The only one that has a chance is Starfield and that's because its a new IP that is trying to do something revolutionary.
Space open world game, it has a huge potential if it nails it. Can you imagine a well made space open world exploration based game? with the right gameplay, the right physics and atmosphere?
The sense of exploration, the sense of the unknown and the mystery, the sense and the scope of the possible world, the sense of the imagination goes beyond any other genre imo.
However it is very hard to get right, and Bethesda recent record is actually bad.
Todd Howard and Bethesda have good experience at making open world games but they always sucked at writing good dialogue or good questline and stories, or even making good characters, if they can nail it in this game then they can elevate it higher. That with the sandbox gameplay and open world they usually do, it will be a game that will storm gaming scene.
Elden Ring is a masterpiece and one of the best games ever made, but its still a game we can grasp and understand quickly because we are used to its formula.
Breath of the Wild 2 may improve upon the first but again we have seen this before and based on the trailers its not going to revolutionize the game scene again so i doubt it will win.
God of War Ragnarok is just previous God of War but with continuation on the story so im almost sure this will not win.
Stalker 2 never had a chance imo, but its not getting released i think.
Horizon has no chance.
So the way i see it, is its either a new game that surprises everyone, which is small chance, or Starfield actually delivers (even if it score less Metacritic it can still win if it delivered), or Elden Ring to celebrate the ultimate Fromsoftware Game.
I'm loving Elden Ring right now, 35 hours so far, playing it crazy everyday, enjoying it a lot, i think if no miracles happen it should win the awards, i have a lot of doubt on Bethesda, no footage nothing so far and their recent track record is not promising for me, so for me Elden Ring reigns supreme this year. Fromsoft has (maybe) become my favorite developer.