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[Marvel14]

The last minute Switch plus physical game deals for less than MRRP has me seriously wondering if this is the Switch 1's last big Christmas hurrah before the successor console comes out in the same calendar year as the new Zelda.

Once Nintendo starts discounting successful hardware in earnest, its a sure sign that a successor is in sight. We probably won't hear about it until Jan/Feb of 2023 at the earliest. It might launch with Zelda or in time for next Christmas or even Spring 2024 but who knows? I would buy an OLED if I was certain Switch 2 was coming in 2024 at the earliest.

So should I buy an OLED early in the New Year when it might be further discounted before Switch 2 is announced? Am I right that discounts are substantive evidence of Nintendo nextgen coming in 2023?

Advise me GAF. Poll assumes Switch 2 comes out in 2024.

( I have an original Switch from 2017 that I game on mostly on TV but also in handheld mode when travelling)

UPDATE- Thought I would update this thread with the case for and against a next gen Switch in 2023:

CASE FOR:
A. 7 Years between generations is unprecedented for Nintendo.

B. a second zelda on a current gen console has a good chance of being a crossgen title and they wouldn't wait a year to drop it on new hardware (Twilight Princess, BOTW - if.you count windwaker as the first for Wii U) Majora's Mask seem to be the exception.

C. good evidence that a midgen power refresh was planned. Could mean that suitable silicon is already mass produced and ready to go tho possibly a bit underpowered.

D. OLED below MRRP bundles appeared this holiday, confirming Switch is on the declining part of its sales curve.

E. Switch sales have indeed plateaued. If Nintendo wait too long, Switch players will switch to other consoles and Nintendo will have to win them back all over again.

F. Nintendo is unpredictable. If the consensus is that it will come in 2024, Nintendo will release it in 2023.

G. Some noise from Nvidia and others that something is being worked on.

CASE AGAINST:
A. The unprecedent time delay is explained by the pandemic. Assume this shaved 1 year off the Switch successor's development time (esp.with chip supply chain issues) then this is really year 5 for the Switch successor's development and 2024 is the right time.

B. TotK was meant to come out 2 years earlier on the same BOTw engine. Its Switch's Majora's Mask to BOTW's Ocarina of Time. Not a crossgen title.

C. A cancelled midgen refresh could also mean they had to start again and rethink the whole console concept as there was no incremental step to build from and the next gen Switch development is not as far along as it would have been otherwise.

D.Little to no noise about silicon production or devkits so far. Not enough smoke for an imminent fire.

E. Switch is soo successful and Nintendo usually cocks up the successor to a successful console ( Wii U and Gamecube). They're nervous about the Switch successor and will take their sweet time to get it right.

F.Sales are still pretty healthy...easily has one more year of high octane selling power with a further discount before a big sales decline.

 

[feynoob]

I wouldnt count on. But its nintendo. Anything can change.

 

[Imtjnotu]

Not happening

 

[Silver Wattle]

The title and poll questions are so different.

 

[MAtgS]

With what? No Mario Kart 9, no new Splatoon, or Xenoblade, or FE, Bayo, AC, even the casual multiplayer team is accounted for with Switch Sports.

 

[Jaybe]

Hope the successor is next year and backwards compatible.

 

[bender]

 

[Gambit2483]

With what? No Mario Kart 9, no new Splatoon, or Xenoblade, or FE, Bayo, AC, even the casual multiplayer team is accounted for with Switch Sports.

With Zelda TotK, Pikmin 4, and Metroid Prime Remake/4 (and whatever else is unannounced yet)

 

[graywolf323]

I don’t really expect it but I’m hoping it somehow comes with Tears of the Kingdom

 

[Mr Hyde]

A new successor needs to come with OLED screen, solid battery life, smaller bezels and full BC right out of the gate. Nintendo raised the expectation on a new Switch model so going backwards to anything less, would feel like a downgrade.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Nah.

If they were going to launch a Switch 2 they would have done so in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.
They usually announce their new console about a year before releasing it, and there hasn't been anything but Nintendo execs claiming "there's still so much life left on the platform". There hasn't been anything in Nintendo's investor reports suggesting there's new hardware, either.

Takashi Mochisuki probably did break the story about a planned Switch 2 back in 2019 (and then again in 2020), but then covid came and the lockdowns printed so much money to Nintendo that they thought why give a shit and instead just made demanding games available through streaming.


It looks like making new hardware is becoming an inconvenience to Nintendo, and they see it as something that comes in the way of selling software.
I think they'll be the first ones to leave the hardware race and become a software company.

Sure, there were some leaks about a "nvn2" SoC early this year, supposedly with an Ampere GPU and DLSS, but nothing came out of it. Perhaps Nvidia was counting on the ARM acquisition to avoid royalties or something, and they're the ones who canceled the console. Who knows..


Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

 

[TexMex]

I personally wouldn’t bet on it but also not unheard of to announce and launch hardware in the same year. Massively overdue too. I’d be there day one, but not holding my breath.

 

[Gambit2483]

I don’t really expect it but I’m hoping it somehow comes with Tears of the Kingdom

Nintendo could either pull a BOTW and tie one of their best selling games to the launch of the new console, ensuring it has insane hype and demand for years to come

Or they could pull a Skyward Sword and trap it on Switch where it loses its potential and momentum as Switch sales begin to die off

 

[Represent.]

Just going to be some PS4 level hardware, trash.

Call me when Nintendo makes real hardware again.

I sincerely miss the Gamecube days.

 

[HoofHearted]

 

[TLZ]

I thought you didn't have a Switch, but in the end you said you do have one. At this point you're better off waiting for the new one.

 

[Valedix]

no

 

[TLZ]

Nintendo could either pull a BOTW and tie one of their best selling games to the launch of the new console, ensuring it has insane hype and demand for years to come

Or they could pull a Skyward Sword and trap it on Switch where it loses its potential and momentum as Switch sales begin to die off

Or they could do a BOTW and release on both, like they did with Wii U and Switch. I bought the Wii U version and thoroughly enjoyed it for more than 300hrs.

 

[Danjin44]

 

[jigglet]

Nintendo timing: right date + 3 years

 

[Ozzie666]

I'm not sure which direction Nintendo is going to go or if they have even decided themselves. Brand new hardware or small incremental upgrades. Yes, both fracture their audience, but the best path for their transition could still be being argued behind the scenes. The dominance in Japan and sustained strong sales globally, makes me think 2024 for something meaningful. Maybe the New Switch, Switch Plus, Switch XL before an actual Switch 2. They could string this a long for several years. Let's be honest, how many people have bought multiple Switches? From what I know Nintendo is experiencing great profits and is more than holding their own against more modern hardware.

 

[HoofHearted]

 

[FStubbs]

With what? No Mario Kart 9, no new Splatoon, or Xenoblade, or FE, Bayo, AC, even the casual multiplayer team is accounted for with Switch Sports.

The only big franchise would be Mario itself. 2D or 3D. Actually it's been forever since we've gotten a new 2D Mario that wasn't Mario Maker.

 

[tkscz]

Not with the Switch still selling the way it is. Nintendo will milk it dry before replacing with a successor that may not do as well.

Besides, if they wait longer, better chance of them using the Tegra Thor (Lovelace based) over the Orin. Yeah I know wishful thinking...

 

[Bonfires Down]

I mean buy it if you want to buy it. Whether Switch 2 is out in 2023 or in 2024, it’s 6-12 months difference. Is that really a substantial difference?

For the record I haven’t seen any discounts in Sweden.

 

[Griffon]

Not 2023.

Simply because the current thermals you can have for a PS4 level handled aren't quite good enough for Nintendo yet.

One more year at least.

 

[Robb]

At this point I think 2023 is a bust.

My guess is announcement in late 2023 with a release in early 2024, similar to what they did with Switch (announcement October 2016, launch March 2017).

 

[Xellos]

The hardware exists (Nvidia leaks), and the timing is right for a new Switch in 2023. Nintendo is not going to launch new hardware without their core franchises (Zelda, Mario), and that opportunity is in 2023.

I'd expect at least a few years of cross-generation games similar to Xbox/PS.

 

[SegaSnatcher]

It will come out in 2023 and cost $349.99. You can quote me on that.

 

[SegaSnatcher]

Not 2023.

Simply because the current thermals you can have for a PS4 level handled aren't quite good enough for Nintendo yet.

One more year at least.

Who said they need to aim at PS4 levels? You are making things up in your head. Nintendo makes hardware that works for their 1st party developers first and then maybe they take into consideration the needs of third party devs.

Most devs I've heard said Switch's biggest bottleneck for porting is Ram and especially memory bandwidth.

It won't take much for a Switch 2 to be more developer friendly.

 

[nial]

PS4 level

It wouldn't be a generational leap then, it must be MORE powerful than the base PS4 at least.

 

[SegaSnatcher]

With what? No Mario Kart 9, no new Splatoon, or Xenoblade, or FE, Bayo, AC, even the casual multiplayer team is accounted for with Switch Sports.

So, are you just going to pretend The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is not releasing next year?

Nah.

If they were going to launch a Switch 2 they would have done so in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.
They usually announce their new console about a year before releasing it, and there hasn't been anything but Nintendo execs claiming "there's still so much life left on the platform". There hasn't been anything in Nintendo's investor reports suggesting there's new hardware, either.

Takashi Mochisuki probably did break the story about a planned Switch 2 back in 2019 (and then again in 2020), but then covid came and the lockdowns printed so much money to Nintendo that they thought why give a shit and instead just made demanding games available through streaming.


It looks like making new hardware is becoming an inconvenience to Nintendo, and they see it as something that comes in the way of selling software.
I think they'll be the first ones to leave the hardware race and become a software company.

Sure, there were some leaks about a "nvn2" SoC early this year, supposedly with an Ampere GPU and DLSS, but nothing came out of it. Perhaps Nvidia was counting on the ARM acquisition to avoid royalties or something, and they're the ones who canceled the console. Who knows..


Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

The Switch has sold 110+ Million units at this point and you think Nintendo is going to give up making hardware lol? Why are there so many people who lack common sense?

 

[BadBurger]

I don't know, Nintendo can be unpredictable with their hardware releases, but I am definitely gifting this Switch-related deal to someone this year:

 

[nial]

Just going to be some PS4 level hardware, trash.

Call me when Nintendo makes real hardware again.

I sincerely miss the Gamecube days.

thiiis, I dislike their hybrid model

 

[kubricks]

No you shouldn't. If you have a regular Switch the OLED is not worth it. Don't try to guess Nintendo hardware strategy as they just do their own things, be it sensible or not.
Leaks and speculation has been around for at least 2 years, they are all bullshit. Pay no attention to them.

If you have an itch to buy something new, go order a Steamdeck and call it the day. That's what I did and I can't be more happy.

 

[Boy bawang]

End of 2023 to end of 2024 is my bet. The machine is sufficiently advanced for specs to have been floating around since last March. At this point, I'd wait for the new model.

 

[Tams]

Nah.

If they were going to launch a Switch 2 they would have done so in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.
They usually announce their new console about a year before releasing it, and there hasn't been anything but Nintendo execs claiming "there's still so much life left on the platform". There hasn't been anything in Nintendo's investor reports suggesting there's new hardware, either.

Takashi Mochisuki probably did break the story about a planned Switch 2 back in 2019 (and then again in 2020), but then covid came and the lockdowns printed so much money to Nintendo that they thought why give a shit and instead just made demanding games available through streaming.


It looks like making new hardware is becoming an inconvenience to Nintendo, and they see it as something that comes in the way of selling software.
I think they'll be the first ones to leave the hardware race and become a software company.

Sure, there were some leaks about a "nvn2" SoC early this year, supposedly with an Ampere GPU and DLSS, but nothing came out of it. Perhaps Nvidia was counting on the ARM acquisition to avoid royalties or something, and they're the ones who canceled the console. Who knows..


Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

I was with you until the second half which is just silly and ignorant.

Nintendo are going to stay in the hardware business. There's no indication that they aren't. It makes them money (however little comparatively), and gives them more control over their IP (which means more money and being able to make the games completely how they want to).

 

[Tams]

2024 at the earliest.

I know it's wishful thinking, but with the maturation of USB, I think going an eGPU dock route would do them very well. USB 4 now has the speeds to not waste an eGPU's performance, all over one cable along with power and other data. And with that we could finally have some sort tier system for a single console: a simple dock for those who want something cheap or don't care about performance much, a mid-range dock for those who want some improvement, and a baller dock for those who want 'the best'. Game wise, PC gaming has shown that scalable graphics are possible and not a wasteful use of compute performance.

Assuming any successor is well in the works by no though, and going by what technology Nintendo has used in the past, I reckon USB 4 has come too late for any successor.

 

[Sentenza]

The title and poll questions are so different.

And the options in the poll poorly thought as well.
My disinterest in a Switch OLED has nothing to do with the possibility that a Switch 2 may or may not be on the horizon.

 

[UniformDeliverance]

Nah.

If they were going to launch a Switch 2 they would have done so in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.
They usually announce their new console about a year before releasing it, and there hasn't been anything but Nintendo execs claiming "there's still so much life left on the platform". There hasn't been anything in Nintendo's investor reports suggesting there's new hardware, either.

Takashi Mochisuki probably did break the story about a planned Switch 2 back in 2019 (and then again in 2020), but then covid came and the lockdowns printed so much money to Nintendo that they thought why give a shit and instead just made demanding games available through streaming.


It looks like making new hardware is becoming an inconvenience to Nintendo, and they see it as something that comes in the way of selling software.
I think they'll be the first ones to leave the hardware race and become a software company.

Sure, there were some leaks about a "nvn2" SoC early this year, supposedly with an Ampere GPU and DLSS, but nothing came out of it. Perhaps Nvidia was counting on the ARM acquisition to avoid royalties or something, and they're the ones who canceled the console. Who knows..


Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

This is not true. The switch was announced in October 2016, then launched March 2017. Nintendo likely won’t want to discourage hardware sales by having a long gap between announcing and releasing.

 

[daclynk]

Nah.

If they were going to launch a Switch 2 they would have done so in 2021 or 2022 at the latest.
They usually announce their new console about a year before releasing it, and there hasn't been anything but Nintendo execs claiming "there's still so much life left on the platform". There hasn't been anything in Nintendo's investor reports suggesting there's new hardware, either.

Takashi Mochisuki probably did break the story about a planned Switch 2 back in 2019 (and then again in 2020), but then covid came and the lockdowns printed so much money to Nintendo that they thought why give a shit and instead just made demanding games available through streaming.


It looks like making new hardware is becoming an inconvenience to Nintendo, and they see it as something that comes in the way of selling software.
I think they'll be the first ones to leave the hardware race and become a software company.

Sure, there were some leaks about a "nvn2" SoC early this year, supposedly with an Ampere GPU and DLSS, but nothing came out of it. Perhaps Nvidia was counting on the ARM acquisition to avoid royalties or something, and they're the ones who canceled the console. Who knows..


Regardless, with hardware like the Steam Deck and its derivatives I don't think there's any real need for a new Nintendo console. They can just release their games on PC and make more money.

 

[Banjo64]

Switch 2 is not coming in 2023 IMO. Still selling like hot cakes. I think announcement in March 2024, release November 2024.

I’d buy the Oled now. It’s the best Switch model by a mile and feels like a premium product in hand. You’d be able to sell it for £100+ when the time comes to upgrade anyway. Play some Splatoon 3/Tears of the Kingdom and chill.

 

[ShakenG]

Voted no. Dont see it happening next year. Whenever it does come, i just want a new Golden Sun.

 

[HofT]

Just going to be some PS4 level hardware, trash.

Call me when Nintendo makes real hardware again.

I sincerely miss the Gamecube days.

Thing is, this generation games will forever be impacted by last gen because of the Xbox Series S.
So, Nintendo making a ps4 level hybrid console makes the most sense. They don't need to go any higher. They'll get every 3rd party multiplatform game without much difference between current gen consoles. Sure, you won't get 4k/30fps or 1080p/60 fps but it'll look good enough.

 

[sinnergy]

No.

 

[boomcrab]

I just got an oled switch in October and its been great. I never had a switch before so as a first one with the current library I've been pretty pleased.
I definitely doubt the switch successor will be next year, maybe 2024 at the absolute earliest. Switch still sells well I don't think Nintendo is going to rush that out when the current models are still making money.
Also, I know some of these posts here are mentioning a Tears of the Kingdom release along with the new hardware, but I feel as though the next Mario makes much for sense for this. The movie is coming out, it's been over 5 years since the last game, it seems time to announce the next mario project and for it to release sometime in 2024 along with switch 2

 

[xClout]

BoTW2 + Switch 2 pack.

 

[Rykan]

So should I buy an OLED early in the New Year when it might be further discounted before Switch 2 is announced? Am I right that discounts are substantive evidence of Nintendo nextgen coming in 2023?

Advise me GAF. Poll assumes Switch 2 comes out in 2024.

I'm going to just answer this part of your question instead: If you're interested in buying a Switch OLED, just buy it. Don't let a potential Switch successor stop you. There have been no good indications that new hardware is going to be releasing next year, and we're also in the new era of consoles, where hardware shortages are no longer temporary and are the new norm. There's a very good chance that you won't be able to buy the Switch 2 for several years after it has come out, especially if its popularity is anything like the original Switch.

So I suggest to get it. Worst case you can sell the Switch OLED used with like a 50$ - 100$ loss if the new one is BC.

 

[fermcr]

I honestly don't understand why people love the Switch so much. Besides 3 or 4 games, there's nothing really interesting about the console.

 

[Nautilus]

Just buy it. The Switch is worth every euro