Switch coming out at the same time as TOTK (in 6 months) it would have leaked already through accessories or dev kit or any other source.

It ain’t happening.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

No

And people need to stop asking.

Nintendo could (and very likely will) ride the switch out for years, and continue having strong sales numbers.

Switch peaked 2 years ago and is declining more every year, and next year would be even more. Without new hardware. They know how the platform business works, I’m sure the next new thing is getting somewhat close to coming to market. 2024 at the absolute latest.

 

[kiphalfton]

Switch peaked 2 years ago and is declining more every year, and next year would be even more. Without new hardware. They know how the platform business works, I’m sure the next new thing is getting somewhat close to coming to market. 2024 at the absolute latest.

It will just require "more" effort on their behalf, and not relying on padding out their library with ported games.

Depends which is more expensive.

 

[Woopah]

Pokémon Snap was April 2021, so their next project whatever that might be is still a ways off.

I’ve mentioned here before, but I think Nintendo clearly punted on holiday 2022 in the same way they punted on holiday 2016, where they released basically nothing. There are since clear parallels there, the only difference is Switch is popular and Wii U was not. But output-wise, it’s a repeat of holiday 2016.

The last first-party release of 2022 was Splatoon 3, in September. Everything else this holiday is third-party, or Pokemon which is Game Freak/ TPC. So to me it’s as clear an indication as any that their big teams are gearing up for something big next year, beyond just a huge new title like TotK. There has to be more, and I agree that we haven’t seen most of their lineup for the next 12 months yet.

Outside of Fire Emblem in a few weeks, their Q1 lineup is also basically non-existent, too. Bayonetta Origins in March? Another non-Nintendo developed title.

Yes you're right about Snap, it was announced in 2020 not released then

I don't think your analysis of Nintendo's line up works, because they don't plan their releases around which developers they do or do not own. They are a publisher who collaborates with a lot of external developers for their first party output, and that's perfectly normal for them.

Splatoon 3 in September, Bayonetta 3 in October and Pokémon Violet/Scarlet in November are all first party Nintendo releases, as Nintendo published all of them. It follows their general pattern of releasing one game per month (on average).

Q1 is the same. They have FE Engage in January, Kirby Return to Dreamland Deluxe in February and Bayonetta Origins in March. Not as strong as some other Q1s, but its a constant stream of titles.

Basically if you only look at games by Nintnedo-ownded developers then you are ignoring half of Nintendo's output, and it looks like they punt on almost every holiday. If you had asked Nintendo "what's your biggest holiday release for 2019" they would have said Pokémon Sword/Shield, not Ring Fit Adventure. If you had asked them about holiday 2018 they would have said Smash Bros. Ultimate, not Super Mario Party.

 

[IDKFA]

Doubtful. What's most likely to happen is the Switch successor will be announced in around October 2023 and release world wide in March 2024.

 

[Woopah]

It will just require "more" effort on their behalf, and not relying on padding out their library with ported games.

Depends which is more expensive.

What ported games did they pad the library with this year?

They'll always be some ports/remasters in Nintendo's line-up, but they are a very very small part of that line-up. They are definitely aren't important enough to impact Nintendo's decision on when to release new hardware.

 

[NightmareFarm]

People say this every year...

 

[playsaves3]

Switch 2 is not coming in 2023 IMO. Still selling like hot cakes. I think announcement in March 2024, release November 2024.

I’d buy the Oled now. It’s the best Switch model by a mile and feels like a premium product in hand. You’d be able to sell it for £100+ when the time comes to upgrade anyway. Play some Splatoon 3/Tears of the Kingdom and chill.

I’m expecting late 2024 at this point as well I initially thought early 2024 but that’s looking unlikely even early 2025 wouldn’t completely shock me

 

[playsaves3]

It wouldn't be a generational leap then, it must be MORE powerful than the base PS4 at least.

I was hoping for ps4 pro level handheld and series s level or slightly below docked base ps4 would be absolutely pathetic especially if this is gonna be 350-400

 

[playsaves3]

Thing is, this generation games will forever be impacted by last gen because of the Xbox Series S.
So, Nintendo making a ps4 level hybrid console makes the most sense. They don't need to go any higher. They'll get every 3rd party multiplatform game without much difference between current gen consoles. Sure, you won't get 4k/30fps or 1080p/60 fps but it'll look good enough.

Not if they will be charging 350+ for it. That device would have to be sub 300 to not be an absolute rip off

 

[playsaves3]

I'm going to just answer this part of your question instead: If you're interested in buying a Switch OLED, just buy it. Don't let a potential Switch successor stop you. There have been no good indications that new hardware is going to be releasing next year, and we're also in the new era of consoles, where hardware shortages are no longer temporary and are the new norm. There's a very good chance that you won't be able to buy the Switch 2 for several years after it has come out, especially if its popularity is anything like the original Switch.

So I suggest to get it. Worst case you can sell the Switch OLED used with like a 50$ - 100$ loss if the new one is BC.

I wouldn’t buy an oled unless it’s a special edition model

 

[NahaNago]

THe switch 2 probably won't release until at least 2024 maybe even early 2025. Whether to buy or not I have no idea.

 

[LordOfChaos]

The platform is struggling on a lot of simple titles these days. I personally wouldn't buy it now until a Pro/2.

 

[Deputy Moonman]

I really wish people would make straight forward polls with yes or no and then explain choice below. Personally, I think a Switch or a completely new nintendo console will be announced next year. Though it would likely be years from release.

 

[freefornow]

A new successor needs to come with ........ and full BC right out of the gate.

Nintendo will tie any BC to their Online subscription model. The only way that you will get compatability with previous switch.

 

[Celcius]

People keep saying "wait, a switch Pro is coming! No, that was wrong but Switch 2 is right around the corner!"
OP, I don't think anything new is coming out in 2023. Just buy what you want now.

 

[MatrixReloaded101]

( I have an original Switch from 2017 that I game on mostly on TV but also in handheld mode when travelling)

Don't buy the Oled its wouldn't be worth it especially since you game mostly on the TV

Save the money for when the new switch eventually releases

 

[Crayon]

I honestly don't understand why people love the Switch so much. Besides 3 or 4 games, there's nothing really interesting about the console.

I've had since day 1 and I kind of hate it but botw alone was worth it. I've never ever been willing to have a conse for one game. It has several great games but none really rise to that gotta haveit level for me. But botw is so far out ahead of other designs while having tooooons of room for improvement that I would go through the cost and inconvenience.

Anyway yeah rare instance for me of an extraordinary game making a console worth it. It happens.

 

[Trilobit]

I honestly don't understand why people love the Switch so much. Besides 3 or 4 games, there's nothing really interesting about the console.

It's a great party console. I can easily take it with me plus 4 joycons and have a blast with different multiplayer games. Because of its ease of use it's simple to get newbies in on the fun.

Now that I have a PS5 it's gathering dust until BotW 2, but before that I had so many great experiences with for example BotW, Animal Crossing and some indie games like The Long Dark that were cozy to play on portable under a blanket on the couch.

Despite its technical shortcomings it's a blast and offers something I can't get elsewhere.

 

[The Stig]

not happening

 

[HofT]

Not if they will be charging 350+ for it. That device would have to be sub 300 to not be an absolute rip off

Well, it'll be a hybrid console so that's the value. Getting a portable ps4 is pretty enticing since it'll be able to get current gen multiplatform games. Like a portable GTA6.

 

[T4keD0wN]

Didnt the nintendo president say switch is in the middle of its life cycle just 10 months ago?

 

[Robb]

Didnt the nintendo president say switch is in the middle of its life cycle just 10 months ago?

That doesn’t really tell us much about their plans for the next system though. Switch will likely still be alive for years after the next system is out.

 

[Murdoch]

If you're interested in a Nintendo switch is suggest just buying one and looking after it. No one can predict when its successor is coming out so you could be waiting for a helluva long time.

Either plop, or get off the potty

 

[UnNamed]

Switch sold 23M consoles during 2021-2022 fiscal year

IR Information : Sales Data - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units

www.nintendo.co.jp

Now they are at 114M (november 2002), so they will probably easely sell pass 10M consoles during 2022-2023, probably 15/16M by the end of the fiscal year (march 2023). It's still a huge amount of consoles. I dont' think they have plans to replace Switch in 2023 as long as they sell all these units. End 2023/ early 2024 is a good window.

 

[01011001]

it could launch in march for all we know. Nintendo is impossible to predict

 

[Kataploom]

Doubtful. What's most likely to happen is the Switch successor will be announced in around October 2023 and release world wide in March 2024.

That makes no sense since they're be sabotaging their holidays sales, when they do like 40% of whole FY revenue, they did it with the Switch because Wii U was so dead they didn't even hid it anymore, if they're gonna release a new platform, they'd have to announce it and release it before December

 

[Zannegan]

That makes no sense since they're be sabotaging their holidays sales, when they do like 40% of whole FY revenue, they did it with the Switch because Wii U was so dead they didn't even hid it anymore, if they're gonna release a new platform, they'd have to announce it and release it before December

Good point. So more of a January/June schedule? Or maybe March/October? I could see it.

I also like the idea of them launching the successor in time for TotK, though I wouldn't bet on any of the above because Nintendo gonna Nintendo.

The reason I'm most hesitant to bet on early 2023 at this point is that we haven't seen any manufacturer leaks, and the thing would have to be in full production to come out in early spring. We always have some sort of leak from Foxconn or wherever.

 

[SF Kosmo]

I really do think it's coming sooner than later, they just didn't want to cannibalize their holiday sales by announcing in Q4.

There could also be logistical supply chain issues at work, you know Covid has been hitting chinese manufacturing very hard lately, so they might just be making sure they can get inventory up before knifing their still-decent-selling current console.

Digital Foundry made some pretty good arguments that the trailer footage for the new Zelda can't be running on Switch hardware.

 

[Woopah]

I really do think it's coming sooner than later, they just didn't want to cannibalize their holiday sales by announcing in Q4.

There could also be logistical supply chain issues at work, you know Covid has been hitting chinese manufacturing very hard lately, so they might just be making sure they can get inventory up before knifing their still-decent-selling current console.

Digital Foundry made some pretty good arguments that the trailer footage for the new Zelda can't be running on Switch hardware.

Nintendo won't be showing footage from unannounced hardware. They'll wait until the new model is announced before showing games running on it.

 

[Kataploom]

Good point. So more of a January/June schedule? Or maybe March/October? I could see it.

I also like the idea of them launching the successor in time for TotK, though I wouldn't bet on any of the above because Nintendo gonna Nintendo.

The reason I'm most hesitant to bet on early 2023 at this point is that we haven't seen any manufacturer leaks, and the thing would have to be in full production to come out in early spring. We always have some sort of leak from Foxconn or wherever.

Well, TOTK is May, next FY, that and that Kamiya said something like "See you next generation" when talking about next Bayonetta game, which we can say they talked about next mainline or the one coming in March... There's enough to speculate around those H1 lol

 

[IDKFA]

That makes no sense since they're be sabotaging their holidays sales, when they do like 40% of whole FY revenue, they did it with the Switch because Wii U was so dead they didn't even hid it anymore, if they're gonna release a new platform, they'd have to announce it and release it before December

Furry muff, but I still don't think it'll be out next year.

September 2024 it is then.

 

[Marvel14]

The last minute Switch plus physical game deals for less than MRRP has me seriously wondering if this is the Switch 1's last big Christmas hurrah before the successor console comes out in the same calendar year as the new Zelda.

Once Nintendo starts discounting successful hardware in earnest, its a sure sign that a successor is in sight. We probably won't hear about it until Jan/Feb of 2023 at the earliest. It might launch with Zelda or in time for next Christmas or even Spring 2024 but who knows? I would buy an OLED if I was certain Switch 2 was coming in 2024 at the earliest.

So should I buy an OLED early in the New Year when it might be further discounted before Switch 2 is announced? Am I right that discounts are substantive evidence of Nintendo nextgen coming in 2023?

Advise me GAF. Poll assumes Switch 2 comes out in 2024.

( I have an original Switch from 2017 that I game on mostly on TV but also in handheld mode when travelling)

Thought I would update this thread with the case for and against a next gen Switch in 2023:

CASE FOR:
A. 7 Years between generations is unprecedented for Nintendo.

B. a second zelda on a current gen console has a good chance of being a crossgen title and they wouldn't wait a year to drop it on new hardware (Twilight Princess, BOTW - if.you count windwaker as the first for Wii U) Majora's Mask seem to be the exception.

C. good evidence that a midgen power refresh was planned. Could mean that suitable silicon is already mass produced and ready to go tho possibly a bit underpowered.

D. OLED below MRRP bundles appeared this holiday, confirming Switch is on the declining part of its sales curve.

E. Switch sales have indeed plateaued. If Nintendo wait too long, Switch players will switch to other consoles and Nintendo will have to win them back all over again.

F. Nintendo is unpredictable. If the consensus is that it will come in 2024, Nintendo will release it in 2023.

G. Some noise from Nvidia and others that something is being worked on.

CASE AGAINST:
A. The unprecedent time delay is explained by the pandemic. Assume this shaved 1 year off the Switch successor's development time (esp.with chip supply chain issues) then this is really year 5 for the Switch successor's development and 2024 is the right time.

B. TotK was meant to come out 2 years earlier on the same BOTw engine. Its Switch's Majora's Mask to BOTW's Ocarina of Time. Not a crossgen title.

C. A cancelled midgen refresh could also mean they had to start again and rethink the whole console concept as there was no incremental step to build from and the next gen Switch development is not as far along as it would have been otherwise.

D.Little to no noise about silicon production or devkits so far. Not enough smoke for an imminent fire.

E. Switch is soo successful and Nintendo usually cocks up the successor to a successful console ( Wii U and Gamecube). They're nervous about the Switch successor and will take their sweet time to get it right.

F. Sales are still pretty healthy...easily has one more year of high octane selling power with a further discount before a big sales decline.

 

[Edgelord79]

Would be nice to have a dedicated console from Nintendo. One in which hardware isn’t hampered by needing to be portable.

They can have a portable option too.

 

[01011001]

C. A cancelled midgen refresh could also mean they had to start again and rethink the whole console concept as there was no incremental step to build from and the next gen Switch development is not as far along as it would have been otherwise.

Nah, I bet the mid gen refresh would have used the same Mariko X1 as the revision, OLED and Lite models

I also bet that the OLED was originally the midngen refresh but they changed their minds about having a mid gen refresh during its development.

the original Switch already underclocked the first X1 model severely.
then they switched to the Mariko model aka X1+ and didn't change the clocks even tho the X1+ is more efficient and has an even higher rated max clock speed as the original X1

the X1+ (Mariko) could technically reach 649 GFLOPS, while the clock speeds the OLED uses makes it only reach 393 GFLOPS

meanwhile the X1+ allows for CPU clocks of up to 2.1 GHz the Switch clocks them only up to 1.02 GHz

the X1+ also allows for up to 8GB of LPDDR4X RAM while Nintendo only used 4GB LPDDR4
the memory bandwidth of the X1+ is also higher at 34.1 GB/s vs the original X1's 25.6 GB/s, which also goes unused in the way Nintendo chose to use the chip.

so my theory is, the OLED Switch was originally gonna have higher memory bandwidth, 8GB of LPDDR4X RAM and higher clock speeds, especially in docked mode.
but Nintendo chose to switch properties during the OLED Switch's development to just use the same RAM modules and same clock speeds to 1: save production cost and 2: not fragment the userbase

 

[RoboFu]

* looks at latest sales charts *

I doubt it. The switch is still selling too well.

 

[Gambit2483]

* looks at latest sales charts *

I doubt it. The switch is still selling too well.

- It's hardware sales have peaked and is now in the decline phase

- Why put (literally) their biggest SYSTEM SELLER trapped on it's dying 6 year old system? The market is nearing saturation. How many more systems after 6 years could TotK really push??

Nintendo would be better off doing another dual launch like they did with BOTW. They would please the whiney Switch owners that say it's too soon and also please the fed up gamers tired of this sub 1080p bullshit.

It's been 7 years. It's not "too soon". People are getting tired of Switch and want something new. Zelda TotK would be the perfect vehicle to deliver this new hardware with the least amount of risk of failure.

 

[Tams]

- It's hardware sales have peaked and is now in the decline phase

- Why put (literally) their biggest SYSTEM SELLER trapped on it's dying 6 year old system? The market is nearing saturation. How many more systems after 6 years could TotK really push??

Nintendo would be better off doing another dual launch like they did with BOTW. They would please the whiney Switch owners that say it's too soon and also please the fed up gamers tired of this sub 1080p bullshit.

It's been 7 years. It's not "too soon". People are getting tired of Switch and want something new. Zelda TotK would be the perfect vehicle to deliver this new hardware with the least amount of risk of failure.

Not happening.

And you think you aren't in a niche, but you are. Most Switch players are fine with the current level of performance and graphics. Would they like more? Probably most would, but if most of them really cared about that they'd be playing on something else.

 

[AngelMuffin]

Spring of ‘24 with Metroid Prime.

 

[Deerock71]